In 2006, Elon Musk released The Tesla Motors Master Plan. The first plan outlined how Tesla would build an expensive electric sports car, use that money to build a more affordable car, then use that money to build an even more affordable car. All while providing zero-emission electric power generation options. Tesla has since accomplished all of the above, producing millions of electric cars while rapidly bringing down production costs.
A decade later, in 2016, while the first plan was coming to fruition, Tesla released the Tesla Master Plan, Part Deux. In short, the plan would be to "Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage. Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments. Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning and enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it."
While this plan has yet to be fully realized, a third plan may indicate that the second plan is within reach. Tesla has made huge progress with its FSD beta program and Elon Musk recently doubled down that Tesla will release FSD later this year. The production of the CyberTruck and Semi is set to begin next year. As the second plan is coming together, Elon Musk tweeted that he’s working on Tesla's “Master Plan Part 3”
This tweet gives us a lot more insight into what Tesla is planning. It is now clear that a key part of the plan will be to “scale to extreme size to shift humanity away from fossil fuels.”
Tesla has put out a 20 million vehicle target by 2030. It sounds like a third plan will address how to achieve or even exceed this target. Despite Tesla's massive growth, the automaker currently accounts for just roughly 1% of the total vehicle market share. Scaling to “extreme size” is necessary to make a significant shift away from fossil fuels. The limiting factor to further scaling is the manufacturing of batteries. In particular, the real bottleneck is the mining of rare earth minerals (copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt etc.) required for battery production.
This is why Tesla’s Master Plan, Part 3 could be centered around rare earth mineral mining. So how does the Boring Company, AI and SpaceX play into mining? One theory is that the Boring Company could create the necessary tunnels and land environment to extract raw materials. The Tesla bot could be used to safely and ethically mine raw materials. SpaceX could use starships to rapidly and cost-effectively transport raw materials across long distances. If the battery limiting factor is conquered successfully, the company could begin to think about other uses for batteries including HVAC systems, pre-built homes, and more.
It’s also possible that Tesla’s Master Plan, Part 3 will involve Tesla’s transition to an Artificial Intelligence and data company. After all, Elon has repeatedly stated that Tesla will be thought of more as an artificial intelligence company than anything else. The company has been focused on solving real-world AI and more recently we had AI day, introducing the Optimus Humanoid Robot.
In the product roadmap update on the Q4 earnings call, Elon stated that "the most important product development is the Optimus Humanoid Robot” which he thinks "has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time. He explained that “labor is the foundation of the economy."
With no labor shortages, humanoid robots could revolutionize the world economy. They could also play a crucial role in scaling to extreme size and overcoming the limiting factor of battery manufacturing.
Here is a prediction of what the Master plan, Part 3 could include:
Develop the best AI training supercomputer to solve real-world problems that goes way beyond just self-driving
Remove battery manufacturing as the limiting factor to vehicle production by building millions of Tesla bots to eliminate the need for dangerous, boring, repetitive jobs (mining)
Synergize The Boring Company, Tesla and SpaceX to mine and transport raw materials on a massive scale
What do you think Tesla aims to accomplish in its third master plan? Let us know.
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Following customer requests, Tesla has once again returned FSD Transfers for North America. This comes after some new details we received on FSD Supervised and Unsupervised at the recent Q1 2025 Earnings Call.
Vox Populi, Vox Dei … FSD Transfer is back
All countries (in NA), all S3XY + @cybertruck (excl Foundation Series & Launch Series)
This latest round of FSD transfers doesn’t have a specific time limit - so if you’re in the market for a new vehicle and were worried about transferring FSD from a HW3 vehicle - now is the best chance.
This transfer opportunity is applicable for any new vehicle purchases, including the Model S, 3, X, Y, as well as the Cybertruck. The only vehicles it doesn’t apply to are the Foundation-Series Cybertruck or a Launch-Series Model Y, which already come with FSD included.
If you’re conducting an FSD transfer, you’ll need to reach out to your Tesla delivery coordinator through the Tesla app to confirm you’re eligible and to get the process started.
Note that once you take delivery, FSD access is removed from your older vehicle, regardless if you plan to trade in your vehicle or keep it.
Canada and Mexico
For those in Canada and Mexico, there’s some good news. This opportunity is available for customers in those countries as well, however, new vehicle orders are currently paused in Canada and Mexico for unknown reasons.
Running Offers
There are also several other offers running in North America, with the country flags indicating which countries their available in:
0% Financing on new Model 3 Orders (60mo, 0.99% for 72mo) 🇺🇸
Deep Blue Metallic and Pearl White are currently free on a new Model 3 Performance 🇺🇸
Original Model Y Owners are receiving $2,000 off the purchase of a Refreshed Model Y 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽
Free Supercharging on the Model S and Model X 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽
Free Supercharging on the Foundation-Series Cybertruck 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽
Tesla’s long-awaited ambitions for a fully autonomous Robotaxi network powered by the futuristic, control-less Cybercab have finally started to take shape.
During their Q1 2025 earnings call, Tesla shared new details about its Robotaxi network, including that the network will start with new Model Ys. The Cybercab will join the network in 2026.
Robotaxi Plans
Tesla confirmed during the Earnings Call that it is on track to conduct the pilot launch of its Robotaxi network in Austin in June 2025. The first vehicles deployed for this service won’t be Cybercabs, as production for those is still in the prototyping stage.
However, Tesla did outline part of their plan for the Robotaxi network rollout. The initial aim is to begin driverless operations in Austin and then expand the service to other cities within the United States by the end of 2025. Interestingly, Tesla is also testing in California - albeit with safety drivers at this time.
Not a Tesla App
Looking further ahead, there are ambitious plans to ramp up operations to have millions of vehicles operating autonomously within the network by the end of 2026. While substantial revenue generation won’t be immediate, Tesla anticipates that the Robotaxi network will start to “meaningfully move the financial needle” in the second half of 2026.
Tesla also highlighted the current real-world benefits that FSD is already offering today—and will be able to offer to many more people in the near future.
These include reducing effort and time spent on daily commuting or transit, as well as improving mobility for customers with disabilities. Tesla plans to emphasize some of these community stories and wants to highlight the advantages and capabilities of FSD to improve people’s lives.
Robotaxi App and Robotaxi Vehicle UI
Not a Tesla App
After the call, Tesla AI also shared a video showcasing the Robotaxi interface in the Tesla app, as well as some footage that included the in-vehicle UI, at least as it currently stands.
The video shows Tesla employees using and testing Robotaxi features, although there are safety drivers in place. It looks like there is already a set of well-integrated UI mechanisms for both the front and rear screen when in Robotaxi mode.
Tesla is testing this today, and this network has already completed 1,500 trips, totaling approximately 15,000 miles. The system is being tested for vehicle allocation, mission control, and remote assistance operations.
Remote Operators
Inevitably, edge cases or unique situations will come up, and they will be difficult to handle. For these cases, where a Robotaxi vehicle gets stuck or requires assistance, Tesla will likely implement remote support.
While they didn’t completely confirm remote support operators on the Earnings Call, Tesla has previously posted positions for Teleoperator Engineers for Robotaxi, and an AI T=team member posted on LinkedIn about testing for remote assistance operations.
Scaling Up
Tesla initially intends to deploy a relatively small fleet in Austin, with its pilot beginning with about 10 to 20 vehicles on day 1. They will scale up gradually as the systems are validated and operations are refined, and the target is for anyone visiting Austin to be able to hail a robotaxi by the end of June or early July 2025.
Scaling Out
Not a Tesla App
Tesla’s confidence in scaling out stems from its generalized approach with FSD. The team believes that once FSD is thoroughly verified and capable in a few diverse North American cities, deploying it to any other North American city should be technically feasible. After all, driving regulations don’t vary much from one major city to another, except for things like no right turns on red lights.
The primary limitation with scaling out geographically is expected to be securing regulatory approvals in different regions and jurisdictions. While the principles of Tesla’s FSD are expected to apply globally, as with the China rollout, regulation will continue to be a considerable hurdle.
Cybercab
FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San Francisco Bay Area.
We've completed over 1.5k trips & 15k miles of driving.
This service helps us develop & validate FSD networks, the mobile app, vehicle allocation, mission control &… pic.twitter.com/pYVfhi935W
Tesla’s fully autonomous, two-seater vehicle, the Cybercab, is also being developed. While volume production for the Cybercab won’t begin until 2026, Tesla is already undergoing sample production validation. The first actual Cybercab builds are expected to be completed near the end of Q2 2025, and we’re excited to see if anything changes from the prototypes shown at We, Robot.
Tesla intends to build Cybercab at Giga Texas, and the production line is on schedule, according to Tesla. Cybercab production will not require a new building and will be built inside the existing Giga Texas factory.
Unboxed Method
Tesla's Shareholder Deck for Q1 2025 is now out, and we're 40 minutes away from the Earnings Call.
It seems Tesla won't be using the unboxed process for its more affordable model - which is a new vehicle.
The Cybercab’s production and low-cost methodology heavily rely upon Tesla’s innovative new unboxed manufacturing method. Tesla’s executive team mentioned that progress and implementation with this new manufacturing solution was going well, and it will be key to lowering the cost of production while considerably raising the level of automation.
Tesla has already achieved key milestones with this method, including successfully integrating large sub-assemblies and resolving challenges related to connecting portions of the vehicle's ceiling during the process. They have also successfully completed corrosion testing related to the new assembly method, as well as begun initial crash testing for the Cybercab.
All of that and more will eventually be incorporated into other vehicle production lines, and the Cybertruck is already benefiting from some aspects of these developments. With a final ambition of achieving a 5-second cycle time per Cybercab, Tesla has come a long way—but it still has quite a bit to go. They’ve managed to meet a 33-second cycle time for the Model Y at Giga Shanghai between two production lines, but 5 seconds per vehicle is quite ambitious.
Not a Tesla App
With all that said, between Robotaxi and Cybercab, there is a lot of interesting news coming from Tesla. We expect this to continue throughout the year as Tesla launches its network and then aims to release FSD Unsupervised to customers, with a potential price increase.
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