FSD Beta V11 will be Tesla's next major FSD update
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Elon Musk says Version 11 of Full Self Driving will be released in two weeks. Tesla’s CEO has promised the long-awaited FSD V11 a few times. Most observers were certain it would be part of the Holiday update, but here we are in the second week of 2023 without Version 11.
However, unprompted, Musk responded to a general tweet about Tesla and the stock price. Musk tweeted: Looks like V11.3 will be ready for wide release in about 2 weeks. Many major improvements.
Improved Highway Autopilot
This is the build that has been touted by the CEO as the big one for several months now. The big change in FSD Beta V11 will be the new highway Autopilot experience. Tesla is leveraging and adapting the neural nets they use for city driving to highway driving. Navigate on Autopilot hasn't seen many advances in the last few years, but that's expected to change with this update.
Highway driving is notably easier than city driving, but when Tesla finally merges the two tech stacks we should see several improvements to Navigate on Autopilot, including smoother lane changes, merges and better transitions when entering or exiting the highway.
FSD Beta V11.3 may also finally include Tesla's 'reverse creep' feature which has been talked about for some time. This will allow the vehicle to reverse and readjust or move out of dangerous situations.
The FSD V11 release notes were partially leaked in November. However, there are likely now even more improvements in V11.3. The notes for V11 stated:
Enabled FSD Beta on highway. This unifies the vision and planning stack on and off-highway and replaces the legacy highway stack, which is over four years old. The legacy highway stack still relies on several single-camera and single-frame networks, and was setup to handle simple lane-specific maneuvers. FSD Beta's multi-camera video networks and next-gen planner, that allows for more complex agent interactions with less reliance on lanes, make way for adding more intelligent behaviors, smoother control and better decision making.
Improved Occupancy Network's recall for close by obstacles and precision in severe weather conditions with a 4x increase in transformer spatial resolution, 20% increase in image featurizer capacity, improved side camera calibration, and 260k more video training clips (real-world and simulation).
It's Unknown Who Gets FSD Beta V11
It’s unclear who's getting FSD Beta V11 in two weeks. Will it include a wider range of employees, or will it go to the OG beta testers as well?
With the latest Tesla updates, it appears Tesla has finally merged FSD Beta software and production builds, meaning that FSD Beta is available to everyone in the U.S. and Canada. However, does that mean all FSD Beta users will get v11 right away? Likely not, as Tesla will probably want to roll it out slowly and release minor revisions before everyone has access to it.
What to Expect
Expectations are key. Whenever Elon Musk communicates a date, that is often the best-case scenario and delays are a real possibility.
We may see the first glimpse of FSD Beta V11 in two to three weeks, but it'll likely be in limited numbers.
We know that Tesla employees were testing V11 in November. At that time, it was believed that the program would soon roll out to a small group of public testers to get more input.
We don't know just how far into testing V11 has been. But for Musk, who has been busy with Tesla, Twitter, and SpaceX, to take the time to again give an update and a timeline for V11, the most advanced FSD yet must be coming soon. Right?
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Tesla's fourth quarter and 2022 earnings call with investors was mostly good news unless you were planning to drive a Cybertruck soon. While company executives eagerly jumped on every question asked by investors, there was a noticeable pause when a point-blank question was asked about Cybertruck's mid-year production date.
Elon Musk responded "um, we do expect production to start, I don't know, maybe sometime this summer. But I always like to try to downplay the start of production because the start of production is always very slow. It increases exponentially, but it's always very slow at first. So I wouldn't put too much thought in start of production."
Volume Production Next Year
If the millions of people with Cybertruck reservations were in attendance, you might have felt the air leave the room. The previous belief was mass production would start by the end of 2023. There may be some stainless-steel beauties on the road by then, but only a few. "It's kind of when does volume production actually happen, and that's next year," said Musk.
Perhaps sensing some disappointed buyers, Lars Moravy, Tesla's Vice President of Vehicle Engineering added, "(I'd) like just to emphasize on that, we've started installation of all the production equipment here in Giga Texas, castings, general assembly, body shops. We built all our beta vehicles, some more coming still in the next month, but as you said, the ramp will really come 2024."
The Cybertruck Will be Elon's Next Car
Cybertruck was originally announced in 2019 at the memorable event that included the unbreakable armor glass smashing. Musk was wearing the smashed glass Cybertruck t-shirt while taking questions from investors. While the wait continues, he is adamant that it will be worth it, "So it's an incredible product. I can't wait to drive it personally. It will be the car that I drive every day… it's just one of those products that only comes along once in a while, and it's really special."
The original release deadline was set for 2021. However, the production date has been delayed due to unforeseen circumstances, like a global pandemic. Nevertheless, it is a positive sign that beta vehicles have been produced. Images of what appears to be a Cybertruck were leaked a few months ago.
Recently, chief designer Franz von Holzhausen did confirm that the Cybertruck was ready for production, but it's a work in progress. Every Tesla beta product gets thoroughly examined and meticulously reviewed before the next step. But at least it's a step in the right direction.
Tesla set new records in production and deliveries while beating analyst expectations.
Tesla published their Q4 2022 and full-year financial results, setting new records in production and deliveries while beating analyst expectations. Tesla’s annual profit rose to $12.6 billion in 2022, from $5.5 billion in 2021. Annual revenue rose to $81.5 billion, from $53.8 billion the year prior. Tesla reported fourth-quarter revenue of $24.32 billion beating analysts' $24.07 billion estimate. The automaker also reported earnings per share of $1.19 beating analysts' $1.12 estimate.
Tesla’s stock rose more than 5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release and surged more than 10% the next day.
Tesla's Q4 2022 revenue set a new record for the company, up 59% from a year earlier. In addition to automotive revenue of $21.3 billion, Tesla recognized $324 million of deferred revenue from the company’s driver assistance systems.
FSD Beta Numbers
Tesla reported that 90 million miles have now been driven with FSD Beta, up from 58 million miles in the previous quarter. The company also confirmed that they have about 400,000 FSD Beta users in North America, a sizeable increase since the last report. With such a steep increase in miles driven and FSD Beta becoming widely available in North America, Tesla is making significant progress with its autonomous driving software.
In late 2022 and into this year, Tesla began cutting prices on its cars globally. Elon spoke about how recent price cuts have fueled a surge in demand for Tesla: “Thus far in January we’ve seen the strongest orders year-to-date than ever in our history. We’re currently seeing orders of almost twice the rate of production.” He added: “These price changes really make a difference for the average consumer.” Tesla acknowledges that average sales prices have to decrease over time because affordability is part of Tesla's mission to grow into a company that sells multiple millions of cars annually.
Price cuts will impact profitability, but margins should remain healthy, Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn affirmed. Tesla has wider operating margins than the industry average, which allows them to make such price cuts.
Elon issued an uncertain forecast for 2023, saying Tesla planned on 1.8 million vehicles for the year without specifying whether that was a target for production or deliveries. If the company were to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, that would result in 37% annual growth.
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