Musk states that Tesla's final piece of the FSD puzzle will be AI vehicle control
Not a Tesla App
Elon Musk stated that Tesla is now closing in on the 'final piece' of its FSD technology. This game-changing piece of the puzzle is none other than the AI-based 'vehicle control' - the driving force behind how the car navigates in its environment.
A large portion of our readers said "two weeks" when reading that opening paragraph. Undoubtedly, Musk has been promising fully autonomous driving is close for years. However, he also admitted two years ago that he didn't realize how difficult autonomous driving would be when he stated, "Generalized self-driving is a hard problem… I didn’t expect it to be so hard." That acknowledgment makes this latest bold statement even more compelling. Are we really at the final stages? It would line up with Musk's earlier statement that the next version of FSD would be out of beta.
Simplifying the Complex: An Evolution in Vehicle Control Coding
The role of vehicle control in the FSD system is paramount. It enables the car to execute critical operations such as steering, accelerating, or braking based on decisions informed by the surrounding environment. It's like the final act of an orchestra, where the car translates all the data collected from sensors and AI processing into movement.
Musk's latest tweet (or X?) suggests a massive leap forward in this respect. He stated that Tesla will "drop >300k lines of C++ control code by ~2 orders of magnitude". In layman's terms, Tesla plans to significantly simplify the complexity of the vehicle control code - by nearly a hundred times. This suggests a significant evolution in Tesla's approach to vehicle control, transitioning from traditional coding to more advanced machine learning or neural network approaches.
Training the Tech: Limitations and Future Prospects
Such a simplification doesn't just mean less code but also signals a massive boost in efficiency and reliability. It's as if Tesla is cutting out the unnecessary noise in the conversation between the car and its driving environment, enabling a smoother, safer, and more intelligent drive.
Even as Tesla strives towards this vision, Musk, who recently said that v12 of FSD is mind-blowing, acknowledges that progress is not without its bottlenecks. In the same tweet, he remarked, "Our progress is currently training compute constrained, not engineer constrained." While this highlights the intensive computational demands of training these sophisticated AI systems, it also subtly nods toward Tesla's dedication to overcoming these hurdles.
The path to full self-driving is filled with complex challenges, and it's clear that Tesla is tackling them head-on. With vehicle control being hailed as the final piece of the FSD puzzle, it seems that Tesla may be closer than ever to realizing its goal of a fully autonomous driving future. And as Musk has hinted, the only roadblock is computational resources, which Tesla has repeatedly shown it's more than capable of overcoming.
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There has been extensive reporting on what the long-anticipated affordable EV option would become, and we’ve seen numerous news stories mentioning that it was delayed or even arriving on time. The executive team revealed the near-term and long-term plans for Tesla’s upcoming vehicles, and there’s definitely good news to share here.
Updated Timeline
The most important piece of news is that despite all the talk of delays from supposed inside sources, Tesla has confirmed that the plan for its more affordable model remains on schedule for production to begin in the first half of 2025. Tesla’s executive team narrowed that timeline down further - and said that they expect production to kick off as soon as June and that the new model will be in the market shortly thereafter.
While the production timeline itself is on track, Tesla did note that the subsequent ramping process will likely be slower than initially hoped, citing global tariff and financial impacts as challenges to overcome to prepare its production lines.
Hybrid Production Approach
Tesla has once again confirmed that this will not be their next-generation vehicle, built using new production methods. Instead, they outlined a relatively more pragmatic approach for this new model.
Tesla will utilize aspects of both the next-generation platform as well as some parts of its current platforms (namely the Model 3 and Model Y). This means that Tesla will produce this new vehicle on the same manufacturing lines as the Model 3 and Model Y.
This strategy allows Tesla to bring the vehicle to the market more quickly, while also managing capital expenditures more efficiently by using existing infrastructure. However, Tesla’s executive team also noted that this approach, while faster, will result in fewer cost reductions than what might have been achieved with an entirely new platform and dedicated manufacturing process.
Vehicle Design
Using these existing production lines means that Tesla’s new vehicle will likely share some considerable similarities with either the existing Model 3 or Model Y. Rather than being a radically different and smaller vehicle, this new model will resemble the overall form factor and shape of Tesla’s current core offerings, while being optimized for a lower cost.
This doesn’t mean that Tesla is forgetting the overall goal here. Their ultimate goal is to reduce the initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments for customers while maintaining a standard of excellence and safety.
Not Unboxed
Both at this Earnings Call and previous ones, Tesla has indicated that this new vehicle will not be using the innovative unboxed assembly method, at least for the time being. That relatively unique method will be developed and implemented specifically for the purpose-built Cybercab and for future vehicles on the next-generation platform.
We’re just a few days away from May, so it won’t be long before we see more about this upcoming vehicle. Stay tuned.
In a follow-up move to the current US administration’s goals to introduce a federal framework for autonomous vehicles, the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) is loosening autonomy restrictions following an announcement from Secretary Sean Duffy on X. This new initiative helps streamline complex regulatory processes and foster home-grown innovation.
From the Wright Brothers to the first astronauts on the moon, our nation has always been at the forefront of transportation technology.
That’s why today we're unveiling a new Automated Vehicle Framework from @USDOT’s Innovation Agenda ⬇️ ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/W3kbMUwQSn
As part of the broader upcoming USDOT Innovation Agenda, the newly unveiled AV Framework is designed to promote American innovation and strengthen domestic engineering while maintaining existing safety standards. The framework centers around three key principles:
Prioritize Safety
Unleash Innovation
Enable Commercial Deployment
To kickstart this AV framework, USDOT announced two initial steps focused on streamlining processes and expanding opportunities.
Crash Reporting Requirements
Under the first principle to Prioritize Safety, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) will maintain its Standing General Order requiring crash reporting on Advanced and Automated Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and ADS).
However, the reporting process will be streamlined following feedback from AV innovators, likely including Tesla. The goal here is to focus on collecting critical safety information while removing unnecessary or duplicative items from the reporting process, thereby reducing the burden without compromising safety.
Cutting Red Tape
Directly tied to the second principle of Unleash Innovation, the framework also seeks to slash red tape. The first step here is the expansion of the Automated Vehicle Exemption Program, or AVEP. This program allows manufacturers to petition for temporary exemptions from certain federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) for testing or deployment purposes.
Previously, the standard excluded domestically produced vehicles. Now, domestically produced AVs will not need to meet FMVSS, which will broaden the scope for manufacturers to test more innovative and unique designs and technologies.
Single National Standard for AVs
Finally, tied to the third principle of Enable Commerical Development, USDOT intends to move the United States closer to a single national standard for autonomous vehicles. This aims to prevent a confusing and inefficient patchwork of state-level or city-level laws and regulations, which can create hurdles for companies attempting to innovate, deploy, and scale their technology.
A unified standard across the United States also means that Canada and Mexico will likely be able to follow, as they share homologization standards across North America, including for vehicle crash safety and some autonomy regulations.
What This Means for Tesla
These framework changes will likely have a substantial impact on Tesla. The move towards a national standard is potentially the most impactful change, as Tesla identified regulatory hurdles as one of the most significant challenges it will face with the deployment of both Unsupervised FSD and its Robotaxi network.
The reduction of FMVSS requirements and streamlined reporting will likely play a role in the future as well. The FMVSS requirements are probably already being worked on, if not already met, by the Cybercab and other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup.
Meanwhile, the streamlined reporting will be helpful once Tesla officially launches its Robotaxi network in June.
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