Tesla Shares New Details on FSD Unsupervised, Robotaxi, Potential FSD Price Hike During Q1 2025 Earnings Call

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

In case you missed Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings call last night, or just want to see the cliff notes, we’ve got you fully covered. While Tesla called this event a “Company Update” on their Investor Relations website, we covered all the usual aspects of a regular earnings call.

Tesla had a rough Q1, but managed to pull through even in the face of one of the most financially difficult quarters in recent memory. There’s also a lot of exciting news as Tesla shared updates and key information on some of its upcoming products.

Tesla actually started this event relatively on time, with the call beginning just seven minutes after the scheduled start time. If you prefer to listen to the call, you can listen below with the call starting at the 7 minute, 9 second mark.

FSD Supervised & Unsupervised

  • FSD Supervised launched in China, received positive reception.

    • Tesla launched FSD in China without access to country-specific data, and it is performing extremely well.

    • They expect this will make it easier to launch elsewhere.

    • FSD Supervised for Europe still on track for 2025.

  • FSD Unsupervised is now running Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertrucks from the production line to the outbound logistics lots at Fremont and Giga texas.

  • As of this quarter, FSD has been driving people in North America and China for 7.7 Million miles per day.

  • Tesla will consider pricing options for Unsupervised FSD vs Supervised FSD

    • In the meantime, Tesla plans to gradually lighten the supervision requirements

    • Executive team believes FSD is too cheap at $99/mo as it currently stands

  • Glare, Sand, Dust, Fog

    • Cameras are not fully blinded by glare or other obstacles

    • Tesla’s photon-count analysis happens before digital signal processing - the image you see on the dash may be washed out, but FSD can see fine.

  • Snow and Inclement Weather

    • These are still a challenge for scaling out to areas that experience snow.

    • Tesla is looking at implementing localized parameters to deal with snow or other localized conditions in the future

      • Not essential, but a “nice-to-have”

      • These parameters will be focused on improving reliability for certain tasks, like driving in snow

  • Waymo

    • Tesla doesn’t see Waymo as a challenger

    • LIDAR is expensive, can’t solve many problems

    • Pure vision is the key (along with audio now)

    • Tesla isn’t just doing a software solution and attaching hardware to a pre-existing vehicle, Tesla is building the vehicles ground-up with autonomy in mind

  • Validation is still a challenge, due to edge cases.

    • QA fleet is driving in Austin, and can go many days without an intervention

    • Difficult to tell whether improving or regressing

    • Deeper and broader simulation systems are being built

    • Seeing an intervention every 10,000 miles means they need 10,000 miles of data on average to address it

    • Need as much data as possible - 10,000 miles is the average distance covered by a driver in North America in a year

    • The executive team noted that Chinese FSD testers are doing a fantastic job testing edge cases

Unsupervised FSD & Robotaxi Fleet

  • Tesla is on track for the pilot launch of Robotaxi in Austin for June 2025.

    • These will move the financial needle in the 2nd half of 2026.

    • The first vehicles will be Model Y’s, not Cybercabs.

    • Aim is to start in Austin and roll out elsewhere in the United States by the end of the year

    • Focus is to ramp quickly, and have millions of vehicles operating autonomously by the end of 2026.

  • Remote Support for robotaxi fleet could happen, not 100%

  • 10-20 vehicles on Day 1 for Robotaxi fleet

    • Scale-up will happen slowly

    • By the end of June or early July, anyone will be able to go to Austin and use a robotaxi

  • Vast majority of Tesla’s existing fleet will be capable of Unsupervised FSD

    • Elon specifically mentioned the Model S, 3, X, and Y

    • This is the fourth event (We, Robot, Q4 Earnings 2024, All-Hands, and Q1 Earnings 2025) without mention of the Cybertruck being capable, likely meaning that FSD development for the Cybertruck is further behind as we’ve seen.

  • Tesla’s generalized solution to autonomy means that once they verify it works in a few North American locations, it should work in any North American city

    • Key limitation is regulatory approvals

    • This also applies for other areas of the world - the generalized solution will make it easy to apply it elsewhere

  • Tesla is providing autonomous supervised vehicles today that are capable of:

    • Cutting commute effort

    • Improving lives for customers with disabilities

    • Tesla’s executive team wants to get these stories out and get people to experience FSD

  • Unsupervised FSD should launch for customers in the US, ideally by end of year

    • Safety is a key concern, Tesla needs to continue reducing interventions per mile

    • Tesla will be careful with rolling this out outside of dedicated fleets

    • It must be meaningfully (10x or more, as per Q4 2024) safer than a human

    • Will likely be geofenced to specific cities or locations

  • Elon expects the first Model Y will drive itself from Fremont or Giga Texas all the way to a customer by the end of 2025

Affordable Vehicle

  • The plan for the new more affordable model (identified as a new vehicle), remains on schedule for production beginning in the first half of 2025.

    • These will utilize aspects of the next-generation platform as well as current platforms, and be produced on the same manufacturing lines as current vehicles.

    • This approach will result in less cost reduction, but will enable Tesla to manage capital expenditures.

  • This model will start production as soon as June and be in the market shortly thereafter.

    • Ramping will be slower than hoped due to global tariff and financial impacts

    • Production timeline is still on track overall

    • Tesla is aiming for a lower initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments

  • Tesla will use its existing lines - reducing the overall form factor difference between this new model and what Tesla already exists

    • Likely based on the Model 3 or Model Y

    • Will resemble the overall form and shape

Cybercab

  • Cybercab will use the unboxed manufacturing strategy, and is scheduled for volume production in 2026.

  • Sample production validation is ongoing now

    • First builds will happen near the end of Q2

    • Production is on-schedule at Giga Texas

    • No new building is being built, it will be built inside already planned space

  • Unboxed method is progressing well

    • It is the basis for the Cybercab’s manufacturing process

    • It lowers the cost of production and increases the level of automation considerably

    • Tesla is working on marrying large assemblies together, fixing vehicle ceiling connections, and recently completed corrosion testing

  • Unboxed methodology will eventually be incorporated into other lines

    • Cybertruck is already benefiting from some aspects of this method

  • Long term goal is a 5 second cycle time for Cybercab

    • Giga Shanghai currently has a 33 second cycle team for Model Y

Current Vehicles

  • Giga Texas produced its 400,00th vehicle in April, and Tesla launched the Cybertruck Long Range (RWD).

  • Giga Nevada achieved record battery pack production this quarter.

    • Model 3 and Model Y deliveries in the US (and Canada) are now made with 100% US-built battery packs.

  • Tesla achieved record orders in a single day in the Asia-Pacific region with the launch of the Refreshed Model Y.

    • This is the most competitive region for EVs, and a validation of Tesla’s cost structure and positioning.

  • Giga Berlin built its 500,000th Model Y this quarter.

  • Tesla has officially opened the first overseas market for the Cybertruck - Saudi Arabia.

  • Q1 is historically the worst quarter for auto sales, and the best quarter to do production swaps

    • Tesla used this as an opportunity to do the swap at all 4 factories around the world at the same time

    • Never been done before - especially as 1.1 million Model Y’s are built per year globally.

Optimus

  • Tesla’s Fremont factory is preparing production for the Optimus pilot line for 2025, and wider deployments of Optimus for internal Tesla use is expected this year.

  • There has been good progress on finalizing Optimus so far, still in prototyping stages

    • Tesla expects its pilot production line to begin running near the end of 2025

    • Several thousand units should be working in Tesla’s factories by the end of the year

    • Optimus ramp will be challenging, lots of new and unique components Tesla doesn’t make already

    • Optimus will use the AI4 computer

    • Shoulder actuators use permanent/rare earth magnets

      • Working with China to get a license for use

  • Goal is 1 million units per year by 2030

Batteries

  • The 4680 Cell (Cybercell) is IRA-complaint and eligible for the US Federal EV Rebate.

    • It is the lowest cost-per-kWh cell.

    • Tesla has diversified and protected the supply chain, and each component for the 4680 is sourced from at least two countries.

    • Lowest cost cell of any cell available on the market right now

    • Easy to build a flashy product that does one thing (e.g. charging fast) well, but difficult to scale it up and be profitable

  • Tesla’s lithium refining and cathode production plans will start production in 2025, moving critical battery production to the US.

    • Will be the biggest lithium refinery outside of China, and could potentially expand to be the biggest.

    • Cathode production will also make a big impact

    • Anode production or removing anodes entirely is being worked on

  • Tesla is no longer supply constrained for vehicle batteries, but is constrained on LFP batteries for North America due to tariffs.

Supply Chain

  • Tesla is continuing to localize supply chains where possible

    • Makes sense from a cost and logistics risk standpoint

      • Supply chains should be located on the continent of which the vehicle is built

    • Tesla is the least impacted car company in respect to tariffs

      • Places Tesla in a stronger position than their competitors

    • Elon believes in lower tariffs, and advocates for them

      • Tesla will be impacted by the May tariffs due to part production in Canada and Mexico, no way around this right now

    • Tesla has to buy equipment from outside the US and import it - it is expensive to bring in equipment from China

      • China has the most capacity to provide this equipment

  • Tesla is working to on-shore production of LFP, as most Tesla Energy batteries are supplied from China

    • There is an outsized tariff impact on Tesla Energy at the current time, and Tesla is looking at non-China suppliers of Lithium

  • Tesla is continuing to focus on adapting to policy changes

    • 85% of US-built vehicles have North American content

    • 95% of Asia-Pacific vehicles have Asian-Pacific content

    • Vertical integration and local partnerships are the key to increasing these

    • Tariff risks are higher for low-volume platforms (S, X, Cybertruck)

    • Tesla can bridge and cover production for other regions in times of crisis

    • Tesla is building strategic banks of parts they cannot vertically integrate, such as processors and microelectronics

    • Tesla is working to reduce or stop the reliance on rare earth magnets as much as possible

Energy

  • There was a 154% increase in energy storage deployed YoY, for a total of 10.4GWh.

  • Tesla is experiencing continued rapid growth in the energy market, but deliveries remain volatile due to the nature and scale of the projects.

  • Megapack expands grid capabilities

    • Tesla is expecting more demand for Megapack in the near future due to the increasing use of AI. 

      • Megapack itself is extremely useful for many industrial use cases, not just AI.

    • It can effectively double grid capacity by buffering energy usage during off-peak hours

    • Tesla has many orders in the GWh range already, and is expecting demand in the TWh range in the future.

    • Tesla is supply constrained on Megapack

  • Tesla deployed 1 GWh of Powerwall this quarter.

    • Extremely positive reception from customers; Tesla is supply constrained.

  • Tesla delivered 1.4TWh of electricity by Supercharging this quarter, with a 26% YoY growth.

  • Megafactory Shanghai is now online and producing Megapacks, over 100 are on-site and produced, ready to be shipped (not counted this quarter!)

    • Tesla expects 20GWh of annual production due to the localized supply chain, and up to 40GWh in the future.

Misc.

  • Tesla is working on getting into India, cars going in are subject to 70% tariffs and 30% luxury tax

    • Would be an excellent market, aimed at India’s middle class

    • No discussion about localizing production in India at this time

      • Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai likely have enough capacity

  • Tesla acknowledged that vandalism, unwarranted hostility, and brand image have suffered in several markets, and likely played an impact, but did not have a functional impact on demand

    • In Q&A, Tesla’s executive team mentioned:

      • Biggest impact was reduced Model Y production

      • Tesla remained a best seller in Q1 in multiple regions, and interest remained high

      • Tesla experienced the highest number of test drives in this quarter, ever

      • Tesla isn’t immune to macro economic effects

Elon’s Opening Statement

Elon’s opening statement was interesting - and normally we just integrate it right into the rest of the points, but we’ll break it out here because it is fairly important.

  • Elon acknowledges blowback for his time at DOGE

    • He believes that his work there is still important

      • DOGE team has made a lot of progress

    • Elon wanted to focus on fighting waste and fraud to benefit the US

  • Most of the work with DOGE is done

    • Time with DOGE will drop significantly as of next month

    • Elon will continue to work with DOGE throughout the current term 

      • 1-2 days per week as needed

    • Elon says he will return to focusing on Tesla

    • DOGE’s mandate ends in July 2026, so Elon will likely have to step away entirely then unless it is extended

  • This will be a bumpy year for Tesla

    • Elon is optimistic about the future of the company, but acknowledges 2025 will be challenging, but he doesn’t go into details

    • Still believes the future of the company is on large-scale autonomy

      • Both cars and humanoid robots

    • If Tesla can execute on autonomy, it is well placed for the future

Financial

  • Tesla saw a 20% YoY decline in total automotive revenues

    • Partially due to a 15% decline in gross profit, and 9% rise in operating expenses

    • Tesla saw non-GAAP earnings per share drop to $0.27, from $0.45 in Q1 2024, and $0.60 in Q4 2024.

  • Tesla attributed the majority of the decline in its vehicle deliveries due to the ramp of the Model Y across all four of its factories globally. The first time any automaker has launched a new model across all factories at the same time.

  • Tesla’s average selling price (ASP) also declined due to a mix of sales and financing incentives.

  • Overall, operating income decreased 66% YoY to $0.4B, which is a 2.1% operating margin.

  • Tesla saw growth in the energy generation and storage sectors (Tesla Energy), and also a higher regulatory credit revenue for this quarter.

  • Tesla’s continued ramp of the Cybertruck has seen a lower cost associated with its production as of Q1 2024.

  • Tesla’s CAPEX for 2025 will be in excess of $10 Billion

    • Tesla is still evaluating what and where to invest.

Listen to Event

You can listen to the entire event below, which starts at the 7 minute, 9 second mark.

Tesla Semi Keynote: New Features, 46 Charging Sites, Upgraded Battery & More [VIDEO]

By Karan Singh
Out of Spec BITS/YouTube

Tesla’s Dan W Priestley attended the Advanced Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo in Anaheim, California, and provided an update on Tesla’s Semi truck program. The presentation covered several key developments on the status of Tesla’s Nevada Semi Factory, refinements to the Semi, and Tesla’s plans for charging and ramping production through 2026.

Let’s dig in and take a look at everything that was captured by the Out of Spec team at ACT Expo. The original video is embedded below if you’d like to watch it.

Semi Factory & Production Ramp

Priestley reaffirmed the timelines mentioned during Tesla’s Q4 2024 Earnings Call that Tesla will scale Semi production in 2026. To achieve this, Tesla has been actively building and expanding the Gigafactory Nevada site, specifically to support the production of the Tesla Semi. The dedicated Semi facility will have a targeted annual capacity of 50,000 Semi trucks.

Following the beginning of production, Tesla will utilize the initial trucks to integrate into its own logistics operations. This will serve as both a final real-world testing ground as well as an opportunity for Tesla to gather data internally. Tesla plans to begin subsequent customer deliveries throughout 2026 as the ramp-up continues.

Reuters also reported that Tesla is hiring over 1,000 new employees at the Semi Factory to begin the rapid ramping of the program.

Semi has already amassed 7.9 million miles with Tesla’s current testing and operational fleets, providing some real-world data and testing. Feedback for the truck has been exceptionally successful, with many drivers praising the Semi’s performance and comfort.

New Tesla Semi Features

Of course, it wouldn’t be a Tesla keynote without showing off some new things. The Semi will be available in 500-mile and 300-mile range configurations, now featuring updated mirror designs and a drop-down glass section to improve visibility and allow easier interaction with external elements—such as control panels at ports, for example.

New Electric Power Take-Off (e-PTO)

The Tesla Semi will also feature a new capability called Electric Power Take-Off, or e-PTO system. Similar to the PTO systems found on other vehicles, this will allow the Semi’s high-voltage battery to power auxiliary equipment at variable voltages. That includes being able to power things like climate-controlled reefer trailers, potentially replacing the noisy and polluting diesel generators traditionally used for this purpose.

Charging and Batteries

Out of Spec BITS/YouTube

Tesla is also working on an updated battery pack design for the final production design of the Semi. This new pack is designed to be more cost-effective to manufacture. The battery pack itself is slightly smaller than before, but the truck maintains the same level of range through efficiencies. Dan also confirmed during his keynote that the battery cells for the Semi will be sourced domestically inside the United States, helping to alleviate potential burdens due to tariffs.

On the charging front, Tesla is using MCS - the Megawatt Charging System - capable of 1.2MW - and designed specifically for Semi. The system uses the same V4 charging hardware found at Supercharger sites but focuses on that larger power output. Alongside a smaller physical footprint, Tesla will be able to configure these V4 cabinets for either dedicated Semi charging or for shared power scenarios with regular Superchargers. Tesla is also working on an integrated overnight charging product, but Tesla isn’t ready to talk about it yet.

46 Semi Charger Sites Coming

The 46 new MCS sites coming soon.
The 46 new MCS sites coming soon.
Out of Spec BITS/YouTube

Finally, Tesla has made substantial investments in a public charging network for the Semi. There are currently 46 sites in progress throughout the United States, and plans for significant expansion throughout 2026 and 2027. These sites are strategically located alongside major truck routes and within industrial areas to support long-haul and regional operations. Tesla is aiming to offer the lowest possible energy costs to operators to help incentivize adoption.

This was one of the best updates to the Tesla Semi we’ve received since its initial unveiling. It seems that the Semi will receive a big portion of Tesla’s attention in 2026, while Robotaxi and FSD Unsupervised take the stage this year.

The Tesla Semi has the potential to transform transportation even more dramatically than EVs already have, serving as a testament to Tesla’s mission to electrify the world.

Tesla’s B-Pillar Sentry Mode Recording Requires HW4, Not Just Ryzen — Breakdown of Spring Update Requirements

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

Sentry Mode is an invaluable tool for owners - capable of keeping the vehicle safe and secure even when you’re not around. This is especially true in recent times, with the misguided and unfortunate incidents surrounding Tesla ownership, including damage to Tesla vehicles, showrooms, and Superchargers.

B-pillar Camera Recording and Dashcam Viewer

With the 2025 Spring Update on 2025.14, Tesla is expanding Sentry Mode’s functionality for certain vehicles with some much-needed changes. Sentry Mode and Dashcam can now record footage from the vehicle’s B-pillar cameras. These cameras are located on the side pillars of the vehicle, between the front and rear doors.

This adds two crucially needed viewpoints, making Tesla’s Sentry Mode a truly 360-degree security system. These cameras also provide the best angles for capturing license plates when parked, so they will be greatly appreciated by owners in the event of an incident.

These vehicles are also receiving an improved Dashcam Viewer, which now displays the six camera feeds along the bottom and a new grid view. It also allows users to jump back or forward in the video in 15-second increments.

However, to the disappointment of many owners, not all vehicles are receiving these updates due to the additional processing power needed.

Limited to Hardware 4 Vehicles, Ryzen Isn’t Enough

We have confirmed that Tesla is only adding the additional camera recording and improved Dashcam Viewer on hardware 4 (HW4 / AI4) vehicles. The newer hardware presumably has the additional processing power and bandwidth needed to handle recording and saving the two additional video streams during Sentry Mode and Dashcam.

For the time being, owners of HW3 vehicles are not receiving this feature. This includes all vehicles with HW3, even those with AMD Ryzen infotainment systems. If you’re not sure whether your vehicle has HW3 or HW4, you can refer to our FSD hardware guide.

While there’s no doubt that recording two additional camera streams would be more computationally intensive, we hope that Tesla adds the improved Dashcam Viewer to HW3 vehicles in a future update.

Cybertruck Also Missing Improved Sentry Mode

Surprisingly, and most confusing for many - is the fact that the Cybertruck is also not receiving the improved Dashcam Viewer and B-pillar camera recording with this update. This struck us as odd, especially since the Cybertruck is currently the only vehicle with the improved, more efficient version of Sentry Mode.

Every Cybertruck is equipped with HW4 and AMD Ryzen infotainment units, so this clearly isn’t a hardware restriction. It’s possible the more efficient Sentry Mode is playing a role here due to the infrastructure changes. However, we expect Tesla to address this in a future update and eventually release these features for the Cybertruck as well.

Given the Cybertruck’s high visibility and its status as a frequent target for both positive and negative attention, many owners hoped that the Cybertruck would be one of the vehicles to receive this feature.

Adaptive Headlights

Tesla finally started rolling out its adaptive headlights in North America. While the new Model Y already came with the feature when it was released last month, other vehicles with matrix headlights are now receiving the feature in the Spring Update.

All vehicles with matrix headlights are receiving this feature, which includes the new and old Model 3, first-gen Model Y, and the new Model S and Model X.

If you’re not sure if your vehicle includes matrix headlights, check out our guide. What’s interesting here is that older vehicles that were retrofitted with matrix headlights due to an accident or user replacement are also receiving the adaptive headlights feature.

Legacy Model S & Model X

As with most updates, the older legacy Model S and Model X are not receiving all the features included in this update. Unfortunately, some of the features, which include the Blind Spot Camera on the instrument cluster, Save Trunk Height Based on Location and Keep Accessory Power On are limited to the new Model S and X.

Legacy S and X models will receive the Alternative Trip Plans feature, Avoid Highways (Requires Intel MCU) and the Keyboard Languages feature.

These vehicles are also receiving all the features in the Minor Updates section except for the visualization showing how far the door is opened, which is exclusive to the Cybertruck. These additions include improved music search results, contact photos in the phone app, automatic connecting to hotspots, the ability to show third-party chargers, view Supercharger amenities, and various improvements to music services.

While many users will be disappointed not to receive the B-pillar camera recording and Dashcam Viewer improvements, it’s important to remember that Tesla typically does a great job at bringing features to older vehicles, at least with the Model 3 and Model Y. If a feature isn’t added, it’s usually due to a hardware limitation.

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