Tesla Semi not using 4680 cells; 50k units by 2024

The Semi's interior features two horizontal displays

Tesla

Elon Musk is quite a salesperson, but on December 1, 2022, Tesla’s CEO will take on the role of sales and delivery when he hands over the first production in-person to Pepsi. It’s fitting that it will happen at a company that has used slogans like: The Choice of a New Generation, A Generation Ahead and Generation Next.

Tesla will use that day to mark the beginning of a significant ramp-up in the production of the highly anticipated heavy-load haulers. Musk brought investors up to speed on the Semis during the quarter three earnings call.

Tesla's Q3 Earnings Call

Tesla Semi Batteries

It’s been expected that the Semi would use the more advanced 4680 battery, but Musk shot that down, “Okay. The Semi doesn’t use 4680s,” he said when asked about deploying the batteries across the fleet. Instead, he said they are being used in Model Y as they continue to grow the production of the pack.

The company reported that manufacturing of the 4680 cells has tripled in the quarter and continues to snowball. Musk said, “production of 4680 ramp-up is growing exponentially. And yes, it’s going well. We’re just looking at this. It’s going to be a major pack in the future.” He later added, “we still feel confident that 4680 will be the most competitive battery cell in the world.”

It’s assumed the Semi uses the 2170 battery, but that doesn’t change the power and range that the company has been advertising, “very important, no sacrifice to cargo capacity, 500-mile range. Just to be clear, 500 miles with the cargo,” repeated Musk.

Future Production

The CEO also predicted the numbers when they increase production in the coming years. “And we’ll be ramping up Semi production through next year. As I think everyone knows at this point, it takes about a year to ramp up production. So, we expect to see significant — we’re tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.” He added that Tesla would expand beyond North America.

Tesla Semi achieves 0 to 60 MPH in 5 seconds (20 seconds under a full load)

Not a Tesla App

Since he was talking to investors, he pointed out the value of the Semis, “I don’t want to say the exact prices, but they’re much more than a passenger vehicle. So, with a few thousand heavy trucks of this nature, it would be worth several Model Ys.”

It’s been five years since Musk arrived at a Tesla event in a Semi to introduce the vehicle that will change the trucking industry. So here is a story to refresh your memory: Everything We Know About the Tesla Semi.

Tesla Semi Unveiling

Musk Teases New Model for Early 2025 That Will Use a Mix of Next-Gen and Current Platforms

“We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025”. This was one of the key sentences that were part of Tesla’s deck shared on Tuesday directly before its financial results.

Since Reuters’ report a few weeks ago saying Tesla had “scrapped” the highly expected cheaper model— which Elon quickly denied on X —retail and institutional shareholders started asking for more details on Tesla’s product roadmap for 2024 and beyond.

In the earnings conference call, Elon Musk reiterated that Tesla expects to launch the next model in “early 2025, if not late this year”.

“We've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of previously mentioned start of production in the second half of 2025. So, we expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year. “

Over concerns of temporary production halts to update the factories for these new models, Musk said that Tesla will produce new models with certain aspects from their next-generation platform and current models. This will reduce the number of changes needed on production lines and allow Tesla not only to ramp up production faster but also to get the vehicles to market quicker.

Model Y Redesign

Tesla appears to hit that their next-gen vehicle will be less “next-gen” than they were initially aiming for, but to get a new vehicle out the door by late 2024, the process would already have to be in motion. Tesla may likely be referring to the redesigned Model Y, which is expected to reuse many parts from the new Model 3. Earlier this year, Tesla said that the redesigned Model Y will not be released this year, so it makes sense that they’re looking to speed up that production.

Tesla CEO concluded by saying that these measures will allow Tesla to reach a capacity of over 3 million units. Tesla produced 1.84 million vehicles in 2023. However, this year they’re ramping up Cybertruck production and introduced the new Model 3 into new markets.

And we think this should allow us to get to over 3 million vehicles of capacity when realized to the full extent.

Tesla reported on Tuesday its earnings results followed by a conference call where it teased its upcoming Robotaxi and its next-generation platform saying its “purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary ‘unboxed’ manufacturing strategy”.

Earlier in the day, Tesla announced the new Performance variant of its sedan Model 3 with deliveries in the United States starting already next month. The new version starts at $45,490 (after applying the $7,500 Federal EV tax credit) and goes from 0 to 60mph in 2.9 seconds.

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Tesla on FSD: Close to License Deal With Major Automaker, Announces Miles Driven on FSD v12

On Tuesday Tesla reported its earnings results followed by a conference call that brought several updates on the company’s roadmap for future vehicles, autonomous driving, Optimus and much more.

While answering a question from Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney about updates on the licensing of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Elon Musk said they’re talking to one major auto manufacturer and there’s “a good chance” the company signs the first deal before year-end. However, he went on to say that it would probably be three years before the necessary changes are integrated into the car.

I think we have a good chance we do sign a deal this year

Brings Benefits to Tesla

The technology would require other automakers to start using the same cameras and hardware as Tesla, meaning that Tesla may not only generate money from licensing FSD but also from selling the hardware itself. However, there would be other benefits as well. When licensing FSD, Tesla would likely own the data gathered with the system well, further helping them with data and edge cases that need to be solved to reach full autonomy.

people don't understand all cars will need to be smart cars… Once that becomes obvious, I think licensing becomes not optional.

Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja commented pointing out that future partners “take a lot of time in their product life cycle” resulting in a gap between the deal signing and the arrival in the market of Tesla’s FSD software.

Miles Driven With FSD

On the conference call, Musk added that Tesla now has over 300 million miles that have been driven with FSD v12 since it was launched just last month. He added that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.

Tesla said it will continue to increase its “core AI infrastructure capacity in the coming months” adding that in the first quarter, it completed the transition to hardware 4.0 with China now receiving the upgraded FSD computer and cameras.

Over the weekend, Tesla reduced the price of FSD dropping it from $12,000 to $8,000 for customers in the United States and from CA$16,000 to CA$11,000 in Canada.

Earlier this month, Tesla implemented a 50% price reduction for FSD subscriptions in the U.S. and introduced the subscription model in Canada at a great value of CA$99 per month.

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