It wouldn't be an Elon Musk event without a Tesla tease. The 2022 and fourth-quarter earnings call had several tormenting lines like "next generation vehicle platform" and "we have other products in development," as well as a complete refusal to answer a question because "we would be jumping the gun on future announcements."
Q4 Earnings Call
Mark your calendar for March 1, 2023 — Tesla's Investor Day. That's when we will find out what's next for Tesla. During the investor call, there were no shortages of tempting tidbits of information from company executives. What is it? Musk understands the curiosity, "I mean, I'd love to answer. You know, if I were you, I'd probably be asking the same question."
Tesla Building Excitement for Next Model
While we are used to Musk provoking interest, Tesla's so-called Master of Coin, Zachary Kirkhorn was also dropping hints. The tight-lipped Chief Financial Officer wrapped up his opening remarks by describing priorities for funding Tesla's long-term road map. "This includes... development of our next-generation vehicle platform... We're looking forward to discussing these plans in more detail on our Investor Day in a month."
Kirkhorn is one of many executives having difficulty keeping the next vehicle a secret. Chief designer, Franz von Holzhausen has said that his favorite Tesla product is the next one.
Musk has alluded to a highly configurable van and was asked if there were plans to accelerate commercial vehicles outside of the Semi. Musk responded, "Well, I was basically saying yes, but I'm not going to give you details, (laughs) nice try, nice try. "
But Musk explained that it's not about a limit in different vehicles they want to produce; it's a constraint on total cell lithium-ion production output. "Well, it doesn't really help if all you're doing is shuffling around the batteries from one car to another… So, we want a new product introduction to match where the cells are available or that new product to use those cells without cannibalizing the cells of the other cars. That's the actual limiting factor for new models, not anything else really."
With supply chain certainty, the time is right to make the next introduction to the Tesla lineup. However, it's hard to predict when that next-generation vehicle will be produced. We are still waiting for the Cybertruck. That vehicle was announced in 2017, but is only expected to become available this summer.
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Less than ten days since the last FSD update, Tesla has started rolling out FSD v12.3.6. Not only does this update include improvements to FSD itself, but it also adds the new Autopark and High Fidelity Park Assist to vehicles with ultrasonic sensors.
As Tesla continues to ramp up its AI training capacity, the average number of miles driven on FSD continues to climb at an increased rate.
Computing Power
Last week, in the earnings call deck, Tesla revealed that it’s set to increase its core AI infrastructure capacity “in the coming months.” Tesla stated it has quadrupled its capacity since September 2023.
To further improve our end-to-end training capability, we will continue to increase our core AI infrastructure capacity in the coming months. - Tesla
Musk said on Sunday that the company will spend “around $10B” throughout 2024 in “combined training and inference AI, the latter being primarily in car”. “Any company not spending at this level, and doing so efficiently, cannot compete,” he added.
Tesla's computing power has drastically increased
Expansion to China
In an unexpected 24-hour trip to China, Elon Musk visited Beijing to meet with Premier Li Qiang to discuss the rollout of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and permission to transfer driving data overseas. Since Tesla uses fleet data to continuously improve FSD, being able to use data gathered in and outside of China will be crucial to its continued improvement.
Elon Musk meeting with Premier Li Qiang today in China.
On the same day, Tesla models produced at Giga Shanghai were listed among the EVs that meet China's data security requirements for smart cars, an important hurdle for Tesla to surpass.
When Musk was asked on X about Tesla releasing FSD in China, Musk simply said “It may be possible very soon.”
Regarding additional markets such as Europe and Australia, Musk said he believes that v12 is “ready for supervised FSD in LHD countries” while RHD like the UK or Australia “will take a bit longer”.
Internal FSD Is 3 to 6 Months Ahead
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed that the team knows “roughly” how the software will perform in “3 to 6 months”. He added that it takes “a few months to fix those bugs and complete safety tests” before releasing the version to the Tesla employees and then to the general public.
Major FSD Updates Coming
On X, Musk teased that the next major update to FSD will be v12.4, saying “it’s awesome,” and that it’s “another big jump in capabilities.” Musk said that Tesla’s computing constraint has been much improved, and likely may be a factor in this further being another big improvement.
In mid-March, Elon Musk announced that Tesla will reintroduce Smart Summon and Autopark to its vehicles. Tesla has now delivered on the Autopark promise, but we’re still waiting on the improved Smart Summon feature. It’s possible we’ll see in FSD v12.4.
On Sunday, Tesla started rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V12.3.6, the latest version of its FSD software. This update includes the highly anticipated new Autopark and High Fidelity Park Assist feature for additional vehicles. FSD v12.3.6 replaces v12.3.5 which had only been rolled out to a small portion of the fleet.
The new Autopark (tap to park) and High Fidelity Park Assist features are now available for vehicles with ultrasonic sensors (USS). Since October 2022, all Model 3 and Model Y vehicles no longer include ultrasonic sensors, instead relying solely on Tesla Vision to provide Autopilot, Park Assist, and Autopark features. However, the vision-based Autopark has been limited to the U.S. and Canada so far.
New Autopark
When driving at low speed, the new Autopark highlights potential parking spaces allowing the driver to pick their preferred spot. Tesla vehicles with ultrasonic sensors (USS) can now take advantage of the new Autopark feature, which is a significant improvement over the previous iteration.
Although the new Autopark feature is expanding to vehicles with USS, it appears to still be geographically limited to the U.S. and Canada. We expect Tesla to continue the feedback loop and release the feature in Europe and other regions in a future update.
Vehicles without USS outside of North America have never had Autopark of any form since they don’t support the older Autopark version that relies on USS and have yet to receive this latest revision of the feature.
For vehicles with the Intel-based infotainment unit, the visuals will look like the video below, where it doesn’t display a 3D environment of the vehicle’s surroundings. Instead, the visualization just highlights parking spaces available. However, the limitation for Intel vehicles is just in the visualization itself, the vehicle is just as aware of its surroundings as vehicles that display 3D renderings of objects on the screen.
With Tesla update 2024.3.25 (FSD v12.3.6), Tesla is also releasing High Fidelity Park Assist features to vehicles with ultrasonic sensors. However, as initially suspected, it’s limited to vehicles with the most recent infotainment processor that includes the Ryzen chip (MCU 3). Unfortunately, Intel Atom based vehicles don’t include the 3D visuals of High Fidelity Park Assist.
The feature provides drivers with a 360-degree 3D reconstruction of their vehicles’ surroundings while parking while traveling at low speeds. It even accurately displays lane markers in parking lots helping drivers visualize the environment around them when parking. The feature was added as a late addition to Tesla’s 2023 holiday update. However, at the time, it was limited to vehicles without ultrasonic sensors (USS).
For vehicles that have ultrasonic sensors, users will have a choice to either continue using their vehicle with USS sensors that display exact distances to objects or use the new High Fidelity Park Assist feature and forego the display of distances.
We were hoping that when Tesla finally released HiFi Park Assist to vehicles with USS, it would merge the two features and display the updated visuals with distance measurements, however, that is not the case in this update.
For owners with USS, the new Park Assist option is located under Controls > Autopilot and allows you to choose between “Standard” or “Tesla Vision.” Tesla Vision being the new HiFi Park Assist and Standard representing the USS version with arcs and measurements.
Tesla’s director of Autopilot, Ashok Elluswamy had previously set expectations and stated that HiFi Park Assist would “eventually” go to vehicles with ultrasonic sensors back in December 2023. The new Park Assist feature is available in various regions around the world, including North America and most of Europe.
Tesla continues to double down on vision and Musk revealed that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.
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