Musk says Tesla's next-gen vehicle will be much more utilitarian
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With all the attention on Cybertruck, Tesla is quietly working on the real game changer. Somewhere in Tesla's research and development is the Model 2, the next-gen, more affordable Tesla. It is the car that Tesla predicts will sell more than all of its other vehicles - combined!
The company has long been known for its futuristic and sleek designs, with the upcoming Model 2 touted as the most affordable and utilitarian offering yet. Yes, utilitarian were the words used by Elon Musk as he reiterated the primary focus for the Model 2 would be simplicity in design, manufacturing efficiency, and affordability.
But how might this vision translate into the actual car design? We have a few ideas using some hints and lessons from the past. For simplicity's sake, we will refer to the next-gen car as the Model 2 in this article.
Teardrop Shape: Aerodynamic Mastery
Aptera's vehicle design next efficiency to another level
Aptera
Arguably the most aerodynamic shape for cars, the teardrop design minimizes drag, which is crucial for electric vehicles where range is paramount. The Model 2 could integrate this shape, focusing on the perfect harmony of form and function.
A vehicle is yet to be produced, but it has shown this design and how Tesla could use it. Aptera knows that in vehicle efficiency, drag coefficients are king. It is a crucial metric denoting aerodynamic resistance: while a Toyota Corolla registers at 0.29 and the Tesla Model 3 impresses with 0.23, the Aptera records 0.13. To put that in perspective, the bottlenose dolphin puts up a 0.1.
The McLaren Speedtail
Bloomberg
When McLaren set out to conceive their swiftest road-going model, it didn't merely optimize the engine; it sculpted the very form of the car itself. The McLaren Speedtail's streamlined silhouette, exemplified by its elongated tail, the omission of conventional side mirrors, and aerodynamic front wheel covers, is a testament to this design philosophy.
Three Wheels: Sneak Peak Lines up with Aptera
Tesla working on a concept car
CBS
An image in the Walter Isaacson books seems to be a mock-up of a Model 2. Take a good look at both the product and the pictures on the wall behind it. It appears to be a three-wheel, tear-shaped vehicle. Aptera also has three wheels. The company says it "leads the pack by having the least "rolling resistance" — the energy needed to keep your tires rolling at a straight and steady pace."
Going to three wheels reduces the touch points and areas where energy can be lost. It could incorporate unconventional headlights or eliminate the traditional trunk. The Aptera's radically efficient design offers a glimpse of such out-of-the-box thinking.
Rethinking Doors and the Frunk: Simplifying Structure
Volkswagen's XL1
TopGear
While a four-door design is conventional, a two-door Model 2 would be simpler and likely cheaper to manufacture. Moreover, since the frunk primarily serves as storage in electric vehicles, Tesla could consider eliminating it altogether. This recalls Volkswagen's audacious 1-litre car concept, which featured gullwing doors and a futuristic design.
But we don't need to go back that far, as again, we can point to Aptera's design. The two-door, two-seater has storage room but certainly not to the same level as a Model 3. Given this Model 2 is going to be a point A to point B car, how much storage space is required?
Aero Wheel Design: Balancing Aesthetics with Efficiency
Tesla's Model 3 aero wheels have already demonstrated the balance between aesthetics and efficiency, offering up to a 3.4% boost in range. The Model 2 could take this further by fully enclosing the wheels or adopting innovative designs similar to the McLaren Speedtail's aerodynamic front wheel covers. It could go even further than that; see the next point.
Fender Skirts: Maximizing Range
A render of the Model S with fender skirts
Road and Track
Historically, fender skirts have shown a marked improvement in fuel efficiency. The original Honda Insight from 1999 achieved a drag coefficient of 0.25 with its covered rear wheels. By re-introducing fender skirts, Tesla could further streamline its impressive aerodynamics, extending the Model 2's range. But, as General Motors pointed out, this could require certain design adjustments, like narrower rear tires, to maintain safety and handling.
Mirrorless Design: Reducing Drag
The original Tesla Cybertruck prototype didn't have mirrors
Tesla
Mirrors add drag, and if Tesla can persuade regulators, a mirrorless design would make the Model 2 even more streamlined. Replacing mirrors with cameras has been around for a while. Still, Tesla could be the one to popularize this in mass-market EVs. The company has already been touting this as a feature for the Cybertruck. However, some jurisdictions require external mirrors. At some point during the evolution of the car, regulators must understand that camera technology is superior to mirrors.
While these speculations are based on current trends and historical data, one thing is certain: Tesla's Model 2 will challenge conventions. As the company delves deeper into achieving unmatched manufacturing efficiency and affordability, the Model 2 will likely carry Tesla's legacy of innovation.
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There has been extensive reporting on what the long-anticipated affordable EV option would become, and we’ve seen numerous news stories mentioning that it was delayed or even arriving on time. The executive team revealed the near-term and long-term plans for Tesla’s upcoming vehicles, and there’s definitely good news to share here.
Updated Timeline
The most important piece of news is that despite all the talk of delays from supposed inside sources, Tesla has confirmed that the plan for its more affordable model remains on schedule for production to begin in the first half of 2025. Tesla’s executive team narrowed that timeline down further - and said that they expect production to kick off as soon as June and that the new model will be in the market shortly thereafter.
While the production timeline itself is on track, Tesla did note that the subsequent ramping process will likely be slower than initially hoped, citing global tariff and financial impacts as challenges to overcome to prepare its production lines.
Hybrid Production Approach
Tesla has once again confirmed that this will not be their next-generation vehicle, built using new production methods. Instead, they outlined a relatively more pragmatic approach for this new model.
Tesla will utilize aspects of both the next-generation platform as well as some parts of its current platforms (namely the Model 3 and Model Y). This means that Tesla will produce this new vehicle on the same manufacturing lines as the Model 3 and Model Y.
This strategy allows Tesla to bring the vehicle to the market more quickly, while also managing capital expenditures more efficiently by using existing infrastructure. However, Tesla’s executive team also noted that this approach, while faster, will result in fewer cost reductions than what might have been achieved with an entirely new platform and dedicated manufacturing process.
Vehicle Design
Using these existing production lines means that Tesla’s new vehicle will likely share some considerable similarities with either the existing Model 3 or Model Y. Rather than being a radically different and smaller vehicle, this new model will resemble the overall form factor and shape of Tesla’s current core offerings, while being optimized for a lower cost.
This doesn’t mean that Tesla is forgetting the overall goal here. Their ultimate goal is to reduce the initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments for customers while maintaining a standard of excellence and safety.
Not Unboxed
Both at this Earnings Call and previous ones, Tesla has indicated that this new vehicle will not be using the innovative unboxed assembly method, at least for the time being. That relatively unique method will be developed and implemented specifically for the purpose-built Cybercab and for future vehicles on the next-generation platform.
We’re just a few days away from May, so it won’t be long before we see more about this upcoming vehicle. Stay tuned.
In a follow-up move to the current US administration’s goals to introduce a federal framework for autonomous vehicles, the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) is loosening autonomy restrictions following an announcement from Secretary Sean Duffy on X. This new initiative helps streamline complex regulatory processes and foster home-grown innovation.
From the Wright Brothers to the first astronauts on the moon, our nation has always been at the forefront of transportation technology.
That’s why today we're unveiling a new Automated Vehicle Framework from @USDOT’s Innovation Agenda ⬇️ ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/W3kbMUwQSn
As part of the broader upcoming USDOT Innovation Agenda, the newly unveiled AV Framework is designed to promote American innovation and strengthen domestic engineering while maintaining existing safety standards. The framework centers around three key principles:
Prioritize Safety
Unleash Innovation
Enable Commercial Deployment
To kickstart this AV framework, USDOT announced two initial steps focused on streamlining processes and expanding opportunities.
Crash Reporting Requirements
Under the first principle to Prioritize Safety, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) will maintain its Standing General Order requiring crash reporting on Advanced and Automated Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and ADS).
However, the reporting process will be streamlined following feedback from AV innovators, likely including Tesla. The goal here is to focus on collecting critical safety information while removing unnecessary or duplicative items from the reporting process, thereby reducing the burden without compromising safety.
Cutting Red Tape
Directly tied to the second principle of Unleash Innovation, the framework also seeks to slash red tape. The first step here is the expansion of the Automated Vehicle Exemption Program, or AVEP. This program allows manufacturers to petition for temporary exemptions from certain federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) for testing or deployment purposes.
Previously, the standard excluded domestically produced vehicles. Now, domestically produced AVs will not need to meet FMVSS, which will broaden the scope for manufacturers to test more innovative and unique designs and technologies.
Single National Standard for AVs
Finally, tied to the third principle of Enable Commerical Development, USDOT intends to move the United States closer to a single national standard for autonomous vehicles. This aims to prevent a confusing and inefficient patchwork of state-level or city-level laws and regulations, which can create hurdles for companies attempting to innovate, deploy, and scale their technology.
A unified standard across the United States also means that Canada and Mexico will likely be able to follow, as they share homologization standards across North America, including for vehicle crash safety and some autonomy regulations.
What This Means for Tesla
These framework changes will likely have a substantial impact on Tesla. The move towards a national standard is potentially the most impactful change, as Tesla identified regulatory hurdles as one of the most significant challenges it will face with the deployment of both Unsupervised FSD and its Robotaxi network.
The reduction of FMVSS requirements and streamlined reporting will likely play a role in the future as well. The FMVSS requirements are probably already being worked on, if not already met, by the Cybercab and other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup.
Meanwhile, the streamlined reporting will be helpful once Tesla officially launches its Robotaxi network in June.
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