Why You May Still be on Tesla Update 2024.8.9 or 2024.3.25 and What to Expect

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Tesla’s latest set of updates has been fast-moving, with lots of bug fixes, and this fits with Musk’s philosophy of moving fast and breaking things. Some people are still on 2024.8.9, some are still on 2024.3.25, and some people are already on the 2024.14.8 Spring Update, and there’s also the brand-new 2024.20 update that just went out to employees for testing.

Let’s take a look at how Tesla’s software distribution system works, and why you are where you are.

Statistics

Before diving deep into how it all works, let’s get some statistics out of the way. We’ll be using the statistics we use here on the site, which are powered by TeslaFi.

The vehicles on each update

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As we can see, the tracked fleet is about 30% 2024.14 – the spring update; 2024.8 – Tesla’s previous major update, which contains FSD V11; and 2024.3 – the FSD V12.3 update. The remaining fleet on 2023.44 or other updates is fairly negligible, at around 10%.

So, about 65% of the tracked fleet has access to FSD V12, depending on their country of origin. The remaining 25% of the fleet only has access to FSD V11 if they’re in an eligible region.

FSD Update Track

When someone subscribes or purchases FSD in the U.S. or Canada, Tesla enables the FSD feature on that vehicle’s firmware, which currently could be either FSD v11 or FSD v12.

Once you’ve subscribed to FSD, you’re generally put on the ‘FSD Track,’ which means you’ll start receiving the latest FSD updates, like FSD v12.4. These updates are usually exclusive to FSD subscribers as they serve as a testing ground for the latest FSD revision. They’ve been update versions such as 2024.9.5, 2024.3.25, 2023.27.5 and so on. In the past year or so, they’ve all been odd week numbers, but that hasn’t always been the case.

However, the downside is that Tesla develops FSD at a different pace, and while you’re one of the earlier individuals to test out the latest FSD version, these updates are usually several major updates behind Tesla’s latest, meaning you don’t always have access to Tesla’s latest features. Currently, these are owners on update 2024.3.25 who are waiting on FSD v12.4, but still don’t have the Tesla features in update 2024.8 or 2024.14.

Vehicle Eligibility

Not all vehicles are eligible for all updates, and this is a twofold reason. First, if you’re on an update that is on a newer branch, say 2024.8.9, you cannot go down to 2024.3.5. The version number is broken down to year, week number and revision. So update 2024.8.9 is the 9th revision of the update that was created on the 8th week of 2024.

In general, Tesla does not roll back versions, so if someone is already on update 2024.14, then their vehicle wouldn’t be eligible for FSD 12.4, which is update 2024.9.5. This is mainly due to potential issues since Tesla doesn’t thoroughly test rolling back software.

Your vehicle will always be eligible for updates on a later branch, even if you won’t necessarily receive that update – like the many owners on update 2024.8 or 2024.3 who haven’t received update 2024.14 yet.

The second factor is hardware. Vehicles on older hardware variants, or vehicles that are considered to be legacy, are just not eligible for some updates. This is something that Tesla decides as newer hardware is needed for newer features and support for legacy hardware may not be included in all updates.

If you’ve subscribed to FSD and you’re on update 2024.8.9 and wondering why you’re not receiving update 2024.14, that’s why. Tesla wants your vehicle to be eligible for the next FSD v12.4 update, which will be update 2024.9.5.

Vehicle Variants

Sometimes, updates are not sent out widely for the simple reason of hardware variants. Tesla’s fleet has become widely fractured over the years, with many different variants of vehicles on the road today. Some 2022 Model Y’s may have Matrix headlights, while some may not, and some may have USS, while others don’t. Most have HW3, but a few have HW4!

That’s 6 possible branching variants in one year – a total of 24 possible variants for just the 2022 Model Y, not including the Performance, Long-Range, Rear-Wheel Drive, 4680-cell Rear-Wheel Drive, and the odd 2022 Standard-Range Dual-Motor variants that are also all different! If you did the math, there are 362 thousand possible variants, but not likely more than ~40 or so actual builds that Tesla differentiates between for software for all vehicles.

Of course, Tesla has managed to pare down these variants through the 2023 and 2024 model years, with greatly simplified production chains, with the removal of USS in favor of Tesla Vision, the full move to Hardware 4 across all factories, and Matrix headlights becoming standard globally. But all those existing vehicles are not legacy, and still need updates.

That means a complex and well-thought-out update process has to be built in order to deploy a functional update to all these vehicle variants.

Bug Fixing

Besides the complexity of vehicle variants, Tesla also has to catch and fix bugs. No matter how good one is at software development, sometimes bugs just escape into the wild. And fixing those bugs is essential since they could leave a vehicle undriveable. Although a major issue is rare, Tesla has had some issues in the past, such as Automatic Emergency Braking being disabled due to a software issue. This is why Tesla rolls out updates gradually.

We’ve seen this play out with update 2024.14, which has received numerous bug-fix releases. Tesla will release an update to a set of cars, discover an issue, and stop the rollout. A few days later, another update is out with additional fixes, and so on.

Conclusion

So, if you’re stuck on update 2024.8.9 or 2024.3.25, and are wondering when you’ll get FSD V12 or the Spring Update, you’ll have to hang on – the author is also on 2024.8.9 with V11!

Elon Musk mentioned on X that FSD V12.4 should be the update the reduces FSD branching and will bring everyone to FSD V12 in general. 2024.9.5 is the FSD V12.4 update, and it looks like vehicles that are below that branch number should be collectively receiving the reduced-nag V12.4 update.

When we finally receive FSD V12.4, we’ll likely need to hang on for a little longer until FSD V12.4.1 or FSD V12.5 rolls along to have the Spring Update.

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Tesla Announces FSD Transfers Will Return for One More Quarter; More FSD Trials Coming

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During Tesla’s shareholder meeting, Elon Musk was asked if FSD transfers could return for existing owners. He hemmed and hawed, but eventually gave in when an audience member asked if they could return for just one more quarter.

Final Chance?

This could be the last chance for FSD owners to transfer their FSD capability to a new vehicle. Elon Musk mentioned that it removes revenue from upcoming vehicle sales. Every time Tesla offers FSD transfers, it impacts Tesla’s potential earnings.

On the flip side, it does incentivize current owners to upgrade to newer vehicles, especially if it’s a limited-time offer. Tesla previously offered FSD transfers in Q3 of 2023. FSD transfers are expected to be limited to North America where FSD software is currently available.

When Will Tesla Offer FSD Transfers

Musk nor Tesla mentioned a timeline for when FSD transfers would begin. Tesla owners looking to upgrade their vehicles would likely wait for this offer to be available before buying their new Tesla. Since this would reduce some vehicle sales, it seems that Tesla wouldn’t want to wait too long before making FSD transfers available again.

FSD Transfers in the Future

While Elon Musk didn’t seem to be too enthused with the idea of continuing transfers but gave in to “just one more quarter”, there could be more down the road.

Musk has said that Tesla has various demand “levers” they can use to increase or slow demand as needed. FSD transfers and Tesla’s referral program are prime examples of those levers. Although Musk says Tesla will only offer FSD transfers one more time, Tesla won’t hesitate to offer it again if they need to increase sales. Tesla faced this situation when the new Model 3 was unveiled in China, but it took several months for it to be offered in North America.

Additional FSD Trials

Elon Musk confirmed that two free weeks of FSD would be given to all vehicle owners whenever a major FSD update hits. We don’t expect another trial of FSD with the upcoming update of v12.4, but perhaps with v12.5 or 12.6, especially if Tesla adds new features such as ‘Actually Smart Summon,’ which will be the first time Smart Summon is available on a vehicle without ultrasonic sensors.

With Tesla’s app update to v4.34 yesterday, it appears that Tesla may be looking to offer a live video feed of the vehicle’s various cameras while you’re summoning your Tesla.

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Tesla Talks Robotaxi Details, Hardware 5.0 and More - Complete Shareholder Meeting Recap and Notes

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Did you miss the Shareholder Meeting? Want to know what Elon Musk said?

We’ve got an easy-to-read recap for you below, split by sections. We’ll be writing more in-depth about many of these topics over the upcoming days as we unpack all the awesome news!

Robotaxi

• Fleet monetization planning is ongoing.

• Owners will be able to send their cars to the Robotaxi fleet and summon them back when they need them.

• Tesla will take a margin, but most of the income will go to owners.

• Tesla has plans to solve driverless interventions in the future, but expects them to be edge cases of edge cases.

FSD

• Headed towards Unsupervised FSD!

• New subversions are essentially new full versions; 12.4 and 12.5 are massive updates.

• Expect a 2-5x increase in performance between versions.

• Major versions will include a 2-week free trial.

• 10 thousand miles between interventions for some internal builds.

• Hardware 4 training will begin later this year, Hardware 3 will continue to be developed.

• Hardware 5 is 18 months from retail release.

Optimus

• Optimus will be able to do many simple and difficult tasks:

  • Teaching

  • Companionship

  • Babysitting

  • Factory Work

• Tesla expects 2 humanoid robots per person in the future.

• Tesla expects 1000-2000 robots working in its factories by next year, with a limited production run.

• 22 degrees of freedom in the next generation hand, one new major hardware revision coming this year.

Cybertruck

• China and Europe-compliant Cybertruck coming after production is scaled and costs are reduced.

• Foundation series ending soon, non-foundation series starting next quarter.

Semi

• Semi is in low-volume production, high-volume production starting soon.

• Companies are actively choosing Semi due to economic advantages.

• Massive potential impact on carbon emissions

• Big impact on the profitability.

Other New Products

• New products are coming soon, and Tesla is working hard on them.

• Possible 12-passenger van, added to the “To-do” list.

Supercharger

• 58K global sites, and continuing to grow.

• More superchargers deployed this year than the rest of the industry combined.

• Tesla is providing adapters to other car companies and providing them with support for Supercharger access.

• Tesla is moving to fill gaps and relieve congestion where possible.

Battery Production and Stationary Storage

• New 4680 innovations, best cell from a manufacturing and efficiency standpoint.

• 4680 will be a continuing focus to improve over time.

• Tesla has made their battery supply chain stronger and is working on further vertical integration.

• 2023 had 15GWh of Megapack production, 2024 is looking closer to 40GWh.

• 100-200% growth rate in the energy storage market.

• Tesla is constrained by Megapack and Powerwall 3 production, can’t keep up with demand, even as they scale rapidly.

AI and Compute

• AI growth is on a weekly basis, with Tesla taking in video and training on decision-making faster than ever.

• Tesla is not compute-limited for FSD, but scenario-limited.

• There is an AWS-style opportunity for parked vehicles to run distributed inference and compute.

• Tesla intends to introduce LLMs with customizable learning personalities to Optimus and its vehicle lineup.

Investor Facts

• Elon Musk expects $5-10 Trillion valuation for autonomy, and $20 Trillion for Optimus.

• Musk mentioned that Ark Invest has the closest scenario – with Robotaxi releasing in 2025 or 2026, for a 110x valuation increase.

• Elon’s stock award isn’t cash, and he has no intent to cut-and-run and is with Tesla for the long haul to accomplish the mission.

Other Items

• Tesla Home HVAC, with a built-in HEPA filter, humidity control, super-efficient, super-quiet, with Powerwall integration – one day.

• Kids Factory Tour Event – for children under 12!

If you’d like to watch the shareholder meeting, you can view it here, along with all the stockholder vote results.

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