Elon Musk said back in December 2020 that a FSD subscription would be made available next year. He has recently said that it’s coming this month and that it won’t be tied to the wider release of the FSD v9 beta which is expected in May or June. You can probably guess why these two features have similar timelines as Tesla expects FSD v9 to help sell the FSD subscriptions. The new FSD v9 release is also expected to have brand new vector-space visualizations.
We’re now in May and the FSD subscription should be falling upon us any day now. In our initial reporting of the FSD subscription, we talked about why it was smart for Tesla to also offer a FSD subscription in addition to a one-time purchase package. You can read more about those reasons here, but they mostly have to do with the hefty price tag of $10,000, which is a tough pill to swallow for most and also that there are some instances where buying the FSD package outright doesn't make sense, for example if you’re leasing your car.
Here’s what to expect in Tesla’s announcement
The average new car length ownership in the US is 8.4 years. The FSD package currently costs $10,000 USD. So if you take the cost of the package and divide it by the length of car ownership, you get a price of $99/month.
Now, there are probably a few reasons why Tesla wouldn’t want to create a $99/month FSD option, even though it’s a very attractive price.
First, if Tesla were to release a $99/month option, they’d be sure to annoy a whole lot of loyal supporters who spent $10,000 up front when they bought their cars and only had a fraction of the FSD features available.
Secondly, Tesla would much rather you buy the FSD package up front instead of paying for it monthly. By doing that, not only do they have $10k to invest into resources right away, but they also essentially got you to commit to pay for FSD every month for 8-plus years.
So what is a good price? $149 seems plausible. For drivers who have leased their cars for three-years then it’d be a total cost of about $5,300 over the course of the three-years instead of their only other alternative right now, which is the full $10,000 package. This may tip the boat in Tesla’s favor for many.
You can certainly bet that Tesla is closely analyzing the percentage of buyers who currently buy the FSD package today and how many of those buyers they would lose if they were to offer a monthly subscription. The answer to that question lies in whether they would make more through FSD subscriptions than what they’d lose in upfront payments.
If we look at the possibility of a $199/month subscription then we’re looking at someone paying $7,200 over three-years, which seems just way too close to the full price of $10,000 to make sense. That’d be paying over $20k over that 8 year period.
Now, if Tesla were a traditional company, I would feel pretty comfortable with expecting a $149/month FSD subscription becoming available this month. But if there’s one thing that Tesla has taught us over the years, is that there is always a price early adopters pay.
The price of Tesla’s cars has dropped dramatically in some cases. Some folks paid more for an AWD Model 3 then what the Performance model ended up costing later on. Elon Musk has often commented on this; saying that technology gets cheaper and early adopters are often helping pave the road for the future.
Whether Tesla releases a $99/month or $199/month FSD subscription completely depends on how many buyers are buying the FSD package today. I have a feeling it’s rather low or Tesla wouldn’t be considering a monthly subscription in the first place.
As a reader has pointed out, it's possible that Tesla may require a minimum commitment in order to subscribe to FSD at $99/month. This could be used to prevent owners from only subscribing during roadtrips. It could also help offset the costs of any hardware needed to allow FSD, such as upgrading the car's Autopilot hardware from 2.5 to 3.0. Elon Musk has already said that the FSD subscription would cover any hardware needed. A minimum commitment could be one or two-years.
A FSD subscription has the advantage that it is not tied to a particular vehicle, you could subscribe to it in one vehicle, then switch it to another a year or two later. That may be the biggest issue early adopters will have who paid full price for FSD at $7,000 or $10,000. Tesla may allow a one-time transfer of the FSD license for these owners as this has become a popular topic that has yet to be addressed by Elon. It's also possible that Tesla may limit FSD subscriptions to personal use and they would not be able to be used for robotaxis in the future.
We expect Tesla to announce a FSD subscription as low as $99, or as high as $149, in the US very soon.
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In a new video posted to X, Tesla is showing the progress of its first Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) cell manufacturing factory in North America. The facility, located in Sparks, Nevada, will be used to produce LFP battery cells for Megapacks and Powerwall.
However, the implications of this new factory extend beyond Tesla Energy. By on-shoring the production of these cost-effective batteries, Tesla is not only securing its energy supply chain but also opening the door to potentially reintroducing LFP-based vehicles in North America.
Nearing completion of our first LFP cell manufacturing factory in North America pic.twitter.com/OLNRWajz4l
The immediate beneficiary of the new Nevada LFP facility is Tesla’s Energy division. LFP chemistry is ideal for stationary storage products like Megapack and Powerwall. It offers a very long life cycle, is extremely thermally stable and safe, and is significantly cheaper to produce than nickel-based batteries, partly because it contains no cobalt.
Until now, Tesla has relied on suppliers like CATL in China for these cells. A dedicated, domestic supply will enable Tesla to dramatically ramp up Megapack production to meet North America’s increasing demand for grid-scale energy. On the other hand, Megafactory Shanghai continues to utilize CATL’s LFP batteries and will support the rest of the world.
Tesla first revealed that they were planning to onshore LFP production in North America at the Q1 2025 Earnings Call, which will help them avoid costs, innovate in new technology, and insulate themselves from geopolitical supply chain risks.
A Potential Return for LFP Vehicles?
Another exciting application for Tesla is what this new factory means for Tesla’s budget-oriented lineup. For years, Tesla has been constrained in its ability to offer LFP-based vehicles in North America. While LFP packs are used in other markets for specific standard-range RWD vehicles, tariffs on important Chinese cells made it difficult to import these cells for use in North America.
With a domestic supply of LFP cells produced in Nevada, this tariff-related barrier will be mostly eliminated, pending the sourcing of lithium from a North American site. This is likely to lead to the reintroduction of LFP-based vehicles to the North American market, possibly in late 2026 or 2027.
An American-made LFP pack could lead to a more affordable base Model 3 or Model Y, or potentially help Tesla cut costs on the next-generation Affordable Model even further. This helps to give customers a lower-cost entry point without sacrificing a lot of range, and with the added benefit of being able to regularly charge to 100%.
Mega Nevada
With Mega Nevada now progressing well, Tesla is in an excellent position to continue iterating on its vertical integration and scaling Megapack and Powerwall—two of Tesla’s fastest-growing businesses—further. There are tons of benefits for consumers in the future as Tesla continues down this path, with more affordable Powerwalls for the home, cheaper electricity prices thanks to grid-forming Megapacks, and cheaper LFP vehicles.
The next major upgrade for Tesla’s in-car experience is pretty much already here - just hiding beneath the surface, awaiting the flick of a switch. According to new details uncovered by Tesla hacker Greentheonly, a fully functional version of the Grok conversational AI assistant is already present in recent firmware builds, just waiting for Tesla to activate it.
The feature, which is currently behind a server-side switch, could be enabled at any time by Tesla for vehicles running update 2025.20 and newer. The findings provide a better picture of what we already learned from Green’s breakdown on Grok last month.
Grok’s Requirements
@greentheonly on X
According to what Green determined from the latest software builds, the foundation for Grok was laid with update 2025.14, with more abilities and functionality added in 2025.20 to flesh it out. He also determined exactly which vehicles will be receiving Grok.
In terms of hardware, any vehicle with a Ryzen-based infotainment computer will receive Grok. This means that vehicles with the older Intel Atom processor will not be supported, at least initially. The underlying Autopilot hardware is not a factor, as Grok’s processing is not done in-vehicle.
Grok will also require premium connectivity or a Wi-Fi connection for the vehicle. At this point, we’re not sure whether Grok in your Tesla will also require you to sign up for SuperGrok, X Premium, or X Premium+, but Tesla is requiring you to sign into your Grok account. It’s just not clear whether the free version of Grok will work, or if you’ll need the premium version.
Grok User Experience
@greentheonly on X
Green also revealed the user interface for Grok for the first time. You’ll find many of the same features from the Grok app, but surprisingly, it looks like it’ll have a dark UI, even if you’re using light mode in your vehicle.
It appears that there will be a Grok app, likely for settings. However, Grok will largely operate in a modal, similar to voice commands, which are displayed near the bottom left corner of the screen.
There’s an on-screen microphone button, as well as drop-down menus for the voice and type of assistant you’d like to use.
Similar to the Grok app currently on mobile devices, you’ll be able to select from a set of voices and then define their personality. The available voices for now are the standard Ara (Upbeat Female), Rex (Calm Male), and Gork (Lazy Male).
There’s also a settings button, which, when expanded, allows you to enable or disable NSFW mode (including swearing and adult topics), as well as a Kids Mode, which will tone Grok down to be suitable for when kids are in the car.
@greentheonly on X
How Grok Will Work (Button / Wake Word)
Users will be able to activate Grok by pressing a button, likely the same one that activates voice commands today. Grok will then remain enabled for the duration of your conversation, allowing you to go back and forth, asking and answering questions. To end your conversation, you’ll press the mic button again.
While it doesn’t appear to use a wake word yet, Green says that some code refers to a wake word, so it’s possible that this could be an option Tesla plans to activate in the future.
Replacing Voice Commands
The most significant implication of Grok’s future integration is in its potential to fully replace the existing and relatively rigid voice command system. Green notes that internally, this feature is part of the car assist module, and that eventually, the plan is for Grok to take over car control functions.
Unlike the current system, which requires specific phrases, a true conversational AI like Grok can understand natural language. This will enable more intuitive requests, completely changing how drivers interact with their car.
Language Support
@Greentheonly/X
Grok will also launch with multi-language support, similar to its current abilities in the Grok app. Green says that it already appears to have support for English and Chinese and one or two other languages.
Release Date
Grok appears ready to go from a vehicle standpoint, but Green wasn’t able to actually test it out. While development appears to be nearly complete in the vehicle, Tesla and xAI may still be working on some server-side changes to better integrate with the vehicle. If they plan for Grok to replace voice commands on day one, then it’ll need to be trained and be able to execute a variety of vehicle commands.
It’s possible Tesla is actively testing Grok or adding server-side changes to replace voice commands. However, it looks like vehicle development is nearly complete and Grok could launch as soon as the next major Tesla update, which is expected to be update 2025.24.
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