Tesla appears ready to have FSD Beta make an international release
Not a Tesla App
Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) is reportedly on the verge of a major international expansion, with China being a significant focus, but other countries may also be nearing release. This speculation is fueled by various indicators pointing towards Tesla's preparation for a global release of FSD Beta beyond its current availability in North America.
Last week, we broke the news that Tesla's FSD v12 was released to employees. This could be the version that Tesla aims to release into additional markets.
Key Indicators of International Expansion
Tesla has begun translating FSD Beta release notes into multiple languages. This includes the release notes such an explanation of FSD Beta, FSD Beta Suspension, and Driving Visualization Improvements, however, the technical release notes that change from version to version remain mostly untranslated. These release notes are now available in various languages including German, Danish, Italian and others. This selective translation process suggests a preparation phase for introducing FSD Beta to international markets, although not in its current version.
Developments in China
The prospect of Tesla's FSD Beta entering the Chinese market has been a topic of discussion for some time. Recent observations indicated that Tesla China's website briefly featured references to FSD Beta, although these were later removed, adding to the speculation.
According to reports from Chinese media, including China Fund News, Tesla is actively moving forward with plans to release FSD in the Chinese market.
A joint notice from several Chinese government departments mentioned that vehicles with Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous capabilities might be allowed for road tests in certain areas. This development aligns well with Tesla's potential plans to test FSD Beta in China.
Infrastructure Developments
In 2021, Tesla established a data center in Shanghai to gather data from its domestic operations. Additionally, Tesla has formed an FSD operations team and a data labeling team in Shanghai. Despite these developments, there are hurdles to overcome before FSD Beta's release in China, such as data collection qualifications.
Tesla has not provided a specific timeline for the FSD Beta release in China, but the company has confirmed ongoing preparations. This aligns with recent changes observed in Tesla's online manuals in China.
Tesla's FSD Beta is poised for an international rollout, with China being a primary target. The translation of release notes, updates to owner manuals, and recent government notices all point toward Tesla's preparation for an international release. While challenges remain, the groundwork laid by Tesla, particularly in China, indicates significant progress in bringing FSD Beta to international markets.
Below is part of the German release notes for FSD Beta, which read:
Autonomes Fahren (Beta)"
Sie können die Funktion Autonomes Fahren (Beta) aktivieren. Tippen Sie hierzu auf ‚Fahrzeug‘ > ‚Autopilot‘ > ‚Autonomes Fahren (Beta)‘ und folgen Sie den Anweisungen.
Die Funktion Autonomes Fahren befindet sich in einer frühen, eingeschränkten Beta-Phase und muss daher mit zusätzlicher Vorsicht verwendet werden. Da sie möglicherweise im schlechtesten Moment falsch reagiert, müssen Sie Ihre Hände immer am Steuer lassen und genau auf die Straße achten. Werden Sie nicht nachlässig. Wenn Vollautonomes Fahren aktiviert ist, wird Ihr Fahrzeug Spurwechsel auch abseits der Autobahn durchführen, Ihrer Navigationsroute an Abzweigungen folgen sowie um andere Fahrzeuge und Objekte herum steuern und nach rechts und links abbiegen. Verwenden Sie die Funktion Autonomes Fahren im eingeschränkten Beta-Modus nur, wenn Sie jederzeit auf die Straße achten und sofort eingreifen können, insbesondere an uneinsehbaren Ecken, beim Überqueren von Kreuzungen und in Fahrsituationen mit wenig Platz.
Ihr Fahrzeug nutzt Tesla Vision! Beachten Sie, dass für Tesla Vision auch einige vorübergehende Einschränkungen gelten: Der Folgeabstand ist auf 2-7 und die Höchstgeschwindigkeit des Autopiloten auf 85 mph begrenzt.
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During Tesla’s Q1 earnings call, Tesla talked about its plan for its upcoming robotaxi network and even showed off a design for the app that would allow customers to request vehicles, much like Uber and Lyft.
While Tesla plans to unveil the robotaxi, officially now called CyberCab this August, a true autonomous taxi is at the very least, a couple of years away. So why is Tesla so eager to show off an app and start offering a Tesla taxi service?
in 2023 Uber had a revenue of 37.28 billion, while Lyft had a much smaller revenue of 4.4 billion. For comparison, Tesla’s revenue last year was 96.77 billion. A taxi service, even one operated by humans can be incredibly lucrative. While Tesla’s ultimate goal may be an automated taxi service, they may be itching to get into the space.
Tesla’s robotaxi was initially supposed to be a taxi service owners would lend their vehicles to. While that’s still the plan, Tesla wants their own vehicles to be a part of the service as well.
Will the Robotaxi Service Start With Tesla Drivers?
Tesla comparing themselves to Airbnb and Uber during their earnings call is intriguing. While Tesla can start producing robotaxis almost whenever they want, it’d likely be smart to wait until autonomy is solved so they’re not limiting themselves to current FSD hardware.
While full autonomy is likely several years away, Tesla seems to be eager to make this push toward a Tesla-owned service. Is Tesla thinking about operating their own Uber-like service? Tesla could be thinking about releasing their future robotaxi app and service in “beta,” letting current Tesla owners operate their own vehicles on the service.
This could result in several benefits for Tesla, not only letting them test their service but also opening up another revenue stream. This would allow Tesla to start operating their robotaxi network as soon as this year, and then slowly replace drivers and owner vehicles with Tesla-owned robotaxis.
Tesla Shows Off Robotaxi App
Tesla showed off it's robotaxi app
At the earnings call, Tesla also showed off a design of their robotaxi app. While it feels early to design an app for a service that could be years away, Tesla appears to be preparing itself for the future and getting customers excited about the prospect.
Tesla showed off five screens of the app, essentially showing how you’d request a robotaxi, how you can view its progress, and control certain features of the vehicle. Through the various screens, you can see most of Tesla’s Autopilot features coming to fruition in terms of autonomy, such as summon, self-driving and eventually Autopark.
Summon - Much like Tesla has re-thought the interior of a car and so many features, you can see the same mechanics applied to the app. To request a vehicle, you simply hold down a summon button and you’ll be presented with an estimate of when a vehicle will arrive.
Set Preferences and Destination - On the second screen, you can see the vehicle’s current location on a 3D map, possibly alluding to future FSD visualizations. It also lets you set your destination and set the climate temperature to your preference.
Trip Progress - While you’re traveling in the vehicle, you’ll be able to view trip information as well as set entertainment options.
Recap
Tesla had a lot to talk about during their earnings call and specifically about the Robotaxi — more information was revealed than ever before.
While there are various things at play to make a service like this come together, we can easily separate them out into separate components.
There’s the robotaxi itself, which Musk recently said would be similar to Tesla’s next-gen vehicle without a steering wheel. However, during this earnings call, he revealed that Tesla will save its new “unboxed” manufacturing process for the robotaxi and use a more traditional method for their next vehicle.
Then there’s FSD itself, while it’s crucial to operating a driverless robotaxi network, it’s not necessary to start a Tesla taxi service.
The last piece is the ride-hailing component itself and how it’s managed, and Tesla was happy to show this off, which makes us believe that it may be closer to reality than many think. While Tesla needs all three of these components to come together to operate a true robotaxi network, they piece them together separately, much like they’ve done with Autopilot. Initially, Tesla only released auto-steer then slowly added on summon, Autopark and city driving.
When we look back at Tesla five years from now, we may very well look back to this earnings call and say this was the pivotal moment when Tesla started transitioning to a services company.
Tesla has invested billions of dollars over the years toward vehicle autonomy. The mission continues as Elon Musk and Tesla now prepare to unveil their ride-hailing product, Robotaxi this August. Or, as Musk called it on Tuesday, Tesla CyberCab.
Early Days
Five years ago, during Tesla’s Autonomy Investor Day in April 2019, Elon Musk said he felt “very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla in the following year [2020]”. At the time, Musk added a bolder claim, predicting that Tesla wouldn’t even make cars with steering wheels or pedals by 2022. While timeliness may not be Musk’s strong suit, he has a track record for getting things done that others were unwilling to try or thought were impossible. Musk later admitted he can be overly optimistic and said “sometimes I am not on time, but I get it done.”
Now, 5 years later, we have the robotaxi unveiling scheduled for August 8th. After the release of FSD v12, it’s clear that we’re much closer to autonomy than we were in 2019, although FSD v12 is still a far cry from full autonomy.
While Tesla still has the robotaxi unveiling scheduled for August, Tesla announced yesterday that it’d be prioritizing a simpler “next-gen” model that could be released by early 2025.
Latest Updates
On the conference call, Musk added that Tesla now has over 300 million miles driven with FSD v12 since it was launched just last month. He added that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.
Tesla said it has been investing in the hardware and software ecosystems necessary to achieve vehicle autonomy and a ride-hailing service. The company is confident that it can establish a scalable and profitable autonomous driving business by employing a vision-only architecture.
think of it [Tesla] as combination of Airbnb and Uber meaning that there will be some number of cars that Tesla owns itself and operates
Tesla = Uber + AirBnb
Later on, Elon Musk unveiled that the new service will operate and result in a mix between Uber and Airbnb where the Tesla driver decides if and when he wants his Tesla to be used and by whom. Tesla stated:
“We believe the Tesla software experience is best-in-class across all our products, and plan to seamlessly layer ride-hailing into the Tesla App.”
Tesla’s CEO clarified that the owners will be able to add or remove their car from the fleet “whenever they want” adding that it will be up to them to decide if they want to only let the car be used “by friends and family or only by five-star users or by anyone at any time”. The flexible program will, just like Airbnb, allow the owners to take the car out of the market when they want.
The upcoming ride-hailing service will enable users to easily request a Tesla vehicle, control the car's temperature, monitor its real-time location, and adjust the audio system. The only question is when.
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