Tesla Surpasses Volkswagen, Subaru and BMW in U.S. Market Share

January 11, 2024

By Kevin Armstrong

Tesla's market share in the US has climbed up to 4.2%

ICannot_Enough / X

Tesla not only continued to dominate the EV segment but also made significant inroads into the overall automotive market in the United States, surpassing established players like Volkswagen. According to Cox Automotive and Kelley Blue Book, Tesla's market share in the US automotive sector climbed to 4.2% in 2023, up from 3.8% in 2022. This increase was bolstered by an impressive 25.4% jump in sales, with Tesla selling approximately 654,888 vehicles in the US.

While the numbers are impressive, they don’t show how Tesla has pulled this feat off. No car company worldwide is under more mainstream media scrutiny than Telsa. The company does little advertising, and despite committing to try marketing its product more traditionally, Tesla still strives on word of mouth. Its CEO, Elon Musk, is a lightning rod for controversy. Musk is under a continuous attack that has caused some shareholders to be concerned in the past. Despite all of that, Tesla is on the rise.

Comparison with Traditional Automakers

Data from Cox Automotive and Kelley Blue Book reveals a remarkable upswing in Tesla's market share in the US. Climbing from 3.8% in 2022 to 4.2% in 2023, Tesla's growth trajectory reflects a robust 25.4% increase in sales, translating to about 654,888 vehicles sold in the US.

Indeed! @KelleyBlueBook https://t.co/5lfcQASGRa
— Cox Automotive (@CoxAutomotive) January 8, 2024

While Tesla's market share is still behind giants such as GM, Ford, and Toyota, its growth trajectory is notable. In 2023, Tesla's market share exceeded that of Volkswagen (4.1%), Subaru (4.1%), and BMW (2.5%). This achievement is significant, considering Tesla exclusively sells EVs, unlike Volkswagen and others that offer mostly internal combustion engines. However, Tesla's rise in sales came with a reduction in profitability, as the average transaction price for its cars dropped from around $60,000 to just over $50,000 by the year's end.

The Changing EV Landscape

The EV sector is poised for a significant transformation, with over 70 new EV models expected to debut in the next two years. This influx of new models will intensify competition, challenging Tesla's current market dominance. However, Tesla is not resting on its laurels, with the introduction of the Cybertruck and updates to popular models like the Model 3 (now available in North America) and the Model Y anticipated to stimulate further growth.

Tesla's innovative approach and strong brand recognition position it well to navigate the increasingly competitive EV market. The company's ability to adapt to market demands and its commitment to technological advancements are key factors that will likely sustain its growth trajectory.

Market Dynamics and Tesla's Strategy

The automotive market in the US is expected to experience an uptick in sales, with new vehicle sales projected to reach 15.7 million in 2024. Tesla's strategy seems well-aligned with these market dynamics, as evidenced by its expanding product line, like the “Model 2” and strategic pricing adjustments.

Tesla has the largest growth over the last eight years

ICannot_Enough / X

Tesla's remarkable performance in 2023 signifies a major shift in the automotive industry, highlighting the growing appeal of EVs and Tesla's capability to leverage this trend. Despite facing challenges from a rapidly evolving market and increased competition, Tesla's innovative strategies and strong market presence have established it as a formidable player in the automotive sector. The company's journey from a niche EV manufacturer to a key competitor against established automotive giants like Volkswagen is proof of its resilience and adaptability.

Tesla’s Optimus Robot Learns to Walk Without Vision [VIDEO]

December 13, 2024

By Karan Singh

Optimus Falls - but catches itself!

Not a Tesla App

Tesla recently showed off a demo of Optimus, its humanoid robot, walking around in moderately challenging terrain—not on a flat surface but on dirt and slopes. These things can be difficult for a humanoid robot, especially during the training cycle.

Daily walks help clear your mind pic.twitter.com/dUsW58trS6
— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) December 9, 2024

A Look Behind the Curtain

Most interestingly, Milan Kovac, VP of Engineering for Optimus, clarified what it takes to get Optimus to this stage. Let’s break down what he said.

Optimus is Blind

Optimus is getting seriously good at walking now - it can keep its balance over uneven ground - even while walking blind. Tesla is currently using just the sensors, all powered by a neural net running on the embedded computer.

Essentially, Tesla is building Optimus from the ground up, relying on as much additional data as possible while it trains vision. This is similar to how they train FSD on vehicles, using LiDAR rigs to validate the vision system’s accuracy. While Optimus doesn’t have LiDAR, it relies on all those other sensors on board, many of which will likely become simplified as vision takes over as the primary sensor.

Today, Optimus is walking blind, but it’s able to react almost instantly to changes in the terrain underneath it, even if it falls or slips.

What’s Next?

Next up, Tesla AI will be adding vision to Optimus - helping complete the neural net. Remember, Optimus runs on the same overall AI stack as FSD - in fact, Optimus uses an FSD computer and an offshoot of the FSD stack for vision-based tasks.

Milan mentions they’re planning on adding vision to help the robot plan ahead and improve its walking gait. While the zombie shuffle is iconic and a little bit amusing, getting humanoid robots to walk like humans is actually difficult.

There’s plenty more, too - including better responsiveness to velocity and direction commands and learning to fall and stand back up. Falling while protecting yourself to minimize damage is something natural to humans - but not exactly natural to something like a robot. Training it to do so is essential in keeping the robot, the environment around it, and the people it is interacting with safe.

We’re excited to see what’s coming with Optimus next because it is already getting started in some fashion in Tesla’s factories.

Is Tesla Close to Licensing FSD? GM Quits Cruise, BMW Praises Tesla

December 13, 2024

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

In a relatively surprising move, GM announced that it is realigning its autonomy strategy and prioritizing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) over fully autonomous vehicles.

GM is effectively closing Cruise (autonomous) and focusing on its Super Cruise (ADAS) feature. The engineering teams at Cruise will join the GM teams working on Super Cruise, effectively shuttering the fully autonomous vehicle business.

End of Cruise

GM cites that “an increasingly competitive robotaxi market” and “considerable time and resources” are required for scaling the business to a profitable level. Essentially - they’re unable to keep up with competitors at current funding and research levels, putting them further and further behind.

Cruise has been offering driverless rides in several cities, using HD mapping of cities alongside vehicles equipped with a dazzling array of over 40 sensors. That means that each cruise vehicle is essentially a massive investment and does not turn a profit while collecting data to work towards Autonomy.

Cruise has definitely been on the back burner for a while, and a quick glance at their website - since it's still up for now - shows the last time they officially released any sort of major news packet was back in 2019.

Competition is Killer

Their current direct competitor - Waymo, is funded by Google, which maintains a direct interest in ensuring they have a play in the AI and autonomy space.

Interestingly, this news comes just a month after Tesla’s We, Robot event, where they showed off the Cybercab and the Robotaxi network, as well as plans to begin deployment of the network and Unsupervised FSD sometime in 2025. Tesla is already in talks with some cities in California and Texas to launch Robotaxi in 2025.

GM Admits Tesla Has the Right Strategy

As part of the business call following the announcement, GM admitted that Tesla’s end-to-end and Vision-based approach towards autonomy is the right strategy. While they say Cruise started down that path, they’re putting aside their goals towards fully autonomous vehicles for now and focusing on introducing that tech in Super Cruise instead.

NEWS: GM just admitted that @Tesla’s end-to-end approach to autonomy is the right strategy.

“That’s where the industry is pivoting. Cruise had already started making headway down that path. We are moving to a foundation model and end-to-end approach going forward.” pic.twitter.com/ACs5SFKUc3
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) December 10, 2024

With GM now focusing on Super Cruise, they’ll put aside autonomy and instead focus solely on ADAS features to relieve driver stress and improve safety. While those are positive goals that will benefit all road users, full autonomy is really the key to removing the massive impact that vehicle accidents have on society today.

In addition, Super Cruise is extremely limited, cannot brake for traffic controls, and doesn’t work in adverse conditions - even rain. It can only function when lane markings are clear, there are no construction zones, and there is a functional web connection.

The final key to the picture is that the vehicle has to be on an HD-mapped and compatible highway - essentially locking Super Cruise to wherever GM has time to spend mapping, rather than being functional anywhere in a general sense, like FSD or Autopilot.

Others Impressed - Licensing FSD

Interestingly, some other manufacturers have also weighed into the demise of Cruise. BMW, in a now-deleted post, said that a demo of Tesla’s FSD is “very impressive.” There’s a distinct chance that BMW and other manufacturers are looking to see what Tesla does next.

BMW chimes in on a now-deleted post. The Internet is forever, BMW!

Not a Tesla App

It seems that FSD has caught their eyes after We, Robot - and that the demonstrations of FSD V13.2 online seem to be the pivot point. At the 2024 Shareholder Meeting earlier in the year, Elon shared the fact that several manufacturers had reached out, looking to understand what was required to license FSD from Tesla.

There is a good chance 2025 will be the year we’ll see announcements of the adoption of FSD by legacy manufacturers - similar to how we saw the surprise announcements of the adoption of the NACS charging standard.