As Tesla pushes the boundaries of autonomous driving with each iterative FSD update, the hardware that powers every vehicle also needs to continue evolving. With FSD V13 already pushing the capabilities of today’s AI4 hardware, Tesla is actively looking to update its FSD hardware.
Korean news outlet MK (Korean) has provided what seems to be a credible glimpse into Tesla’s next hardware iteration, AI5, and what it could be capable of. MK’s report claims that Tesla is preparing for the production of its new AI5 FSD computer with a performance target of 2,000 to 2,500 TOPS (Trillion Operations Per Second). According to the report, Tesla is considering using Samsung and TSMC to manufacture the hardware.
Putting the Compute Power into Perspective
To grasp what exactly that 2,500 TOPS number means, let’s compare it to Nvidia’s recently released gaming GPUs, the RTX 5080 and the RTX 5090 (about $1,500 and $3,000 GPUs, respectively). The 5080 clocks in at 1,800 TOPS, while the 5090 pushes a powerful 3,400 TOPS. Those also come alongside power draws of 360 and 575 watts, respectively.
For a dedicated automotive AI chip to be able to place itself squarely in the middle of those performance numbers is quite a feat, especially given Tesla’s previous hardware. HW3 clocked in at a measly 144 TOPS, while HW4/AI4, the current generation, pulls in at around 500 TOPS, a solid 3- 5x leap over HW3.
During a past earnings call, Elon claimed AI5 could be as much as 10 times more capable than HW4, which would imply an astronomical 5,000 TOPS. The 2,000 to 2,500 TOPS figure from this new report, however, represents a 4- to 5-fold generational jump, which feels more grounded and aligned with recent performance improvements elsewhere.
What is a “TOPS”?
TOPS is essentially a raw measure of processing power for a specific type of math, one related to the math used by neural networks. For an AI like FSD, it's the single most important metric. Think of it like the AI’s IQ - more TOPS means the computer can think faster and process more information, letting it better understand the environment around the vehicle and make smarter decisions.
True Performance or Skewed?
The key to understanding Elon’s claims about the TOPS figures lies in specialization. Tesla’s FSD computer is what is known as an ASIC - an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit. Unlike a general-purpose GPU in a gaming PC, Tesla’s AI hardware is designed from the ground up for one singular purpose: running the specific types of neural networks that FSD relies on.
This focus allows for incredible efficiency and performance in its designated tasks, and Tesla likely measures performance internally against AI inference benchmarks built around FSD.
The rumor that Tesla is tapping both Samsung and TSMC is pretty significant here as well. Tesla has previously sourced its chips from Samsung but likely requires additional capacity from TSMC, the world’s largest chip fabricator. A multi-source structure like this means Tesla is already putting the pieces together to mitigate supply chain risks.
AI Powerhouse
The need for AI5’s immense power isn’t just about running the current version of FSD, but about being able to support future versions of FSD that may require more computing power. Tesla continues to increase the size of thei AI models, which means that they’ll require more memory. One of the challenges in autonomy is that decisions must be made in just fractions of a second so that the vehicle can react accordingly. If output wasn’t required in nearly real-time, the vehicle could analyze video frames for a longer period and come up with better output, but the need for output in a timely fashion makes computing power critical.
Tesla’s executive team has repeatedly mentioned that the path towards fully Unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi lies in massive computational power alongside redundancy. The system will need to run increasingly complex neural networks to handle edge cases with greater reliability and start the march of 9s (improving from 99% to 99.9% to 99.99%, and so on). Layers of redundancy and multiple checks during the decision-making process will also be required for safety, which also requires additional compute.
What About HW3 and AI4?
With all this talk of AI5, the immediate question for every current Tesla owner and short-term buyer is: “What about MY car?”
AI4 is currently Tesla’s gold standard, and what they’re building today’s FSD, including FSD Unsupervised, around. For now, it offers Tesla enough headroom to continue expanding the neural nets and pushing new builds, but eventually, it too will one day need an upgrade.
Tesla has already stated that AI5 and AI6 will progressively improve FSD and become safer, but that doesn’t mean previous vehicles will be upgraded. Vehicles will only be upgraded if they’re not able to run Unsupervised FSD at a rate that’s safer than humans. Newer models will always perform better and at higher safety levels, but that doesn’t mean older hardware won’t be capable of safe driving.
The real story here is HW3. While Tesla’s executives have previously said that Hardware 3 is “Robotaxi Ready,” the practical reality of FSD V12.6 and V13.2 has set in for many. With FSD V13 pushing the envelope today, and Tesla’s intent to upgrade HW3 vehicles if they can’t figure out a solution, it seems the end of the line is coming.
For owners of HW3 vehicles, this likely means Tesla is planning a retrofit based around AI5 - likely a lower-performance version that will fit the current HW3 power and cooling packages. There could be a similar solution in the future for AI4 vehicles if Tesla plans to address the other half of the fleet, but that’s likely years away and only if they’re not able to achieve autonomy on that hardware.
The neural nets required for FSD to drive itself without supervision in complex urban environments will be orders of magnitude more complex than what we see today in just a few years. AI5 isn't just an upgrade; it's the necessary hardware to advance FSD to the next level.
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In the race to deploy autonomous vehicles, there have been two schools of thought. One is led by sensor fusion, which means the more sensors and the more types, the better. The other is Tesla’s school of thought — vision.
So far, even Google’s CEO, Sundar Pichai, has described Tesla as the leader in the autonomy sector.
Google CEO on who is the leader in self-driving space: "I think obviously @Tesla is a leader in the space. It looks to me like Tesla and Waymo are the top two." pic.twitter.com/T0hlSICm8V
A new analysis from Bloomberg (paywall) offers a similar perspective, focusing on the numbers and real-world safety metrics. Tesla’s strategy isn’t just viable - it is far outpacing its competitors.
A Tale of Crash Rates
The most striking numbers from Bloomberg’s analysis are safety-related. According to their comparison, FSD reports approximately 0.15 crashes per million miles driven. In contrast, Waymo reported approximately 1.16 crashes per million miles.
That means that a Tesla using FSD is seven times less likely to be involved in a crash than a Waymo vehicle, even with its bevy of sensors. This is in line with Tesla’s latest vehicle safety report, which notes that a Tesla using FSD is 10 times less likely to be involved in an accident than a driver in any other vehicle.
Crash rates compared
Bloomberg
When it comes down to it, sensor fusion, while it can be fantastic, it simply provides too much data to process and analyze. While LiDAR, radar and cameras all have their unique advantages, cameras end up being the most versatile. Our roads and world were created around vision and audio, so a LiDAR-only vehicle can’t navigate our roadways since it would be unable to see signs or any other object that lacks depth. For LiDAR to be useful, it needs to be coupled with vision.
Vision works well because it applies to all situations, and it’s a system that continues to improve thanks to advancements in image processing and AI. While measurements with vision still lag behind LiDAR, they’ve reached a point where they’d “good enough,” and the millimeter-level accuracy of LiDAR isn’t needed.
When radar and vision disagree, which one do you believe? Vision has much more precision, so better to double down on vision than do sensor fusion.
Besides the difficulty of using sensor fusion, Bloomberg also points out that Tesla’s advantage is in the fundamental cost of the hardware. The Model Y costs just 1/7th of the total cost of a Waymo vehicle.
This enormous cost difference is a direct result of how Tesla and Waymo are approaching autonomy. Waymo’s vehicles are high-end, third-party electric cars, like the now-discontinued Jaguar I-Pace, which are then retrofitted with an expensive, custom-built suite of sensors. This sensor suite includes multiple LIDAR units, radars, and cameras.
Tesla’s ability to scale autonomous driving faster than its rivals gives it an edge in the self-driving race, says Bloomberg Intelligence's Steve Man https://t.co/B1x5Jhx6Lfpic.twitter.com/XYPCblWmXn
Tesla, meanwhile, includes all the hardware for autonomy as standard equipment on each of their vehicles, with a relatively inexpensive suite of cameras and its own in-house designed FSD computer. Using affordable hardware means it’s easy to produce and field more vehicles, resulting in more data.
On top of that, building more vehicles at a lower price creates a larger and larger economic difference as time goes on, as Tesla’s Robotaxis become profitable far quicker than Waymo’s.
3 Billion Miles… and Counting
The biggest advantage that Tesla has over any other entrant into the autonomy ring is simply just data. Tesla’s fleet has gathered over 3 billion miles of driving data globally, whereas Waymo’s fleet is just a minuscule 22 million miles.
Putting that into perspective, for every mile driven by a Waymo vehicle, a Tesla has driven over 135. Tesla’s advantage is also the fact that its data is global. It includes vehicles operating in a range of environments, from deserts to the Arctic, from cities to extremely rural areas, and is capable of achieving generalized autonomy.
Waymo’s data is extremely focused on urban and suburban areas and is effectively unusable for generalized vehicle autonomy. A larger, more capable fleet is the key to providing an effective robotaxi service, after all.
Scaling Manufacturing
Finally, Waymo doesn't produce vehicles. Tesla produces Robotaxis from scratch - every vehicle off the line has the ability to run Unsupervised FSD, and eventually join the Robotaxi fleet. Waymo needs to partner with other companies that have a good platform, and they must adapt their technology to that platform.
Waymo’s fleet is expected to be 2,500 vehicles by the end of 2025, while Bloomberg expects Tesla’s functional fleet to hit 35,000 by the same time. That’s not even counting the millions of AI4-powered vehicles that could also join the fleet by late 2026.
Overall, Tesla is a clear winner in the Robotaxi race - and it isn’t just because of one element. They’re winning through data, cost, and scalability, and the gap will only continue to grow.
For several months, we’ve been hearing rumors that Tesla is developing a new variant of the Model Y, one equipped with six seats rather than the five or seven we’re accustomed to seeing. Many people have been holding out for exactly such a variant, one that’s big enough to hold larger families without being as tight on legroom as the seven-seat variant.
Now, thanks to confirmation from Tesla hacker @greentheonly, we now have the strongest evidence yet that Tesla is making a six-seat variant, likely in a unique configuration, as he found in the latest batch of vehicle firmware.
Green found references to the six-seater Model Y in the 2025.20 update, validating the rumors we’ve heard. Given that the references are showing up in production software, Tesla may now be actively testing the vehicle. The next place to watch will be code in the Tesla app, which should hopefully provide us with some previews of the seat layout.
Captain’s Chairs
So, what would a six-seat Model Y actually look like? Well, the configuration all but guarantees a 2x2x2 seat layout. That configuration would replace the traditional second-row bench seat with two more spacious captain’s chairs, which will have an aisle between them. That’s a big bump in comfort for second-row passengers, who would have seats more similar to the ones up front. Tesla didn’t include armrests on the six-seat Model X, so it’s likely the Model Y won’t have them either.
For the Model X, the seven-seat configuration is a $3,500 bump in price, while the six-seater costs an additional $6,500, so expect the Model Y to have a similar price structure.
We can also expect Tesla to add some convenience features into this package, similar to the power-reclining seats introduced in the new Model Y, which can automatically fold and unfold with the tap of a button. In a six-seat Model Y, the middle seats would likely be able to automatically move forward and backward, while the rear two seats would be the folding ones.
Front seats learned some manners
If rear row needs more space to fold flat, front seats in new Model Y will automatically adjust pic.twitter.com/O8ik9QuPwA
However, most importantly, this 2x2x2 layout creates a center aisle. This provides easier access to the third row, eliminating the need to fold down the center bench seat to get in and out of the vehicle. That’s a big improvement for families who use the third-row regularly.
Confirming Rumors
This firmware update actually confirms rumors we heard back in December 2024. China’s Latepost and Reuters had already indicated that a six-seat variant was in the works back then, but many agreed that the variant would be an exclusive option for the Chinese market. That particular market prefers having spacious second-row seating, and the six-seater just makes sense there, given the offerings of other manufacturers.
Now, with Green’s assessment that a global release is more likely helps to confirm those reports, while also providing some hope for customers in North America and Europe who have been holding out.
Utility vs Comfort
The plot thickens when we look at the fact that Tesla just teased another recent development - the Model Y seven-seat variant. Some customers in North America and Europe received emails teasing the return of the seven-seat Model Y.
But why would Tesla release both? Likely for similar reasons that they have a six-seat and seven-seat Model X. The answer is that some will value the utility of the seven-seat option, while others will value the comfort and premium feeling of the six-seat option.
By offering both, Tesla gives its customers a bit more customization and preference, especially those who often have to look outside the brand for larger family vehicles.
Longer Wheelbase
While the firmware finding confirms the seating configuration, there have also been some rumors from Chinese bloggers about the possibility of a longer wheelbase, known as version E80. If this proves to be true, the six-seater would be more than just a new interior layout; it would be a fundamentally larger vehicle. Recent rumors suggest the vehicle may have a wheelbase that’s 5.9” longer than the regular Model Y, which would significantly increase the legroom available in the third row. While the third row may have ample legroom in this longer wheelbase, it would likely still be limited for smaller individuals due to the available headroom.
The Tesla Model X is Tesla’s only current offering for larger families, but it costs significantly more than the Model Y. A six or seven-seater Model Y could help open up a whole new category for Tesla.
Price
We expect that Tesla will likely price the seven-seat variant for an additional $2,000 USD ($3,000 CAD), and the six-seat variant for an additional $4,000 USD ($5,000 CAD) in the North American market, based on the pricing of the old seven-seat variant and the Model X’s six-seat premium configuration.
Below is a video of the seven-seater Model Y:
What Next?
The addition of the six-seat Model Y to Tesla’s public software that’s being delivered to vehicles today practically confirms that Tesla is looking to release a six-seat version of the Model Y. While the longer wheelbase remains speculative, we could expect Tesla to unveil a six-seat variant in the coming months. Alongside the seven-seat variant, customers shopping for a larger vehicle will have some additional choices soon.
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