Level 5 autonomy is the Holy Grail of modern driving technology. It is essentially the point at which autonomous vehicle will be wholly self-sufficient on the roads �" to the point that they may not even have steering wheels or pedals for drivers. And while this level of self-driving technology still seems like science fiction to many, we may also be closer to it than we think.
As was noted in our recap of Tesla discussions with the DMV, Elon Musk has even suggested that FSD will be at level 5 by the end of this year. Tesla's own engineers are dubious of this prediction, but it still speaks to the rapid progress some industry leaders are aiming for.
This begs the most interesting question of all, which is not when we'll see level 5 autonomous vehicles, but rather what a future with such vehicles will be like. Even if we reach this level at some time in the next five years it will represent a massive leap forward into an era that would once have seemed virtually impossible. So what exactly will it look like?
Public Transport Will Change
For a while now people have predicted that fully autonomous vehicles will ultimately replace taxis, Uber, and Lyft, such that whole fleets of robotic cars will be available to pick us up and drop us off as needed. Last year, we got an interesting look at a concept car that could serve this purpose when an Observer article on a GM unveiling showed us a self-driving vehicle that almost resembled a tiny bus or tram car. And for that matter, there is also the distinct possibility (if not inevitability) that autonomous tech will be used in city buses as well.
Add all of these possibilities up, and you quickly come to recognize a wholly evolved form of public transportation. This is one aspect of the transition to level 5 that is troubling to some, because unfortunately it will almost certainly mean a lot of job (and "gig") loss. Nevertheless, in time we'll almost certainly be summoning autonomous vehicles to move around town.
Vehicle Interiors Will Be Unrecognizable
It seems likely enough that the very first level 5 cars will resemble what we're used to. They may not have steering wheels or pedals, but for the most part they'll look like nice, modern cars �" because they will probably be ordinary modern cars adapted to level 5. Over time though, the fact that humans aren't needed to drive will likely result in completely changed interiors. We could see video screens for entertainment, chairs that swivel around to face the rear, lounge-style seating in ordinary sedans, and all kinds of other changes.
We'll Have Cyber Support for Cars
This is an interesting point to consider because it actually represents intersecting trends: that of progression toward autonomous vehicles, and that of general cybersecurity needs. Regarding the latter, our world already revolves so much around digital practices and automated systems that cybersecurity has become one of the busiest fields of work. Young people are studying the subject on their way up through school with the hopes of finding strong jobs in the field. And many working adults are pursuing cybersecurity via online courses, so as to qualify for what Maryville University's online bachelors in cybersecurity brochure describes as a "booming industry," with significant growth and six-figure salary positions.
In short, the digitization of our world is already giving rise to an army of cybersecurity experts, and it's a virtual certainty that they'll be needed in support of vast new networks of level 5 autonomous vehicles. We'll likely be replacing much of what we think of now as car service with software updates, security patches, and general cyber support. Maintaining a vehicle may well be more like maintaining a computer than a present-day gas car.
Gas & Service Stations Will Vanish
As mentioned just above, a lot of the regular maintenance for level 5 vehicles will concern digital adjustments. We'll download system updates and check in with cyber experts now and then, perhaps through entirely digital means. We won't, however, conduct ordinary maintenance as we think of it today, from loading up on gas to pulling into a station for an oil change or engine tune-up. Accordingly, gas and traditional service stations will begin to vanish, and perhaps one day completely disappear.
A New World of Regulations & Rules Will Emerge
One of the more pessimistic assessments of self-driving progress we've seen of late came via an article by Swinburne University of Technology professor, who argued that for several reasons we're still pretty far off. We could quibble with the tech argument to no end, but the interesting point made by said professor was that regulations are not yet in place to manage a society full of level 5 autonomous vehicles. This is indeed a large problem that will take time to solve, and which may delay the transition to self-driving vehicles even if and when the tech is all in place.Eventually though, it will be worked out, and a whole new world of road regulations and rules will emerge. The hope is that vehicles will seamlessly follow these rules and we won't have too much to worry about. But there will still be adjustments to make.
Throw in the fact that autonomous vehicles will be significantly more efficient and thus drastically better for our environment, and this all sounds pretty exciting! Here's hoping the self-driving future arrives sooner rather than later.
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During Tesla’s Q1 earnings call, Tesla talked about its plan for its upcoming robotaxi network and even showed off a design for the app that would allow customers to request vehicles, much like Uber and Lyft.
While Tesla plans to unveil the robotaxi, officially now called CyberCab this August, a true autonomous taxi is at the very least, a couple of years away. So why is Tesla so eager to show off an app and start offering a Tesla taxi service?
in 2023 Uber had a revenue of 37.28 billion, while Lyft had a much smaller revenue of 4.4 billion. For comparison, Tesla’s revenue last year was 96.77 billion. A taxi service, even one operated by humans can be incredibly lucrative. While Tesla’s ultimate goal may be an automated taxi service, they may be itching to get into the space.
Tesla’s robotaxi was initially supposed to be a taxi service owners would lend their vehicles to. While that’s still the plan, Tesla wants their own vehicles to be a part of the service as well.
Will the Robotaxi Service Start With Tesla Drivers?
Tesla comparing themselves to Airbnb and Uber during their earnings call is intriguing. While Tesla can start producing robotaxis almost whenever they want, it’d likely be smart to wait until autonomy is solved so they’re not limiting themselves to current FSD hardware.
While full autonomy is likely several years away, Tesla seems to be eager to make this push toward a Tesla-owned service. Is Tesla thinking about operating their own Uber-like service? Tesla could be thinking about releasing their future robotaxi app and service in “beta,” letting current Tesla owners operate their own vehicles on the service.
This could result in several benefits for Tesla, not only letting them test their service but also opening up another revenue stream. This would allow Tesla to start operating their robotaxi network as soon as this year, and then slowly replace drivers and owner vehicles with Tesla-owned robotaxis.
Tesla Shows Off Robotaxi App
Tesla showed off it's robotaxi app
At the earnings call, Tesla also showed off a design of their robotaxi app. While it feels early to design an app for a service that could be years away, Tesla appears to be preparing itself for the future and getting customers excited about the prospect.
Tesla showed off five screens of the app, essentially showing how you’d request a robotaxi, how you can view its progress, and control certain features of the vehicle. Through the various screens, you can see most of Tesla’s Autopilot features coming to fruition in terms of autonomy, such as summon, self-driving and eventually Autopark.
Summon - Much like Tesla has re-thought the interior of a car and so many features, you can see the same mechanics applied to the app. To request a vehicle, you simply hold down a summon button and you’ll be presented with an estimate of when a vehicle will arrive.
Set Preferences and Destination - On the second screen, you can see the vehicle’s current location on a 3D map, possibly alluding to future FSD visualizations. It also lets you set your destination and set the climate temperature to your preference.
Trip Progress - While you’re traveling in the vehicle, you’ll be able to view trip information as well as set entertainment options.
Recap
Tesla had a lot to talk about during their earnings call and specifically about the Robotaxi — more information was revealed than ever before.
While there are various things at play to make a service like this come together, we can easily separate them out into separate components.
There’s the robotaxi itself, which Musk recently said would be similar to Tesla’s next-gen vehicle without a steering wheel. However, during this earnings call, he revealed that Tesla will save its new “unboxed” manufacturing process for the robotaxi and use a more traditional method for their next vehicle.
Then there’s FSD itself, while it’s crucial to operating a driverless robotaxi network, it’s not necessary to start a Tesla taxi service.
The last piece is the ride-hailing component itself and how it’s managed, and Tesla was happy to show this off, which makes us believe that it may be closer to reality than many think. While Tesla needs all three of these components to come together to operate a true robotaxi network, they piece them together separately, much like they’ve done with Autopilot. Initially, Tesla only released auto-steer then slowly added on summon, Autopark and city driving.
When we look back at Tesla five years from now, we may very well look back to this earnings call and say this was the pivotal moment when Tesla started transitioning to a services company.
Tesla has invested billions of dollars over the years toward vehicle autonomy. The mission continues as Elon Musk and Tesla now prepare to unveil their ride-hailing product, Robotaxi this August. Or, as Musk called it on Tuesday, Tesla CyberCab.
Early Days
Five years ago, during Tesla’s Autonomy Investor Day in April 2019, Elon Musk said he felt “very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla in the following year [2020]”. At the time, Musk added a bolder claim, predicting that Tesla wouldn’t even make cars with steering wheels or pedals by 2022. While timeliness may not be Musk’s strong suit, he has a track record for getting things done that others were unwilling to try or thought were impossible. Musk later admitted he can be overly optimistic and said “sometimes I am not on time, but I get it done.”
Now, 5 years later, we have the robotaxi unveiling scheduled for August 8th. After the release of FSD v12, it’s clear that we’re much closer to autonomy than we were in 2019, although FSD v12 is still a far cry from full autonomy.
While Tesla still has the robotaxi unveiling scheduled for August, Tesla announced yesterday that it’d be prioritizing a simpler “next-gen” model that could be released by early 2025.
Latest Updates
On the conference call, Musk added that Tesla now has over 300 million miles driven with FSD v12 since it was launched just last month. He added that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.
Tesla said it has been investing in the hardware and software ecosystems necessary to achieve vehicle autonomy and a ride-hailing service. The company is confident that it can establish a scalable and profitable autonomous driving business by employing a vision-only architecture.
think of it [Tesla] as combination of Airbnb and Uber meaning that there will be some number of cars that Tesla owns itself and operates
Tesla = Uber + AirBnb
Later on, Elon Musk unveiled that the new service will operate and result in a mix between Uber and Airbnb where the Tesla driver decides if and when he wants his Tesla to be used and by whom. Tesla stated:
“We believe the Tesla software experience is best-in-class across all our products, and plan to seamlessly layer ride-hailing into the Tesla App.”
Tesla’s CEO clarified that the owners will be able to add or remove their car from the fleet “whenever they want” adding that it will be up to them to decide if they want to only let the car be used “by friends and family or only by five-star users or by anyone at any time”. The flexible program will, just like Airbnb, allow the owners to take the car out of the market when they want.
The upcoming ride-hailing service will enable users to easily request a Tesla vehicle, control the car's temperature, monitor its real-time location, and adjust the audio system. The only question is when.
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