Tesla Talks FSD: FSD V12 Rollout, Hardware 5, Miles Driven, Beta label and FSD Licensing

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Yesterday, Tesla held its 2023 Q4 earnings where they discussed the company's Q4 earnings and answered investor questions in a Q&A session.

Tesla discussed their next-gen vehicle, 4680 batteries, the Cybertruck and of course full self-driving.

FSD Beta v12 Roll Out

In November, we confirmed that Tesla rolled out FSD v12 to employees, and just last week it went out to some limited customers.

However, during Tesla's Q&A session, Tesla announced that FSD v12 would roll out to all customers in North America in "the weeks to come."

Musk, who answered the question, goes on to say that it will go out to the 400,000 cars who currently have access to FSD Beta in the U.S. and Canada. This number remains largely unchanged since Tesla first expanded FSD to everyone in North America who has bought or subscribed to the FSD.

FSD V12 Is Still In “Beta”

In Tesla's shareholder deck, Tesla confirms that v12 is end-to-end AI and calls the feature "FSD Beta software," confirming that FSD will remain in beta with the initial release of v12.

The shareholder deck states: 

"In Q4, we released our latest FSD Beta software (V12) to select Tesla employees, and more recently, to customers. V12 utilizes end-to-end training, enhancing the driving experience. We also introduced the 2nd generation of the Optimus robot, which uses Tesla-designed actuators and sensors and improved AI capabilities. Both FSD Beta and Optimus are trained with similar technology pillars: real-world data, neural net training and cutting-edge hardware and software."

End of Separate Branches for FSD Beta?

Tesla has historically released new FSD Beta updates to a smaller, select group of testers, with the majority of vehicle owners remaining on the "production" code branch and keeping an older, but more stable version of FSD Beta.

With the holiday update, we saw the merger of FSD Beta updates and production releases, with everyone receiving a single holiday update (2023.44.30) that included FSD Beta 11.4.9. With the release of FSD v12, we expected the latest FSD Beta builds to once again diverge from the latest public releases.

However, Musk's comment on FSD v12's upcoming release to all customers makes it sound like this may not be the case. If Tesla is releasing FSD Beta v12 to all owners in North America in the coming weeks, it could be a part of Tesla update 2024.2, or a subsequent release.

Licensing FSD

Tesla previously talked about licensing FSD to other manufacturers. However, it looks like there hasn't been much progress on that front.

Michael questioned if there had been any progress on licensing FSD to another company.

Musk answers the question by saying there have been tentative conversations but ultimately revealed that there have been no deals yet.

FSD Hardware 5

Musk talked a little about Tesla's FSD hardware, saying Tesla continues to optimize software to get the most out of FSD hardware 3. However, more interestingly he revealed that Tesla is about to complete the design of Tesla hardware 5.

He didn't go into any other details on whether hardware 5 would simply have more compute power or additional hardware, but he said that Tesla is making gigantic improvements from hardware 3 to 4, to 5. Tesla released hardware 4 in March 2023, with additional compute power and higher-resolution cameras.

Musk also talked about a potentially interesting opportunity for Tesla to run "generalized AI tasks" on their vehicles when they're not in use.

Update on FSD Miles Driven

Tesla owners have driven about 725 million miles with FSD Beta

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While Tesla gave several updates on FSD during their Q&A session, they didn't touch on the amount of FSD miles driven during the actual call, but instead provided an update on their shareholder deck like they have in the past. Last quarter the chart revealed that there had been about 525 million miles driven on FSD Beta. 

In this quarter's updated chart, Tesla shows that there have now been about 750 million miles driven since March 2021. That's an increase of about 225 million miles in three months.

Based on Tesla's 400,000 FSD Beta customers, some quick math reveals that each customer uses FSD Beta about 187 miles per month, or just higher than 6 miles per day.

The miles-driven chart trajectory has remained about the same since May 2023, which signifies that there hasn't been a major uptick in FSD Beta sales or its daily usage.

This will change when Tesla rolls FSD Beta out to additional markets, which may happen with China first. It'll also be interesting to see the impact of customer usage when Tesla rolls out FSD Beta v12.

Although Tesla didn't touch on the expansion of FSD Beta during the call, there were more details than usual this time around. Tesla provided updates on their next-gen vehicle, Optimus and the Cybertruck, among others.

Goldman Sachs evaluates Tesla's FSD as being worth $1 - $3 billion in revenue but reveals that this could balloon up to $10 to $75 billion in the next 6 years.

A lot of this may depend on Tesla's FSD success with end-to-end AI.

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Tesla Improves Wrap Services: Cuts Prices Drastically, Adds New Colors and Expands Availability

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After canceling the in-house wrap program for the Cybertruck last month, Tesla has reintroduced the program with a lot of changes. Let’s take a look at the original program, then we’ll dive into what’s changed.

Tesla began the wrap program for the Model 3 and Model Y in the fall of 2023. With the arrival of the Cybertruck, Tesla launched Matte Black and Satin White options for the Cybertruck and later added 11 more colors.

These are high-quality PPF (Paint Protection Film) wraps, which protect the paint in addition to changing the color of the vehicle. PPF is thicker, lasts longer, and is far superior to traditional vinyl wraps, but unfortunately, the service is only available if your vehicle is brand new.

When the program shuttered last month, many people were disappointed about the closing as it allowed owners to bundle the cost of the wrap service into the vehicle’s financing.

New Wrap Prices

First things first - the price of the wraps has dropped considerably, and Tesla does not appear to be using a different material - it is still PPF, not vinyl. These new prices are a lot more comparable to third-party offerings that normally use vinyl wraps.

Tesla initially offered 11 wrap colors, but that selection has now been reduced to eight per vehicle. Interestingly, the color options vary by model—Model 3 and Model Y owners have their own distinct palette. The Cybertruck also boasts its own unique set of colors, though unfortunately, the popular Satin White option is absent from its catalog.

Of course, the ever-popular Matte Black is still available, along with a fairly unique set of other vivid colors.

New Locations

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When the wrap program launched, it was limited to just three locations in California and one location in Texas. That meant that unless you were taking delivery at West Covina, Oceanside, Costa Mesa, or Santa Clara, you’d be unable to get a first-party wrap done by Tesla.

Now, under the new program, Tesla is offering wraps out of all the original locations and adding Seattle, Washington. What initially seemed like Tesla scaling back its wrap service has turned out to be to them making it more affordable and efficient.

New Purchases Only

For now, the wrap offers are still constrained to new vehicle purchases—you won’t be able to have Tesla wrap a vehicle that’s already been delivered. Paint damage and scuffs can impact the installation of PPF and require additional time to smooth out the vehicle surface.

Either way, with cheaper wrap options, Tesla is now directly competing against third-party wrap shops when it comes to wrapping vehicles in PPF. While it’s still a bit more expensive than you’d find elsewhere, it also comes with a level of care and precision from technicians intimately familiar with your vehicle.

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Tesla Increases Price of Model S; Starts Offering Free Lifetime Supercharging

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For the first time in quite a while, Tesla has increased the price of one of its vehicle offerings. The Model S Long Range and the Model S Plaid have both received a hefty price increase. However, not all is bad - as Tesla also added a new benefit for buyers.

Price Increase

The price increase for the Model S is $5,000 - currently only in the United States. This price increase will likely impact other markets, including Canada, in the coming days.

The Model S Long Range now starts at $79,990, while the Model S Plaid now starts at $94,990. The Model S and Model X now have the same starting price. Interestingly, that’s also the same pricing point for the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast Trimotor non-Foundation Series. 

The vehicle configuration does not appear to have changed, so the new pricing is simply an increase rather than the addition or removal of features. Tesla previously cut the price of the Model S and Model X by 15% in 2023, so this could simply be an adjustment to ensure that the vehicle pricing stays in line with inflation and other factors.

Free Lifetime Supercharging

For those on the fence about ordering a Model S, Tesla has brought back Free Lifetime Supercharging when you order a new Model S on or after December 13, 2024. As always, Free Lifetime Supercharging is restricted to the buyer’s Tesla account and to that specific vehicle. It cannot be transferred to another vehicle or another owner after ownership transfer. It’s worth noting, that it also doesn’t exclude the owner from receiving Supercharger idle fees or congestion fees. There is currently no end date for this promotion.

There are currently no changes to the Model X, neither a price increase nor the addition of Lifetime Superchargering. However, when Tesla makes changes to one of their premium vehicles, it usually affects the other one as well. So be on the lookout for potential changes to the Model X offering in the coming days.

We’ve seen Tesla value Lifetime Supercharging at $5,000, so this falls in line with the price increase we’re seeing. It’s possible that Tesla will begin to bring back Lifetime Supercharging as a perk for buying into their more premium Model S and Model X cars, or this could be another temporary promotion to get buyers who are on the fence to go ahead and make their purchase while this promotion lasts.

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