George Hotz Offers a Different Perspective on FSD and Autonomous Vehicle Progress

February 14, 2024

By Kevin Armstrong

Autonomy is a decade away

Not a Tesla App

In a recent series of posts on X, George Hotz, a figure renowned for his contributions to hacking and autonomous driving technology, provided a sobering perspective on the state of autonomous vehicles. Contrary to beliefs held firmly by Tesla and, of course, Elon Musk, Hotz suggests that full autonomy remains a distant goal, potentially over a decade away. This stance is a departure from the optimistic timelines often presented by major players in the AV industry.

The Path to Full Autonomy: A Decade of Development

Hotz acknowledges that while significant milestones will mark the journey to full autonomy, the ultimate goal remains elusive. The distinction between a vehicle's ability to predict and to act autonomously in a loop is vast. Hotz emphasizes that a fully autonomous car must exhibit "agentic behavior" far beyond anything currently demonstrated by existing technologies.

We'll get many useful intermediates on the path to full autonomy in the next 10 years, but the difference between predicting and acting in loop is huge.

A fully autonomous car is an agent so far beyond any agentic behavior I have seen to date. Sorry about bruising your hype.
— George Hotz 🌑 (@realGeorgeHotz) February 13, 2024

Despite the long road ahead, Hotz is optimistic about the advancements that will emerge in the interim. Technologies allowing "eyes off" driving on highways could become available within the next decade. These limited-scope capabilities will pave the way for more sophisticated systems, gradually bridging the gap towards full autonomy.

Tesla's Profitability vs. Waymo's Vision

Hotz's commentary began as a response to contrasting views regarding Tesla and Waymo's progress toward full autonomy. While some believe Tesla is on the brink of achieving fully autonomous driving, others see Waymo as the front-runner. However, Hotz points out a critical distinction: Tesla's profitability as a company compared to Waymo's ongoing financial challenges. This underscores the complexity of achieving autonomy from a technical standpoint and as a viable business model.

Understanding Human Behavior: The Ultimate Challenge

Hotz concurs that autonomous vehicles must understand general human and world behavior to operate without geofencing. This level of comprehension is critical, as it encompasses learning from both on-road experiences and off-road simulations. Developing a "general agent" capable of navigating the myriad scenarios drivers encounter daily is fundamental to achieving true autonomy.

Exactly. Limited scope will be sub 10, like eyes off driving on highway. But a fully autonomous car needs to be a general agent.

It's a long road, but I think it's sub 20 years for human level agentic AI. I've devoted my life to this problem.
— George Hotz 🌑 (@realGeorgeHotz) February 13, 2024

Hotz reveals a deep commitment to solving the autonomous driving puzzle in his discourse. Estimating that human-level agentic AI could be a reality in less than two decades, he shares his dedication to contributing towards this ambitious goal. His perspective not only tempers the prevailing "hype" around autonomy but also highlights the magnitude of the challenge ahead.

Tesla Expected to Offer FSD Transfers in Europe

July 15, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

It has been a long wait for FSD for European customers, many of whom paid for the feature years ago on now legacy hardware. While the FSD transfer program has come and gone multiple times, there’s something to be said about having it available in North America, where it can be used, and in Europe or other countries, where it still just remains the same as Enhanced Autopilot (differences between Autopilot, EAP, and FSD).

FSD Transfer is a nice goodwill gesture from Tesla that in theory doesn’t cost them anything. Instead, it keeps customers, especially those who have been waiting for years, loyal and happy. It also incentivizes them to upgrade to a newer Tesla with HW4, where FSD will hopefully be achieved.

In a reply to a post on X, Elon agreed with the suggestion that offering FSD transfers in Europe would be a fair solution for those who have already purchased FSD but can’t use its capabilities.

Sounds fair
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 13, 2025

A Fair Solution

FSD Transfer directly addresses a growing concern for many long-term European Tesla owners. Thousands of customers purchased the full package, often many years ago, with the expectation that FSD would eventually be capable and approved for use. However, the reality is that FSD, even as an advanced driver assistance system (ADAS), continues to be pushed back in Europe.

As the regulatory process continues at a snail's pace, many of these early supporters are now reaching or have already passed the point where they’re ready to upgrade to a new Tesla.

Without the transfer program, it's a difficult choice: either throw away your original investment in FSD and pay for the package a second time (FSD price history), or subscribe to it in the future.

Offering FSD transfers is a good way for Tesla to meet them halfway. It's a difficult situation, and one that’s being hindered by processes beyond the control of both the customer and Tesla. However, a transfer helps both parties. Tesla sells another vehicle, and the customer gets to keep FSD.

When Will it Be Available?

Based on how FSD transfers have worked in the past following Elon’s announcements, this feature is likely to become available for a limited time period in the coming days or weeks. If it happens, we should expect an announcement from Tesla Europe on X and emails being sent out to Tesla customers.

Once the program is in place, all you need to do is complete your vehicle purchase and then inform your Tesla sales advisor that you’d like to transfer FSD. You don’t even have to sell or trade in your old Tesla; FSD will simply be removed from it as a feature.

Hopefully, Tesla enables FSD Transfers for everyone, regardless of region. It should be an ongoing offer until at least FSD is approved in the given country or region.

Tesla Increases Robotaxi Fare Fee, Up from $4.20

July 15, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

The introductory price for Tesla’s Robotaxi Network has finally been updated. In a post on X, Elon Musk confirmed that the new fare would be rolling out to complement the new Robotaxi geofence expansion.

This change marks the first adjustment to Tesla’s fares since the initial $4.20 launch price 23 days ago. While the price increase may seem significant in terms of percentages, when compared to other options in the ride-hailing area, it is still drastically cheaper.

But the price is now a princely $6.90, as foretold in the prophecy 😂
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 14, 2025

Context Matters

Robotaxi currently operates on a simple, flat-rate model. The new $6.90 fare gets you a ride to anywhere within the recently expanded geofence.

So far, this is the opposite approach compared to other services, such as Waymo or traditional ride-sharing options like Uber and Lyft. All these services use dynamic pricing based on distance, time of day, and demand. A comparable trip on any one of these services could cost anywhere from $30 to $65, and potentially even higher during peak hours.

That doesn’t even include the tip fees for human drivers either - another win for Robotaxi (can you tip a Robotaxi?).

Even with the adjustment, the flat $6.90 fare remains less than half the price of a typical competing ride, making Robotaxi the most affordable point-to-point transportation option in Austin, aside from mass transit, for now.

A “Maturing” Service

The price change, moving from one meme-worthy number to another, is a sign that Robotaxi is finally graduating from its initial pilot phase. Following the first major expansion of the service area, this adjustment is a logical next step towards finding a more sustainable flat price.

While the new fare is a 65% increase over the old fare, the key takeaway is that it is still far cheaper than other options, and still just as meme-worthy. Tesla is aiming to have its early access riders complete as many rides as possible during these early months, and this pricing is still very reflective of that.