Tesla Talks FSD: FSD V12 Rollout, Hardware 5, Miles Driven, Beta label and FSD Licensing

By Not a Tesla App Staff
Not a Tesla App

Yesterday, Tesla held its 2023 Q4 earnings where they discussed the company's Q4 earnings and answered investor questions in a Q&A session.

Tesla discussed their next-gen vehicle, 4680 batteries, the Cybertruck and of course full self-driving.

FSD Beta v12 Roll Out

In November, we confirmed that Tesla rolled out FSD v12 to employees, and just last week it went out to some limited customers.

However, during Tesla's Q&A session, Tesla announced that FSD v12 would roll out to all customers in North America in "the weeks to come."

Musk, who answered the question, goes on to say that it will go out to the 400,000 cars who currently have access to FSD Beta in the U.S. and Canada. This number remains largely unchanged since Tesla first expanded FSD to everyone in North America who has bought or subscribed to the FSD.

FSD V12 Is Still In “Beta”

In Tesla's shareholder deck, Tesla confirms that v12 is end-to-end AI and calls the feature "FSD Beta software," confirming that FSD will remain in beta with the initial release of v12.

The shareholder deck states: 

"In Q4, we released our latest FSD Beta software (V12) to select Tesla employees, and more recently, to customers. V12 utilizes end-to-end training, enhancing the driving experience. We also introduced the 2nd generation of the Optimus robot, which uses Tesla-designed actuators and sensors and improved AI capabilities. Both FSD Beta and Optimus are trained with similar technology pillars: real-world data, neural net training and cutting-edge hardware and software."

End of Separate Branches for FSD Beta?

Tesla has historically released new FSD Beta updates to a smaller, select group of testers, with the majority of vehicle owners remaining on the "production" code branch and keeping an older, but more stable version of FSD Beta.

With the holiday update, we saw the merger of FSD Beta updates and production releases, with everyone receiving a single holiday update (2023.44.30) that included FSD Beta 11.4.9. With the release of FSD v12, we expected the latest FSD Beta builds to once again diverge from the latest public releases.

However, Musk's comment on FSD v12's upcoming release to all customers makes it sound like this may not be the case. If Tesla is releasing FSD Beta v12 to all owners in North America in the coming weeks, it could be a part of Tesla update 2024.2, or a subsequent release.

Licensing FSD

Tesla previously talked about licensing FSD to other manufacturers. However, it looks like there hasn't been much progress on that front.

Michael questioned if there had been any progress on licensing FSD to another company.

Musk answers the question by saying there have been tentative conversations but ultimately revealed that there have been no deals yet.

FSD Hardware 5

Musk talked a little about Tesla's FSD hardware, saying Tesla continues to optimize software to get the most out of FSD hardware 3. However, more interestingly he revealed that Tesla is about to complete the design of Tesla hardware 5.

He didn't go into any other details on whether hardware 5 would simply have more compute power or additional hardware, but he said that Tesla is making gigantic improvements from hardware 3 to 4, to 5. Tesla released hardware 4 in March 2023, with additional compute power and higher-resolution cameras.

Musk also talked about a potentially interesting opportunity for Tesla to run "generalized AI tasks" on their vehicles when they're not in use.

Update on FSD Miles Driven

Tesla owners have driven about 725 million miles with FSD Beta
Tesla owners have driven about 725 million miles with FSD Beta
Not a Tesla App

While Tesla gave several updates on FSD during their Q&A session, they didn't touch on the amount of FSD miles driven during the actual call, but instead provided an update on their shareholder deck like they have in the past. Last quarter the chart revealed that there had been about 525 million miles driven on FSD Beta. 

In this quarter's updated chart, Tesla shows that there have now been about 750 million miles driven since March 2021. That's an increase of about 225 million miles in three months.

Based on Tesla's 400,000 FSD Beta customers, some quick math reveals that each customer uses FSD Beta about 187 miles per month, or just higher than 6 miles per day.

The miles-driven chart trajectory has remained about the same since May 2023, which signifies that there hasn't been a major uptick in FSD Beta sales or its daily usage.

This will change when Tesla rolls FSD Beta out to additional markets, which may happen with China first. It'll also be interesting to see the impact of customer usage when Tesla rolls out FSD Beta v12.

Although Tesla didn't touch on the expansion of FSD Beta during the call, there were more details than usual this time around. Tesla provided updates on their next-gen vehicle, Optimus and the Cybertruck, among others.

Goldman Sachs evaluates Tesla's FSD as being worth $1 - $3 billion in revenue but reveals that this could balloon up to $10 to $75 billion in the next 6 years.

A lot of this may depend on Tesla's FSD success with end-to-end AI.

Tesla Likely to Launch Robotaxi Service in Next 5 Years, May Account for 90% of Future Profit

By Karan Singh
ARK Invest

Tesla is on the verge of its Robotaxi announcement event on 8/8, and major investors like Ark Invest are examining and refreshing their bull case scenarios.

Robotaxi as a Focus

Ark Invest sees Robotaxi as a focus of Tesla’s ongoing business and sees Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing revenue to net nearly $1 trillion in 2029. In comparison, they estimate Tesla’s vehicle sales to account for $0.4 trillion in revenue. With this bull case, Ark Invest also sees Tesla’s share price soaring to $3,100 by 2029. Ark Invest’s bear case sees the share price moving to $2,000 and robotaxi netting $0.63 billion in revenue.

Ark Invest gives Tesla a 58% chance of launching its robotaxi service in 2025, and a 38% chance in 2026. It’s clear that Tesla’s future lies in operating a fleet of autonomous vehicles and the question is just when it will happen. Given FSD’s massive improvements between FSD V11 and FSD V12, there is a possibility of Tesla meeting these estimates, although a lot depends on how fast improvements will continue to come. While FSD V12 is impressive, it’s still a long way from a true autonomous vehicle.

Rate of Improvement

Miles driven by Tesla FSD versus autonomous competitors
Miles driven by Tesla FSD versus autonomous competitors
ARK Invest

Ark’s case is focused on the fact that FSD’s rapid improvement will continue, and a lot of that may be determined with the next few releases, including FSD 12.4.1, v12.5, and v12.6. When comparing Tesla to autonomous vehicles, Tesla has a drastic lead in miles driven, in fact, it’s so large that you can barely even see Tesla’s competitors. Tesla is at 1.3 billion miles driven with FSD, while the closest competitors are just reaching 15 million autonomous miles driven. While there’s a drastic difference in capabilities between Tesla’s FSD and autonomous vehicles such as Google’s Waymo, Tesla has the ability to gather data 86 times quicker.

Training data is key to building autonomous vehicles, and Tesla is currently the king of vehicle-related data.

Services Company

We previously wrote about whether Tesla’s future will be as a car company or a services company – and major investors such as Ark Invest and Morgan Stanley see Tesla’s AI services as a major driver of business in the future, and the focus of future revenue and profits.

Robotaxi, as both a service and as a physical product, has the opportunity to shake up markets in a unique way, providing quick, clean, and safe transportation between local destinations in urban areas, which could quickly outcompete traditional services like taxis, and tech competitors like Uber or Lyft. The market for robotaxi is untapped and massive, but Tesla isn’t the only one chasing the goal.

Apple and Tesla – WWDC 2024 Recap

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

With the announcement of Apple’s focus on AI in iOS 18 at WWDC Monday, there has been a flurry of interesting news items.

From Elon Musk mentioning that Apple devices may be banned at his companies due to the integration of AI, to Apple allowing developers to add functions to the Control Center, and Musk confirming once again that Tesla has no intentions to produce a phone, it was a busy day.

Control Center

Also at WWDC, Apple showed off an updated Control Center – the swipe-down control menu on iOS. As of iOS 18, third-party developers will now be able to create buttons to add to Control Center.

This is a pretty neat feature and could make it even easier to manage your Tesla from Apple devices. You could soon be able to control the climate or begin charging your Tesla without even opening the app.

You can already do some of these things using Siri Shortcuts, but this could be the granular integration needed to control specific items with even more detail, rather than just simple routines.

Tesla typically launches new features on its iOS app first, and Android devices a few days or weeks later. An excellent example of this is Ultra Wideband support, which came to Apple devices first.

Banning Apple Devices

At WWDC, Apple showed off new AI integration in its OS, which allows users to leverage OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Elon Musk mentioned that this is a massive security concern on a post on X, and he said he may ban the presence of Apple’s devices at his companies.

Tesla App Lead Alex Guichet asked on X if this was any different than Gemini integration on Android – which Google has already announced and begun to roll out to customers in select markets. If you’re in Canada or the United States, you can replace your current Google Assistant with Gemini, which provides a similar level of system integration to Apple.

Since Musk’s initial reaction to Apple’s integration of AI and partnership with OpenAI, Musk’s concerns appear to have eased. Numerous users clarified that Apple is building its own AI, and Apple will not hand over information to OpenAI unless users explicitly confirm they want to do so.

Musk Denies Tesla Phone

Elon Musk has confirmed that even with his potential ban on Apple devices, he is not interested in building a Tesla phone. A Tesla phone has previously been mentioned, and Elon Musk had previously shown interest in the idea, but has also shot it down numerous times over the years.

With this final confirmation, it’s pretty clear that we won’t be expecting a Tesla phone anytime in the future. SpaceX has been working on integrating Starlink cell-to-satellite messaging, calling, and data to existing phones, so we could see further integration in a different way one day.

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