Musk Doubles Down on New Model as Competition Picks Up

Elon Musk speaks at the B20 conference

B20 Indonesia

Elon Musk has said it before but will repeat it whenever asked. While virtually attending the B20 conference in Indonesia, Musk was asked about creating a smaller, more affordable car. The moderator suggested it be called the Model I for India or Indonesia. It’s a reoccurring question, but with competition also targeting a cheaper price point, Tesla must find a way to get there.

Musk responded to the question familiarly, “I can’t speak too much to the future of Tesla product development, except to say that we do think that making a much more affordable vehicle would make a lot of sense and we should do something.”

It’s something Tesla will have to do. Volvo’s CEO Jim Rowan told Automotive New Europe that EVs should be at price parity with gas cars in a couple of years.

The manufacturer has also teased a small EV that it sees as entry-level for consumers. It’s set a goal of producing 600,000 battery-powered vehicles by 2025. So far this year, it has made 40,500. Therefore, the new small vehicle the company is talking about would have to be a price point that would move many cars. Rowan said, “city car aimed at a younger demographic who can subscribe to it and make it their first Volvo.”

Elon Musk at the B20 Conference

Tesla has already brought down the price of producing electric vehicles, but Volvo says it can do better. Volvo said during its Capital Markets Day presentations that it plans to have battery pack costs down to less than $100 per kilowatt hour by 2025-26. A recent tear-down of the Tesla Model 3 pack, overseen by analysts from UBS bank, showed a cost of $131 per kWh.

During the third quarter earnings call, Musk said that Tesla’s new vehicle development team was already working on the next platform and would incorporate everything the company has learned from Models S, 3, X, Y, Semi and Cybertruck.

He also said that the target was to create a 2-for-1, as in producing two cars using the same effort it currently takes to build one. “It will be smaller, to be clear. But it will, I think, certainly become, certainly exceed the production of all our other vehicles combined.”

There have been rumblings of a Model 2, a vehicle that would cost around $25,000, for a few years around Tesla.

With the company having a hard time keeping up with orders for the Model 3 and Model Y, that didn’t seem necessary. However, Musk could also be alluding to the company's upcoming Robotaxi, or possibly a platform will be shared by both vehicles.

The company must address the need for a cheaper vehicle with the competition catching up and targeting areas where Tesla doesn’t currently offer products.

Musk Teases New Model for Early 2025 That Will Use a Mix of Next-Gen and Current Platforms

“We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025”. This was one of the key sentences that were part of Tesla’s deck shared on Tuesday directly before its financial results.

Since Reuters’ report a few weeks ago saying Tesla had “scrapped” the highly expected cheaper model— which Elon quickly denied on X —retail and institutional shareholders started asking for more details on Tesla’s product roadmap for 2024 and beyond.

In the earnings conference call, Elon Musk reiterated that Tesla expects to launch the next model in “early 2025, if not late this year”.

“We've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of previously mentioned start of production in the second half of 2025. So, we expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year. “

Over concerns of temporary production halts to update the factories for these new models, Musk said that Tesla will produce new models with certain aspects from their next-generation platform and current models. This will reduce the number of changes needed on production lines and allow Tesla not only to ramp up production faster but also to get the vehicles to market quicker.

Model Y Redesign

Tesla appears to hit that their next-gen vehicle will be less “next-gen” than they were initially aiming for, but to get a new vehicle out the door by late 2024, the process would already have to be in motion. Tesla may likely be referring to the redesigned Model Y, which is expected to reuse many parts from the new Model 3. Earlier this year, Tesla said that the redesigned Model Y will not be released this year, so it makes sense that they’re looking to speed up that production.

Tesla CEO concluded by saying that these measures will allow Tesla to reach a capacity of over 3 million units. Tesla produced 1.84 million vehicles in 2023. However, this year they’re ramping up Cybertruck production and introduced the new Model 3 into new markets.

And we think this should allow us to get to over 3 million vehicles of capacity when realized to the full extent.

Tesla reported on Tuesday its earnings results followed by a conference call where it teased its upcoming Robotaxi and its next-generation platform saying its “purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary ‘unboxed’ manufacturing strategy”.

Earlier in the day, Tesla announced the new Performance variant of its sedan Model 3 with deliveries in the United States starting already next month. The new version starts at $45,490 (after applying the $7,500 Federal EV tax credit) and goes from 0 to 60mph in 2.9 seconds.

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Tesla on FSD: Close to License Deal With Major Automaker, Announces Miles Driven on FSD v12

On Tuesday Tesla reported its earnings results followed by a conference call that brought several updates on the company’s roadmap for future vehicles, autonomous driving, Optimus and much more.

While answering a question from Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney about updates on the licensing of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Elon Musk said they’re talking to one major auto manufacturer and there’s “a good chance” the company signs the first deal before year-end. However, he went on to say that it would probably be three years before the necessary changes are integrated into the car.

I think we have a good chance we do sign a deal this year

Brings Benefits to Tesla

The technology would require other automakers to start using the same cameras and hardware as Tesla, meaning that Tesla may not only generate money from licensing FSD but also from selling the hardware itself. However, there would be other benefits as well. When licensing FSD, Tesla would likely own the data gathered with the system well, further helping them with data and edge cases that need to be solved to reach full autonomy.

people don't understand all cars will need to be smart cars… Once that becomes obvious, I think licensing becomes not optional.

Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja commented pointing out that future partners “take a lot of time in their product life cycle” resulting in a gap between the deal signing and the arrival in the market of Tesla’s FSD software.

Miles Driven With FSD

On the conference call, Musk added that Tesla now has over 300 million miles that have been driven with FSD v12 since it was launched just last month. He added that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.

Tesla said it will continue to increase its “core AI infrastructure capacity in the coming months” adding that in the first quarter, it completed the transition to hardware 4.0 with China now receiving the upgraded FSD computer and cameras.

Over the weekend, Tesla reduced the price of FSD dropping it from $12,000 to $8,000 for customers in the United States and from CA$16,000 to CA$11,000 in Canada.

Earlier this month, Tesla implemented a 50% price reduction for FSD subscriptions in the U.S. and introduced the subscription model in Canada at a great value of CA$99 per month.

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