Tesla's latest earnings call updated listeners on the Cybertruck, which started deliveries last month. Elon Musk stated, “It's like finally, the future looks like the future… That's our best product ever.” The CEO’s statement sums up the excitement surrounding a vehicle that has captivated the imagination of generations.
Vaibhav Taneja, the company’s CFO, added, "Anywhere you go, people look at you, they give you thumbs up."
Cybertruck Demand and Production
The demand for the Cybertruck has been “off the hook,” according to Musk. Tesla revealed an impressive conversion rate from reservations to orders.
Karn Budhiraj, VP of Supply Chain of Tesla, emphasized, "The reservation to order conversion rates so far has been very, very encouraging. If the trend continues as it is very likely to be, we will soon sell out all the builds in 2024." This statement highlights the strong market demand for the Cybertruck, and Tesla's ability to meet consumer expectations will have to accelerate. “The numbers keep growing. So we're now all hands on deck, focused on ramping so we can fulfill all the demands in a reduced wait time.”
Cybertruck base
Not a Tesla App
Tesla's approach to meeting this demand is equally noteworthy. "It's important to emphasize that this is very much a production-constrained situation, not a demand-constrained situation," Musk stated, reaffirming that Cybertruck production will hit 250,000 per year. He also mentioned that Tesla could raise the price to manage demand, “obviously, we could dramatically raise the price, but that doesn't feel right to us to sort of gouge people for early delivery,” suggesting a commitment to affordability.
4680 Battery Cells: Expansion and Growth
A crucial element in the Cybertruck's production ramp-up is the 4680 battery cells. Tesla has been working tirelessly to increase the production of these cells. Karn Budhiraj reported, "To date, 4680 production is ahead of the ramp with actually weeks of finished cell inventory. And the goal is to keep it that way, not only for Cyber, but for our future vehicle programs.” This progress is critical to Tesla's ability to meet the Cybertruck demand without sacrificing quality or delaying delivery.
Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are set for significant expansion. The company is currently running one production line and one assembly line and using two assembly lines in addition to yield and rate improvement trials for the 4680. Budhiraj stated, “We have a fourth in commissioning, and four more will be installed starting in Q3 this year. So, definitely, this is a big year for ramping 4680.
This expansion will cater to Cybertruck's demand and bolster Tesla's overall production capacity for future vehicle programs. The executives emphasized that some companies only work on batteries, but it’s just one piece of Tesla. Musk said, “It's not just that it's a 46-millimeter diameter by 80-millimeter cell. That's just the dimensions. There's a tremendous amount of new technology in the cell itself.” And you thought Tesla was a car company.
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There has been extensive reporting on what the long-anticipated affordable EV option would become, and we’ve seen numerous news stories mentioning that it was delayed or even arriving on time. The executive team revealed the near-term and long-term plans for Tesla’s upcoming vehicles, and there’s definitely good news to share here.
Updated Timeline
The most important piece of news is that despite all the talk of delays from supposed inside sources, Tesla has confirmed that the plan for its more affordable model remains on schedule for production to begin in the first half of 2025. Tesla’s executive team narrowed that timeline down further - and said that they expect production to kick off as soon as June and that the new model will be in the market shortly thereafter.
While the production timeline itself is on track, Tesla did note that the subsequent ramping process will likely be slower than initially hoped, citing global tariff and financial impacts as challenges to overcome to prepare its production lines.
Hybrid Production Approach
Tesla has once again confirmed that this will not be their next-generation vehicle, built using new production methods. Instead, they outlined a relatively more pragmatic approach for this new model.
Tesla will utilize aspects of both the next-generation platform as well as some parts of its current platforms (namely the Model 3 and Model Y). This means that Tesla will produce this new vehicle on the same manufacturing lines as the Model 3 and Model Y.
This strategy allows Tesla to bring the vehicle to the market more quickly, while also managing capital expenditures more efficiently by using existing infrastructure. However, Tesla’s executive team also noted that this approach, while faster, will result in fewer cost reductions than what might have been achieved with an entirely new platform and dedicated manufacturing process.
Vehicle Design
Using these existing production lines means that Tesla’s new vehicle will likely share some considerable similarities with either the existing Model 3 or Model Y. Rather than being a radically different and smaller vehicle, this new model will resemble the overall form factor and shape of Tesla’s current core offerings, while being optimized for a lower cost.
This doesn’t mean that Tesla is forgetting the overall goal here. Their ultimate goal is to reduce the initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments for customers while maintaining a standard of excellence and safety.
Not Unboxed
Both at this Earnings Call and previous ones, Tesla has indicated that this new vehicle will not be using the innovative unboxed assembly method, at least for the time being. That relatively unique method will be developed and implemented specifically for the purpose-built Cybercab and for future vehicles on the next-generation platform.
We’re just a few days away from May, so it won’t be long before we see more about this upcoming vehicle. Stay tuned.
In a follow-up move to the current US administration’s goals to introduce a federal framework for autonomous vehicles, the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) is loosening autonomy restrictions following an announcement from Secretary Sean Duffy on X. This new initiative helps streamline complex regulatory processes and foster home-grown innovation.
From the Wright Brothers to the first astronauts on the moon, our nation has always been at the forefront of transportation technology.
That’s why today we're unveiling a new Automated Vehicle Framework from @USDOT’s Innovation Agenda ⬇️ ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/W3kbMUwQSn
As part of the broader upcoming USDOT Innovation Agenda, the newly unveiled AV Framework is designed to promote American innovation and strengthen domestic engineering while maintaining existing safety standards. The framework centers around three key principles:
Prioritize Safety
Unleash Innovation
Enable Commercial Deployment
To kickstart this AV framework, USDOT announced two initial steps focused on streamlining processes and expanding opportunities.
Crash Reporting Requirements
Under the first principle to Prioritize Safety, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) will maintain its Standing General Order requiring crash reporting on Advanced and Automated Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and ADS).
However, the reporting process will be streamlined following feedback from AV innovators, likely including Tesla. The goal here is to focus on collecting critical safety information while removing unnecessary or duplicative items from the reporting process, thereby reducing the burden without compromising safety.
Cutting Red Tape
Directly tied to the second principle of Unleash Innovation, the framework also seeks to slash red tape. The first step here is the expansion of the Automated Vehicle Exemption Program, or AVEP. This program allows manufacturers to petition for temporary exemptions from certain federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) for testing or deployment purposes.
Previously, the standard excluded domestically produced vehicles. Now, domestically produced AVs will not need to meet FMVSS, which will broaden the scope for manufacturers to test more innovative and unique designs and technologies.
Single National Standard for AVs
Finally, tied to the third principle of Enable Commerical Development, USDOT intends to move the United States closer to a single national standard for autonomous vehicles. This aims to prevent a confusing and inefficient patchwork of state-level or city-level laws and regulations, which can create hurdles for companies attempting to innovate, deploy, and scale their technology.
A unified standard across the United States also means that Canada and Mexico will likely be able to follow, as they share homologization standards across North America, including for vehicle crash safety and some autonomy regulations.
What This Means for Tesla
These framework changes will likely have a substantial impact on Tesla. The move towards a national standard is potentially the most impactful change, as Tesla identified regulatory hurdles as one of the most significant challenges it will face with the deployment of both Unsupervised FSD and its Robotaxi network.
The reduction of FMVSS requirements and streamlined reporting will likely play a role in the future as well. The FMVSS requirements are probably already being worked on, if not already met, by the Cybercab and other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup.
Meanwhile, the streamlined reporting will be helpful once Tesla officially launches its Robotaxi network in June.
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