Tesla held their Q3 2022 earnings call on Wednesday
Tesla
Tesla has grown at an incredible rate, but according to Elon Musk, we haven't seen anything yet. So the company's CEO made the earnings call a can't miss event for investors and enthusiasts. The third quarter earnings call highlighted expected growth, buybacks and resumes. After the call, Musk tweeted: I will not let you down, no matter what It takes. Here is a quick recap of what we learned from the 58-minute call.
First, there are some quick points before we get into more detailed highlights. Musk says quarter-four is shaping up to be "epic" and promises a record-breaking performance. Tesla is not "recession-proof," but is resilient. Musk does not see any reason to slow down production, as demand is still far more than supply. RoboTaxi is progressing. The program would provide autonomous vehicles as cabs, but hinges on the full self-driving program.
Tesla Will Have the Largest Market Cap
In his opening remarks to investors, Musk made an extraordinary prediction. He said that Tesla would have the largest market cap in the world, surpassing second-place Saudi Aramco and first-place Apple. Not only would his company take the lead, "In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined."
The combined market cap of those two companies is more than 4.4 trillion. Tesla is worth just over $690 billion. Musk says it won't be easy, but "It will require a lot of work, some very creative new products, manage expansion and always - luck… We have an incredible product portfolio. I think we've got the most exciting product portfolio of any company on earth, some of which you've heard about, some of which you haven't." He later added that this prediction did not include Optimus coming to market. Tesla recently updated its humanoid robot to be put to work in Tesla factories before being available to the world in 2027.
Buybacks Could Happen in 2023
The topic of buybacks regularly surfaces during these earnings calls. Musk said that it has been discussed, "extensively at the Board level. The Board generally thinks that it makes sense to do a buyback." He added that the company would be looking at doing a buyback of $5 to $10 billion, and even if 2023 is a down year, "it's likely that we'll do some meaningful buyback."
Unfortunately, the buybacks won't happen before the 1% tax on buybacks kicks in on January 1, 2023. Some speculate this is the real reason the buybacks were pushed to next year, to avoid the optics of trying to dodge a new tax.
Tesla is Becoming the Go-To for the Brightest Minds
A.I. Day 2022 was a big hit, not only for showing off Optimus and Full Self-Driving improvements but generating interest in the company. While A.I. Day is viewed by many as a way for the company to show off its latest achievements, it's a recruitment drive.
Tesla includes several staff members to discuss projects, while Musk encourages people with interest to apply. "We've seen a massive influx of world-class artificial intelligence engineers and scientists resumes. So, it generated a tremendous amount of interest from some of the best AI researchers in the world. I can't emphasize the importance of this enough because I think finally it has become clear to the smartest AI technologists in the world that Tesla is among the very best."
50 Percent Annual Growth
Tesla is going to need all the help it can get. The company is still committed to growing by 50 percent yearly in both deliveries and revenue. "We expect to sell every car that we make for as far into the future as we can see. So, the factories are running at full speed, and we're delivering every car we make and keeping operating margins strong," said Musk.
Despite the company's strong growth, he admits Tesla is still tiny in the big picture: "We are still a very small percentage of the total vehicles on the road. Of the 2 billion cars and trucks on the road, we only have about 3.5 million. So, we've got a long way to go to even reach 1% of the global fleet."
That said, there has been a monumental shift to electric vehicles in the past year, prompting Musk to say, "I think the public, at large, realizes that everyone's moving towards electric vehicles and that it's foolish to actually buy a new gasoline car at this point because the residual value of that gasoline car is going to be very low. So, I think we have to be in a very good spot."
That means there are two billion cars that could be retired in the coming years and replaced with electric vehicles. Therefore, the consumer pool will only get bigger and demand for EVs will continue to grow,
Well-known Tesla hacker Greentheonly has discovered a new FSD computer labeled Model Y “Reloaded.” This AI4 FSD computer differs from other Model Y Autopilot hardware which is usually just labeled “Model Y.”
Initially, it looks like this new computer may be for the just-announced refreshed Model Y Juniper, which is now open for orders in North America and Europe as well as Asia Pacific, but several features reveal it’s not for Tesla’s upcoming best-seller.
So, with that said, put on your detective hats, we’re going for a little sleuth into what exactly this “Reloaded” computer could be used for.
Model Y Reloaded Computer
The AI4 computer is the brain behind Tesla’s FSD. It is the Autopilot computer, where all the vehicle’s cameras connect, enabling real-time data processing and analysis.
This particular unit is not the standard FSD unit that’s being shipped with the current, now “first-gen” Model Y. The biggest sign that it differs from the current AI4 computer is that it features a connector for the front bumper camera. While the 2024 Model 3 was expected to come with a front bumper camera, it was only ever available on the Cybertruck and will soon be available on the new 2025 Model Y.
This is similar to the physical connector for the front bumper camera present in newer iterations of the Model S and Model X computers. These vehicles were originally slated to get a bumper camera last year, but that hasn’t happened yet. We reported back in 2022 that they received the additional camera hook-ups but no camera.
Tesla recently issued a recall for the AI4 computer, citing physical and software issues that could cause a potential short on the board. According to Green, this board is not the recalled unit but could instead be a replacement unit. However, why the board includes a front bumper camera connection remains a mystery.
Not a Juniper FSD Computer
We know that this isn’t the correct part for the refreshed Model Y Juniper because it lacks a connector for the secondary rear screen in the upcoming model.
Additionally, Tesla has labeled this computer unit as “MY Reloaded” - previous versions of the computer for the Model Y were listed as just “MY.” In addition, all the other computer versions have been pulled from Tesla’s Electronic Parts Catalogue - only this one is now available as Part #2003160-S0-E.
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@greentheonly on X
Speculation
This new FSD hardware doesn’t appear to match the current or new Model Y, so what could it be? Well, there are a few things here. Tesla wouldn’t bother populating that front bumper camera slot for no reason - and this computer is a slightly different form factor than the one that goes in the Model S and Model X - so they’re not just sharing parts between the Model S and Model Y.
The most likely scenario is that Tesla is planning to replace any faulty AI4 computers with this updated part. But could Tesla be open to offering a retrofit for the front bumper camera? It’s important to note that this is not the hardware upgrade that many HW3 owners are waiting for. It is a different form factor than the HW3 computer and wouldn’t fit in HW3 vehicles. If anything, this is a potential replacement for the AI4 computer to support forward compatibility if FSD ever requires a bumper camera.
The full computer.
@greentheonly on X
Bumper Camera Retrofit?
Is Tesla planning to offer a front bumper camera retrofit? Maybe. Tesla doesn’t typically offer retrofits. They did for several items in the past, but they have largely stopped doing so.
Tesla included a front bumper camera on the refreshed Model Y Juniper, as well as on the Cybertruck - and it could be extremely useful for both Actually Smart Summon and FSD to remove the frontal blind spot.
However, it could be an optional feature rather than a retrofit feature. Until FSD Unsupervised arrives, we won’t know for sure whether a bumper camera is required.
For now, it would be best to keep an eye on this. Just like the Model S and Model X having the slot populated, it may not necessarily happen, but it leaves the door open for a future upgrade if necessary.
Tesla has announced steep price increases for its vehicles in Canada, with adjustments of up to CA$9,000 set to take effect on February 1, 2025. This move impacts nearly all models, with the Model 3 Performance trim seeing the steepest hike, rising from $70,990 to $79,990 Canadian. The Model Y, Model S, and Model X will each see a flat increase of CA$4,000 across all trims. Notably, the Cybertruck remains unaffected by these changes.
These price hikes coincide with the expiration of Canada’s federal EV incentive program, which previously offered CA$5,000 rebates on eligible vehicles, further increasing the price of Tesla vehicles.
Additionally, the Canadian dollar’s recent decline against the US dollar and looming trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada may have influenced Tesla’s decision. President Trump proposed a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, and Tesla may be expecting Canada to retaliate with a similar tariff on US goods. However, it’s interesting that Tesla has chosen to raise prices so drastically before any tariffs have been announced.
Price Increases
Model
Price Increase
Model 3 Long Range RWD
CA $4,000 ($2,800 USD)
Model 3 Long Range AWD
CA $8,000 ($5,600 USD)
Model 3 Performance
CA $9,000 ($6,300 USD)
Model Y
CA $4,000 ($2,800 USD)
Model S
CA $4,000 ($2,800 USD)
Model X
CA $4,000 ($2,800 USD)
Cybertruck
$0
Buyers
This could be a critical time to act for prospective buyers, with the price increase going into effect in just about a week. Tesla’s online configurator allows customers to lock in current prices by placing an order before February 1st. The company’s referral program also offers CA$1,300 off Model Y, Model S, and Model X purchases, providing additional savings before the price hike takes effect.
It’s not clear how much these adjustments will impact Tesla sales in Canada. If the increases are related to an upcoming tariff, then they’ll impact other manufacturers as well. We may see a potential surge in orders ahead of the February 1 deadline, especially for the AWD and Performance variants of the new Model 3, which will see the largest increase.
The price increase is expected to impact the new Model Y as well, which was announced last night for North America and Europe. Deliveries for the new model begin in March.
If you’re on the fence about whether you should order a new Tesla, now may be a good time to place your order. Tesla offers the ability to cancel your order, but buyers would lose their deposit.
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