Tesla's new hardware 4.0 is close, but don't expect retrofits
Tesla
Tesla's upcoming FSD hardware, hardware 4.0, is nearing completion, and although there is limited information about it, it sounds like it'll bring significant improvements. It's yet to be known when the new hardware will debut, but it is clear Tesla will not be retrofitting the existing fleet.
"The cost and difficulty of retrofitting hardware 3 with Hardware 4 is quite significant. So, it would not be, I think, economically feasible to do so."
Musk said Hardware 3 is five years old but, "is still the most efficient inference computer in the world."
What Will Be In Hardware 4.0
It's believed that the new hardware will use 5-megapixel cameras; the current cameras are 1.2 megapixels. Also, some leaked pictures appear to reduce the amount of front-facing cameras from three to two and allow for heaters and fans.
The higher-resolution cameras will give Autopilot a significant advantage when trying to determine objects that are further away because of the additional pixels. An object that is 100 or 200 feet away may only be made up of a few pixels, but with almost 5x the resolution, the newer cameras will be able to more accurately determine what the object is. This is also true for everything else, such as the curvature of the upcoming turn.
In addition to the cameras, we know that there will be a new FSD computer which is expected to be about 4x more powerful than the current FSD computer in hardware 3.0. Part of this additional processing power will no doubt go toward processing the additional 32 million pixels that the newer cameras will provide.
However, hardware 4.0 will be about more than just a faster computer and better cameras. It is also expected to include an HD radar, which Elon Musk has talked about in the past and has been seen in Tesla's FCC filings. The addition of a high-definition radar could provide a significant advantage to FSD by sensing objects that cameras alone can't.
The difference between radar and HD imaging radars
fierceelectronics.com
When Musk talks about the upgrade from hardware 3.0 to hardware 4.0 not being feasible, that likely means there may be even more to it than we already know. This could just be due to the new radar, new power, or space requirements for the new computer, but it's also possible that there could be more to hardware 4.0 than we know.
We know that Tesla's Robotaxi is already in development and this is a vehicle that is expected to be completely driverless. Tesla won't have the convenience of having a driver behind the wheel here. This could mean that Tesla may need to add additional hardware that we haven't heard about it. This could be different camera placements, or something entirely different.
What we know for sure is that hardware 4.0 will include higher-res cameras, a faster computer and likely an HD radar, but there could be even more that makes it infeasible to retrofit older vehicles.
Elon Talking About Hardware 4
The video below is queued up to the part where Elon talks about FSD hardware 4.0 (segment begins at 30:10).
Hardware 3.0 Will Be Capable of FSD
Musk put the argument into perspective for those who may want to wait. "Hardware 3 will not be as good as Hardware 4, but I'm confident that Hardware 3 will so far exceed the average -- the safety of the average human." He then broke it down further, "let's say, for argument's sake, if Hardware 3 can be, say, 200% or 300% safer than human, Hardware 4 might be 500% or 600%." In fact, stats show that Teslas operating with Autopilot engaged at 10 times safer, and that is with Hardware 3.
Will Teslas With HW3 Really Be Autonomous?
Listening to Musk's choice of words is interesting, he seems to have steered away from words he may have used in the past, such as referring to level 5 autonomy, or using the words robotaxi, or autonomous driving. Instead, he chose to say hardware 3 would exceed the safety of an average human. That could mean that Tesla's current FSD implementation will always require a driver behind the wheel, but the combo of Tesla's FSD system and the driver as a backup would be multiple times safer than a human.
Tesla has to be Careful
The CEO had a tightrope to walk when talking about the existing hardware and what the future system will look like. You may recall in late 2022 when demand for Teslas started to slow down. Many observers believe it was due to the impending tax credits the Inflation Reduction Act would provide for buyers of electric vehicles. Tesla cut prices for the last few days of 2022 to match tax credits, but only for consumers who took delivery before the end of the year.
Now, a new dilemma, how many consumers will wait for the latest hardware? There is no timeline for it, the only vehicle we know it will be in is the Cybertruck, but the Cybertruck won't start production until this summer.
FSD Hardware 5.0
Musk has a point. Hardware 3 is fantastic, but with a new one that is twice as good on the horizon, it losses some exceptionality. Then there is this next line by Musk, "with Hardware 4 coming and then Hardware 5 beyond that where there are significant leaps." So yes, we already have talk of Hardware 5. However, this is not expected for several years.
Once again, mark your calendar for March 1, 2023. Tesla is hosting Investor Day, and along with more information on the next-generation vehicle, we may get more details on hardware 4.0 and what it will contain.
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Tesla has started offering Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) in China via a subscription starting at 699 yuan per month — equivalent to about $98.5 USD. It’s the first time Tesla owners in the country will have access to features such as auto lane change, Autopark, Smart Summon, and others.
It’s not clear whether Tesla will begin to offer EAP as a subscription in other regions as well.
The move is seen as the first step towards the expansion of Tesla’s full self driving to China as other markets outside North America wait for the arrival of the FSD software. Yesterday, Tesla chief executive Elon Musk said the version 12 is “ready for supervised FSD in LHD countries” while RHD countries such as Australia, UK or Japan “will take a bit longer”.
FSD in China
China giant Baidu announced last Monday that it will provide all Tesla vehicles in China its latest version of Baidu Maps starting in May.
This week, Tesla celebrated its 10th anniversary in the Chinese Market where it has a total of 1.7 million owners — Tesla’s second largest market. Elon Musk recently tweeted that Tesla may soon offer full self-driving in China by saying “It may be possible very soon”.
FSD in Europe
On Friday, the Senior Advisor of the Swedish Transport Transportation, Rikard Fredriksson, shared on LinkedIn that he had been demoed the FSD technology in Germany with a Tesla employee. The moment marks the first official use of the assisted driving software in Europe.
Impressive smooth and natural driving
LinkedIn Post by Rikard Fredriksson after the FSD Demo in Germany
In the recent earnings call, Elon Musk said Tesla has over 300 million miles that has been driven with FSD v12 since it was launched just last month. He added that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.
Tesla said it has been investing in the hardware and software ecosystems necessary to achieve vehicle autonomy and a ride-hailing service. The company is confident that it can establish a scalable and profitable autonomous driving business by employing a vision-only architecture.
Tesla has recently reduced the pricing of its “Full Self-Driving” software in the US, from $12,000 to $8,000, and in Canada from CA$16,000 to $11,000. This price reduction follows a 50% cut in the subscription fee announced earlier this month.
Electric vehicle maker Rivian Automotive has announced that it will open up its Rivian Adventure Network (RAN) chargers to Teslas and other EVs later this year.
The Rivian Adventure Network is a comprehensive network of fast-charging sites very similar to Tesla’s own Superchargers. According to Rivian, the Rivian Adventure Network is powered by 100% renewable energy.
New Rivian Chargers
In a post on X, Rivian added that it would introduce new chargers with a tap-to-pay experience to support “a wide range of EVs across a variety of battery voltages.”
Expanding RAN chargers and introducing new tap-to-pay chargers is a clear indication that Rivian is trying to increase customer convenience while ratcheting up its brand value.
All Rivian vehicles and most other EVs still use the CCS connector until they transition to NACS in the next few years. These new chargers will likely include a combination of NACS and CCS connectors to support Rivian’s current and future vehicles that will come equipped with an NACS port.
Charging a Tesla at a Rivian Charge
With over 50,000 Supercharger stalls, Tesla operates the biggest fast-charging network in the world. And 25,000 of these are located in the United States alone. The simplicity of charging at a Supercharger is part of the appeal. Tesla takes care of everything from initiating charging to billing. It ends up being no different than charging at home.
Tesla’s Supercharger network has a stellar reputation, mostly due to its high charging speed and reliability, which Tesla closely monitors in real-time. Major electric vehicle makers will start switching to NACS in the next few years and considering that the Supercharger network is highly trusted, one can see more non-Tesla EVs lining up at Superchargers soon. Giving Tesla owners more choice of where to charge may be crucial to combat congestion.
Rivian currently has over 400 charging stalls across 22 states but plans to expand to more than 600 chargers.
Making Rivian Chargers Just as Simple
While Rivian plans to add a tap-to-pay terminal to its new chargers, it’ll be difficult to beat the convenience of Superchargers for Tesla owners. After Rivian opens up its chargers to other EVs, Tesla owners would need to buy and use CCS to NACS adapters to charge at these networks, although not every Tesla supports the adapter. You can check if your vehicle supports the Tesla adapter.
To simplify the process for Tesla owners, Tesla would also need to interface with Rivian’s chargers to make billing as seamless as it is on its own Supercharger network.
Rivians Charging at Superchargers
Rivian has already begun shipping its customers NACS-to-CCS adapters to charge their vehicles at Tesla Supercharger.
Rivian officially got access to Tesla’s Supercharger network in March 2024. For now, only two companies–Ford and Rivian–have received access to charge at more than 15,000 Tesla Supercharger stalls. More companies like GM, Polestar, and Volvo will get access the following spring.
But Rivian is not stopping at NACS-to-CCS connectors. The Tesla rival plans to switch completely to the NACS port in 2025, at which point they’ll provide their owners a CCS to NACS adapter.
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