Tesla’s Approach to Autonomy: 7x Safer and 7x Cheaper than Waymo

Bloomberg

In the race to deploy autonomous vehicles, there have been two schools of thought. One is led by sensor fusion, which means the more sensors and the more types, the better. The other is Tesla’s school of thought — vision.

So far, even Google’s CEO, Sundar Pichai, has described Tesla as the leader in the autonomy sector.

Google CEO on who is the leader in self-driving space: "I think obviously @Tesla is a leader in the space. It looks to me like Tesla and Waymo are the top two." pic.twitter.com/T0hlSICm8V

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) December 15, 2024

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A new analysis from Bloomberg (paywall) offers a similar perspective, focusing on the numbers and real-world safety metrics. Tesla’s strategy isn’t just viable - it is far outpacing its competitors.

A Tale of Crash Rates

The most striking numbers from Bloomberg’s analysis are safety-related. According to their comparison, FSD reports approximately 0.15 crashes per million miles driven. In contrast, Waymo reported approximately 1.16 crashes per million miles.

That means that a Tesla using FSD is seven times less likely to be involved in a crash than a Waymo vehicle, even with its bevy of sensors. This is in line with Tesla’s latest vehicle safety report, which notes that a Tesla using FSD is 10 times less likely to be involved in an accident than a driver in any other vehicle.

Crash rates compared

Bloomberg

When it comes down to it, sensor fusion, while it can be fantastic, it simply provides too much data to process and analyze. While LiDAR, radar and cameras all have their unique advantages, cameras end up being the most versatile. Our roads and world were created around vision and audio, so a LiDAR-only vehicle can’t navigate our roadways since it would be unable to see signs or any other object that lacks depth. For LiDAR to be useful, it needs to be coupled with vision.

Vision works well because it applies to all situations, and it’s a system that continues to improve thanks to advancements in image processing and AI. While measurements with vision still lag behind LiDAR, they’ve reached a point where they’d “good enough,” and the millimeter-level accuracy of LiDAR isn’t needed.

When radar and vision disagree, which one do you believe? Vision has much more precision, so better to double down on vision than do sensor fusion.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 10, 2021

Vehicle Cost

Besides the difficulty of using sensor fusion, Bloomberg also points out that Tesla’s advantage is in the fundamental cost of the hardware. The Model Y costs just 1/7th of the total cost of a Waymo vehicle.

This enormous cost difference is a direct result of how Tesla and Waymo are approaching autonomy. Waymo’s vehicles are high-end, third-party electric cars, like the now-discontinued Jaguar I-Pace, which are then retrofitted with an expensive, custom-built suite of sensors. This sensor suite includes multiple LIDAR units, radars, and cameras.

Tesla’s ability to scale autonomous driving faster than its rivals gives it an edge in the self-driving race, says Bloomberg Intelligence's Steve Man https://t.co/B1x5Jhx6Lf pic.twitter.com/XYPCblWmXn

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) June 16, 2025

Tesla, meanwhile, includes all the hardware for autonomy as standard equipment on each of their vehicles, with a relatively inexpensive suite of cameras and its own in-house designed FSD computer. Using affordable hardware means it’s easy to produce and field more vehicles, resulting in more data.

On top of that, building more vehicles at a lower price creates a larger and larger economic difference as time goes on, as Tesla’s Robotaxis become profitable far quicker than Waymo’s.

3 Billion Miles… and Counting

The biggest advantage that Tesla has over any other entrant into the autonomy ring is simply just data. Tesla’s fleet has gathered over 3 billion miles of driving data globally, whereas Waymo’s fleet is just a minuscule 22 million miles. 

Putting that into perspective, for every mile driven by a Waymo vehicle, a Tesla has driven over 135. Tesla’s advantage is also the fact that its data is global. It includes vehicles operating in a range of environments, from deserts to the Arctic, from cities to extremely rural areas, and is capable of achieving generalized autonomy.

Waymo’s data is extremely focused on urban and suburban areas and is effectively unusable for generalized vehicle autonomy. A larger, more capable fleet is the key to providing an effective robotaxi service, after all.

Scaling Manufacturing

Finally, Waymo doesn't produce vehicles. Tesla produces Robotaxis from scratch - every vehicle off the line has the ability to run Unsupervised FSD, and eventually join the Robotaxi fleet. Waymo needs to partner with other companies that have a good platform, and they must adapt their technology to that platform.

Waymo’s fleet is expected to be 2,500 vehicles by the end of 2025, while Bloomberg expects Tesla’s functional fleet to hit 35,000 by the same time. That’s not even counting the millions of AI4-powered vehicles that could also join the fleet by late 2026.

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Overall, Tesla is a clear winner in the Robotaxi race - and it isn’t just because of one element. They’re winning through data, cost, and scalability, and the gap will only continue to grow.

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Tesla Shares Q2 2025 Numbers: Production and Deliveries Up Over Last Quarter

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Tesla has released its Q2 2025 production and delivery numbers, revealing an improvement in production and deliveries over Q1, but still down from a year ago.

Tesla produced 410,244 vehicles in Q2, nearly equal to their production a year ago, which was 410,831 vehicles. Production for this quarter was significantly up compared to Q1 2025, which only saw 362,615 vehicles produced. While production numbers matched those of a year ago, actual deliveries were down.

Q2 2025 saw Tesla deliver 384,122 vehicles, which was down approximately 59,000 units compared to the same period last year, but up by approximately 48,000 vehicles, or about 14% compared to Q1.

Breakdown by Model

The Model 3/Y segment continues to dominate Tesla’s production profile, accounting for 396,835 units produced and 373,728 delivered in Q2 2025. Deliveries for the “Other Models” category—which includes the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X—were down compared to the previous quarter, with just 10,394 vehicles delivered, a 20% decline. Compared to a year ago, the drop for these vehicles is even more drastic, with sales being down 52%. Tesla refreshed its Model S and Model X last month with new features; however, the update was much smaller than expected and likely didn’t help much in increasing sales for these vehicles.

Tesla doesn’t break down Cybertruck sales separately, but those deliveries are expected to be down as well.

Tesla noted that 2% of total deliveries this quarter were accounted for under operating lease agreements, consistent with the same quarter last year.

Context and Market Response

While the numbers exceeded some bearish expectations, the year-over-year delivery drop is Tesla’s second straight quarterly decline. Analysts attribute declining sales to increasing EV competition and reputation issues.

Still, investors found relief in the improved quarter when compared to Q1. The stock rebounded about 4% yesterday on the news.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on Tesla’s Robotaxi network, the Cybercab, and the more affordable model, which is slated to be released later this year.

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Tesla's 2024 Impact Report Shares Updated Timelines for Cybercab, Affordable Model and Semi

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Tesla has finally released their 2024 Impact Report, and it's filled with impressive new data on the company’s environmental and safety progress. However, the biggest news is the clear and concrete roadmap it provides for the next generation of Tesla products.

For the first time, the report provides specific timelines for Tesla to begin volume production of the purpose-built Cybercab and the ramp-up of the Semi factory. This year’s report shifts from documenting past achievements to defining Tesla’s next phase, with a focus on autonomy and industrial transport.

Upcoming Vehicles

The most significant new items in the report are timelines for Tesla’s anticipated future vehicles.

First up is the Cybercab, who Tesla says will begin volume production in 2026. Tesla will be using their revolutionary unboxed production process to build it, which will help reduce costs and complexity. Cybercab will be heavily reliant on the approval of unified autonomy regulations that will enable vehicles to be deployed that do not have driver controls.

Next, Tesla is ramping up production of the Semi, following the completion of limited production runs used for testing. This development is closely tied to the ongoing construction of the new Semi Factory, which is nearing completion. Tesla expects this to be one of its largest markets going forward and one of the most impactful. Industrial trucks doing the last 200 miles of delivery account for 16.4% of US vehicle emissions, despite making up only 1.1% of vehicles on the road.

In terms of the Affordable Model, Tesla has mentioned that they intend to launch more affordable products in 2025 and address a key segment of the market. They did not elaborate on this further and seem to have missed the previously provided self-imposed deadline for the first half of 2025. 

At this point, we’re unsure whether Tesla will actually launch a distinct and more affordable model or whether it will introduce cut-down versions of the Model Y, as rumored.

Safety

The report supports Tesla’s future plans with some impressive new data points that demonstrate the impact their technology is having.

First, Autopilot (and FSD) has achieved a safety record nearly 10 times higher than the US national average in terms of miles per incident. The data shows one accident for every 6.77 million miles driven with Autopilot (or FSD) engaged, compared to the national average of one accident per 0.70 million miles.

The report also highlighted the Cybertruck’s recent 5-Star overall safety rating from the NHTSA, marking it one of the safest vehicles on the market, especially for a truck. The best part is that Cybertruck holds the lowest overall probability of injury and the lowest rollover risk of any pickup truck ever tested by the agency. Skeptics have always complained about lacking crumple zones, but the results prove otherwise, with Tesla building crumple zones as part of the gigacast.

Sustainability

In terms of sustainability, Tesla’s growing fleet helped to increase the amount of reduced and avoided emissions by 60% year over year, to 32 million metric tons of CO2e. While that’s a small number when you compare it to a full country, it is still a significant impact, especially in cities where pollutants have already decreased due to the ownership of EVs.

Tesla also mentioned that 99% of their recalls reported in 2024 were resolved using OTA updates, saving owners a trip to the Service Center or a trip by the Tesla Mobile Rangers, all in the name of sustainability and reduced costs.

Impactful Report

Tesla’s 2024 Impact Report is actually one of the most forward-looking publications to date. It puts a clear roadmap of Tesla’s future goals, while also tying them into the sustainability and safety goals achieved last year.

We can’t wait till 2025’s report - because it’ll be even better with this year’s deployment of Robotaxi. You can read all 200+ pages of the impact report here.

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