Why You May Still be on Tesla Update 2024.8.9 or 2024.3.25 and What to Expect

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

Tesla’s latest set of updates has been fast-moving, with lots of bug fixes, and this fits with Musk’s philosophy of moving fast and breaking things. Some people are still on 2024.8.9, some are still on 2024.3.25, and some people are already on the 2024.14.8 Spring Update, and there’s also the brand-new 2024.20 update that just went out to employees for testing.

Let’s take a look at how Tesla’s software distribution system works, and why you are where you are.

Statistics

Before diving deep into how it all works, let’s get some statistics out of the way. We’ll be using the statistics we use here on the site, which are powered by TeslaFi.

The vehicles on each update
The vehicles on each update
Not a Tesla App

As we can see, the tracked fleet is about 30% 2024.14 – the spring update; 2024.8 – Tesla’s previous major update, which contains FSD V11; and 2024.3 – the FSD V12.3 update. The remaining fleet on 2023.44 or other updates is fairly negligible, at around 10%.

So, about 65% of the tracked fleet has access to FSD V12, depending on their country of origin. The remaining 25% of the fleet only has access to FSD V11 if they’re in an eligible region.

FSD Update Track

When someone subscribes or purchases FSD in the U.S. or Canada, Tesla enables the FSD feature on that vehicle’s firmware, which currently could be either FSD v11 or FSD v12.

Once you’ve subscribed to FSD, you’re generally put on the ‘FSD Track,’ which means you’ll start receiving the latest FSD updates, like FSD v12.4. These updates are usually exclusive to FSD subscribers as they serve as a testing ground for the latest FSD revision. They’ve been update versions such as 2024.9.5, 2024.3.25, 2023.27.5 and so on. In the past year or so, they’ve all been odd week numbers, but that hasn’t always been the case.

However, the downside is that Tesla develops FSD at a different pace, and while you’re one of the earlier individuals to test out the latest FSD version, these updates are usually several major updates behind Tesla’s latest, meaning you don’t always have access to Tesla’s latest features. Currently, these are owners on update 2024.3.25 who are waiting on FSD v12.4, but still don’t have the Tesla features in update 2024.8 or 2024.14.

Vehicle Eligibility

Not all vehicles are eligible for all updates, and this is a twofold reason. First, if you’re on an update that is on a newer branch, say 2024.8.9, you cannot go down to 2024.3.5. The version number is broken down to year, week number and revision. So update 2024.8.9 is the 9th revision of the update that was created on the 8th week of 2024.

In general, Tesla does not roll back versions, so if someone is already on update 2024.14, then their vehicle wouldn’t be eligible for FSD 12.4, which is update 2024.9.5. This is mainly due to potential issues since Tesla doesn’t thoroughly test rolling back software.

Your vehicle will always be eligible for updates on a later branch, even if you won’t necessarily receive that update – like the many owners on update 2024.8 or 2024.3 who haven’t received update 2024.14 yet.

The second factor is hardware. Vehicles on older hardware variants, or vehicles that are considered to be legacy, are just not eligible for some updates. This is something that Tesla decides as newer hardware is needed for newer features and support for legacy hardware may not be included in all updates.

If you’ve subscribed to FSD and you’re on update 2024.8.9 and wondering why you’re not receiving update 2024.14, that’s why. Tesla wants your vehicle to be eligible for the next FSD v12.4 update, which will be update 2024.9.5.

Vehicle Variants

Sometimes, updates are not sent out widely for the simple reason of hardware variants. Tesla’s fleet has become widely fractured over the years, with many different variants of vehicles on the road today. Some 2022 Model Y’s may have Matrix headlights, while some may not, and some may have USS, while others don’t. Most have HW3, but a few have HW4!

That’s 6 possible branching variants in one year – a total of 24 possible variants for just the 2022 Model Y, not including the Performance, Long-Range, Rear-Wheel Drive, 4680-cell Rear-Wheel Drive, and the odd 2022 Standard-Range Dual-Motor variants that are also all different! If you did the math, there are 362 thousand possible variants, but not likely more than ~40 or so actual builds that Tesla differentiates between for software for all vehicles.

Of course, Tesla has managed to pare down these variants through the 2023 and 2024 model years, with greatly simplified production chains, with the removal of USS in favor of Tesla Vision, the full move to Hardware 4 across all factories, and Matrix headlights becoming standard globally. But all those existing vehicles are not legacy, and still need updates.

That means a complex and well-thought-out update process has to be built in order to deploy a functional update to all these vehicle variants.

Bug Fixing

Besides the complexity of vehicle variants, Tesla also has to catch and fix bugs. No matter how good one is at software development, sometimes bugs just escape into the wild. And fixing those bugs is essential since they could leave a vehicle undriveable. Although a major issue is rare, Tesla has had some issues in the past, such as Automatic Emergency Braking being disabled due to a software issue. This is why Tesla rolls out updates gradually.

We’ve seen this play out with update 2024.14, which has received numerous bug-fix releases. Tesla will release an update to a set of cars, discover an issue, and stop the rollout. A few days later, another update is out with additional fixes, and so on.

Conclusion

So, if you’re stuck on update 2024.8.9 or 2024.3.25, and are wondering when you’ll get FSD V12 or the Spring Update, you’ll have to hang on – the author is also on 2024.8.9 with V11!

Elon Musk mentioned on X that FSD V12.4 should be the update the reduces FSD branching and will bring everyone to FSD V12 in general. 2024.9.5 is the FSD V12.4 update, and it looks like vehicles that are below that branch number should be collectively receiving the reduced-nag V12.4 update.

When we finally receive FSD V12.4, we’ll likely need to hang on for a little longer until FSD V12.4.1 or FSD V12.5 rolls along to have the Spring Update.

Optimus - What We Learned About Tesla's Robotic Future

By Karan Singh
Optimus Gen 2
Optimus Gen 2
Tesla

Optimus was a major point of coverage at the 2024 Tesla Shareholder meeting, and we’ll help break down some of the key points for those interested in Tesla’s future humanoid robots.

What Is It?

Optimus is Tesla’s humanoid robot, built entirely in-house, from the batteries to the motors and actuators in the arms, legs, and hands. Tesla has taken a unique design approach to Optimus and intends to have it replace humans in mundane or risky tasks.

It is a bipedal robot, built around the same aspect as the human body. Optimus was originally unveiled in August 2021 and has since seen several major design iterations. And those aren’t the only ones, Optimus is scheduled to undergo at least one more major design revision this year, as well as one more major design revision for its hands – which will feature 22 degrees of freedom.

In comparison, the human hand has 27 degrees of freedom – Tesla is quite close to replicating the complexity of a hand in its custom-designed hands. Musk mentioned that with the 22 degrees of freedom, Optimus is capable of learning and playing music on a piano – an intricate task that many humans find difficult today.

Best of all, they’ve placed the immense learning prowess of FSD behind its brains – each Optimus unit runs similar hardware and software as Tesla cars . It can also navigate autonomously, using the same object recognition and learning that Tesla’s cars use every day. Optimus learns from watching humans do things or can be taught how to do something by a remote operator. Elon Musk also mentioned that it will eventually be able to watch a video and learn how to do a task.

What Can It Do?

Elon Musk has mentioned that Optimus’ primary goal is to replace humans in certain tasks, especially those that could put a human at risk. This could be anything from being a humanoid companion or caretaker, a construction worker, or even working in factories. Of course, it has a focus on high-precision tasks, owing to its intricately designed hands, and is intended to replace human workers doing everyday precision work that robots today cannot do.

The primary goal is to have Optimus robots begin working in factories, and to this end, two have been deployed to one of Tesla’s factories, and are working on the battery cell assembly lines in a prototype and testing deployment. Today, these two units are moving battery cells off the production line and into shipping containers.

2:1 Robot to Human Ratio

There are some ambitious plans for Optimus – Elon Musk envisions that there will be 2 humanoid robots for every human on the planet in the future. This is alongside an eye-watering build rate of 1 billion humanoid robots a year – of which Tesla intends to build at least 100 million per year or more.

With these numbers, Tesla sees the market cap for Optimus as double that of FSD – approximately $20 trillion, with an expected profit of $1 trillion per year at scale. That’s an expected profit of $10,000 per unit, which will be quite the achievement.

When’s It Coming?

Given the fact that Tesla still has design revisions planned, scale production isn’t starting anytime soon. However, Elon Musk did mention that Tesla currently plans to have approximately 1000 to 2000 Optimus units deployed for internal use in Tesla factories by the end of next year. This limited production run will be the start of Tesla’s larger Optimus deployments and will serve to help them refine the FSD stack that runs Optimus, helping teach it the many tasks it could do in a factory.

Costs

The next big question is what it will cost. Musk has mentioned that it will cost less than a car – with an expected cost of $20,000 USD, once large-scale production kicks off. Just like the Cybertruck, that means initial adopters will be faced with fairly high adoption costs for the initial production runs. Economies of scale will eventually lower the cost as more units are produced.

One of Tesla’s significant challenges will be scaling to reduce these costs. Currently, each unit is hand-built in Tesla’s Optimus labs. Eventually, this will have to scaled up to a proper production line, which will require a factory. Optimus also uses 4680 cells, which means some production of the newer 4680 batteries will be required to produce Optimus.

So perhaps, someday soon, there will be an Optimus knocking on your door, delivering itself to help you take care of your home. Definitely a bright future to look forward to.

A Better Routeplanner 5.0 Launches; Adds EV Charger Ratings Using Rivian Data

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

A Better Routeplanner 5.0 launched yesterday, and there are some pretty awesome features coming to all EV owners courtesy of Rivian. Rivian purchased ABRP last year and has made good on its promises to continue its improvement and ensure it remains open to all EV owners.

Charger Scoring

Rivian recently added a feature that would rate any chargers compatible with Rivian vehicles. The list of chargers includes Rivian Adventure Network (RAN) chargers, Tesla Superchargers and any other compatible third-party chargers. The charger score is automatically calculated based on the station's average top speed and reliability.

With the launch of ABRP 5.0, Rivian is integrating its charger scores directly into the free tier of ABRP so that all EV owners can benefit. ABRP users will now be able to see charger scores, and ABRP will automatically route users to chargers with higher scores if they are available on your route.

Google Automotive

Another cool feature for ABRP is that it will now be available as an app to install and use directly in vehicles that support Google Automotive. Any EV that uses Google Automotive, including Volvo,  Polestar, Ford, and GM will support the in-system experience, which will also provide data for charger scoring and routing.

This will be an excellent way to hold third-party networks accountable, which have commonly suffered from uptime or speed issues.

Tesla’s Implementation

Tesla previously implemented a “Qualified Third-Party Charger” program, that would allow highly-rated third-party chargers that meet a strict set of requirements to be displayed directly in the vehicle. However, this is currently limited to Europe and parts of the Middle East. Within North America, Tesla only displays third-party Tesla destination chargers in addition to Superchargers.

While Tesla doesn’t directly show charger scores, they clearly are tracking charge data, and are providing the cream of the crop of third-party chargers for navigation where the program is available. We’d hope that this implementation of qualified third-party chargers also comes to North America, as NACS is becoming the de facto standard for charging.

If Tesla does expand the display of third-party chargers to other regions, it’ll likely be similar to what we see in Europe today, and won’t be as open as Rivian’s implementation in ABRP.

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