Well-known Tesla hacker, @greentheonly, has found something new in Tesla's code that answers many questions. It appears that the company is moving forward with a two-week suspension for drivers who lose full self-driving access. This revelation puts an end to the speculation of FSD suspension times, and it should be a great relief to those who've been stuck in FSD jail in the past.
In a tweet, @greentheonly says that Tesla appears to have finally added the two weeks suspension to FSD Beta 10.69.25.2. He states that the internal wording has been updated to mention two weeks. Previously it was only mentioned in the FSD Beta 10.69.25.1 release notes.
Only a small percentage of customers have started receiving the latest beta, v10.69.25.2. However, the update continues to roll out to additional owners today and that trend is expected to continue.
Confusion on Suspension
The hacker was asked if this change is hard coded to two weeks or if it is an auto-regrade system similar to the safety score. Green responded that the phrasing in the software has been changed from:
"Feature will be restored with an upcoming software release."
To the following phrase, which matches the two weeks mentioned in the release notes:
"Feature will be restored approximately two weeks after suspension."
In another tweet, he explained: …the message is hardcoded to two weeks, so the code is likely same too otherwise the message would be variable as well I would imagine.
The original wording had many believing that with Beta 10.69.25.1, Tesla was transitioning away from global resets and instead resetting them after a specific period, believed to be two weeks. That belief stemmed from the company's previous release notes stating that the FSD Beta feature can "only be removed per this suspension method and will be unavailable for approximately two weeks." However, when the update started rolling out publicly, owners' suspensions remained.
Shorter Suspensions are Productive
To reiterate, because there are many new Tesla owners, FSD becomes disabled if there are too many inattention warnings. So, after being alerted three times (for legacy Model S and Model X cars) or five times (for vehicles with the cabin camera), FSD is disabled. Previously, the length of the suspension has been anyone's guess. Several users have said they were banned from the system for months. Now, the suspension appears to be about 14 days after receiving your last strike.
Hopefully, the shortened suspension is long enough to correct the driver's actions, but it's also short enough that Tesla can continue gathering Autopilot information and reduce frustration. The system has undergone significant improvements, and engineers have said it can only improve with more real-world input.
Tesla's fourth quarter and 2022 earnings call with investors was mostly good news unless you were planning to drive a Cybertruck soon. While company executives eagerly jumped on every question asked by investors, there was a noticeable pause when a point-blank question was asked about Cybertruck's mid-year production date.
Elon Musk responded "um, we do expect production to start, I don't know, maybe sometime this summer. But I always like to try to downplay the start of production because the start of production is always very slow. It increases exponentially, but it's always very slow at first. So I wouldn't put too much thought in start of production."
Volume Production Next Year
If the millions of people with Cybertruck reservations were in attendance, you might have felt the air leave the room. The previous belief was mass production would start by the end of 2023. There may be some stainless-steel beauties on the road by then, but only a few. "It's kind of when does volume production actually happen, and that's next year," said Musk.
Perhaps sensing some disappointed buyers, Lars Moravy, Tesla's Vice President of Vehicle Engineering added, "(I'd) like just to emphasize on that, we've started installation of all the production equipment here in Giga Texas, castings, general assembly, body shops. We built all our beta vehicles, some more coming still in the next month, but as you said, the ramp will really come 2024."
The Cybertruck Will be Elon's Next Car
Cybertruck was originally announced in 2019 at the memorable event that included the unbreakable armor glass smashing. Musk was wearing the smashed glass Cybertruck t-shirt while taking questions from investors. While the wait continues, he is adamant that it will be worth it, "So it's an incredible product. I can't wait to drive it personally. It will be the car that I drive every day… it's just one of those products that only comes along once in a while, and it's really special."
The original release deadline was set for 2021. However, the production date has been delayed due to unforeseen circumstances, like a global pandemic. Nevertheless, it is a positive sign that beta vehicles have been produced. Images of what appears to be a Cybertruck were leaked a few months ago.
Recently, chief designer Franz von Holzhausen did confirm that the Cybertruck was ready for production, but it's a work in progress. Every Tesla beta product gets thoroughly examined and meticulously reviewed before the next step. But at least it's a step in the right direction.
Tesla set new records in production and deliveries while beating analyst expectations.
Tesla published their Q4 2022 and full-year financial results, setting new records in production and deliveries while beating analyst expectations. Tesla’s annual profit rose to $12.6 billion in 2022, from $5.5 billion in 2021. Annual revenue rose to $81.5 billion, from $53.8 billion the year prior. Tesla reported fourth-quarter revenue of $24.32 billion beating analysts' $24.07 billion estimate. The automaker also reported earnings per share of $1.19 beating analysts' $1.12 estimate.
Tesla’s stock rose more than 5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release and surged more than 10% the next day.
Tesla's Q4 2022 revenue set a new record for the company, up 59% from a year earlier. In addition to automotive revenue of $21.3 billion, Tesla recognized $324 million of deferred revenue from the company’s driver assistance systems.
FSD Beta Numbers
Tesla reported that 90 million miles have now been driven with FSD Beta, up from 58 million miles in the previous quarter. The company also confirmed that they have about 400,000 FSD Beta users in North America, a sizeable increase since the last report. With such a steep increase in miles driven and FSD Beta becoming widely available in North America, Tesla is making significant progress with its autonomous driving software.
In late 2022 and into this year, Tesla began cutting prices on its cars globally. Elon spoke about how recent price cuts have fueled a surge in demand for Tesla: “Thus far in January we’ve seen the strongest orders year-to-date than ever in our history. We’re currently seeing orders of almost twice the rate of production.” He added: “These price changes really make a difference for the average consumer.” Tesla acknowledges that average sales prices have to decrease over time because affordability is part of Tesla's mission to grow into a company that sells multiple millions of cars annually.
Price cuts will impact profitability, but margins should remain healthy, Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn affirmed. Tesla has wider operating margins than the industry average, which allows them to make such price cuts.
Elon issued an uncertain forecast for 2023, saying Tesla planned on 1.8 million vehicles for the year without specifying whether that was a target for production or deliveries. If the company were to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, that would result in 37% annual growth.
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