Musk Reveals Final Piece in Tesla's Full Self-Driving Puzzle: AI-Based Vehicle Control

By Kevin Armstrong
Musk states that Tesla's final piece of the FSD puzzle will be AI vehicle control
Musk states that Tesla's final piece of the FSD puzzle will be AI vehicle control
Not a Tesla App

Elon Musk stated that Tesla is now closing in on the 'final piece' of its FSD technology. This game-changing piece of the puzzle is none other than the AI-based 'vehicle control' - the driving force behind how the car navigates in its environment.

A large portion of our readers said "two weeks" when reading that opening paragraph. Undoubtedly, Musk has been promising fully autonomous driving is close for years. However, he also admitted two years ago that he didn't realize how difficult autonomous driving would be when he stated, "Generalized self-driving is a hard problem… I didn’t expect it to be so hard." That acknowledgment makes this latest bold statement even more compelling. Are we really at the final stages? It would line up with Musk's earlier statement that the next version of FSD would be out of beta.

Simplifying the Complex: An Evolution in Vehicle Control Coding

The role of vehicle control in the FSD system is paramount. It enables the car to execute critical operations such as steering, accelerating, or braking based on decisions informed by the surrounding environment. It's like the final act of an orchestra, where the car translates all the data collected from sensors and AI processing into movement.

Musk's latest tweet (or X?) suggests a massive leap forward in this respect. He stated that Tesla will "drop >300k lines of C++ control code by ~2 orders of magnitude". In layman's terms, Tesla plans to significantly simplify the complexity of the vehicle control code - by nearly a hundred times. This suggests a significant evolution in Tesla's approach to vehicle control, transitioning from traditional coding to more advanced machine learning or neural network approaches.

Training the Tech: Limitations and Future Prospects

Such a simplification doesn't just mean less code but also signals a massive boost in efficiency and reliability. It's as if Tesla is cutting out the unnecessary noise in the conversation between the car and its driving environment, enabling a smoother, safer, and more intelligent drive.

Even as Tesla strives towards this vision, Musk, who recently said that v12 of FSD is mind-blowing, acknowledges that progress is not without its bottlenecks. In the same tweet, he remarked, "Our progress is currently training compute constrained, not engineer constrained." While this highlights the intensive computational demands of training these sophisticated AI systems, it also subtly nods toward Tesla's dedication to overcoming these hurdles.

The path to full self-driving is filled with complex challenges, and it's clear that Tesla is tackling them head-on. With vehicle control being hailed as the final piece of the FSD puzzle, it seems that Tesla may be closer than ever to realizing its goal of a fully autonomous driving future. And as Musk has hinted, the only roadblock is computational resources, which Tesla has repeatedly shown it's more than capable of overcoming.

Tesla Announces FSD Transfers Will Return for One More Quarter; More FSD Trials Coming

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

During Tesla’s shareholder meeting, Elon Musk was asked if FSD transfers could return for existing owners. He hemmed and hawed, but eventually gave in when an audience member asked if they could return for just one more quarter.

Final Chance?

This could be the last chance for FSD owners to transfer their FSD capability to a new vehicle. Elon Musk mentioned that it removes revenue from upcoming vehicle sales. Every time Tesla offers FSD transfers, it impacts Tesla’s potential earnings.

On the flip side, it does incentivize current owners to upgrade to newer vehicles, especially if it’s a limited-time offer. Tesla previously offered FSD transfers in Q3 of 2023. FSD transfers are expected to be limited to North America where FSD software is currently available.

When Will Tesla Offer FSD Transfers

Musk nor Tesla mentioned a timeline for when FSD transfers would begin. Tesla owners looking to upgrade their vehicles would likely wait for this offer to be available before buying their new Tesla. Since this would reduce some vehicle sales, it seems that Tesla wouldn’t want to wait too long before making FSD transfers available again.

FSD Transfers in the Future

While Elon Musk didn’t seem to be too enthused with the idea of continuing transfers but gave in to “just one more quarter”, there could be more down the road.

Musk has said that Tesla has various demand “levers” they can use to increase or slow demand as needed. FSD transfers and Tesla’s referral program are prime examples of those levers. Although Musk says Tesla will only offer FSD transfers one more time, Tesla won’t hesitate to offer it again if they need to increase sales. Tesla faced this situation when the new Model 3 was unveiled in China, but it took several months for it to be offered in North America.

Additional FSD Trials

Elon Musk confirmed that two free weeks of FSD would be given to all vehicle owners whenever a major FSD update hits. We don’t expect another trial of FSD with the upcoming update of v12.4, but perhaps with v12.5 or 12.6, especially if Tesla adds new features such as ‘Actually Smart Summon,’ which will be the first time Smart Summon is available on a vehicle without ultrasonic sensors.

With Tesla’s app update to v4.34 yesterday, it appears that Tesla may be looking to offer a live video feed of the vehicle’s various cameras while you’re summoning your Tesla.

Tesla Talks Robotaxi Details, Hardware 5.0 and More - Complete Shareholder Meeting Recap and Notes

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

Did you miss the Shareholder Meeting? Want to know what Elon Musk said?

We’ve got an easy-to-read recap for you below, split by sections. We’ll be writing more in-depth about many of these topics over the upcoming days as we unpack all the awesome news!

Robotaxi

  • Fleet monetization planning is ongoing.

  • Owners will be able to send their cars to the Robotaxi fleet and summon them back when they need them.

  • Tesla will take a margin, but most of the income will go to owners.

  • Tesla has plans to solve driverless interventions in the future, but expects them to be edge cases of edge cases.

FSD

  • Headed towards Unsupervised FSD!

  • New subversions are essentially new full versions; 12.4 and 12.5 are massive updates.

  • Expect a 2-5x increase in performance between versions.

  • Major versions will include a 2-week free trial.

  • 10 thousand miles between interventions for some internal builds.

  • Hardware 4 training will begin later this year, Hardware 3 will continue to be developed.

  • Hardware 5 is 18 months from retail release.

Optimus

  • Optimus will be able to do many simple and difficult tasks:

    • Teaching

    • Companionship

    • Babysitting

    • Factory Work

  • Tesla expects 2 humanoid robots per person in the future.

  • Tesla expects 1000-2000 robots working in its factories by next year, with a limited production run.

  • 22 degrees of freedom in the next generation hand, one new major hardware revision coming this year.

Cybertruck

  • China and Europe-compliant Cybertruck coming after production is scaled and costs are reduced.

  • Foundation series ending soon, non-foundation series starting next quarter.

Semi

  • Semi is in low-volume production, high-volume production starting soon.

  • Companies are actively choosing Semi due to economic advantages.

  • Massive potential impact on carbon emissions

  • Big impact on the profitability.

Other New Products

  • New products are coming soon, and Tesla is working hard on them.

  • Possible 12-passenger van, added to the “To-do” list.

Supercharger

  • 58K global sites, and continuing to grow.

  • More superchargers deployed this year than the rest of the industry combined.

  • Tesla is providing adapters to other car companies and providing them with support for Supercharger access.

  • Tesla is moving to fill gaps and relieve congestion where possible.

Battery Production and Stationary Storage

  • New 4680 innovations, best cell from a manufacturing and efficiency standpoint.

  • 4680 will be a continuing focus to improve over time.

  • Tesla has made their battery supply chain stronger and is working on further vertical integration.

  • 2023 had 15GWh of Megapack production, 2024 is looking closer to 40GWh.

  • 100-200% growth rate in the energy storage market.

  • Tesla is constrained by Megapack and Powerwall 3 production, can’t keep up with demand, even as they scale rapidly.

AI and Compute

  • AI growth is on a weekly basis, with Tesla taking in video and training on decision-making faster than ever.

  • Tesla is not compute-limited for FSD, but scenario-limited.

  • There is an AWS-style opportunity for parked vehicles to run distributed inference and compute.

  • Tesla intends to introduce LLMs with customizable learning personalities to Optimus and its vehicle lineup.

Investor Facts

  • Elon Musk expects $5-10 Trillion valuation for autonomy, and $20 Trillion for Optimus.

  • Musk mentioned that Ark Invest has the closest scenario – with Robotaxi releasing in 2025 or 2026, for a 110x valuation increase.

  • Elon’s stock award isn’t cash, and he has no intent to cut-and-run and is with Tesla for the long haul to accomplish the mission.

Other Items

  • Tesla Home HVAC, with a built-in HEPA filter, humidity control, super-efficient, super-quiet, with Powerwall integration – one day.

  • Kids Factory Tour Event – for children under 12!

If you’d like to watch the shareholder meeting, you can view it here, along with all the stockholder vote results.

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