Cox Automotive, the world's largest automotive services and technology provider, has released a forecast predicting that Tesla will lead the luxury market in Q1 2023 with sales of 180,000 units, a gain of nearly 40% from Q1 2022. As a result, Tesla is expected to post solid sales gains and surpass a market share of 5% for the first time. This marks a significant achievement for the electric car maker as it continues to gain market share in the luxury car market.
Improved Inventory and Lowered Prices to Spark Demand
By far, Tesla will be the top luxury-vehicle seller in the U.S. in Q1, with sales more than double that of BMW or Mercedes. This impressive performance is likely due to Tesla's innovative technology, sleek designs, and rising brand recognition.
Tesla's success in Q1 2023 is expected to be primarily driven by improved inventory levels and lowered prices. According to Cox Automotive, new-vehicle inventory levels have significantly improved from Q1 2022, which has helped stimulate sales despite elevated prices and high auto loan rates. Tesla also lowered its prices in the first quarter to spark demand.
Tesla's Record Quarter
Tesla's Q1 2023 sales are expected to reach 180,000, a record quarter for the company in the U.S. In addition, the company's growth trajectory continues to outpace its competitors, with Tesla's market share forecasted to surpass 5% for the first time. This puts Tesla on track to achieve its goal of selling 1 million electric vehicles per year, an ambitious target the company has set for itself.
Strong Outlook for Tesla
Cox Automotive's forecast is good news for Tesla investors and enthusiasts. The electric car maker has been expanding its production capacity to meet the rising vehicle demand. Tesla's Model Y, launched in 2020, has been a hit with customers, with the company ramping up production to meet the high demand. Tesla also plans to launch the Cybertruck, its first all-electric pickup truck, in 2022.
As more consumers look to switch to electric vehicles to reduce their carbon footprint, Tesla's growth prospects are expected to remain strong. The company's continued innovation in the electric car space and aggressive expansion plans could help it solidify its position as a leader in the automotive industry.
Other Key Take Aways from Cox
The release suggests a positive surprise for U.S. auto sales in Q1 2023. Still, supply constraints and affordability issues are expected to put a ceiling on what's possible for the rest of the year. Despite these challenges, Tesla's continued growth trajectory and strong performance in the luxury market are promising signs for the electric car maker.
General Motors is expected to finish Q1 as the top seller of new vehicles in the U.S., with sales volume forecasted to increase by over 15% year over year to reach 587,000 units. However, sales will drop from Q4 2022 when GM's volume hits 618,692.
The Bottleneck Has Passed, but Prices Are Too High
New-vehicle inventory levels have significantly improved from Q1 2022, up roughly 70% from the volume recorded in the early months of 2022. This has helped stimulate sales despite elevated prices and high auto loan rates.
Fleet sales for the entire year of 2023 are forecasted at 2.2 million, up 23% from 2022, when 1.8 million units were sold to commercial buyers.
Cox Automotive has adjusted its full-year new-vehicle sales forecast to 14.2 million, an increase of nearly 3% from 2022.
Elevated prices and average auto loan rates above 8% are expected to hold back new-vehicle sales for the rest of the year. The typical new-vehicle loan payment was more than $750 a month in Q1, which is out of reach for many households.
Tesla's sales forecasted to surpass 5% market share in Q1 2023 is a significant milestone for the electric car maker. Tesla's success in the luxury market is due to its innovative technology, sleek designs, and raising brand recognition. In addition, the company's improved inventory levels and lowered prices have helped stimulate sales despite elevated prices and high auto loan rates. With a record quarter forecasted for Q1 2023, Tesla's outlook remains strong, and the company continues to lead the charge in the electric car market.
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Just like how Carscoops spotted the refreshed Model S, they also spotted the refreshed Model Y, and this time, it was likely the Performance variant.
When Tesla launched the Launch Edition of the refreshed Model Y, they opened the floor to orders for the Rear-Wheel Drive (later introduced to the U.S.) and All-Wheel Drive Long Range variants, but not for the Performance model. This was the same strategy that was used with the refreshed Model 3, whose performance version launched months after the new Model 3.
We’ve already seen some covered-up refreshed Model Ys at Giga Texas, so it seems almost certain that Tesla is in their final evaluation phases prior to this variant’s launch.
With that said, let’s dive into what we saw at the ‘Ring.
Minor Exterior Updates
The Nürburgring prototype was fully wrapped in a white and black camouflage, but thanks to the crisp photos, we got some detailed looks at the exterior of the vehicle. A new and more distinct spoiler is on the rear hatch, similar to the previous generation’s Performance model. That spoiler is likely carbon fiber and will also likely make its way to the Tesla store in the future as a cosmetic add-on for non-Performance buyers.
That spoiler is super noticeable from the side.
Carscoops
Carscoops also noticed that the vehicle was sitting noticeably closer to the ground than the refreshed Model Y Long Range. We’re expecting Tesla to include an adaptive suspension system, similar to the one that arrived with the Model 3 Performance. These adaptive suspensions can adjust to driver and road input in real-time with adaptive damping.
Interestingly, the front fascia looks relatively unchanged, lacking the dedicated brake cooling ducts that the Model 3 Performance has.
Powertrain
As usual with Tesla, we haven’t heard anything in terms of official specs on the powertrain for this Performance variant, but we can make some good guesses. The Model 3 Performance and Model Y Performance usually sport the same amount of horsepower, so we’re guessing that the refreshed Model Y Performance will also have 510 HP. That gives it about a 3.2-second 0-60 mph (0-100km/h), which is a generous upgrade from the previous generation’s 3.5-second speed at 470 hp.
Wheels & Brakes
On the ‘Ring, the refreshed Model Y Performance is sporting new alloy wheels that are reminiscent yet slightly distinct from the Model S Arachnid wheels. These new Performance wheels also look like they’re a staggered setup, similar to the rest of Tesla’s performance lineup, which means wider rear wheels for better traction and handling. Alongside the red brake calipers, we expect that there are larger, performance-optimized brakes to handle track days.
Pretty Arachnid-looking wheels. We like them!
Carscoops
Performance Launch Date?
Given the fact that this is only the second time we’ve seen the refreshed Model Y Performance, we expect the launch to be a couple of months out. Tesla is still likely working on optimizing the adaptive suspension characteristics and fine-tuning Track Mode 3.0 for the vehicle, and hopefully also designing some unique Performance seats to go with it all.
We’d expect Tesla to launch this variant sometime in late Q3 or early Q4 2025, which is still a few months away. Perhaps the new Model S and Model X will also launch alongside it? That may just make a great Tesla event.
Carscoops, which keeps a close eye on racetracks around the world for new models in testing, has spotted what appears to be the refreshed Model S at Nürburgring in Germany. Tesla is testing out the new Model S, which is likely a Plaid, on the track. Tesla was taking this new Model S for some laps around the track, which serves as an excellent testing ground for high-performance vehicles like the Model S Plaid.
The updated Model S was seen wearing some white and black camouflage over the front and rear, but from the photos that were provided, the changes appear to be relatively minimal and focused on aerodynamics, at least on the exterior.
Not a Juniper-Level Refresh
Tesla’s VP of Engineering, Lars Moravy, mentioned that Tesla was working on updating the Model S and Model X. However, he didn’t quite say just how much of a refresh was on its way. Lars’ comments were very general, and he didn’t mention any details.
Based on what we’ve observed at the ‘Ring,’ this Model S refresh doesn’t appear to be a full-blown Model Y Juniper level refresh, which included a light bar, new headlights, and other substantial changes to the rear and front of the vehicle.
New Front Bumper Camera
At first glance, the front fascia looks remarkably similar to the existing Model S, but there are a few key differences.
First up is the addition of a new lower lip spoiler mounted at the very bottom of the front bumper. These spoilers help to improve aerodynamic efficiency and downforce at high speeds, which is entirely appropriate for a vehicle that thrives on tracks like the Nürburgring.
On the other hand, the distinctive headlights and eyeliner-style running lights appear to remain intact, keeping the overall look of the front relatively similar. Tesla has kept the black space with the Tesla logo at the front of the vehicle. While it’s difficult to tell on the front shots, you can tell it’s still there from the side shots.
Another little item was the return of the front bumper camera. Tesla is shipping both the refreshed Model Y and the Cybertruck with a bumper camera, so it isn’t surprising to see this, but it is one of the best indications that this is a new vehicle being tested.
Can you spot the little nub with the bumper camera?
CarScoops
Wheels & Brakes
The prototype was spotted sporting some new alloy racing wheels that bear a distinctive resemblance to the Photon wheels that ship with the Model 3. If you take off the aero covers from the Photon wheels, they look exceptionally similar. This seems relatively odd, as Tesla’s top-end performance wheels are usually distinctively different from other wheel options.
We also saw the currently-available Arachnid wheels on the same Model S being tested, on the way to and from the track. Tesla likely switched out to these new wheels to test their performance and handling characteristics on the track.
The original Arachnids on this Model S tester
CarScoops
Rear End
From the available images, the rear end of this new test vehicle appears to be largely unchanged. The tail light design, bumper shape, and overall profile look essentially the same as today’s Model S, which means that Tesla’s work has likely focused on the front of the vehicle.
The rear diffuser looks a bit different, but seems essentially the same.
Not a Tesla App
What Else?
With the exterior changes appearing to be relatively minimal, it’s plausible that more significant updates could be found within the cabin. Tesla could be working on interior updates that help bring the new Model S more in line with the new Model 3 and Model Y.
A focus point for Tesla may be the Model S Plaid’s powertrain. The S Plaid used to hold several records, at least until the Lucid Air Sapphire and Rimac Nevera came along to steal the trophies. Tesla could be improving both the front and rear motors, as well as the other portions of the drivetrain needed to grab a podium finish once again, which would be just as exciting as Plaid+ being announced again.
Given the minimalistic changes to the exterior, it seems unlikely that Tesla has made drastic changes to the vehicle as a whole, though. We don’t expect this updated version of the Model S to launch with Steer-by-Wire or any of the other new technologies pioneered by the Cybertruck. Although Tesla says they will be used in future vehicles, even Juniper launched without these Cybertruck upgrades.
Tesla could still surprise everyone, as is their habit with vehicle announcements, but we’re expecting a slightly faster, slightly cooler-looking Model S at this point.
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