In a recent series of posts on X, George Hotz, a figure renowned for his contributions to hacking and autonomous driving technology, provided a sobering perspective on the state of autonomous vehicles. Contrary to beliefs held firmly by Tesla and, of course, Elon Musk, Hotz suggests that full autonomy remains a distant goal, potentially over a decade away. This stance is a departure from the optimistic timelines often presented by major players in the AV industry.
The Path to Full Autonomy: A Decade of Development
Hotz acknowledges that while significant milestones will mark the journey to full autonomy, the ultimate goal remains elusive. The distinction between a vehicle's ability to predict and to act autonomously in a loop is vast. Hotz emphasizes that a fully autonomous car must exhibit "agentic behavior" far beyond anything currently demonstrated by existing technologies.
We'll get many useful intermediates on the path to full autonomy in the next 10 years, but the difference between predicting and acting in loop is huge.
A fully autonomous car is an agent so far beyond any agentic behavior I have seen to date. Sorry about bruising your hype.
Despite the long road ahead, Hotz is optimistic about the advancements that will emerge in the interim. Technologies allowing "eyes off" driving on highways could become available within the next decade. These limited-scope capabilities will pave the way for more sophisticated systems, gradually bridging the gap towards full autonomy.
Tesla's Profitability vs. Waymo's Vision
Hotz's commentary began as a response to contrasting views regarding Tesla and Waymo's progress toward full autonomy. While some believe Tesla is on the brink of achieving fully autonomous driving, others see Waymo as the front-runner. However, Hotz points out a critical distinction: Tesla's profitability as a company compared to Waymo's ongoing financial challenges. This underscores the complexity of achieving autonomy from a technical standpoint and as a viable business model.
Understanding Human Behavior: The Ultimate Challenge
Hotz concurs that autonomous vehicles must understand general human and world behavior to operate without geofencing. This level of comprehension is critical, as it encompasses learning from both on-road experiences and off-road simulations. Developing a "general agent" capable of navigating the myriad scenarios drivers encounter daily is fundamental to achieving true autonomy.
Exactly. Limited scope will be sub 10, like eyes off driving on highway. But a fully autonomous car needs to be a general agent.
It's a long road, but I think it's sub 20 years for human level agentic AI. I've devoted my life to this problem.
Hotz reveals a deep commitment to solving the autonomous driving puzzle in his discourse. Estimating that human-level agentic AI could be a reality in less than two decades, he shares his dedication to contributing towards this ambitious goal. His perspective not only tempers the prevailing "hype" around autonomy but also highlights the magnitude of the challenge ahead.
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In Tesla software update 2024.32 and onwards, Tesla has made a big—and unexpected—change to how its vehicles handle power sockets. This change impacts every vehicle except the Cybertruck, where you can already adjust how power sockets are handled on a case-by-case basis.
Power Socket Change
This change to the power sockets means that in 2024.32, Tesla vehicles will have their 12v sockets and USB ports turned off while in Sentry Mode. Previously, while the car was awake or Sentry Mode was active, the 12v sockets in the rear of the vehicle and any of the USB ports would all remain powered.
Now, owners will no longer be able to operate devices that rely on these ports once the vehicle falls asleep. This change renders some accessories almost useless, such as vehicle fridges. Owners previously relied on Sentry Mode coming on when their vehicle was parked, which kept the fridge in the vehicle’s sub-trunk powered. This change will also prevent owners from using Sentry Mode to keep USB ports powered to charge laptops and other devices.
Until further changes are made, owners will have to use Camp Mode to keep 12v sockets and USB ports powered. However, Camp Mode leaves the vehicle unlocked, making it insecure and unsuitable for things like sub-trunk fridges.
Cybertruck Power Interface
Tesla may be planning to integrate the Outlets & Accessories menu from the Cybertruck into the rest of its vehicles. The outlets menu in the Cybertruck allows you to keep the cabin (and bed) outlets in the vehicle active, even when the vehicle isn’t in use. These outlets remain powered for up to 12 hours after the Cybertruck is exited.
The Power Menu in the Cybertruck
Not a Tesla App
Sentry Mode Improvements
Drew Baglino, Tesla’s now former SVP of powertrains and energy, said back in February of this year that Tesla was looking at reducing the amount of power that Sentry Mode used. He stated that Sentry Mode power consumption needs to be improved and that the team was working on an update to reduce power by about 40%. According to Baglino, the improvements were expected to come in the second quarter of this year, but it’s not clear if this change in update 2024.32 is part of those changes that will lower Sentry Mode’s power consumption.
Even if these are planned changes, we hope Tesla makes them optional, and lets owners choose when to keep outlets powered and when to conserve energy.
Tesla has issued an OTA recall for the Cybertruck – unsurprisingly, one that has already been fixed for customer vehicles. We’ll expand on the recall a little later, but more importantly, the recall filing revealed that Tesla has now built and sold 27,185 Foundation-Series Cybertrucks for customers.
OTA Recall
The OTA recall – which was issued in update 2024.32.5.2 and above, covered an issue that could delay the rearview camera being displayed on the dashboard.
This would occur if the Cybertruck was powered on, and then quickly shifted to reverse. The rearview camera would not come up on screen within the prescribed 2-second timeframe.
According to the NHTSA filing, Tesla has already fixed this via the OTA update, and the rearview camera will now display within that 2-second timeframe as required going forward. This was another easy OTA fix for Tesla.
Not a Tesla App
27k Cybertrucks
The filing also revealed that Tesla has produced and delivered approximately 27 thousand Foundation-Series Cybertrucks through September 14th. Tesla has been producing the Cybertruck for approximately 11 months now, with the 12-month anniversary coming up on November 13th.
Elon Musk previously mentioned that Tesla intends to produce approximately 375,000 trucks per year to compete with the ICE pickup market. Today, Tesla produces 1.7 million Model 3 and Model Y vehicles per year, and about 80,000 Model S and Model X vehicles a year.
Overall, that 27 thousand over a year is only the start of production, and as Tesla expands and improves its production lines, we can expect that number to continue growing at a rapid pace. With the Foundation Series ending and Tesla opening up invites for reservation holders to configure their non-FS Cybertruck, that number is only expected to increase. The non-FS Cybertruck is priced at $79,990, $20k less than the Foundation Series. The Cybertruck will also become eligible for the Canadian iZEV Heavy EV Rebate.
This puts the Cybertruck in an excellent spot in the future—and it has already outsold its EV competitors in the same market. We’re looking forward to seeing how fast Tesla meets the upcoming demand for non-Foundation Series Cybertrucks.
