Tesla Shares New Details on FSD Unsupervised, Robotaxi, Potential FSD Price Hike During Q1 2025 Earnings Call

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

In case you missed Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings call last night, or just want to see the cliff notes, we’ve got you fully covered. While Tesla called this event a “Company Update” on their Investor Relations website, we covered all the usual aspects of a regular earnings call.

Tesla had a rough Q1, but managed to pull through even in the face of one of the most financially difficult quarters in recent memory. There’s also a lot of exciting news as Tesla shared updates and key information on some of its upcoming products.

Tesla actually started this event relatively on time, with the call beginning just seven minutes after the scheduled start time. If you prefer to listen to the call, you can listen below with the call starting at the 7 minute, 9 second mark.

FSD Supervised & Unsupervised

  • FSD Supervised launched in China, received positive reception.

    • Tesla launched FSD in China without access to country-specific data, and it is performing extremely well.

    • They expect this will make it easier to launch elsewhere.

    • FSD Supervised for Europe still on track for 2025.

  • FSD Unsupervised is now running Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertrucks from the production line to the outbound logistics lots at Fremont and Giga texas.

  • As of this quarter, FSD has been driving people in North America and China for 7.7 Million miles per day.

  • Tesla will consider pricing options for Unsupervised FSD vs Supervised FSD

    • In the meantime, Tesla plans to gradually lighten the supervision requirements

    • Executive team believes FSD is too cheap at $99/mo as it currently stands

  • Glare, Sand, Dust, Fog

    • Cameras are not fully blinded by glare or other obstacles

    • Tesla’s photon-count analysis happens before digital signal processing - the image you see on the dash may be washed out, but FSD can see fine.

  • Snow and Inclement Weather

    • These are still a challenge for scaling out to areas that experience snow.

    • Tesla is looking at implementing localized parameters to deal with snow or other localized conditions in the future

      • Not essential, but a “nice-to-have”

      • These parameters will be focused on improving reliability for certain tasks, like driving in snow

  • Waymo

    • Tesla doesn’t see Waymo as a challenger

    • LIDAR is expensive, can’t solve many problems

    • Pure vision is the key (along with audio now)

    • Tesla isn’t just doing a software solution and attaching hardware to a pre-existing vehicle, Tesla is building the vehicles ground-up with autonomy in mind

  • Validation is still a challenge, due to edge cases.

    • QA fleet is driving in Austin, and can go many days without an intervention

    • Difficult to tell whether improving or regressing

    • Deeper and broader simulation systems are being built

    • Seeing an intervention every 10,000 miles means they need 10,000 miles of data on average to address it

    • Need as much data as possible - 10,000 miles is the average distance covered by a driver in North America in a year

    • The executive team noted that Chinese FSD testers are doing a fantastic job testing edge cases

Unsupervised FSD & Robotaxi Fleet

  • Tesla is on track for the pilot launch of Robotaxi in Austin for June 2025.

    • These will move the financial needle in the 2nd half of 2026.

    • The first vehicles will be Model Y’s, not Cybercabs.

    • Aim is to start in Austin and roll out elsewhere in the United States by the end of the year

    • Focus is to ramp quickly, and have millions of vehicles operating autonomously by the end of 2026.

  • Remote Support for robotaxi fleet could happen, not 100%

  • 10-20 vehicles on Day 1 for Robotaxi fleet

    • Scale-up will happen slowly

    • By the end of June or early July, anyone will be able to go to Austin and use a robotaxi

  • Vast majority of Tesla’s existing fleet will be capable of Unsupervised FSD

    • Elon specifically mentioned the Model S, 3, X, and Y

    • This is the fourth event (We, Robot, Q4 Earnings 2024, All-Hands, and Q1 Earnings 2025) without mention of the Cybertruck being capable, likely meaning that FSD development for the Cybertruck is further behind as we’ve seen.

  • Tesla’s generalized solution to autonomy means that once they verify it works in a few North American locations, it should work in any North American city

    • Key limitation is regulatory approvals

    • This also applies for other areas of the world - the generalized solution will make it easy to apply it elsewhere

  • Tesla is providing autonomous supervised vehicles today that are capable of:

    • Cutting commute effort

    • Improving lives for customers with disabilities

    • Tesla’s executive team wants to get these stories out and get people to experience FSD

  • Unsupervised FSD should launch for customers in the US, ideally by end of year

    • Safety is a key concern, Tesla needs to continue reducing interventions per mile

    • Tesla will be careful with rolling this out outside of dedicated fleets

    • It must be meaningfully (10x or more, as per Q4 2024) safer than a human

    • Will likely be geofenced to specific cities or locations

  • Elon expects the first Model Y will drive itself from Fremont or Giga Texas all the way to a customer by the end of 2025

Affordable Vehicle

  • The plan for the new more affordable model (identified as a new vehicle), remains on schedule for production beginning in the first half of 2025.

    • These will utilize aspects of the next-generation platform as well as current platforms, and be produced on the same manufacturing lines as current vehicles.

    • This approach will result in less cost reduction, but will enable Tesla to manage capital expenditures.

  • This model will start production as soon as June and be in the market shortly thereafter.

    • Ramping will be slower than hoped due to global tariff and financial impacts

    • Production timeline is still on track overall

    • Tesla is aiming for a lower initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments

  • Tesla will use its existing lines - reducing the overall form factor difference between this new model and what Tesla already exists

    • Likely based on the Model 3 or Model Y

    • Will resemble the overall form and shape

Cybercab

  • Cybercab will use the unboxed manufacturing strategy, and is scheduled for volume production in 2026.

  • Sample production validation is ongoing now

    • First builds will happen near the end of Q2

    • Production is on-schedule at Giga Texas

    • No new building is being built, it will be built inside already planned space

  • Unboxed method is progressing well

    • It is the basis for the Cybercab’s manufacturing process

    • It lowers the cost of production and increases the level of automation considerably

    • Tesla is working on marrying large assemblies together, fixing vehicle ceiling connections, and recently completed corrosion testing

  • Unboxed methodology will eventually be incorporated into other lines

    • Cybertruck is already benefiting from some aspects of this method

  • Long term goal is a 5 second cycle time for Cybercab

    • Giga Shanghai currently has a 33 second cycle team for Model Y

Current Vehicles

  • Giga Texas produced its 400,00th vehicle in April, and Tesla launched the Cybertruck Long Range (RWD).

  • Giga Nevada achieved record battery pack production this quarter.

    • Model 3 and Model Y deliveries in the US (and Canada) are now made with 100% US-built battery packs.

  • Tesla achieved record orders in a single day in the Asia-Pacific region with the launch of the Refreshed Model Y.

    • This is the most competitive region for EVs, and a validation of Tesla’s cost structure and positioning.

  • Giga Berlin built its 500,000th Model Y this quarter.

  • Tesla has officially opened the first overseas market for the Cybertruck - Saudi Arabia.

  • Q1 is historically the worst quarter for auto sales, and the best quarter to do production swaps

    • Tesla used this as an opportunity to do the swap at all 4 factories around the world at the same time

    • Never been done before - especially as 1.1 million Model Y’s are built per year globally.

Optimus

  • Tesla’s Fremont factory is preparing production for the Optimus pilot line for 2025, and wider deployments of Optimus for internal Tesla use is expected this year.

  • There has been good progress on finalizing Optimus so far, still in prototyping stages

    • Tesla expects its pilot production line to begin running near the end of 2025

    • Several thousand units should be working in Tesla’s factories by the end of the year

    • Optimus ramp will be challenging, lots of new and unique components Tesla doesn’t make already

    • Optimus will use the AI4 computer

    • Shoulder actuators use permanent/rare earth magnets

      • Working with China to get a license for use

  • Goal is 1 million units per year by 2030

Batteries

  • The 4680 Cell (Cybercell) is IRA-complaint and eligible for the US Federal EV Rebate.

    • It is the lowest cost-per-kWh cell.

    • Tesla has diversified and protected the supply chain, and each component for the 4680 is sourced from at least two countries.

    • Lowest cost cell of any cell available on the market right now

    • Easy to build a flashy product that does one thing (e.g. charging fast) well, but difficult to scale it up and be profitable

  • Tesla’s lithium refining and cathode production plans will start production in 2025, moving critical battery production to the US.

    • Will be the biggest lithium refinery outside of China, and could potentially expand to be the biggest.

    • Cathode production will also make a big impact

    • Anode production or removing anodes entirely is being worked on

  • Tesla is no longer supply constrained for vehicle batteries, but is constrained on LFP batteries for North America due to tariffs.

Supply Chain

  • Tesla is continuing to localize supply chains where possible

    • Makes sense from a cost and logistics risk standpoint

      • Supply chains should be located on the continent of which the vehicle is built

    • Tesla is the least impacted car company in respect to tariffs

      • Places Tesla in a stronger position than their competitors

    • Elon believes in lower tariffs, and advocates for them

      • Tesla will be impacted by the May tariffs due to part production in Canada and Mexico, no way around this right now

    • Tesla has to buy equipment from outside the US and import it - it is expensive to bring in equipment from China

      • China has the most capacity to provide this equipment

  • Tesla is working to on-shore production of LFP, as most Tesla Energy batteries are supplied from China

    • There is an outsized tariff impact on Tesla Energy at the current time, and Tesla is looking at non-China suppliers of Lithium

  • Tesla is continuing to focus on adapting to policy changes

    • 85% of US-built vehicles have North American content

    • 95% of Asia-Pacific vehicles have Asian-Pacific content

    • Vertical integration and local partnerships are the key to increasing these

    • Tariff risks are higher for low-volume platforms (S, X, Cybertruck)

    • Tesla can bridge and cover production for other regions in times of crisis

    • Tesla is building strategic banks of parts they cannot vertically integrate, such as processors and microelectronics

    • Tesla is working to reduce or stop the reliance on rare earth magnets as much as possible

Energy

  • There was a 154% increase in energy storage deployed YoY, for a total of 10.4GWh.

  • Tesla is experiencing continued rapid growth in the energy market, but deliveries remain volatile due to the nature and scale of the projects.

  • Megapack expands grid capabilities

    • Tesla is expecting more demand for Megapack in the near future due to the increasing use of AI. 

      • Megapack itself is extremely useful for many industrial use cases, not just AI.

    • It can effectively double grid capacity by buffering energy usage during off-peak hours

    • Tesla has many orders in the GWh range already, and is expecting demand in the TWh range in the future.

    • Tesla is supply constrained on Megapack

  • Tesla deployed 1 GWh of Powerwall this quarter.

    • Extremely positive reception from customers; Tesla is supply constrained.

  • Tesla delivered 1.4TWh of electricity by Supercharging this quarter, with a 26% YoY growth.

  • Megafactory Shanghai is now online and producing Megapacks, over 100 are on-site and produced, ready to be shipped (not counted this quarter!)

    • Tesla expects 20GWh of annual production due to the localized supply chain, and up to 40GWh in the future.

Misc.

  • Tesla is working on getting into India, cars going in are subject to 70% tariffs and 30% luxury tax

    • Would be an excellent market, aimed at India’s middle class

    • No discussion about localizing production in India at this time

      • Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai likely have enough capacity

  • Tesla acknowledged that vandalism, unwarranted hostility, and brand image have suffered in several markets, and likely played an impact, but did not have a functional impact on demand

    • In Q&A, Tesla’s executive team mentioned:

      • Biggest impact was reduced Model Y production

      • Tesla remained a best seller in Q1 in multiple regions, and interest remained high

      • Tesla experienced the highest number of test drives in this quarter, ever

      • Tesla isn’t immune to macro economic effects

Elon’s Opening Statement

Elon’s opening statement was interesting - and normally we just integrate it right into the rest of the points, but we’ll break it out here because it is fairly important.

  • Elon acknowledges blowback for his time at DOGE

    • He believes that his work there is still important

      • DOGE team has made a lot of progress

    • Elon wanted to focus on fighting waste and fraud to benefit the US

  • Most of the work with DOGE is done

    • Time with DOGE will drop significantly as of next month

    • Elon will continue to work with DOGE throughout the current term 

      • 1-2 days per week as needed

    • Elon says he will return to focusing on Tesla

    • DOGE’s mandate ends in July 2026, so Elon will likely have to step away entirely then unless it is extended

  • This will be a bumpy year for Tesla

    • Elon is optimistic about the future of the company, but acknowledges 2025 will be challenging, but he doesn’t go into details

    • Still believes the future of the company is on large-scale autonomy

      • Both cars and humanoid robots

    • If Tesla can execute on autonomy, it is well placed for the future

Financial

  • Tesla saw a 20% YoY decline in total automotive revenues

    • Partially due to a 15% decline in gross profit, and 9% rise in operating expenses

    • Tesla saw non-GAAP earnings per share drop to $0.27, from $0.45 in Q1 2024, and $0.60 in Q4 2024.

  • Tesla attributed the majority of the decline in its vehicle deliveries due to the ramp of the Model Y across all four of its factories globally. The first time any automaker has launched a new model across all factories at the same time.

  • Tesla’s average selling price (ASP) also declined due to a mix of sales and financing incentives.

  • Overall, operating income decreased 66% YoY to $0.4B, which is a 2.1% operating margin.

  • Tesla saw growth in the energy generation and storage sectors (Tesla Energy), and also a higher regulatory credit revenue for this quarter.

  • Tesla’s continued ramp of the Cybertruck has seen a lower cost associated with its production as of Q1 2024.

  • Tesla’s CAPEX for 2025 will be in excess of $10 Billion

    • Tesla is still evaluating what and where to invest.

Listen to Event

You can listen to the entire event below, which starts at the 7 minute, 9 second mark.

Tesla Demonstrates FSD in Australia, Says No Regulatory Barriers [VIDEO]

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

Like Europeans, Australian Tesla owners have been eagerly awaiting the arrival of FSD for years, but it looks like there’s finally some good news coming. Thom Drew, Head of Tesla Australia, has confirmed that the company is actively working to bring FSD to Australian roads and, most importantly, sees no regulatory challenges blocking its path.

This update from Thom follows a video that was shared by Tesla’s AI account on X, where they showed off FSD successfully navigating the streets of Melbourne.

FSD in the Outback

Speaking to Australia’s News.com, Thom Drew provided some context behind Tesla’s Australian FSD efforts. He noted that Elon’s push and focus is the deployment of FSD globally. The engineering team is working across a lot of markets to actively push out FSD wherever possible.

Notably, Drew emphasized the favorable regulatory environment in Australia. He specifically noted that “There’s currently no blockers in Australia to releasing FSD, as we have in North America.” While he didn’t provide a specific timeline for launch, it was clear he was enthusiastic.

The lack of a regulatory blocker is great news for Australians, as Tesla’s FSD efforts in Europe have been plagued with regulatory issues. While the Australian market poses some new challenges as a right-hand drive market, at least Tesla is in control there.

Hook Turn

At the end of the video above, FSD tackles something unique to Australia - the Hook Turn. This is a relatively unique maneuver that’s specific to Melbourne’s Central Business, where vehicles turn right from the far-left lane.

For those familiar with Melbourne, that maneuver is notoriously tricky—and at times even unsettling—since even experienced human drivers can struggle with the unusual complexity of that turn. Having FSD successfully demonstrate its skill in navigating these local complexities and laws is an indication that Tesla’s data-gathering methods work well and are scalable to unique location-based rules and regulations.

What This Means for Australian Owners

Given that Australian FSD is in active development and that there’s a clear regulatory path for Supervised FSD in Australia, that’s a good sign of things to come. It seems fairly likely that Tesla will be able to release FSD in Australia by the end of 2025, if not sooner.

Last year, Tesla initially said that RHD markets would receive FSD in Q1/Q2. With Q2 coming to an end in about a month, Tesla may not be too far off the mark here.

It's important to remember that this refers to FSD (Supervised), meaning the driver must remain vigilant and ready to take control at all times, consistent with its behavior in North America and China. However, Australia's lack of regulatory blockers is a huge advantage for Tesla compared to other regions like Europe and even China, where Tesla needed to jump through hoops to get FSD approved.

If you’re in Australia, keep an eye out; FSD may be coming sooner than you think.

The Curious Case of Banish - What Happened to Tesla’s Self-Parking Feature?

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

For years, Tesla owners have been intrigued by the promise of a truly hands-off parking experience, one that goes beyond simply just letting your car park itself when you arrive at the parking lot. Banish, sometimes also known as Banish Autopark or Reverse Summon, was envisioned as the ultimate parking convenience. Your Tesla would drop you off at the entrance to your destination, full chauffeur style, and then leave to find a suitable parking spot nearby. Coupled with Park Seek, your Tesla would drive through a parking lot to locate an open space and then park itself, waiting on standby.

Then, when you were ready, you would be able to Summon it to the entrance, showing up right as you do, for the smoothest autonomous experience. However, despite the initial excitement and focus from Elon back when V12.5 was supposed to include it, we’ve heard very little about Banish. It has remained a relatively elusive feature - and the last time we saw anything on it was all the way back in October 2024, when it was alluded to in some Tesla app code

So, what happened to Banish?

The Original Promise: A Smarter Way to Park

The concept of Banish was a logical extension of Tesla’s existing Summon and Autopark capabilities. Instead of just parking when a spot is identified by the driver, Banish and Park Seek were meant to give your Tesla more agency. After dropping off the occupants, your Tesla would leverage FSD and its autonomy to:

This functionality was often discussed in conjunction with improvements to Autopark and was highlighted as a step towards Tesla’s vision of a Robotaxi future. Interestingly, while the October 2024 FSD Roadmap mentioned Park, Unpark, and Reverse, it did not mention Banish. The lack of Banish as a milestone in the FSD Roadmaps leaves us to believe that Tesla has put this feature on the back burner while it works on other FSD-related priorities.

Today’s FSD & Autopark: Capable, But Not Quite Banish

Fast forward to Spring 2025, and FSD V13 does exhibit some tendencies in terms of self-parking capabilities. As noted by many on social media, FSD can identify and maneuver into parking spots when arriving at a destination. However, this is generally not the proactive Park Seek envisioned for Banish. The current system requires the driver to be present, even if hands-off. It often identifies spots as it directly approaches them, and its seeking behavior in a larger parking lot is extremely limited.

Users have also observed that while Tesla’s vision-based Autopark is often impressively accurate even on the massive Cybertruck, letting FSD nose-in to a spot can sometimes result in the car being poorly aligned or missing the lines entirely. This suggests that while your Tesla can park itself, the nuanced understanding and precision required for a truly reliable and Unsupervised Banish experience are still under development.

V13’s upcoming features indicate that it is supposed to provide additional support for personal and parking garages and driveways, which haven’t been added in quite yet. In fact, none of V13’s upcoming features have been realized yet - and it has been a while since a proper FSD update has come from Tesla.

The Underlying Tech is Ready

Interestingly, the core AI capabilities required for Banish and Park Seek are detailed extensively in a recently published Tesla Patent covering Autonomous and User Controlled Vehicle Summon to a Target. This patent describes generating an occupancy grid of the parking lot, then conducting path planning to the spot, and making decisions to safely navigate the lot at low speeds while keeping in mind pedestrians and other road users.

This indicates that Tesla has been working on the foundational AI for low-speed maneuvering in tight locations for quite some time. However, the challenge likely lies in achieving the necessary reliability, safety, and real-world robustness across an almost infinite variety of parking lot designs and in dynamic conditions.

What’s Next? Robotaxi.

The impending launch of Tesla’s Robotaxi Network in Austin in June brings the need for Banish-like capabilities into sharp focus. For a fleet of autonomous vehicles to operate efficiently, they must be able to manage their parking autonomously. A Robotaxi will need to drop off its passenger at the entrance to a location and then proceed to either its next pickup or autonomously find a parking or staging spot to await its next ride or even go back to base to charge.

It is plausible that a functional, robust version of Park Seek and Banish is being developed and tested internally as a component for Tesla’s Robotaxi launch and presumably what will be FSD Unsupervised. The initial rollout in Austin may just be the first real-world deployment of this tech from Tesla.

While Banish has yet to launch, the key components are in place and just need to be improved. The issue likely lies in safety, as parking lots account for 1 and 5 accidents that occur in North America.

In all likelihood, Banish isn’t canceled but is being integrated into an FSD Unsupervised and the Robotaxi feature set. That means a public rollout will likely depend on achieving a higher level of safety and confidence before Tesla is willing to let vehicles park themselves autonomously or even while being Supervised through the Tesla app.

For now, you’ll have to keep parking yourself, or letting FSD or Autopark do the job. A convenient curbside drop-off isn’t in the cards yet, but given the necessity for Robotaxi, it’ll need to arrive eventually.

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