Early this morning Tesla released v10 of their FSD Beta as expected. The beta is version 2021.24.15. This release of the Beta is said to include a completely retrained Neural Net, although the release notes for the update are the same as version 9.2 of the FSD Beta. Elon seems very pleased with this specific version, calling it 'next-level' on Twitter.
Lucky participants were able to download the beta this morning and try it out. So far early impressions are that v10 is a noticeable improvement over the previous version. It is now able to navigate areas it just wasn't able to before. Tesla has been making impressive improvements with each FSD Beta release. Lets not forget this beta comes just shy of four weeks after the previous beta.
In this update, the car is more confident in taking left turns at intersections that don't have traffic signals. It accelerates more briskly and generally drives more like a human driver.
Version 10 was able to navigate the famous Lombard Street in San Francisco for the first time without any human intervention. Check out how it performed below:
FSD on Lombard Street
UI Improvements
Elon mentioned that there would also be some UI improvements in this beta. We're now seeing clearer lane markings. When the car approaches an intersection, the visualization will now zoom out slightly to give you a better view of the entire intersection and surrounding cars.
For Model S and X owners, the visualizations on the instrument cluster now also take up the entire screen. Any additional information you add to the IC, like an analog clock, will now be placed on top of the visualizations.
Future Improvements
Elon said this morning that this beta uses all the new vision processing and neural net improvement only for city streets. Highway driving still relies on the current production Navigate on Autopilot codebase. Elon went on to say that Tesla will merge highway and city driving into a single stack that should be included in version 10.1 of the FSD Beta. Over time we should see big improvements in the way Autopilot navigates highways as well.
Version 10 doesn't drive entirely like a human being yet. There was a time when it didn't take the right-of-way when it should have done so. There was a time when it didn't move far enough to the left to pass a pedestrian adult and child in the road with sufficient distance. And it didn't automatically reroute itself when it came to a place where the road was closed.
So v10 is not the ultimate solution for full self driving, but it's getting there. And maybe it's good enough for Elon to give us the "BUTTON" in a few weeks.
Highway stack is still production version, as it is more polished than FSD for now. Single stack for all should release in 10.1.
This version of the FSD Beta saw an increase in the number of testers. We don't know how many, but there were additional Tesla owners invited to test out this version of the FSD Beta. This must mean that Tesla is feeling more confident and wants to slowly start increasing the numbers of testers.
In the race to deploy autonomous vehicles, there have been two schools of thought. One is led by sensor fusion, which means the more sensors and the more types, the better. The other is Tesla’s school of thought — vision.
So far, even Google’s CEO, Sundar Pichai, has described Tesla as the leader in the autonomy sector.
Google CEO on who is the leader in self-driving space: "I think obviously @Tesla is a leader in the space. It looks to me like Tesla and Waymo are the top two." pic.twitter.com/T0hlSICm8V
A new analysis from Bloomberg (paywall) offers a similar perspective, focusing on the numbers and real-world safety metrics. Tesla’s strategy isn’t just viable - it is far outpacing its competitors.
A Tale of Crash Rates
The most striking numbers from Bloomberg’s analysis are safety-related. According to their comparison, FSD reports approximately 0.15 crashes per million miles driven. In contrast, Waymo reported approximately 1.16 crashes per million miles.
That means that a Tesla using FSD is seven times less likely to be involved in a crash than a Waymo vehicle, even with its bevy of sensors. This is in line with Tesla’s latest vehicle safety report, which notes that a Tesla using FSD is 10 times less likely to be involved in an accident than a driver in any other vehicle.
Crash rates compared
Bloomberg
When it comes down to it, sensor fusion, while it can be fantastic, it simply provides too much data to process and analyze. While LiDAR, radar and cameras all have their unique advantages, cameras end up being the most versatile. Our roads and world were created around vision and audio, so a LiDAR-only vehicle can’t navigate our roadways since it would be unable to see signs or any other object that lacks depth. For LiDAR to be useful, it needs to be coupled with vision.
Vision works well because it applies to all situations, and it’s a system that continues to improve thanks to advancements in image processing and AI. While measurements with vision still lag behind LiDAR, they’ve reached a point where they’d “good enough,” and the millimeter-level accuracy of LiDAR isn’t needed.
When radar and vision disagree, which one do you believe? Vision has much more precision, so better to double down on vision than do sensor fusion.
Besides the difficulty of using sensor fusion, Bloomberg also points out that Tesla’s advantage is in the fundamental cost of the hardware. The Model Y costs just 1/7th of the total cost of a Waymo vehicle.
This enormous cost difference is a direct result of how Tesla and Waymo are approaching autonomy. Waymo’s vehicles are high-end, third-party electric cars, like the now-discontinued Jaguar I-Pace, which are then retrofitted with an expensive, custom-built suite of sensors. This sensor suite includes multiple LIDAR units, radars, and cameras.
Tesla’s ability to scale autonomous driving faster than its rivals gives it an edge in the self-driving race, says Bloomberg Intelligence's Steve Man https://t.co/B1x5Jhx6Lfpic.twitter.com/XYPCblWmXn
Tesla, meanwhile, includes all the hardware for autonomy as standard equipment on each of their vehicles, with a relatively inexpensive suite of cameras and its own in-house designed FSD computer. Using affordable hardware means it’s easy to produce and field more vehicles, resulting in more data.
On top of that, building more vehicles at a lower price creates a larger and larger economic difference as time goes on, as Tesla’s Robotaxis become profitable far quicker than Waymo’s.
3 Billion Miles… and Counting
The biggest advantage that Tesla has over any other entrant into the autonomy ring is simply just data. Tesla’s fleet has gathered over 3 billion miles of driving data globally, whereas Waymo’s fleet is just a minuscule 22 million miles.
Putting that into perspective, for every mile driven by a Waymo vehicle, a Tesla has driven over 135. Tesla’s advantage is also the fact that its data is global. It includes vehicles operating in a range of environments, from deserts to the Arctic, from cities to extremely rural areas, and is capable of achieving generalized autonomy.
Waymo’s data is extremely focused on urban and suburban areas and is effectively unusable for generalized vehicle autonomy. A larger, more capable fleet is the key to providing an effective robotaxi service, after all.
Scaling Manufacturing
Finally, Waymo doesn't produce vehicles. Tesla produces Robotaxis from scratch - every vehicle off the line has the ability to run Unsupervised FSD, and eventually join the Robotaxi fleet. Waymo needs to partner with other companies that have a good platform, and they must adapt their technology to that platform.
Waymo’s fleet is expected to be 2,500 vehicles by the end of 2025, while Bloomberg expects Tesla’s functional fleet to hit 35,000 by the same time. That’s not even counting the millions of AI4-powered vehicles that could also join the fleet by late 2026.
Overall, Tesla is a clear winner in the Robotaxi race - and it isn’t just because of one element. They’re winning through data, cost, and scalability, and the gap will only continue to grow.
For several months, we’ve been hearing rumors that Tesla is developing a new variant of the Model Y, one equipped with six seats rather than the five or seven we’re accustomed to seeing. Many people have been holding out for exactly such a variant, one that’s big enough to hold larger families without being as tight on legroom as the seven-seat variant.
Now, thanks to confirmation from Tesla hacker @greentheonly, we now have the strongest evidence yet that Tesla is making a six-seat variant, likely in a unique configuration, as he found in the latest batch of vehicle firmware.
Green found references to the six-seater Model Y in the 2025.20 update, validating the rumors we’ve heard. Given that the references are showing up in production software, Tesla may now be actively testing the vehicle. The next place to watch will be code in the Tesla app, which should hopefully provide us with some previews of the seat layout.
Captain’s Chairs
So, what would a six-seat Model Y actually look like? Well, the configuration all but guarantees a 2x2x2 seat layout. That configuration would replace the traditional second-row bench seat with two more spacious captain’s chairs, which will have an aisle between them. That’s a big bump in comfort for second-row passengers, who would have seats more similar to the ones up front. Tesla didn’t include armrests on the six-seat Model X, so it’s likely the Model Y won’t have them either.
For the Model X, the seven-seat configuration is a $3,500 bump in price, while the six-seater costs an additional $6,500, so expect the Model Y to have a similar price structure.
We can also expect Tesla to add some convenience features into this package, similar to the power-reclining seats introduced in the new Model Y, which can automatically fold and unfold with the tap of a button. In a six-seat Model Y, the middle seats would likely be able to automatically move forward and backward, while the rear two seats would be the folding ones.
Front seats learned some manners
If rear row needs more space to fold flat, front seats in new Model Y will automatically adjust pic.twitter.com/O8ik9QuPwA
However, most importantly, this 2x2x2 layout creates a center aisle. This provides easier access to the third row, eliminating the need to fold down the center bench seat to get in and out of the vehicle. That’s a big improvement for families who use the third-row regularly.
Confirming Rumors
This firmware update actually confirms rumors we heard back in December 2024. China’s Latepost and Reuters had already indicated that a six-seat variant was in the works back then, but many agreed that the variant would be an exclusive option for the Chinese market. That particular market prefers having spacious second-row seating, and the six-seater just makes sense there, given the offerings of other manufacturers.
Now, with Green’s assessment that a global release is more likely helps to confirm those reports, while also providing some hope for customers in North America and Europe who have been holding out.
Utility vs Comfort
The plot thickens when we look at the fact that Tesla just teased another recent development - the Model Y seven-seat variant. Some customers in North America and Europe received emails teasing the return of the seven-seat Model Y.
But why would Tesla release both? Likely for similar reasons that they have a six-seat and seven-seat Model X. The answer is that some will value the utility of the seven-seat option, while others will value the comfort and premium feeling of the six-seat option.
By offering both, Tesla gives its customers a bit more customization and preference, especially those who often have to look outside the brand for larger family vehicles.
Longer Wheelbase
While the firmware finding confirms the seating configuration, there have also been some rumors from Chinese bloggers about the possibility of a longer wheelbase, known as version E80. If this proves to be true, the six-seater would be more than just a new interior layout; it would be a fundamentally larger vehicle. Recent rumors suggest the vehicle may have a wheelbase that’s 5.9” longer than the regular Model Y, which would significantly increase the legroom available in the third row. While the third row may have ample legroom in this longer wheelbase, it would likely still be limited for smaller individuals due to the available headroom.
The Tesla Model X is Tesla’s only current offering for larger families, but it costs significantly more than the Model Y. A six or seven-seater Model Y could help open up a whole new category for Tesla.
Price
We expect that Tesla will likely price the seven-seat variant for an additional $2,000 USD ($3,000 CAD), and the six-seat variant for an additional $4,000 USD ($5,000 CAD) in the North American market, based on the pricing of the old seven-seat variant and the Model X’s six-seat premium configuration.
Below is a video of the seven-seater Model Y:
What Next?
The addition of the six-seat Model Y to Tesla’s public software that’s being delivered to vehicles today practically confirms that Tesla is looking to release a six-seat version of the Model Y. While the longer wheelbase remains speculative, we could expect Tesla to unveil a six-seat variant in the coming months. Alongside the seven-seat variant, customers shopping for a larger vehicle will have some additional choices soon.
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