Tesla Q1 Earnings: Robotaxi in 2024, Cybertruck in 2023, Record profit

April 20, 2022

By Gabe Rodriguez Morrison

Tesla continues to simplify the manufacturing process

Financial Results

Tesla just reported first-quarter results for 2022 and beat analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines. Despite factory shutdowns, inflationary pressures and semiconductor chip shortages, the automaker delivered 310,000 vehicles, up 81% YoY.

Revenue also rose 81% to $18.6 billion from $10.39 billion a year ago, thanks to higher average car prices and increased vehicle sales, the company said.

For the period ending March 31, 2022, Tesla reported $3.22 earnings per share. Since posting a record profit, shares have risen as much as 6% in after-hours trading.

Tesla vehicle deliveries since 2018

Challenges This Quarter

In its letter to investors, Tesla said supply-chain problems and raw-material prices costs have increased “multiple-fold”.

"Our own factories have been running below capacity for several quarters,” Tesla said in its shareholder deck. The company did not give detailed guidance on deliveries going forward, but said it expects 50% annual growth on a multi-year basis, and warned that supply chain constraints are likely to continue through 2022."

Tesla said that a spike in COVID-19 cases caused a temporary shutdown of the Shanghai factory and shortages in the company’s supply chain.

Tesla had its most profitable quarter

“Although limited production has recently restarted, we continue to monitor the situation closely,” the company said.

The ramp-up in the newer Texas and Berlin gigafactories will also depend on supply-chain obstacles, Tesla said.

“Factory ramps take time, and Gigafactory Austin and Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg will be no different.”

The company also stated it would release its Full-Self Driving to all U.S. customers that opted for the $12,000 package “before the end of this year.”

Energy

Tesla’s solar deployments dropped by 50% YoY to 48 MW this past quarter. The company deployed 846 MWh of battery storage systems, up 90% YoY, but down from the previous quarter. The company said declines in solar deployments were caused by supply chain constraints on certain components.

Insurance

Tesla says they are the 2nd largest insurer of Teslas in the state of Texas, and could be the largest by the end of next quarter. Tesla is now a fully integrated provider of insurance in the states (list of states) where they have released their insurance product.

Cybertruck and Robotaxi

On the earnings call, Elon confirmed Cybertruck production to begin in 2023 and a vehicle built for autonomy, without a steering wheel or pedals to be produced in 2024 which would be "a massive driver of Tesla's growth."

Elon also reiterated his stance on Tesla's optimus robot, saying that it has more potential opportunity than the car business over time.

When asked about raw materials and scaling to extreme size, Elon stated that Lithium mining is the limiting factor to production. He later said that "Tesla will likely need to help the industry on this."

When asked about the future of EV affordability, Elon stated that the robotaxi will provide the lowest cost per mile of transport ever, a 5x-10x reduction, making it accessible to everyone. Based on their projections, it appears that a robo taxi will cost less than a subsidized bus/subway ticket.

Earnings Overview

Twitter user @DBurkland put together this overview of everything that was discussed during the earnings call.

Opening remarks from Zach Kirkhorn

Per unit vehicle costs increased due to inflation, raw material costs, and supply chain constraints
Slight shift towards more profitable vehicles like the Model Y
Energy business continues to be impacted by macro conditions more than vehicle business (chip constraints)
Achieved record operating margin over 19% amidst construction of 2 new factories (Giga Berlin & Giga Texas)
Tesla has reduced debt (excluding product debt) to nearly 0
Lost 1 month of build volume lost due to COVID-related shutdowns at Giga Shanghai (will dramatically affect Q2 delivery numbers)
Inefficiencies of ramping process at Giga Berlin & Texas will affect bottom line
Tesla still believes 50% YoY growth w/ vehicle production in 2022 is still achievable

Opening remarks from Elon Musk

Record deliveries and production even with many headwinds
Even with COVID shutdowns in Giga Shanghai Elon believes they still have a shot at 60% YoY growth for 2022
Two new factories opened in Q1 and exponentially ramping (Giga Berlin & Giga Texas) with higher production volumes achievable by end of this year
Just crossed 1m units in the last year however long way to go as Tesla aspires to produce 20m units per year (only 5% towards their goal)
Elon never more excited for Tesla and their future then he is now
Robotaxi
- Highly optimized for autonomy (no steering wheel or pedals)
- Numerous other innovations
- Fundamentally optimized for lowest fully considered cost per mile, accounting for everything (very powerful product)
- Expect to reach volume production of Robotaxi in 2024
CyberTruck
- On track for volume production in 2023
Optimus
- Elon surprised people weren’t more excited for this but he thinks folks will fully understand its capabilities & impact will be greater than FSD or vehicle businesses
Energy
- Battery & solar production will improve as supply chain issues are resolved

Q&A

FSD Development Progress

Elon has never seen more false dawns than with the development of FSD. Real world AI has to be solved for (nobody has solved yet) and with our roads designed for humans, NNs & cameras have to be solved in a way that is on-par with (and exceeds) the capabilities of humans. Elon still believes they will deliver on FSD in 2022. Best way to realize this is participate in FSD beta program and experience it for ourselves as they’ll be expanding the program later this year. Still targeting new FSD release cadence of every 2 weeks.

Giga Shanghai Shutdown

Production is coming back with a vengeance and Elon expects weekly production records to be broken as they work to catch up. Still possible to match / exceed Q1 numbers however Q3 & Q4 are expected to be record quarters in terms of production. Elon believes Tesla will easily be able to produce 1.5m vehicles this year.
It’s important for new factories to target limited configurations during ramp and that is why both Giga Berlin & Giga Texas are hyper-focused on producing the Model Y.
Ramp period (5k per week) takes typically 9-12 months from start of production however it’s possible for Tesla to ramp sooner based on their experience.

Price Increase

Elon says it is understandable that there are many folks questioning price increases especially amidst record profitability however the price increases are there to account for an increase in raw materials costs and potential supply chain constraints in the future (since vehicle deliveries are a year out).

State-based Dealership Laws

Tesla would love federal-based laws that allows direct sales across the country however congress is not willing to take up this sort of legislation at this time (so Tesla is approaching it on a state-by-state basis)

800V Battery Architecture

Tesla is not ignoring the reality that they can go to a higher voltage however there is not any compelling reason to change at this point
Going from 400V to 800V might save them $100 per vehicle (however requires changing all of the backend infrastructure)
Switching to 800V might make sense down the road however Tesla needs to increase vehicle volume to absorb the cost of moving from 400V to 800V first
For larger vehicles where higher power on the battery side and/or charging side is required (where current requirements go up), savings can be seen by increasing voltage as it would reduce semiconductor needs (and thus save $)
- Tesla is considering different voltages for CyberTruck and Semi
- For 3, Y, and Robotaxi they see no need to switch

4680 Batteries

Tesla is working in all areas that they described during the battery day event and making good progress
Going to take several years to achieve the cost savings and performance numbers they described during battery day
4680 structural pack will be competitive with the best alternatives later this year and exceed the best alternatives next year
New chemistries hinted at however will be included in 4680 production later on
Based on Giga Texas factory construction, the 4680 production equipment cost 5x less than what it would have been with other battery cell designs
- Cost model well understood, rate and yield will be better understood as they ramp over next few years
Giga Berlin will transition to 4680s from 2170s later this year
Giga Texas has the capability to produce non-structural pack for 2170s (mitigation)
- Volume production for 4680s in Giga Texas targeted by end of Q3, for sure Q4
- Sizable cell inventory thanks to Giga Shanghai shutdown and allows them to be more deliberate in 4680 development (gives them some breathing room during ramp)
- 4680 production not a risk to achieving vehicle production target in 2022 however would be in 2023

Raw Materials Required To Scale

Tesla needs to think about tonnage of Nickel, Iron Phosphate, Graphite, Separators, Electrolytes for the world as a whole
Then take action on limiting factors that get in the way of the advent of a sustainable energy future
Tesla is thinking about mining & refining Lithium is a current limiting factor and responsible for cost growth per cell as of late (single biggest on a percentage basis)
Lithium only makes up only 2-3% of a Li-Ion cell (5kg per car)
Cathode (Nickel & Iron Phosphate) is the heaviest in terms of cost and raw materials composition of a battery cell
Exciting announcements on the raw materials topic in the months to come, Elon hinted to a follow up call / event
Tesla committed to recycling at all cell factories, recycling 50T per week in Reno (ramping to 150T) which is putting materials right back into their Cathode supply chain
As they are building new vehicles at new factories, Tesla is recycling everything they can from a raw materials perspective
Tesla figured out they can recycle cast aluminum wheels from retired ICE cars and throw it into their aluminum melting pot and use for vehicle body production for 3 & Y
Half of Tesla’s products were LFP-based in Q1 2022 which shows how nimble they are regarding battery chemistry
- Also looking at other cathode options to give Tesla further agility
Some of the challenges with Lithium market are not related to supply & demand fundamentals (frustrating to Tesla)

Giga Berlin & Texas Ramping related to Giga Shanghai

Elon thinks they need to ramp Berlin & Texas faster than Shanghai as they are more experienced now and have learned so much in the simplification of Model Y production
Body line for front & rear cast underbody + structural pack is 60% smaller than it would be otherwise in terms of equipment required
If you are waiting for the best Tesla ever you will be waiting forever as they are constantly improving

Robotaxi

Unveiling event sometime next year, Elon doesn’t want to go into too many details until then
Volume production in 2024
Sizable investment required to build robotaxi production lines

Prices Over Time

Elon wants to make EVs as affordable as possible however this has become very difficult due to inflation (40-50yr high)
Likely to continue for remainder of 2022
Long term contracts with suppliers have helped Tesla keep costs down longer than expected but eventually they run out
20-30% cost increase from suppliers over last year which is why Tesla has raised their prices
Lithium margins are practically software margins right now (Elon encouraging more to get into this business)

CyberTruck

Ignoring battery cells Tesla believes the CyberTruck is made of 20-30% less parts than a typical pickup truck

Giga Nevada

Room for expansion there and the plan is to expand production at Giga Nevada further
Majority of battery cells will be produced at Giga Texas going forward

COVID Shutdowns in China

Elon doesn’t think recent COVID shutdowns in China will negatively impact production elsewhere

Elon compensation

No plans or talks to increase Elon’s compensation further

3rd Party Access to Supercharger Network in USA

Tesla plans to provide 3rd party vehicle access to the entire world and remains committed to that
Tesla is pursuing a technical solution to address the difference in charging connector in the US (magic dock)
Growth of Supercharger network is being accelerated to match increase in vehicle production

Tesla Insurance

In state of Texas Tesla is the second largest insurer of Teslas and should be #1 in the next quarter
Working to get 80% of states access to Tesla insurance by end of year at which point they’ll look to expand to other markets
Having realtime feedback for driving habits (safety score program) is proving helpful to Tesla owners w/ Tesla insurance as it directly relates to a lower rate
When a crash happens it gives Tesla a new feedback loop to improve vehicle design, reduce costs, etc (End-to-end visibility)

You can also find outlines from previous earnings calls on his website DBurkland.com.

Tesla Activates Sentry Mode on Vehicles at Service Centers and Showrooms to Deter Vandalism

March 23, 2025

By Not a Tesla App Staff

Not a Tesla App

Following the recent spate of misguided violence against Tesla - which has targetted both private owners, as well as Tesla’s showrooms, service centers, and Supercharger sites, owners have been requesting Tesla to improve Sentry Mode and enable the B-pillar cameras. Tesla is now also looking to Sentry Mode to help protect their showrooms and service centers.

Service Mode Sentry Mode

In response to violence being directed at customer vehicles awaiting repairs at collision centers or awaiting delivery at showrooms, Tesla will now enable Sentry Mode on any vehicles that are parked at a Tesla service or Tesla collision location. They will also enable Sentry Mode on vehicles that are being prepared for delivery or are in delivery holding lots.

This change was announced by Elon Musk, following requests from many owners and followers on X for improvements to Sentry Mode following increased Tesla-focused vandalism.

This could put some additional stress on Tesla employees since Sentry Mode uses additional energy when active, meaning that employees will be required to plug in each vehicle about once per week, based on the amount of energy Sentry Mode uses. Tesla is still planning on improving the power efficiency of Sentry Mode in a future update.

While enabling Sentry Mode won’t directly prevent vandalism, such as vehicles honking or playing music when a threat is detected by Sentry Mode, this could help reduce the continued violence by making it easier for Tesla and Tesla owners to get video footage of the vandals.

By doing so, Tesla can ensure that they’re able to press charges against vandals, which will help to dissuade this misguided behavior. Hopefully, just the news that these cars are always recording - even when parked and awaiting repair or delivery - will give these would-be vandals a second thought before committing a crime.

While Elon didn’t mention whether this change would be limited to the United States, we expect that, at the very minimum, it will also include Canada, where 80 cars were recently damaged by vandals overnight at a service center while awaiting repairs. Ideally, this change will be rolled out globally and will help improve security at Tesla’s locations throughout the world.

The Backlash Against Tesla: Who’s Really Paying the Price?

March 22, 2025

By Not a Tesla App Staff

Chicago Police stand outside a Tesla Showroom.

Not a Tesla App

Elon Musk has always been a bit of a celebrity and not always one that has been well received. With his many different companies - including Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, Neuralink, X, and xAI, he’s spread throughout many high-tech fields and has a massive say in the way technology impacts the lives of many.

Most recently, Elon has taken to the fore of the US government under the Trump Administration and is running the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Here, he’s been tasked with reducing government spending.

These moves, in addition to what looked like an inappropriate hand gesture at a Republican rally last year, have led to him being labeled a Nazi - and those who own his cars or support his companies - as Nazi sympathizers. This is particularly true for Cybertruck owners.

We’re not calling for Elon to step down or stop - that’s beyond the scope of this opinion piece. Instead, we’re hoping that we make a point - harming real people and their property is a step too far, especially when they haven’t done anything other than spend their money or choose their place of employment.

Boycotts and Protests

Few CEOs are as active in politics as Elon is - and that’s made him and his companies the targets of protestors who don't agree with the changes and policies. This has led to boycotts of Tesla, protests outside factories, Supercharger sites, and showrooms.

Interestingly, some protestors at several locations throughout the United States have admitted they are being paid to protest. This isn’t surprising or new - political activist organizations sometimes bring in paid protestors to pad crowd numbers or guide the protestors toward their goals. While we can’t say whether this is true or not at this time, Elon appears to believe so, as per a post on X on the 8th of March.

Some of the protests have descended into violence, which has likely been escalated by people in a crowd mentality. An example of this is the incident at Tesla’s NYC Meatpacking showroom - where the crowd attempted to break down the doors and enter the showroom, putting the lives of innocent employees and customers at risk.

While protesting is a right, harming others and harming private property is not, regardless of personal beliefs or political opinions. This is what we’d like to emphasize here - harming or threatening Tesla’s employees and their customers isn’t making for a better world - it is hurting real people - members of your community. Some of them may have stood in solidarity with you just mere months ago at the voting booths, but now the simple ownership of a Tesla vehicle is considered extreme.

Vandalism and Who It Impacts

The protests are really just the tip of the iceberg. There have been ongoing and escalating incidents of vandalism - both at Tesla’s showrooms and Superchargers, as well as of private vehicles.

Vandalism is a crime - full stop. Attacking others and their private property with the intent to harm them isn’t an effective means to portray a message - it is political violence. Harming others is never the correct option - and is the worst way to push your message.

Vandalism of a private vehicle doesn't hurt Tesla. That vehicle will be repaired with parts sold by Tesla, paid for by the owner’s insurance. Those insurance costs will be passed down to customers everywhere - whether they’re Tesla-specific or not. Tesla will have made money replacing parts or replacing a vehicle because nearly 70% of Tesla’s customers continue to buy Tesla.

The vandalism isn’t focused on just private vehicles either - much of it has hit Tesla’s showrooms - which have been shot at in the US - and one was even burned down overnight in France. These vandals have also been targeting Tesla’s lots - and damaging cars on their way to customers. Once again, Tesla is insured against all of this - and will only be making replacement vehicles and fixing the damage - just like they did with the arson incident at a Supercharger site - where they replaced the Supercharger in under 48 hours.

Superchargers are public charging infrastructure. Damaging them doesn’t just affect Tesla owners - it impacts all EV drivers. Many Supercharger sites are open to other electric vehicles and serve as a vital charging option, especially in remote areas where charging options may be limited.

Additionally, some Supercharger stations are sometimes partially or fully funded by government grants aimed at expanding EV infrastructure. Acts of vandalism only harm local communities by undermining efforts to build essential public resources.

Sales and Stock

Tesla’s stock and sales have also been hit hard by the recent boycotts and response to Elon’s political activity.

Several analysts are predicting that Tesla’s deliveries in Q1 2025 are expected to be the lowest in the last three years - which will likely be a big hit. On the flipside, Elon is still optimistic about the stock - and has mentioned that the long-term benefits of holding Tesla far outweigh the short-term tensions.

However, Tesla’s stock also swings heavily with the market and is one of the most actively traded stocks by retail investors - both regular stocks and options included. The US markets have been on a relatively downward trend, with the Trump administration telling people to tighten their belts and prepare for a potential recession in the coming months.

These indicators aren’t very clear - and the ramp of the refreshed Model Y will have an impact on sales as Tesla won’t be able to deliver as many vehicles as they normally do.

Musk Owns Only 12% of Tesla

At the end of the day, these protests and all this vandalism only serve one purpose. It hurts hardworking citizens of the countries these events are happening in - whether the United States, Canada, Germany, France, or others.

They don’t impact Elon as much because he owns a small percentage of Tesla. Elon owns 12.8% of Tesla as of February 28, 2025. There are several other large stakeholders who own nearly as much as he does - and hundreds of thousands of retail shareholders. His fortune is so large that even if he lost his entire stake in Tesla today, he’d still be worth over $200 billion.

This amount of money is almost unimaginable. If you were to be given $400,000 every single day since 0 BC - until today - you still wouldn’t be worth as much as Elon Musk. That amount of money is absolutely insane and ridiculous—when you consider how little it affects him and how much real harm it causes to everyday people, it’s clear it’s not the correct approach.

Tesla employs about 130,000 people worldwide. That’s 129,999 people who aren’t Elon Musk that are directly harmed by these actions, all for choosing to work at one of the most innovative tech companies - whose mission is to electrify the world.

Putting all that together - the protests, boycotts, and vandalism aren’t hurting Elon as much as they’re hurting everyone else. They’re hurting regular people. And these people who have been threatened or hurt are never going to look in the same direction as these misguided activists.

Instead, these would-be vandals would be better off redirecting their efforts to reach out to the political leaders in their regions and working on getting better representation - and ensuring that people come to the stands to vote next time there is an election. There is a proper, legal, and moral way to change someone’s mind - with discussion. Threats to damage their property and hurt them are not the way.

Wrapping it all up - harming people and their property is a crime - and it isn’t the way to change people’s minds in a democratic society. It does nothing to harm Elon Musk, and all it hurts are your neighbors and friends.