Musk shared details on two distinct new versions of FSD that are currently in development - one of which is coming soon and another that promises another leap in FSD’s abilities.
It’s a new version of software, but will merge to main branch soon.
We have a more advanced model in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, but still requires a lot of polishing.
While the Robotaxis running around Austin are identical to new customer vehicles, they’re not running the same FSD build on customer vehicles. These Robotaxi Model Ys are running a newer FSD build.
While the exact version of FSD is unknown, Musk said that it’ll be released to customers soon. However, more interestingly, he also shared details on a newer version that’s coming next.
Musk said that this version will also arrive to customers later this year. This 4.5 times model appears to be in a relatively early alpha stage. This jump in parameters is even larger than the “3X increase” that’s detailed in the Upcoming Improvements of the FSD V13 changelog. Other improvements listed in the FSD v13 changelog were a 3x context length improvement, audio inputs, improvements to reward predictions and false braking, and support for destination options when arriving at the destinations. However, it’s not clear whether any of these others are included.
It’s a new version of software, but will merge to main branch soon.
We have a more advanced model in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, but still requires a lot of polishing.
The increase in parameters allows FSD to understand the world with greater nuance, which in turn means smoother and more human-like decision-making and path planning. It also means FSD will become more capable of handling edge cases or inclement weather, a stressor noted by Tesla’s Executive team during the Q1 2025 Earnings Call.
Increasing the context length allows the vehicle to consider a longer history when making decisions. Context length and responsiveness are closely linked: a shorter context length enables quicker reactions, while a longer context length provides more informed decisions but introduces latency. The context length in terms of FSD is measured in seconds, where the vehicle uses just the past few seconds of video data to make a decision.
Retraining FSD
~4.5X increase in params should be ready for wide release later this year.
Super frugal use of memory bandwidth, caching exactly what is needed & squeezing microseconds out of everything are needed to maintain the frame rate.
A more powerful AI model requires more computational power, and Elon provided some more insights into what exactly that means for the Tesla AI team. Frugally using memory bandwidth and squeezing every last drop of performance from AI4’s hardware is necessary to maintain its ability to keep up with the environment around it.
Musk says that this new, larger FSD version will require Tesla to retrain FSD from the ground up. Tesla is already planning on expanding its compute nodes with a second Cortex Supercomputer cluster. It takes an astronomical amount of data, time, and energy to train FSD, and with a major update on the horizon, it seems like Tesla has been putting the lion’s share of compute into this new build.
FSD Timeline
Musk laid out a relatively rough timeline for these new FSD improvements. Remember, with all things Elon, two weeks could very well be two months.
Soon: The current, tried and tested build that’s running on Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet in Austin will be merged into the main public FSD (Supervised) build. This build will be the next major build for customers. This could be FSD V13.3. It’ll be a step up, but not as large as the next version.
Late 2025: The new 4.5X parameter model is slated for a wider release several months from now. We’ll tentatively call this FSD V14 - because it sounds like an entirely new version being built from the ground up.
This is a much-needed update from Elon and Tesla on where FSD is headed and when. It’s been more than eight months since the last Autonomy Roadmap in October 2024, even if these updates are encoded in “Elon Time.”
The streets will change very rapidly.
Autonomous cars will be very common throughout the world in 2 to 3 years.
Elon also touched on the ultimate goals and the long-term business plan for FSD. With FSD already being considerably safer than the average human driver, alongside its superhuman reflexes and precision, Tesla will be well-positioned to license FSD.
Tesla AI/Autopilot could probably beat the best human around a track already.
Eventually, it really won’t be a contest at all. Human reflexes cannot match machines.
As FSD and the Robotaxi network become widespread and other autonomy solutions fail to materialize in a financially prudent fashion, other companies will naturally turn to Tesla for autonomy.
It’s Tesla’s golden moment to do all it can to implement the dream that it’s been striving for for over a decade.
With a new FSD version on its way to customers and a fully rebuilt version on the horizon, there’s a lot for everyone to look forward to.
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Tesla has expanded its accessory lineup once again, this time with a new, sportier option for interior customization. Owners of the refreshed Model 3 (2024+) can now purchase a Dashboard Décor Wing in Carbon Fiber directly from Tesla in North America, for $300 USD ($415 CAD).
For now, this product is only available in North America, but as usual, we expect it to roll out to other regions in the future.
A Sleek, Modern Look
This new trim piece replaces the standard textile dash with a high-quality carbon fiber accent, giving the minimalist interior a more aggressive and performance-oriented aesthetic.
According to Tesla’s official description, the part is dark gray and black carbon fiber that is cross-woven and finished with epoxy. That means that it won’t just look good - it’ll be resilient to whatever is left on your dash, or to the sun and heat.
Installation Included
A benefit of this official accessory is the all-inclusive price. The pricing includes not only the carbon fiber dashboard wing but also covers shipping to your preferred Service Center, where a professional installation of the new wing will be completed for you. This provides a seamless, factory-quality upgrade without the hassle or fitment issues of third-party alternatives.
Based on the service manuals, the replacement is expected to take approximately 90 minutes, meaning it should be a relatively quick visit to install it once it arrives at your local service center.
This new carbon fiber decor is the second official dashboard option that Tesla has offered for the refreshed Model 3. It joins the previously released Alcantara Décor Wing (also available for the Model Y), which adds a softer and cozier feel. Owners now have a distinct choice directly from Tesla: a plush and premium Alcantara, or a sleek and sporty Carbon Fiber.
Tesla’s recent Q2 2025 Earnings Call provided one of the clearest roadmaps for FSD as of late. While not as detailed as Tesla’s roadmaps from late 2024, these updates give us an idea of Tesla’s future plans for FSD.
Tesla’s comments on FSD during their Q&A session covered everything from a major upcoming FSD update to the latest status on introducing FSD to new territories and when Tesla expects FSD Unsupervised to be ready for customers.
FSD Improvements, Reduced Nag
The biggest news for owners is that a major update is on the way. The learnings and improvements from the Robotaxi FSD builds that power the network in Austin are being integrated into the main consumer FSD Supervised branch for customer vehicles. According to Elon, this will result in a “step change improvement” in capability.
The release involves carefully validating the improvements honed for Austin, so that they don’t cause regressions when deployed more broadly.
Elon once again touched on safety and supervision, a.k.a. the “nag.” Tesla’s teams have noted that many drivers disengage FSD in order to fiddle with controls—whether changing a song, changing their destination, or just glancing at their phone. They will then re-engage FSD once they are done, all to avoid an FSD strike. This is significantly less safe than just leaving FSD on the entire time while they look away. Musk discussed this before, but says there will be additional improvements. Tesla is working to reduce the nag and increase the window in which users can look away from the road. This improvement is expected to be included in the next build.
There’s more than just new capabilities and better controls on their way for the fleet, though. Elon mentioned an up to 10x improvement in parameters. Tesla previously said they were working on 4-4.5x the parameter count, but this newer number is far bigger. The challenge they are beginning to encounter is the limited available memory space for FSD on AI4 computers. The model needs to run in an optimized, predefined hardware package, and Tesla must trim their training models to fit within that package.
So far, they’ve been more than capable - and the indication of a 10x parameter increase is a doubling of what Tesla previously thought was possible. With a parameter increase that’s this big, FSD will be far more capable of handling edge cases, while also reacting much more human-like than ever before.
Release Timelines
During the call, Tesla indicated that a customer build is planned to be released sometime in Q3 2025, which would put us roughly in the July to September timeframe. They are actively working on this build at this point, and the key here is testing and validation, which could speed up or delay this newer FSD build.
That means Tesla will need to use its validation fleets (not the Robotaxi ones, but its other engineering vehicles) to validate the latest builds of FSD in various challenging areas across the country, ensuring there are no regressions in capability.
Once that is done, the build will be sent out to employees and the limited number of Wave 1 Early Access testers. If both groups green-light the release, it will begin a roll-out to the usual major Tesla influencers, and then we’ll see it begin rolling out to customers following their feedback.
Assuming that Tesla is validating and regression testing today, we can expect a public rollout around September, but if they’re still training the customer build, then it could be even later.
FSD Unsupervised
The Austin Robotaxi program is serving as the proving ground for FSD (Unsupervised), which will eventually allow for a truly driverless experience. The successful launch and rapid expansion of the Austin Network are the key steps that Tesla is taking to validate the safety and reliability of the system.
Tesla stated that it expects to launch FSD Unsupervised to certain US cities by the end of 2025. The key points here are select US cities, although expect other stipulations as well. While the hardware used in the Model Y Robotaxis is the same as other models (except for that second communication unit), not all models are trained equally. There’s a reason Tesla is using the Model Y for their Robotaxis — it performs notably better on FSD than other models.
Tesla closely validates its Robotaxi geofenced area. So the select cities may very well be those that have been validated and in which the Robotaxi already operates. Tesla could also limit it to the Model Y initially and even block off tricky intersections, much like they do with the Robotaxi.
Even then, getting FSD Unsupervised in customers’ hands will be a major milestone for Tesla, even if it’s very limited initially.
Global Rollout
The call also provided a fairly concise status update on Robotaxi and FSD expansion into other key markets, making it clear that the next steps aren’t on Tesla conducting country-specific training, but instead regulatory hurdles.
For Europe, Tesla is still working with the Netherlands for regulatory approval. Once their approval is secured, they’ll then need to obtain approval from the EU and the UNECE. This is a lengthy, multi-step approval process to secure an exemption for Tesla from the UNECE AV regulations. Elon is hopeful and confident that it could be approved as soon as the end of Q3, if not by the end of 2025.
In China, FSD is currently limited to AI4 vehicles, and Tesla is working on FSD for HW3 vehicles. The challenge in China is that each update requires regulatory approval and testing on each vehicle, making regulatory approvals a time-consuming process with each update.
Wrapping Up
After months without updates, it’s great to hear Tesla’s plans for FSD. It appears that AI4 owners can expect a major update in a couple of months, while Tesla continues to address regulatory issues in Europe and China. We also received our first concrete piece of information on when Tesla plans to roll out FSD Unsupervised to customers. This will likely be a much more gradual process than Tesla suggests during their earnings call, but each step brings us closer to true autonomy.