Tesla held their Q3 2022 earnings call on Wednesday
Tesla
Tesla has grown at an incredible rate, but according to Elon Musk, we haven't seen anything yet. So the company's CEO made the earnings call a can't miss event for investors and enthusiasts. The third quarter earnings call highlighted expected growth, buybacks and resumes. After the call, Musk tweeted: I will not let you down, no matter what It takes. Here is a quick recap of what we learned from the 58-minute call.
First, there are some quick points before we get into more detailed highlights. Musk says quarter-four is shaping up to be "epic" and promises a record-breaking performance. Tesla is not "recession-proof," but is resilient. Musk does not see any reason to slow down production, as demand is still far more than supply. RoboTaxi is progressing. The program would provide autonomous vehicles as cabs, but hinges on the full self-driving program.
Tesla Will Have the Largest Market Cap
In his opening remarks to investors, Musk made an extraordinary prediction. He said that Tesla would have the largest market cap in the world, surpassing second-place Saudi Aramco and first-place Apple. Not only would his company take the lead, "In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined."
The combined market cap of those two companies is more than 4.4 trillion. Tesla is worth just over $690 billion. Musk says it won't be easy, but "It will require a lot of work, some very creative new products, manage expansion and always - luck… We have an incredible product portfolio. I think we've got the most exciting product portfolio of any company on earth, some of which you've heard about, some of which you haven't." He later added that this prediction did not include Optimus coming to market. Tesla recently updated its humanoid robot to be put to work in Tesla factories before being available to the world in 2027.
Buybacks Could Happen in 2023
The topic of buybacks regularly surfaces during these earnings calls. Musk said that it has been discussed, "extensively at the Board level. The Board generally thinks that it makes sense to do a buyback." He added that the company would be looking at doing a buyback of $5 to $10 billion, and even if 2023 is a down year, "it's likely that we'll do some meaningful buyback."
Unfortunately, the buybacks won't happen before the 1% tax on buybacks kicks in on January 1, 2023. Some speculate this is the real reason the buybacks were pushed to next year, to avoid the optics of trying to dodge a new tax.
Tesla is Becoming the Go-To for the Brightest Minds
A.I. Day 2022 was a big hit, not only for showing off Optimus and Full Self-Driving improvements but generating interest in the company. While A.I. Day is viewed by many as a way for the company to show off its latest achievements, it's a recruitment drive.
Tesla includes several staff members to discuss projects, while Musk encourages people with interest to apply. "We've seen a massive influx of world-class artificial intelligence engineers and scientists resumes. So, it generated a tremendous amount of interest from some of the best AI researchers in the world. I can't emphasize the importance of this enough because I think finally it has become clear to the smartest AI technologists in the world that Tesla is among the very best."
50 Percent Annual Growth
Tesla is going to need all the help it can get. The company is still committed to growing by 50 percent yearly in both deliveries and revenue. "We expect to sell every car that we make for as far into the future as we can see. So, the factories are running at full speed, and we're delivering every car we make and keeping operating margins strong," said Musk.
Despite the company's strong growth, he admits Tesla is still tiny in the big picture: "We are still a very small percentage of the total vehicles on the road. Of the 2 billion cars and trucks on the road, we only have about 3.5 million. So, we've got a long way to go to even reach 1% of the global fleet."
That said, there has been a monumental shift to electric vehicles in the past year, prompting Musk to say, "I think the public, at large, realizes that everyone's moving towards electric vehicles and that it's foolish to actually buy a new gasoline car at this point because the residual value of that gasoline car is going to be very low. So, I think we have to be in a very good spot."
That means there are two billion cars that could be retired in the coming years and replaced with electric vehicles. Therefore, the consumer pool will only get bigger and demand for EVs will continue to grow,
Back in 2023, Tesla put together a rather unique Supercharger site idea - one with a CyberCanopy. This canopy is intended to provide solar power for Supercharging, helping to reduce the impact on the local grid while also providing a futuristic and Cybertruck-themed location that would set it apart.
Unfortunately, the plans never moved beyond the filing stage. Instead, Tesla opened a standard-looking Supercharger at the same Canton, Massachusetts location. However, the site is still well-situated just off the highway and benefits from natural tree cover in the parking area.
However, Tesla is at it again with a concept for another CyberCanopy with RGB lighting. Thanks to MarkoRP for spotting this. No April Fool’s this time.
We want to build a few Superchargers cool enough to be worthy of the trip itself. - Max de Zegher
CyberCanopy 2
This second Supercharger with CyberCanopy is set for Roswell, New Mexico, at the Whataburger in town. Featuring just eight stalls, this will be one of Tesla’s smaller Supercharger sites, but for what it lacks in size, it makes up for it in uniqueness. The charging stalls are covered from the rain by a futuristic, Cybertruck-themed canopy, which will have solar panels installed on the top of it.
According to the plans, the CyberCanopy boasts 20.88kW of solar panels on its roof, providing shelter from the elements while also providing some power back to the grid.
RGB Lighting
At nighttime, the Supercharger will make a big statement. Tesla intends to light the long edges of the canopy, which will not only look amazing, but it’ll actually make finding the Supercharger easier in a large parking lot.
The lighting coming off the edge of the canopy reminds us a lot of the lightbar on the Cybertruck and now the new Model Y. It’s definitely the direction Tesla is moving for all their models, so expect all future models to have it, including the new Roadster and the next-gen model.
Tesla’s Max de Zegher also took to X after the plans for the new Supercharger were found and shared the image above. He stated that Tesla wants to build a few cool Superchargers that will be worth stopping at, even if they’re out of the way a little bit. So it seems like this isn’t just a concept, but an idea that Tesla wants to expand to several areas around the country or world.
We want to build a few Superchargers cool enough to be worthy of the trip itself. Wish we could have kept it under wraps for longer, but submittal was needed for Planning Approval. We can't hide anything from @MarcoRPi1! 🙂 pic.twitter.com/X2WaKDd408
This particular site doesn't have a Megapack or other form of energy storage, unlike the upcoming Harris Ranch Supercharger site in California. That means that Tesla won’t be storing the solar energy gained from this site, but instead will be either offsetting the immediate grid impact or serving energy back to the grid when the site isn’t actively charging.
Tesla will likely be incorporating V4 Superchargers, including both V4 posts and the new, more powerful V4 Cabinets, as the permit states that Tesla will be redesigning the site internally before beginning construction. For Cybertruck owners, 500kW charging may be around the corner.
We’re hoping Tesla continues to deploy these kinds of Supercharger sites around the world - they make a stylistic statement about Tesla’s futurism, like the Shell gas station that was upcycled into a Supercharger site earlier this year in Spain.
They also make a big impact for ownership because it is a far more comfortable charging experience when you stop at a site that’s shaded from the elements - and one that’s better for the environment with offset emissions.
It was a rainy April 1st when a news-searching author went on a delve into the depths of April Fools to find fact from falsehood. And while we found a lot of fantastic jokes, we also found some good ideas.
So, with a shoutout to MarcoRP on X, whose April Fool’s Joke gave us a good run for our money for a couple of minutes, we thought to ourselves - what would a Cybercab Charging Station / Cleaning Hub really look like?
Cybercab Wireless Charging Sites
Now, before continuing, we’d like to point out that the image up top is a joke from Marco - it isn’t an accurate or real site map submission from Tesla. However, it gave us the impetus to think critically about what is required for a Robotaxi fleet, based primarily on the Cybercab, to be able to service a city.
Requirements
Tesla will likely need to charge a small fleet of Cybercabs at a single time and in a single place. That means that the site needs to be large enough to cover a major metro area while also still being compact enough to not cost too much money to build out.
In addition, we need to factor in charge times. The Cybercab is likely to launch with a battery around 50 kWh, which will result in a range of approximately 300 miles. With that much range, the average Cybercab may not need to charge more than once or at all during daytime shifts, so instead, most of the vehicles will charge overnight.
MarcoRP
Math and Charge Times
The overnight charging means that most of these vehicles could be charged slowly. When we did some back-of-the-napkin math last year, we determined that Tesla’s wireless charger will likely peak around 17 kW (for comparison, Tesla’s Wall Connector at 32 amps charges at about 7 kW). If we scale Tesla’s wireless charger down slightly to 10 kW, accounting for some energy loss and the potential size of the site, that means a Cybercab will be able to charge in about 5 hours.
Tesla’s upcoming V4 Supercharger unit can currently handle 1.5MW per cabinet, but this slower-speed charging is A/C, not DC, which means there is a step-down loss of about 3-5%. Let’s make that a comfortable 10% for any other overages, but we can estimate around 1.35MW of power. That 1.3MW will easily handle charging up to 100 Cybercabs at once - all wirelessly, using Tesla’s unique beam-forming and beam-steering technology to keep efficiency high at every single stall.
Within about 5 hours, a whole fleet of 100 Cybercabs could be charged overnight when electricity rates are cheaper and still be out in time for the morning commute.
While this is all just hypothetical, it really does make sense that Tesla will be establishing these sites that won’t require much space or a ton of energy.
Tesla recently curtained off a large section of the parking garage at Giga Texas, as well as some of their chargers on the eastern end of the facility, leading us to believe they may just be testing this at scale internally.
There’s a lot to look forward to with Tesla’s V4 Supercharger deployment coming this year and with Robotaxi launching in just a couple of months.
