Tesla has been steadily rolling out new releases of their FSD Beta on a regular basis.
According to Elon, Tesla plans on expanding the FSD Beta to the public by offering owners a chance to opt-in to the beta and download the latest FSD software.
Yesterday Tesla released version 10.0 of their FSD Beta. Elon feels Tesla may be ready to start releasing the FSD Beta to a wider audience in version 10.1. Tesla is aiming to release version 10.1 in three weeks, around October 1st.
With the release of the 10.0 beta, Tesla expanded the amount of testers, giving some additional Tesla supporters access to the beta. Tesla previously had about 2,000 individuals testing out the beta. Although the number of testers increased, this is still very much a closed beta.
Since April, Elon's plan was to eventually allow all Tesla owners access to try out FSD features themselves.
Elon recently clarified how the ‘Download FSD Beta' button will work. In order to ensure safety, on the drivers' part and Tesla's, Tesla will gradually expand the amount of users that can access the FSD Beta. Which means that not everyone who wants to try it out will be able to right away.
The way this is likely to work is that everyone will have access to the button, but this may just add you to a queue of people that would like to help test it. Much like the Advanced button in the Tesla Software section.
Not everyone that opts in to the beta will be able to download it, at least not immediately. Tesla will slowly roll the beta out to additional owners as their confidence grows and more issues are fixed. The way Tesla will pick which users get access to the beta isn't clear, but we expect it to be similar to the way Tesla currently decides who gets Early Access releases or even how they decide which vehicles are the first to receive updates.
Tesla is a software and AI company, so you can bet that whoever they choose to roll out the beta to won't be random. With the expansion of the beta, Tesla may consider how often you are actively engaged when using Autopilot, how confident is the beta in your area, where does Tesla need additional testing?
Tesla often uploads a significant amount of data for every beta tester, letting Tesla know how the beta is doing. It feeds Tesla additional images and video of situations Tesla wants to better test for. As Karpathy talked about in one of his keynotes this year, Tesla has the ability to ask their fleet for additional data. For example, if Tesla needs additional testing for partially occluded traffic lights, they can set that parameter and receive thousands of images from the Tesla fleet.
We don't know how quickly Tesla will release the FSD Beta. Tesla likely doesn't know the answer to this either. As Tesla releases the beta to more individuals they'll be looking closely at disengagements and issues encountered. The better the beta does, the quicker we'll see it rolling out to more individuals.
Expect the roll out of the betas to be slow and safe. Tesla doesn't need a PR nightmare that could likely hamper future FSD development. Elon has said that Tesla's goal is to ensure maximum safety.
Tesla has invested billions of dollars over the years toward vehicle autonomy. The mission continues as Elon Musk and Tesla now prepare to unveil their ride-hailing product, Robotaxi this August. Or, as Musk called it on Tuesday, Tesla CyberCab.
Early Days
Five years ago, during Tesla’s Autonomy Investor Day in April 2019, Elon Musk said he felt “very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla in the following year [2020]”. At the time, Musk added a bolder claim, predicting that Tesla wouldn’t even make cars with steering wheels or pedals by 2022. While timeliness may not be Musk’s strong suit, he has a track record for getting things done that others were unwilling to try or thought were impossible. Musk later admitted he can be overly optimistic and said “sometimes I am not on time, but I get it done.”
Now, 5 years later, we have the robotaxi unveiling scheduled for August 8th. After the release of FSD v12, it’s clear that we’re much closer to autonomy than we were in 2019, although FSD v12 is still a far cry from full autonomy.
While Tesla still has the robotaxi unveiling scheduled for August, Tesla announced yesterday that it’d be prioritizing a simpler “next-gen” model that could be released by early 2025.
Latest Updates
On the conference call, Musk added that Tesla now has over 300 million miles driven with FSD v12 since it was launched just last month. He added that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.
Tesla said it has been investing in the hardware and software ecosystems necessary to achieve vehicle autonomy and a ride-hailing service. The company is confident that it can establish a scalable and profitable autonomous driving business by employing a vision-only architecture.
think of it [Tesla] as combination of Airbnb and Uber meaning that there will be some number of cars that Tesla owns itself and operates
Tesla = Uber + AirBnb
Later on, Elon Musk unveiled that the new service will operate and result in a mix between Uber and Airbnb where the Tesla driver decides if and when he wants his Tesla to be used and by whom. Tesla stated:
“We believe the Tesla software experience is best-in-class across all our products, and plan to seamlessly layer ride-hailing into the Tesla App.”
Tesla’s CEO clarified that the owners will be able to add or remove their car from the fleet “whenever they want” adding that it will be up to them to decide if they want to only let the car be used “by friends and family or only by five-star users or by anyone at any time”. The flexible program will, just like Airbnb, allow the owners to take the car out of the market when they want.
The upcoming ride-hailing service will enable users to easily request a Tesla vehicle, control the car's temperature, monitor its real-time location, and adjust the audio system. The only question is when.
“We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025”. This was one of the key sentences that were part of Tesla’s deck shared on Tuesday directly before its financial results.
Since Reuters’ report a few weeks ago saying Tesla had “scrapped” the highly expected cheaper model— which Elon quickly denied on X —retail and institutional shareholders started asking for more details on Tesla’s product roadmap for 2024 and beyond.
In the earnings conference call, Elon Musk reiterated that Tesla expects to launch the next model in “early 2025, if not late this year”.
“We've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of previously mentioned start of production in the second half of 2025. So, we expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year. “
Over concerns of temporary production halts to update the factories for these new models, Musk said that Tesla will produce new models with certain aspects from their next-generation platform and current models. This will reduce the number of changes needed on production lines and allow Tesla not only to ramp up production faster but also to get the vehicles to market quicker.
Model Y Redesign
Tesla appears to hit that their next-gen vehicle will be less “next-gen” than they were initially aiming for, but to get a new vehicle out the door by late 2024, the process would already have to be in motion. Tesla may likely be referring to the redesigned Model Y, which is expected to reuse many parts from the new Model 3. Earlier this year, Tesla said that the redesigned Model Y will not be released this year, so it makes sense that they’re looking to speed up that production.
Tesla CEO concluded by saying that these measures will allow Tesla to reach a capacity of over 3 million units. Tesla produced 1.84 million vehicles in 2023. However, this year they’re ramping up Cybertruck production and introduced the new Model 3 into new markets.
And we think this should allow us to get to over 3 million vehicles of capacity when realized to the full extent.
Tesla reported on Tuesday its earnings results followed by a conference call where it teased its upcoming Robotaxi and its next-generation platform saying its “purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary ‘unboxed’ manufacturing strategy”.
Earlier in the day, Tesla announced the new Performance variant of its sedan Model 3 with deliveries in the United States starting already next month. The new version starts at $45,490 (after applying the $7,500 Federal EV tax credit) and goes from 0 to 60mph in 2.9 seconds.
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Tesla Android Project enables you to run Android apps in your Tesla. The platform is Open Source and you can deploy it on your own Raspberry Pi 4. Consider supporting the initiative by donating or purchasing the Compute Module 4 Bundle that delivers the best experience. Get $20 off by using the code: NotATeslaApp
The official Tesla app only notifies you if your car is broken into. By installing Sentry Pro on your phone, you will be notified for all Sentry Mode events. Stay connected and avoid potential surprises by receiving notifications. Stop constantly checking the cameras to ensure safety. Check only when necessary, save battery and get peace of mind. Get a 7 day free trial here!
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