Tesla held their Q3 2022 earnings call on Wednesday
Tesla
Tesla has grown at an incredible rate, but according to Elon Musk, we haven't seen anything yet. So the company's CEO made the earnings call a can't miss event for investors and enthusiasts. The third quarter earnings call highlighted expected growth, buybacks and resumes. After the call, Musk tweeted: I will not let you down, no matter what It takes. Here is a quick recap of what we learned from the 58-minute call.
First, there are some quick points before we get into more detailed highlights. Musk says quarter-four is shaping up to be "epic" and promises a record-breaking performance. Tesla is not "recession-proof," but is resilient. Musk does not see any reason to slow down production, as demand is still far more than supply. RoboTaxi is progressing. The program would provide autonomous vehicles as cabs, but hinges on the full self-driving program.
Tesla Will Have the Largest Market Cap
In his opening remarks to investors, Musk made an extraordinary prediction. He said that Tesla would have the largest market cap in the world, surpassing second-place Saudi Aramco and first-place Apple. Not only would his company take the lead, "In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined."
The combined market cap of those two companies is more than 4.4 trillion. Tesla is worth just over $690 billion. Musk says it won't be easy, but "It will require a lot of work, some very creative new products, manage expansion and always - luck… We have an incredible product portfolio. I think we've got the most exciting product portfolio of any company on earth, some of which you've heard about, some of which you haven't." He later added that this prediction did not include Optimus coming to market. Tesla recently updated its humanoid robot to be put to work in Tesla factories before being available to the world in 2027.
Buybacks Could Happen in 2023
The topic of buybacks regularly surfaces during these earnings calls. Musk said that it has been discussed, "extensively at the Board level. The Board generally thinks that it makes sense to do a buyback." He added that the company would be looking at doing a buyback of $5 to $10 billion, and even if 2023 is a down year, "it's likely that we'll do some meaningful buyback."
Unfortunately, the buybacks won't happen before the 1% tax on buybacks kicks in on January 1, 2023. Some speculate this is the real reason the buybacks were pushed to next year, to avoid the optics of trying to dodge a new tax.
Tesla is Becoming the Go-To for the Brightest Minds
A.I. Day 2022 was a big hit, not only for showing off Optimus and Full Self-Driving improvements but generating interest in the company. While A.I. Day is viewed by many as a way for the company to show off its latest achievements, it's a recruitment drive.
Tesla includes several staff members to discuss projects, while Musk encourages people with interest to apply. "We've seen a massive influx of world-class artificial intelligence engineers and scientists resumes. So, it generated a tremendous amount of interest from some of the best AI researchers in the world. I can't emphasize the importance of this enough because I think finally it has become clear to the smartest AI technologists in the world that Tesla is among the very best."
50 Percent Annual Growth
Tesla is going to need all the help it can get. The company is still committed to growing by 50 percent yearly in both deliveries and revenue. "We expect to sell every car that we make for as far into the future as we can see. So, the factories are running at full speed, and we're delivering every car we make and keeping operating margins strong," said Musk.
Despite the company's strong growth, he admits Tesla is still tiny in the big picture: "We are still a very small percentage of the total vehicles on the road. Of the 2 billion cars and trucks on the road, we only have about 3.5 million. So, we've got a long way to go to even reach 1% of the global fleet."
That said, there has been a monumental shift to electric vehicles in the past year, prompting Musk to say, "I think the public, at large, realizes that everyone's moving towards electric vehicles and that it's foolish to actually buy a new gasoline car at this point because the residual value of that gasoline car is going to be very low. So, I think we have to be in a very good spot."
That means there are two billion cars that could be retired in the coming years and replaced with electric vehicles. Therefore, the consumer pool will only get bigger and demand for EVs will continue to grow,
Following customer requests, Tesla has once again returned FSD Transfers for North America. This comes after some new details we received on FSD Supervised and Unsupervised at the recent Q1 2025 Earnings Call.
Vox Populi, Vox Dei … FSD Transfer is back
All countries (in NA), all S3XY + @cybertruck (excl Foundation Series & Launch Series)
This latest round of FSD transfers doesn’t have a specific time limit - so if you’re in the market for a new vehicle and were worried about transferring FSD from a HW3 vehicle - now is the best chance.
This transfer opportunity is applicable for any new vehicle purchases, including the Model S, 3, X, Y, as well as the Cybertruck. The only vehicles it doesn’t apply to are the Foundation-Series Cybertruck or a Launch-Series Model Y, which already come with FSD included.
If you’re conducting an FSD transfer, you’ll need to reach out to your Tesla delivery coordinator through the Tesla app to confirm you’re eligible and to get the process started.
Note that once you take delivery, FSD access is removed from your older vehicle, regardless if you plan to trade in your vehicle or keep it.
Canada and Mexico
For those in Canada and Mexico, there’s some good news. This opportunity is available for customers in those countries as well, however, new vehicle orders are currently paused in Canada and Mexico for unknown reasons.
Running Offers
There are also several other offers running in North America, with the country flags indicating which countries their available in:
0% Financing on new Model 3 Orders (60mo, 0.99% for 72mo) 🇺🇸
Deep Blue Metallic and Pearl White are currently free on a new Model 3 Performance 🇺🇸
Original Model Y Owners are receiving $2,000 off the purchase of a Refreshed Model Y 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽
Free Supercharging on the Model S and Model X 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽
Free Supercharging on the Foundation-Series Cybertruck 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽
Tesla’s long-awaited ambitions for a fully autonomous Robotaxi network powered by the futuristic, control-less Cybercab have finally started to take shape.
During their Q1 2025 earnings call, Tesla shared new details about its Robotaxi network, including that the network will start with new Model Ys. The Cybercab will join the network in 2026.
Robotaxi Plans
Tesla confirmed during the Earnings Call that it is on track to conduct the pilot launch of its Robotaxi network in Austin in June 2025. The first vehicles deployed for this service won’t be Cybercabs, as production for those is still in the prototyping stage.
However, Tesla did outline part of their plan for the Robotaxi network rollout. The initial aim is to begin driverless operations in Austin and then expand the service to other cities within the United States by the end of 2025. Interestingly, Tesla is also testing in California - albeit with safety drivers at this time.
Not a Tesla App
Looking further ahead, there are ambitious plans to ramp up operations to have millions of vehicles operating autonomously within the network by the end of 2026. While substantial revenue generation won’t be immediate, Tesla anticipates that the Robotaxi network will start to “meaningfully move the financial needle” in the second half of 2026.
Tesla also highlighted the current real-world benefits that FSD is already offering today—and will be able to offer to many more people in the near future.
These include reducing effort and time spent on daily commuting or transit, as well as improving mobility for customers with disabilities. Tesla plans to emphasize some of these community stories and wants to highlight the advantages and capabilities of FSD to improve people’s lives.
Robotaxi App and Robotaxi Vehicle UI
Not a Tesla App
After the call, Tesla AI also shared a video showcasing the Robotaxi interface in the Tesla app, as well as some footage that included the in-vehicle UI, at least as it currently stands.
The video shows Tesla employees using and testing Robotaxi features, although there are safety drivers in place. It looks like there is already a set of well-integrated UI mechanisms for both the front and rear screen when in Robotaxi mode.
Tesla is testing this today, and this network has already completed 1,500 trips, totaling approximately 15,000 miles. The system is being tested for vehicle allocation, mission control, and remote assistance operations.
Remote Operators
Inevitably, edge cases or unique situations will come up, and they will be difficult to handle. For these cases, where a Robotaxi vehicle gets stuck or requires assistance, Tesla will likely implement remote support.
While they didn’t completely confirm remote support operators on the Earnings Call, Tesla has previously posted positions for Teleoperator Engineers for Robotaxi, and an AI T=team member posted on LinkedIn about testing for remote assistance operations.
Scaling Up
Tesla initially intends to deploy a relatively small fleet in Austin, with its pilot beginning with about 10 to 20 vehicles on day 1. They will scale up gradually as the systems are validated and operations are refined, and the target is for anyone visiting Austin to be able to hail a robotaxi by the end of June or early July 2025.
Scaling Out
Not a Tesla App
Tesla’s confidence in scaling out stems from its generalized approach with FSD. The team believes that once FSD is thoroughly verified and capable in a few diverse North American cities, deploying it to any other North American city should be technically feasible. After all, driving regulations don’t vary much from one major city to another, except for things like no right turns on red lights.
The primary limitation with scaling out geographically is expected to be securing regulatory approvals in different regions and jurisdictions. While the principles of Tesla’s FSD are expected to apply globally, as with the China rollout, regulation will continue to be a considerable hurdle.
Cybercab
FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San Francisco Bay Area.
We've completed over 1.5k trips & 15k miles of driving.
This service helps us develop & validate FSD networks, the mobile app, vehicle allocation, mission control &… pic.twitter.com/pYVfhi935W
Tesla’s fully autonomous, two-seater vehicle, the Cybercab, is also being developed. While volume production for the Cybercab won’t begin until 2026, Tesla is already undergoing sample production validation. The first actual Cybercab builds are expected to be completed near the end of Q2 2025, and we’re excited to see if anything changes from the prototypes shown at We, Robot.
Tesla intends to build Cybercab at Giga Texas, and the production line is on schedule, according to Tesla. Cybercab production will not require a new building and will be built inside the existing Giga Texas factory.
Unboxed Method
Tesla's Shareholder Deck for Q1 2025 is now out, and we're 40 minutes away from the Earnings Call.
It seems Tesla won't be using the unboxed process for its more affordable model - which is a new vehicle.
The Cybercab’s production and low-cost methodology heavily rely upon Tesla’s innovative new unboxed manufacturing method. Tesla’s executive team mentioned that progress and implementation with this new manufacturing solution was going well, and it will be key to lowering the cost of production while considerably raising the level of automation.
Tesla has already achieved key milestones with this method, including successfully integrating large sub-assemblies and resolving challenges related to connecting portions of the vehicle's ceiling during the process. They have also successfully completed corrosion testing related to the new assembly method, as well as begun initial crash testing for the Cybercab.
All of that and more will eventually be incorporated into other vehicle production lines, and the Cybertruck is already benefiting from some aspects of these developments. With a final ambition of achieving a 5-second cycle time per Cybercab, Tesla has come a long way—but it still has quite a bit to go. They’ve managed to meet a 33-second cycle time for the Model Y at Giga Shanghai between two production lines, but 5 seconds per vehicle is quite ambitious.
Not a Tesla App
With all that said, between Robotaxi and Cybercab, there is a lot of interesting news coming from Tesla. We expect this to continue throughout the year as Tesla launches its network and then aims to release FSD Unsupervised to customers, with a potential price increase.
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