Tesla Model 3 Tax Credit Expected to be Reduced After Year End

Tesla's Model 3 is expected to lose half of its tax incentive

Tesla

Tesla has sounded the alarm bells once again regarding the potential reduction in the federal tax credit. As the year-end approaches, potential buyers may want to make a decision and possibly save some money, as there may be a significant impact on the final price tag of their electric car.

The December Dilemma

The order page for the Model 3 now states:

All new Model 3 vehicles currently qualify for a federal tax credit for eligible buyers. $7,500 tax credit expected to reduce to $3,750 on Dec 31, pending federal guidance. Take delivery to guarantee full incentive.

Changes to the Tax Credit

The 2024 tax credit's eligibility criteria will tighten. Specifically, the requirement for critical minerals used in batteries, such as those extracted or recycled within the U.S. (or nations with a U.S. free trade agreement), will increase from 40% to 50%. Furthermore, the mandate for battery components will also intensify, with 60% of these components needing domestic manufacturing or production within free trade agreement nations. Vehicles that don't meet these more stringent guidelines will only access half the credit, $3,750 USD.

A Flashback to July's Warning

We've heard the warning before. In July, Tesla made a somewhat ambiguous warning about the impending decrease of the coveted $7,500 tax credit on some of its vehicle models. Back then, while all Model Ys were eligible for the full credit, the base version of the Model 3 faced a restriction due to its use of Chinese battery cells. This particular battery choice made it eligible for just half the credit. The higher-end models, Model S and Model X, didn't qualify because of their premium pricing. In an exciting twist, Tesla announced that even the base Model 3 would be eligible for the full tax credit.

The Highland is Coming

Fast forward to the present, Tesla is again cautioning its consumers. It is worth noting that Tesla plans to roll out the new Model 3 Highland to North America in 2024. While it hasn't reached the U.S. shores yet, this development could be strategic. Clearing out stocks of the older design Model 3s before the Highland's U.S. debut could be why Tesla urges consumers to capitalize on the current tax incentives by taking delivery soon.

Also, Tesla missed its third-quarter projections. There are plenty of valid reasons behind having fewer deliveries. However, the point remains that the numbers were down. If we have learned anything about Elon Musk over the years, he likes to show constant improvement. We saw this late last year when Tesla rolled out some significant price decreases as the end of the year approached.

As we venture into 2024, some pivotal shifts are expected in the electric vehicle federal tax credit framework. The most notable change is the point of access - it will transition from a tax rebate to an immediate discount at the dealership.

Tesla reiterates concerns about the potential tax credit reduction, and prospective buyers must be proactive. The clock is ticking, and decisions made in the next few months could save some cash or be a moot point.

Tesla's 2025 Q1 Earnings Call: How to Listen [Stream Links Added]

Not a Tesla App

Tesla is holding its 2025 Q1 earnings call today at 2:30 pm PT / 5:30 pm ET / 9:30 pm UTC. The earnings call will be followed by a Q&A session with Tesla executives, including Elon Musk.

We expect the focus to be on Tesla sales for the quarter, FSD Unsupservised and the Robotaxi network. Tesla may also discuss its upcoming, more affordable model, Optimus, and other products.

Listen Live

The event will be live-streamed on Tesla’s site. It is also expected to be streamed on X and YouTube like it has been in the past. Tesla has changed this from an Earnings Call to a Company Update, but it’s unclear whether the phrase change holds any significance in what will be shared.

Update: You can listen to Tesla’s earnings call live below. If you prefer, you can also listen live on Tesla’s website.

Start Time

Tesla's live stream starts at 2:30 pm PT, which is the following times around the world:

2:30 pm Pacific Time

5:30 pm Eastern Time

10:30 pm UTC

10:30 pm - London, England

11:30 pm - Berlin, Germany

9:30 am (April 23rd) - Sydney, Australia

Q&A Questions

The questions asked during the Q&A portion of the call come directly from investors. These are currently the top-voted questions, so we’ll likely see answers to several of these questions:

1. What are the highest risk items on the critical path to robotaxi launch and scaling?

2. When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?

3. Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?

4. Does Tesla see robotaxi as a winner-take-most market, and as you approach the Austin launch, how do you expect to compare against Waymo’s offering, especially regarding pricing, geofencing and regulatory flexibility?

5. Can you please provide an update on the unboxed method and how that is progressing?

6. How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?

7. Does Tesla still have a battery supply constraint (noted on Q4 ER call) and how does this change w/tariffs?

8. Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?

9. Regarding the Tesla Optimus pilot line, could you confirm if it is currently operational? If so, what is the current production rate of Optimus bots per week? Additionally, how might the recent tariffs impact the scalability of this production line moving forward?

10. Robotaxi still on track for this year?’

Look Back at 2025 Q1 Numbers

Most of Tesla’s Q1 deliveries, 323,800 units, were unsurprisingly for the Model 3 and Model Y, while the “Other Models” category (including the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X) accounted for 12,881 deliveries.

Comparing these numbers to Q1 2024, the Model 3/Y is down about 13%, while the Model S/X and Cybertruck are down about 24%.

In terms of production, Tesla built 345,454 Model 3/Y vehicles and 17,161 from its “Other Models” line. The company attributed the production drop to the Model Y changeover but stated that the ramp is “going well.” However, deliveries and production were both down year over year.

Although Tesla doesn’t officially break down its numbers by region, Troy Teslike, who closely monitors Tesla's delivery and production numbers has provided estimates that show Tesla’s deliveries across regions. Tesla delivered the most vehicles in China this past quarter, so it’ll be interesting to see if this trend continues.

His estimates for the regional break down are below:

We expect a large portion of Tesla’s earnings call to focus on the long-awaited launch of its Robotaxi, and we will hopefully receive an update on its upcoming, more affordable model, which is rumored to be delayed.

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New Castings Spotted at Giga Texas Likely Intended for Tesla Cybercab

@JoeTegtmeyer

Tesla’s Giga Texas factory usually gives us the first site of Tesla’s upcoming products. We first saw the Cybertruck and Model Y castings here. With Giga Texas being one of Tesla’s largest factories, it’s logical that most products would originate here.

Tesla has also stated that it intends to manufacture the Cybercab, Semi, the next-generation vehicle, and Optimus at Giga Texas over the coming years. The affordable vehicle and Cybercab were originally intended to be manufactured at Giga Mexico, but the plans for that facility were waylaid by changes in economic policy.

Robotaxi Castings

These new castings were spotted by Joe Tegtmeyer, who regularly does drone flights of Giga Texas. Joe pointed out that these castings don’t look like the usual Model Y or Cybertruck castings usually seen outside Giga Texas.

With an eagle eye, @minusYCore on X also spotted some interesting text on the frames holding the castings up. In particular, the castings say “RTTX050” and “W68-RSF AS-CAST”. These could be interpreted as ‘Robotaxi Texas’ and ‘Rear SubFrame,’ as Tesla marks Cybertruck castings as “CTTX.” The as-cast portion indicates that these particular castings haven’t been trimmed yet, according to the X user.

The castings laid out.

@JoeTegtmeyer

The size and shape of these castings—combined with rumors that Tesla’s more affordable vehicle has been delayed—suggest that these castings are intended for the Cybercab.

These castings are much flatter and appear to be a different size than the castings found throughout Giga Texas, indicating that they are intended for an entirely different product.

It’s possible that these are the first castings used by Tesla to test their unboxed assembly process, which the Cybercab is expected to rely on. If you take a closer look at the video below, you’ll note that these new castings look very similar to the ones in the unboxed assembly video.

Interestingly, Tesla did say that they don’t intend to have the Cybercab available for customers before late 2026 or early 2027, but we’ll likely hear updated timelines as Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call tomorrow.

A more vertical look at the castings.

@JoeTegtmeyer

New Giga Presses

To top it all off, new parts for a Giga Press - the machine Tesla uses to make these castings - were also sighted in Texas. These machines are few and far between, and each one is highly specialized for the particular vehicle it produces. Seeing new parts coming in usually indicates that a new assembly line is under construction, or that changes are being made to an existing line to either expand it or update it.

There’s a lot happening and we will hopefully know more tomorrow evening.

New Giga Press parts

@JoeTegtmeyer

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