Tesla's Deliveries Set to Exceed Expectations, even with Elon Musk Factor

March 29, 2023

By Kevin Armstrong

Tesla Q1 deliveries are expected to exceed expectations

Harbles/Twitter

Barclays Senior Autos Analyst Dan Levy spoke with Yahoo Finance, highlighting Tesla's cost advantage and the role of Elon Musk in the company's success.

According to Levy, Tesla's first-quarter delivery figures are expected to exceed expectations, with a forecast of 425,000 units, ahead of the consensus of 420,000 units. This positive outlook could catalyze the stock, which has recently faced negative sentiment due to questions about demand.

The Elon Factor: How Musk's Persona Affects Tesla's Branding

Levy addressed the potential impact of Elon Musk's public persona on Tesla's overall branding. While a recent poll indicated that 36% of Americans said Elon Musk makes them less likely to buy a Tesla, Levy stressed the importance of focusing on Tesla's product and cost lead rather than Musk's persona.

Levy acknowledged that Tesla wouldn't have achieved its current status without Musk's guidance and that his unorthodox approach has contributed to the company's success. He also highlighted the investor day event, where 17 people appeared on stage alongside Musk to showcase the depth of Tesla's bench and demonstrate that there is more to Tesla than its CEO.

Tesla's Cost Advantage, A Key to Unlocking Further Volume

Levy emphasized Tesla's significant cost advantage in the electric vehicle (EV) market, which he believes the company will use to unlock further volume by leaning into its margin advantage. He referred to Tesla's investor day, where the company expressed its intention to drive costs down and, in turn, unlock more volume.

This cost advantage is crucial for Tesla as it faces challenges common to other automakers in the EV market, such as ramping up volume and maintaining healthy margins. Levy noted that Tesla's cost advantage allows them to be more competitive and flexible in its pricing strategies, which will be essential for driving future growth.

Expectations of Further Price Cuts Amid Economic Pressures

As the global economy faces various pressures, Tesla is expected to make additional price cuts to remain competitive. Levy pointed out that the US auto industry's pricing is coming down from all-time highs, and Tesla is subject to the same dynamics. Furthermore, Tesla's new facilities in Austin and Berlin will increase supply, potentially leading to further price reductions.

However, Levy also mentioned that there might be some margin offset due to additional fixed cost absorption and moderating raw material costs. This, combined with Tesla's cost advantage, should help the company navigate the economic pressures and continue its growth trajectory.

A Clear Lead in EV Profitability

Tesla's first-mover advantage has given it a clear lead in EV profitability, with a 17% Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) margin last year. Levy compared this to traditional automakers like Ford, which reported -40% EBIT margins on their EVs. This profitability gap demonstrates traditional automakers' challenges in transitioning to EVs and highlights Tesla's strong position in the market.

Tesla's strong Q1 delivery forecast, cost advantage, and a clear lead in EV profitability indicate a bright future for the company. Despite the potential impact of Elon Musk's persona, Tesla's focus on product quality and cost reduction should continue to drive growth and maintain its position as a leader in the EV market.

Tesla Q1 Update on Optimus, Batteries, and Tesla Energy

May 1, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

The 2025 Q1 Earnings Call gave us the opportunity to learn about a lot of things, from Unsupervised FSD, to the Robotaxi program, to the update on the more affordable model. There was a lot of news to unpack, but there’s still more.

In this article, we’ll cover Tesla’s updates on Optimus, batteries, and Tesla Energy.

Optimus

Tesla has been working away on their humanoid robot and continues to make progress in software and hardware.

First, Tesla is preparing the Fremont factory for the Optimus pilot production line, which is scheduled for completion later this year. Once it is, wider deployments of Optimus for internal use within Tesla’s facilities are expected as well. Tesla aims to have several thousand Optimus units working in its North American factories by the end of the year once the pilot production line is operational.

Tesla’s goals for production remain extremely lofty - 1 million units per year by 2030. However, they could face some challenges when ramping production.

Key components like the shoulder actuators use specialized permanent and rare-earth magnets, which are currently sourced from China. Due to recent Chinese restrictions on the overseas sale of these magnets, Tesla is seeking an exemption or alternative suppliers. They have not yet looked into modifying the shoulder actuator but will likely do so if they cannot obtain the necessary materials.

Batteries

Batteries are another item that Tesla’s teams have been working on behind the scenes for years now. The second generation of the 4680 - the Cybercell - has been IRA-compliant for some time now. This means that the Cybertruck is eligible for the US Federal EV rebate.

Tesla also achieved the lowest cost-per-kWh of any of its cells with the 4680 battery - and it is potentially one of the cheapest cells being manufactured by any vehicle battery manufacturer at this point. With dry-cathode still being worked on, Tesla may be able to squeeze more optimizations and cost efficiencies from the 4680 cells.

Additionally, Tesla is progressing with its plans for lithium refining and cathode production in the US, both of which are scheduled to commence in 2025. While the company says they’re no longer supply-constrained for non-LFP vehicle batteries, on-shoring production and sourcing critical minerals from nations outside of China will be key.

LFP batteries continue to be supply-constrained, namely for the Tesla Energy division. LFP batteries and their materials are sourced from China. Due to tariffs and limited exports, Tesla can’t obtain enough and is considering potentially building an LFP production facility in North America.

Energy

Tesla’s energy division is still experiencing some of the highest growth of any of its divisions. Year over year, Tesla saw a 154% increase in energy storage deployments, including both Megapack and Powerwall - for a total of 10.4 GWh deployed in just Q1 2025. While deliveries in energy storage remain volatile due to the nature of Megapack installations, Tesla expects growth to continue rapidly in this segment.

Tesla also deployed 1GWh of Powerwall 3 residential storage this quarter, marking its strongest quarter. Powerwall 3 has received positive feedback from customers, many of whom appreciate its new capabilities with its built-in inverter for solar.

Megapack is continuing to see demand increases, currently highlighted by utility-scale Megapack systems, as well as data centers requiring stable power delivery. Megafactory Shanghai is also online now and producing Megapacks - with an annual production capacity of 20GWh today and up to 40GWh in the future. The site has also produced over 100 Megapacks this quarter, which are all awaiting delivery.

There was a lot of interesting news from Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call, covering everything from FSD and Robotaxi - to the less glamorous but equally important Megapack and Powerwall.

Tesla Introduces AI-Powered Phone Support for Tesla Insurance, Reducing Wait Times and Cutting Costs

May 1, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

Tesla is heavily leaning into artificial intelligence, and its insurance offering is just another example of how it’s improving its product or lowering costs by leveraging AI.

Tesla recently started offering an insurance discount in select states when drivers use FSD for at least 50% of their drives and now it’s introducing an AI to help handle customer claims.

Tesla has developed an in-house voiced AI agent that can assist customers in handling simple support requests for Tesla Insurance.

Although Tesla Insurance is currently available in just 12 U.S. states, its voice AI assistant is accessible via phone across all supported states.

What the AI is Doing

For customers calling in from those states, the new AI agent provides a unique way to address the most common support calls. And it’s not just answering common questions but actually making requested changes to the owner’s account.

Policy Changes

The first key item is that it automates policy changes. Simple policy updates, including adjusting your deductible or coverage limits, are now done via AI. For policyholders who are simply looking to make quick changes and don’t have any questions, this makes the process a lot quicker by not having to wait for a representative. Tesla isn’t eliminating representatives, but this could reduce the number of representatives required or reduce wait times.

Continue Where You Left Off

The second item here, highlighted by Raj Jegannathan from Tesla’s internal IT team, is that Tesla’s AI agent is able to offer summaries of the user’s last interaction with Tesla Insurance. It will summarize your last interaction and provide assistance on that particular topic if you need to continue it. That means that you don’t have to wait for a human to review your file - the AI will kick off right where you left off.

Tesla appears to be focused on improving efficiency and making support more accessible. While actual items like claims are left up to humans due to their inherently complex nature, this helps free up employees to handle more complex items. While there’s no doubt Tesla will continue to develop this AI like they do everything else, we may soon see it take on even more tasks.

More AI

This isn’t the first AI agent that Tesla has demoed - there is now a chat-based AI sales agent available on the front page of Tesla’s website, which is able to answer common questions on Tesla vehicles.

Tesla has also been improving their AI support tool available in the Tesla App is able to provide feedback on common issues and also guide users towards either solving the problem or placing a support request.

Tesla has recently updated this AI to offer personalized support, allowing you to ask questions such as ‘What are my vehicle service alerts?’ or ‘Does my vehicle have a heat pump?’

Tesla’s strategy here is to influence the cost-heavy areas associated with having humans address simple requests and instead leverage AI, which can offer instant answers and reduce support costs.

Roll Out to More States

While this new AI is currently limited to just 12 states, it is likely to follow Tesla Insurance’s expansion. Insurance seems to have been at a bit of a standstill lately. Tesla continues to improve features such as the improvements to Safety Score V2.2, but we haven’t seen Tesla roll out support to new states since it added Minnesota in November of 2022.

Tesla may be looking to lower costs and refine the experience before it expands to additional states.