One idea that consistently comes up when discussing the future potential of FSD is the ability to order a Tesla and have it arrive at your home—completely autonomously.
Picture this: a car rolls off the assembly line at Giga Texas, drives itself to the outbound delivery lot, and merges onto the highway—completely driverless. Its destination? A customer in upstate New York. Along the way, the vehicle independently plans its charging stops, navigates traffic, and drives nonstop, no breaks needed, until it pulls into the buyer’s driveway.
Of course, there’s a lot to consider and break down - but Elon Musk doubled down and said that he intends to have Tesla vehicles deliver themselves autonomously by the end of 2025. We’re sure there are some stipulations to that, but it’s an exciting idea that could save Tesla thousands per vehicle sold.
The core idea is that FSD Unsupervised is nearing completeness, with the upcoming launch of Tesla’s first Robotaxi network slated for June. Once Tesla can demonstrate that Unsupervised driving is safe, it will expand beyond simply transporting passengers from Point A to Point B.
That will include moving vehicles from factory to consumer, which will vastly streamline Tesla’s delivery process - and really make a statement about how far Tesla is ahead of the competition.
Reduced Delivery Costs
One of the biggest keys for Tesla throughout its history has been its ability to drive down costs. Delivery costs add to the price of a vehicle, and it’s not just the price of transporting the vehicle, but the cost of the whole delivery experience — delivery center and personnel included.
Instead, if a future Tesla drives itself directly to the consumer, Tesla can further reduce the price of its vehicles or improve its profits.
Improved Customer Experience
Money aside, the real game-changer is that no other vehicle delivery experience will come close to Tesla’s. What other brand will be able to deliver a car that drives itself to your home—straight from the factory?
Having a vehicle deliver itself can also provide other benefits, such as faster delivery times for customers. The customer also won’t need to drive to a delivery center to pick up their vehicle. The vehicle would go directly from the factory to the customer without any steps in between.
There’s something undeniably futuristic about getting a notification on your phone, glancing outside, and seeing your brand-new Tesla autonomously pulling into your driveway.
Limitations
Of course, with any new process or feature - there will be limitations and hurdles for Tesla to address, and these will take time and effort.
Let’s discuss some of the hurdles Tesla will need to solve.
Charging Infrastructure
Besides achieving true autonomy, another big challenge will be charging infrastructure. No Tesla can currently plug itself in at a Supercharger - they’ll need access to the upcoming V4 Superchargers with Wireless Charging to take on a road trip autonomously.
That will be a challenging rollout in the initial few years, especially as Tesla hasn’t been actively replacing older V2 Supercharger sites just yet - and is instead focusing on deploying new ones. We imagine that the rollout of wireless charging will likely also be limited, and it is likely that only Tesla’s more premium vehicles and Robotaxis will receive wireless charging compatibility.
Autonomy Policies / Geographic Limitations
Tesla has been consistently hamstrung by red tape, and unsupervised deliveries will also be a massive hurdle to clear with many states and provinces, as well as at the federal level. That will be an implicit challenge for Tesla in the infancy of the Robotaxi network as well, but once approvals spread wider, we can see these restrictions being lifted and relaxed.
Mileage and Damage
One item that could be a sticking point for customers is mileage and damage. If your brand-new vehicle was damaged on its trip over, what would you do? You’d have to take it from your driveway right to the Service Center, effectively invalidating the entire experience.
Of course, many people will also want to see a low odometer on arrival of a brand new, fresh-from-factory vehicle - and that’s understandable. Having a car arrive with several hundred or even a thousand miles of wear and tear on the tires and paint could be a big negative as well.
What Is Likely to Happen
We think that Tesla will continue to ship vehicles longer distances - but perhaps once they’re offloaded at your local Service Center, an employee taps a button, and begins the self-delivery process. That eliminates many of the above problems we’ve outlined, including charging and additional mileage, while keeping many of the advantages intact.
For any customers who order a Tesla in Austin later this year, it’s possible Tesla could have the vehicle delivered directly to you.
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In a move that has both surprised and frustrated Tesla and non-Tesla owners, the New Jersey Turnpike Authority (NJTA) is actively removing Tesla Superchargers from its service plazas, replacing them under an exclusive agreement with Applegreen Electric—the company that operates the plazas.
This transition, which was officially announced by the Tesla Charging account on X, will see all 64 of Tesla’s V3 Supercharger stalls removed from the Turnpike. This has raised some eyebrows, especially as the Applegreen sites, which will only feature CCS1 plugs, won’t be online until later this year.
The New Jersey Turnpike Authority ("NJTA") has chosen a sole third-party charging provider to serve the New Jersey Turnpike and is not allowing us to co-locate. As a result, NJTA requested 64 existing Supercharger stalls on the New Jersey Turnpike to not be renewed and be… pic.twitter.com/sosNIwMfYu
Tesla’s presence on the Turnpike dates back to 2014 when the NJTA granted Tesla a pilot license for just eight Supercharger stalls. That then rapidly expanded, and by the end of 2023, Tesla had 64 V3 Supercharger stalls active across the Turnpike, boasting their usual impressive 99.9% uptime, with a 30% lower cost than competitors nearby.
With the increasing adoption of the North American Charging Standard (NACS) by other automakers, Tesla's network is becoming the de facto fast-charging standard for a growing number of non-Tesla EVs, which makes this decision even harder to justify. Not only will Tesla vehicles be unable to charge at these locations, but many new EVs with NACS ports will also be left out.
Applegreen
Applegreen’s chargers are less than ideal. They resemble gas stations for EVs, which is a huge step back from Tesla’s elegant solution. Besides currently only supporting CCS1 and CHAdeMO charging connectors, which leaves out the majority of EVs, they also provide a worse charging experience.
These locations are often more expensive than Tesla Superchargers, but just like Tesla, the price does vary by location. We spot-checked several locations and noticed that prices were roughly about 10% higher per kWh than a similar Tesla charger nearby. Applegreen’s chargers also include screens and a credit card slot, requiring customers to pay for their charging sessions, just as they would for gasoline.
While we don’t have statistics on their uptime, it’s hard to argue that it’d be better than Tesla’s, which has live monitoring and often fixes issues within hours, which was recently demonstrated when it rebuilt a Supercharger less than 48 hours after it was burned down. Many users complain of Applegreen’s chargers, saying they don’t work or are difficult to use. Their app on iOS currently has a 1.9 rating out of 5.
Tesla’s Proposal
The landscape for EV charging on the Turnpike shifted in March 2023, when the NJTA amended its agreements with Applegreen to make it an exclusive offering. Despite Tesla offering what it cites as above-market terms, which included upgrading all Superchargers on the Turnpike to include Magic Docks (NACS + CCS1 chargers) for universal EV compatibility and card readers for better billing for non-Tesla owners. Tesla also offered to co-host, allowing Applegreen chargers and Tesla Superchargers to be located side by side. However, NJTA still declined to let Tesla keep any of its existing Superchargers online.
This is clearly a move for Applegreen to capitalize on its property and generate revenue by installing its own branded chargers. However, with Applegreen’s chargers only having CCS1 cables, calling them “universally” compatible while making Tesla’s seem exclusive to Tesla vehicles is laughable. This is clearly a step in the wrong direction that will hurt all EV owners. If anything, NJTA should be requiring Applegreen to maintain Tesla’s Superchargers on the premises, while also allowing Applegreen to install their own chargers.
NJTA instead announced that Tesla must decommission its Superchargers soon, which will leave EV drivers without viable options while traveling on the 117-mile-long NJ Turnpike. That’s millions of dollars of Tesla charging infrastructure that’s already being used - being removed without a replacement in place for potentially months.
The decision has been met with some widespread criticism over the last few days. The reduced options, reduced convenience, increased costs, and reliability concerns are chief among the concerns of Tesla and other EV drivers. However, the lack of transparency behind the decision, as well as the exclusivity to Applegreen, has led many to accuse the NJTA of corruption and backdoor deals, including Elon.
Anticipating the worst, however, Tesla’s Supercharging team has been working to ensure charging continuity. Between 2022 and today, Tesla has proactively built 116 replacement Supercharger stalls at eight new locations just off the Turnpike, anticipating this would happen. While this will make it less convenient for EVs reliant on NACS, it won’t leave them stranded without a place to charge. Tesla’s trip planner has already been adjusted to route drivers to these new sites as well.
While Tesla is clearly invested in expanding access to electric vehicle charging - whether for its own direct customers or for other EVs, it seems that some organizations believe the easiest way to meet “green goals” is to find the solution that’s best for their pocketbook.
We’re hoping that these types of exclusivity deals don’t become common as they harm all current EV owners and reduce electric vehicle adoption.
With Tesla’s Robotaxi network poised for its initial launch as soon as June 12th, Elon and Tesla’s lobbying team are stepping up to speak to administrators about autonomy regulation. According to a report from Bloomberg(paywall), the team is working on a behind-the-scenes push in Washington to establish a federal framework for autonomous vehicles.
This push involves direct lobbying of members of the US Congress to build a clear legislative path for autonomy, and the timing is no coincidence. Tesla needs clear regulations to operate under, rather than the fractured state-by-state or city-by-city regulations that exist sporadically throughout the US.
Pushing for a National Standard
The report, citing insiders familiar with the matter, details that Elon has been personally involved in calls with legislators and has been weighing in on revisions to the bill introduced on May 15th, which aimed to establish a basic regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles. Tesla’s goal is to move this bill forward before Congress’s July 4th recess.
When the US Transportation Secretary visited Tesla earlier in May, Elon had some wise words to say on this topic, touching on the core issue: for a service to operate nationwide, navigating a patchwork of regulations is a legal and operational nightmare.
It’d be wonderful for the United States to have a national set of rules for autonomous driving as opposed to 50 independent sets of rules on a state-by-state basis. - Elon Musk
Federal Rules
While the initial Robotaxi pilot launch in Austin is more than feasible under Texas’s relatively permissive regulations, the long-term vision is severely hamstrung by federal rules. Current regulations only permit special exemptions for a test fleet of up to 2,500 vehicles that lack traditional controls, such as a steering wheel and pedals.
While this isn’t a direct roadblock for Tesla’s initial deployment of Model Ys in the Robotaxi network, this vehicle cap is a roadblock for the mass production and deployment of Tesla’s purpose-built Cybercab. The Cybercab, with its easy-to-clean interior, relatively low cost, and lower-maintenance design, is ideal to scale the service with a vehicle designed from the ground up to be autonomous, where it’ll be cheaper to operate and maintain. Remember that the Cybercab is expected to be capable of 5.5 miles per kWh, whereas the Model Y is capable of about 4. Tesla needs a federal law that allows for the widespread sale and operation of the Cybercab, as it’ll likely be crucial to make the network profitable.
The legislative push also comes as Tesla is coming under increasing scrutiny from regulators. The NHTSA is already probing Tesla’s Robotaxi plans and seeking answers about FSD’s performance in adverse weather conditions. Establishing a clear, Congressionally approved federal framework will not only create a more predictable and stable regulatory environment for Tesla to operate in, but it’ll actually make these vehicles safer by having one set of rules.
Difficult Road
This isn’t the first crack at creating national autonomous vehicle laws from Congress. Various bills have been attempted over the years, with one even passing the House in 2017 before getting stalled and dropped in the Senate. The primary obstacle has often been debates over legal liability and pressures from legal groups who have raised concerns about handling incidents with autonomous vehicles.
The new bill represents the latest effort to clear the maze of red tape, and Tesla’s direct involvement, along with the upcoming pilot launch of the Robotaxi network, provides some momentum to push this forward.
Tesla is on the verge of launching Robotaxi, which has massive implications for how we approach urban mobility as a society. However, just as in many other cases, the technology is advancing far faster than the glacial pace of bureaucracy, which means that lobbying is crucial to expedite the process of getting regulations in place as soon as possible.
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