In a recent series of posts on X, George Hotz, a figure renowned for his contributions to hacking and autonomous driving technology, provided a sobering perspective on the state of autonomous vehicles. Contrary to beliefs held firmly by Tesla and, of course, Elon Musk, Hotz suggests that full autonomy remains a distant goal, potentially over a decade away. This stance is a departure from the optimistic timelines often presented by major players in the AV industry.
The Path to Full Autonomy: A Decade of Development
Hotz acknowledges that while significant milestones will mark the journey to full autonomy, the ultimate goal remains elusive. The distinction between a vehicle's ability to predict and to act autonomously in a loop is vast. Hotz emphasizes that a fully autonomous car must exhibit "agentic behavior" far beyond anything currently demonstrated by existing technologies.
We'll get many useful intermediates on the path to full autonomy in the next 10 years, but the difference between predicting and acting in loop is huge.
A fully autonomous car is an agent so far beyond any agentic behavior I have seen to date. Sorry about bruising your hype.
Despite the long road ahead, Hotz is optimistic about the advancements that will emerge in the interim. Technologies allowing "eyes off" driving on highways could become available within the next decade. These limited-scope capabilities will pave the way for more sophisticated systems, gradually bridging the gap towards full autonomy.
Tesla's Profitability vs. Waymo's Vision
Hotz's commentary began as a response to contrasting views regarding Tesla and Waymo's progress toward full autonomy. While some believe Tesla is on the brink of achieving fully autonomous driving, others see Waymo as the front-runner. However, Hotz points out a critical distinction: Tesla's profitability as a company compared to Waymo's ongoing financial challenges. This underscores the complexity of achieving autonomy from a technical standpoint and as a viable business model.
Understanding Human Behavior: The Ultimate Challenge
Hotz concurs that autonomous vehicles must understand general human and world behavior to operate without geofencing. This level of comprehension is critical, as it encompasses learning from both on-road experiences and off-road simulations. Developing a "general agent" capable of navigating the myriad scenarios drivers encounter daily is fundamental to achieving true autonomy.
Exactly. Limited scope will be sub 10, like eyes off driving on highway. But a fully autonomous car needs to be a general agent.
It's a long road, but I think it's sub 20 years for human level agentic AI. I've devoted my life to this problem.
Hotz reveals a deep commitment to solving the autonomous driving puzzle in his discourse. Estimating that human-level agentic AI could be a reality in less than two decades, he shares his dedication to contributing towards this ambitious goal. His perspective not only tempers the prevailing "hype" around autonomy but also highlights the magnitude of the challenge ahead.
After canceling the in-house wrap program for the Cybertruck last month, Tesla has reintroduced the program with a lot of changes. Let’s take a look at the original program, then we’ll dive into what’s changed.
Tesla began the wrap program for the Model 3 and Model Y in the fall of 2023. With the arrival of the Cybertruck, Tesla launched Matte Black and Satin White options for the Cybertruck and later added 11 more colors.
Tesla initially offered high-quality PPF (Paint Protection Film) wraps, which protect the paint in addition to changing the color of the vehicle. PPF is thicker than traditional vinyl wraps, but the material costs more and is more time-consuming to apply.
Tesla’s updated program switches away from PPF wraps and now offers traditional vinyl wraps at a cheaper price. This makes Tesla’s wrap service more comparable to third-party installers.
Correction: We initially reported that the new wrap program offered PPF rather than vinyl and that the program was only available for new deliveries.
New Wrap Prices
First things first - the price of the wraps has dropped considerably, mostly due to the change away from PPF. While these prices are still a little more expensive than what you could find at a third-party location, you have the advantage of getting it directly from Tesla.
Vehicle
Original Cost
New Cost
Cybertruck
$8,000
$4,500
Model 3 / Model Y
$6,500
$4,000
Model S / Model X
Not available
Not available
Tesla initially offered 11 wrap colors, but that selection has now been reduced to eight per vehicle. Interestingly, the color options vary by model—Model 3 and Model Y owners have their own distinct palette. The Cybertruck also boasts its own unique set of colors, though unfortunately, the popular Satin White option is absent from its catalog.
Of course, the ever-popular Matte Black is still available, along with a fairly unique set of other vivid colors.
New Locations
Not a Tesla App
When the wrap program launched, it was limited to just three locations in California and one location in Texas. That meant that unless you were taking delivery at West Covina, Oceanside, Costa Mesa, or Santa Clara, you’d be unable to get a first-party wrap done by Tesla.
Under the new program, Tesla is offering wraps out of all the original locations and adding Seattle, Washington. What initially seemed like Tesla scaling back its wrap service has turned out to be them making it more affordable and efficient. While the switch to vinyl may disappoint some owners, in reality, a lot of owners probably didn’t know the difference between PPF and vinyl, making Tesla’s service seem disproportionally more expensive.
No Longer New Purchases Only
While the original wrap program was constrained to new vehicle purchases—you can now have Tesla wrap a vehicle that’s already been delivered. Paint damage and scuffs can impact the installation of wraps and require additional time to smooth out the vehicle surface, and most third-party installers charge additional fees to prepare the surface.
Tesla doesn’t appear to be charging any additional surface prep fees at this time and is able to install on any Model 3, Model Y, or Cybertruck that’s been delivered after 2023.
Either way, with cheaper wrap options, Tesla is now directly competing against third-party wrap shops. While it’s still a bit more expensive than you’d find elsewhere, it also comes with a level of care and precision from technicians intimately familiar with your vehicle.
For the first time in quite a while, Tesla has increased the price of one of its vehicle offerings. The Model S Long Range and the Model S Plaid have both received a hefty price increase. However, not all is bad - as Tesla also added a new benefit for buyers.
Price Increase
The price increase for the Model S is $5,000 - currently only in the United States. This price increase will likely impact other markets, including Canada, in the coming days.
The Model S Long Range now starts at $79,990, while the Model S Plaid now starts at $94,990. The Model S and Model X now have the same starting price. Interestingly, that’s also the same pricing point for the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast Trimotor non-Foundation Series.
The vehicle configuration does not appear to have changed, so the new pricing is simply an increase rather than the addition or removal of features. Tesla previously cut the price of the Model S and Model X by 15% in 2023, so this could simply be an adjustment to ensure that the vehicle pricing stays in line with inflation and other factors.
Free Lifetime Supercharging
For those on the fence about ordering a Model S, Tesla has brought back Free Lifetime Supercharging when you order a new Model S on or after December 13, 2024. As always, Free Lifetime Supercharging is restricted to the buyer’s Tesla account and to that specific vehicle. It cannot be transferred to another vehicle or another owner after ownership transfer. It’s worth noting, that it also doesn’t exclude the owner from receiving Supercharger idle fees or congestion fees. There is currently no end date for this promotion.
There are currently no changes to the Model X, neither a price increase nor the addition of Lifetime Superchargering. However, when Tesla makes changes to one of their premium vehicles, it usually affects the other one as well. So be on the lookout for potential changes to the Model X offering in the coming days.
We’ve seen Tesla value Lifetime Supercharging at $5,000, so this falls in line with the price increase we’re seeing. It’s possible that Tesla will begin to bring back Lifetime Supercharging as a perk for buying into their more premium Model S and Model X cars, or this could be another temporary promotion to get buyers who are on the fence to go ahead and make their purchase while this promotion lasts.
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