One idea that consistently comes up when discussing the future potential of FSD is the ability to order a Tesla and have it arrive at your home—completely autonomously.
Picture this: a car rolls off the assembly line at Giga Texas, drives itself to the outbound delivery lot, and merges onto the highway—completely driverless. Its destination? A customer in upstate New York. Along the way, the vehicle independently plans its charging stops, navigates traffic, and drives nonstop, no breaks needed, until it pulls into the buyer’s driveway.
Of course, there’s a lot to consider and break down - but Elon Musk doubled down and said that he intends to have Tesla vehicles deliver themselves autonomously by the end of 2025. We’re sure there are some stipulations to that, but it’s an exciting idea that could save Tesla thousands per vehicle sold.
The core idea is that FSD Unsupervised is nearing completeness, with the upcoming launch of Tesla’s first Robotaxi network slated for June. Once Tesla can demonstrate that Unsupervised driving is safe, it will expand beyond simply transporting passengers from Point A to Point B.
That will include moving vehicles from factory to consumer, which will vastly streamline Tesla’s delivery process - and really make a statement about how far Tesla is ahead of the competition.
Reduced Delivery Costs
One of the biggest keys for Tesla throughout its history has been its ability to drive down costs. Delivery costs add to the price of a vehicle, and it’s not just the price of transporting the vehicle, but the cost of the whole delivery experience — delivery center and personnel included.
Instead, if a future Tesla drives itself directly to the consumer, Tesla can further reduce the price of its vehicles or improve its profits.
Improved Customer Experience
Money aside, the real game-changer is that no other vehicle delivery experience will come close to Tesla’s. What other brand will be able to deliver a car that drives itself to your home—straight from the factory?
Having a vehicle deliver itself can also provide other benefits, such as faster delivery times for customers. The customer also won’t need to drive to a delivery center to pick up their vehicle. The vehicle would go directly from the factory to the customer without any steps in between.
There’s something undeniably futuristic about getting a notification on your phone, glancing outside, and seeing your brand-new Tesla autonomously pulling into your driveway.
Limitations
Of course, with any new process or feature - there will be limitations and hurdles for Tesla to address, and these will take time and effort.
Let’s discuss some of the hurdles Tesla will need to solve.
Charging Infrastructure
Besides achieving true autonomy, another big challenge will be charging infrastructure. No Tesla can currently plug itself in at a Supercharger - they’ll need access to the upcoming V4 Superchargers with Wireless Charging to take on a road trip autonomously.
That will be a challenging rollout in the initial few years, especially as Tesla hasn’t been actively replacing older V2 Supercharger sites just yet - and is instead focusing on deploying new ones. We imagine that the rollout of wireless charging will likely also be limited, and it is likely that only Tesla’s more premium vehicles and Robotaxis will receive wireless charging compatibility.
Autonomy Policies / Geographic Limitations
Tesla has been consistently hamstrung by red tape, and unsupervised deliveries will also be a massive hurdle to clear with many states and provinces, as well as at the federal level. That will be an implicit challenge for Tesla in the infancy of the Robotaxi network as well, but once approvals spread wider, we can see these restrictions being lifted and relaxed.
Mileage and Damage
One item that could be a sticking point for customers is mileage and damage. If your brand-new vehicle was damaged on its trip over, what would you do? You’d have to take it from your driveway right to the Service Center, effectively invalidating the entire experience.
Of course, many people will also want to see a low odometer on arrival of a brand new, fresh-from-factory vehicle - and that’s understandable. Having a car arrive with several hundred or even a thousand miles of wear and tear on the tires and paint could be a big negative as well.
What Is Likely to Happen
We think that Tesla will continue to ship vehicles longer distances - but perhaps once they’re offloaded at your local Service Center, an employee taps a button, and begins the self-delivery process. That eliminates many of the above problems we’ve outlined, including charging and additional mileage, while keeping many of the advantages intact.
For any customers who order a Tesla in Austin later this year, it’s possible Tesla could have the vehicle delivered directly to you.
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In a live two-part interview with CNBC’s David Faber yesterday, Elon Musk laid out his ambitious near-term plans for Tesla’s Robotaxi Network and the broader rollout of Unsupervised FSD. Speaking from Giga Texas, Elon confirmed that Tesla will be launching its initial Robotaxi pilot service on Austin’s roads by the end of June 2025.
Tesla Already Testing Robotaxi With Safety Drivers
The upcoming Austin launch is the start of Tesla’s long-stated Robotaxi ambitions. After promising true FSD for years, it appears that Tesla is finally ready to debut it, albeit it’ll be closed to the public initially, and it will only be available on Tesla-owned vehicles for now.
Elon expressed confidence in that end-of-June timeline, revealing some of the extent they’ve gone to behind the scenes. Tesla has had test vehicles driving in Austin 24/7, currently with drivers in the cars. However, they’ve seen essentially no interventions required from the safety drivers during the testing phase, which is good news.
The initial deployment in Austin will be deliberately small to ensure that everything operates as expected.
"So we want to be very careful with the first introduction of unsupervised full self-driving, meaning that there’s the cars driving around with no one in it... Well, yes, and sometimes no one in it at all. Just going to pick someone up. So the car obviously has to be incredibly safe." - Elon Musk on CNBC
How the Robotaxi Network Will Operate
Musk said that Tesla intends to launch with just 10 Robotaxis for the first week and then slowly increase it to 20, 30, 40, and higher. All of that is to be done without a safety driver. Tesla will still have teleoperators supervising the vehicles remotely if they get stuck, but other than that, they will be in motion without an occupant in the driver’s seat.
The goal is to hit 1,000 active Robotaxis within a few months and then focus on expansion towards San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Antonio. While Tesla could start with 1,000 or 10,000 - given that the initial vehicles are just Model Ys, Tesla wants to keep a tight leash on the fleet and make sure that both the safety and experience are up to snuff.
Geofenced and Avoid Certain Intersections
To further increase safety during the early phases, Elon confirmed that Tesla will geofence the Robotaxis' operational areas within Austin, limiting them to parts of the city where Tesla has the highest confidence in the system's performance. He stated they would avoid intersections unless the system is proven to handle them well, or route around them. While the goal is for the cars to operate without safety drivers, there will be rigorous remote monitoring of the fleet's activities.
Looking at the broader regulatory picture, Elon acknowledged the current complexities, with rules varying by state and even by city. He reiterated his call for a "unified set of national regulations" for self-driving vehicles in the U.S. to ensure consistency and prevent a confusing patchwork of differing rules as vehicles travel across jurisdictions.
This seems to be a great idea, at least initially. Autonomous cars will be safer if they adhere to the same rules everywhere rather than having different rule sets based on the state. However, one issue is that pedestrians and human-driven vehicles may expect the vehicles to either perform or refrain from certain actions, such as not turning right at red lights, and having different rules for self-driving vehicles could cause confusion.
Adding Your Vehicle to the Robotaxi Network
During the interview, Elon painted a picture of a rapidly expanding fleet of privately owned Teslas capable of unsupervised FSD. He offered a bold prediction for the near future:
"My prediction is that probably by the end of next year [end of 2026] we will have probably hundreds of thousands, if not—... Over a million Teslas doing self-driving in the U.S. ... Unsupervised full self-driving, where you do not need to pay attention." - Elon Musk on CNBC
Tesla eventually plans to allow vehicle owners to add or subtract their cars from the Robotaxi fleet, creating a model he likened to a combination of Uber and Airbnb. This would allow owners to generate revenue when their vehicle isn’t being used, with Tesla receiving a portion of the revenue.
He also mentioned that Tesla owners will likely even make more from their cars participating in the fleet than their lease costs. Elon seemed confident in Tesla's ability to manage the logistics, stating, "Tesla has all the ingredients necessary to offer a vast self-driving fleet overnight."
Elon on Vision-Only and Licensing FSD
Elon also took the opportunity to emphasize that Tesla’s approach to autonomy, based on vision, is the ideal approach. The road system is designed for humans with eyes, so using neural nets with cameras is the ideal solution.
"Because the way that the road system is designed is for AI. It’s basically, I should say, it’s for intelligence, biological neural net, and eyes. That’s how the whole road system is designed. So what will actually work best for the road system is artificial intelligence, digital neural nets, and cameras... And what we found is that, when you have multiple sensors, they tend to get confused. So do you believe the camera or do you believe lidar? - Elon Musk on CNBC
While Tesla previously included radar in its vehicles, the disagreements between the radar and camera data led to uncertainty, prompting Tesla’s engineers to turn the radars off instead. The decision wasn’t about the expense, as per Elon’s comments, but rather on the reducing utility of other sensor types when camera vision becomes more accurate.
Elon also confirmed that Tesla is "very much open" to licensing its FSD technology to other major automakers and is currently in discussions with several. "The more we demonstrate the capability of self-driving, the more that they will want to license it, and we’re happy to help," he added.
Optimus and Learning
While the interview primarily focused on Tesla’s ambitions for autonomy, Elon also touched on other key aspects of Tesla’s business and future. He reiterated that Optimus and autonomy will “overwhelmingly” dominate the future financial success of Tesla. At multiple Earnings Calls, Elon has said much the same, so it's not surprising to see him stick to this belief.
Elon provided more color on Optimus's development, noting that while achieving the goal of billions of humanoid robots is at least a decade away, even with insatiable demand. He reaffirmed that the target of producing a million robots by 2030 was still reasonable. The training process is evolving; currently, human operators in motion capture (MOCAP) suits perform basic tasks (picking up objects, opening doors, dancing) to bootstrap the robot's intelligence.
The next threshold, Elon explained, is for Optimus to learn from watching videos, like YouTube "how-to" guides, enabling dramatic "task extensibility." Following that, "self-play," where robots learn by interacting with objects, like a child with toys, guided by a reward function, will be key.
Within five years, Tesla envisions Optimus being capable of household chores like doing dishes, walking the dog, and even proactively understanding and fulfilling user needs. This level of AI advancement requires immense compute. Elon confirmed Tesla's own Dojo training program, based in New York, is contributing, though Tesla will continue to buy many GPUs from Nvidia.
Watch the CNBC Interview
FULL ELON INTERVIEW ON CNBC (PARTS I & II)
Here's the complete, consolidated interview of Elon Musk with David Faber, recorded yesterday in two parts at Giga Texas. (The second part starts at 23:54)
Like Europeans, Australian Tesla owners have been eagerly awaiting the arrival of FSD for years, but it looks like there’s finally some good news coming. Thom Drew, Head of Tesla Australia, has confirmed that the company is actively working to bring FSD to Australian roads and, most importantly, sees no regulatory challenges blocking its path.
This update from Thom follows a video that was shared by Tesla’s AI account on X, where they showed off FSD successfully navigating the streets of Melbourne.
Speaking to Australia’s News.com, Thom Drew provided some context behind Tesla’s Australian FSD efforts. He noted that Elon’s push and focus is the deployment of FSD globally. The engineering team is working across a lot of markets to actively push out FSD wherever possible.
Notably, Drew emphasized the favorable regulatory environment in Australia. He specifically noted that “There’s currently no blockers in Australia to releasing FSD, as we have in North America.” While he didn’t provide a specific timeline for launch, it was clear he was enthusiastic.
The lack of a regulatory blocker is great news for Australians, as Tesla’s FSD efforts in Europe have been plagued with regulatory issues. While the Australian market poses some new challenges as a right-hand drive market, at least Tesla is in control there.
Hook Turn
At the end of the video above, FSD tackles something unique to Australia - the Hook Turn. This is a relatively unique maneuver that’s specific to Melbourne’s Central Business, where vehicles turn right from the far-left lane.
For those familiar with Melbourne, that maneuver is notoriously tricky—and at times even unsettling—since even experienced human drivers can struggle with the unusual complexity of that turn. Having FSD successfully demonstrate its skill in navigating these local complexities and laws is an indication that Tesla’s data-gathering methods work well and are scalable to unique location-based rules and regulations.
What This Means for Australian Owners
Given that Australian FSD is in active development and that there’s a clear regulatory path for Supervised FSD in Australia, that’s a good sign of things to come. It seems fairly likely that Tesla will be able to release FSD in Australia by the end of 2025, if not sooner.
Last year, Tesla initially said that RHD markets would receive FSD in Q1/Q2. With Q2 coming to an end in about a month, Tesla may not be too far off the mark here.
It's important to remember that this refers to FSD (Supervised), meaning the driver must remain vigilant and ready to take control at all times, consistent with its behavior in North America and China. However, Australia's lack of regulatory blockers is a huge advantage for Tesla compared to other regions like Europe and even China, where Tesla needed to jump through hoops to get FSD approved.
If you’re in Australia, keep an eye out; FSD may be coming sooner than you think.
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