Tesla FSD Subscription: Price and Release Date Expectations

Elon Musk said back in December 2020 that a FSD subscription would be made available next year. He has recently said that it’s coming this month and that it won’t be tied to the wider release of the FSD v9 beta which is expected in May or June. You can probably guess why these two features have similar timelines as Tesla expects FSD v9 to help sell the FSD subscriptions. The new FSD v9 release is also expected to have brand new vector-space visualizations.

We’re now in May and the FSD subscription should be falling upon us any day now. In our initial reporting of the FSD subscription, we talked about why it was smart for Tesla to also offer a FSD subscription in addition to a one-time purchase package. You can read more about those reasons here, but they mostly have to do with the hefty price tag of $10,000, which is a tough pill to swallow for most and also that there are some instances where buying the FSD package outright doesn't make sense, for example if you’re leasing your car.

Here’s what to expect in Tesla’s announcement

The average new car length ownership in the US is 8.4 years. The FSD package currently costs $10,000 USD. So if you take the cost of the package and divide it by the length of car ownership, you get a price of $99/month.

Now, there are probably a few reasons why Tesla wouldn’t want to create a $99/month FSD option, even though it’s a very attractive price.

First, if Tesla were to release a $99/month option, they’d be sure to annoy a whole lot of loyal supporters who spent $10,000 up front when they bought their cars and only had a fraction of the FSD features available. Secondly, Tesla would much rather you buy the FSD package up front instead of paying for it monthly. By doing that, not only do they have $10k to invest into resources right away, but they also essentially got you to commit to pay for FSD every month for 8-plus years.

So what is a good price? $149 seems plausible. For drivers who have leased their cars for three-years then it’d be a total cost of about $5,300 over the course of the three-years instead of their only other alternative right now, which is the full $10,000 package. This may tip the boat in Tesla’s favor for many.

You can certainly bet that Tesla is closely analyzing the percentage of buyers who currently buy the FSD package today and how many of those buyers they would lose if they were to offer a monthly subscription. The answer to that question lies in whether they would make more through FSD subscriptions than what they’d lose in upfront payments.

If we look at the possibility of a $199/month subscription then we’re looking at someone paying $7,200 over three-years, which seems just way too close to the full price of $10,000 to make sense. That’d be paying over $20k over that 8 year period.

Now, if Tesla were a traditional company, I would feel pretty comfortable with expecting a $149/month FSD subscription becoming available this month. But if there’s one thing that Tesla has taught us over the years, is that there is always a price early adopters pay.

The price of Tesla’s cars has dropped dramatically in some cases. Some folks paid more for an AWD Model 3 then what the Performance model ended up costing later on. Elon Musk has often commented on this; saying that technology gets cheaper and early adopters are often helping pave the road for the future.

Whether Tesla releases a $99/month or $199/month FSD subscription completely depends on how many buyers are buying the FSD package today. I have a feeling it’s rather low or Tesla wouldn’t be considering a monthly subscription in the first place.

As a reader has pointed out, it's possible that Tesla may require a minimum commitment in order to subscribe to FSD at $99/month. This could be used to prevent owners from only subscribing during roadtrips. It could also help offset the costs of any hardware needed to allow FSD, such as upgrading the car's Autopilot hardware from 2.5 to 3.0. Elon Musk has already said that the FSD subscription would cover any hardware needed. A minimum commitment could be one or two-years.

A FSD subscription has the advantage that it is not tied to a particular vehicle, you could subscribe to it in one vehicle, then switch it to another a year or two later. That may be the biggest issue early adopters will have who paid full price for FSD at $7,000 or $10,000. Tesla may allow a one-time transfer of the FSD license for these owners as this has become a popular topic that has yet to be addressed by Elon. It's also possible that Tesla may limit FSD subscriptions to personal use and they would not be able to be used for robotaxis in the future.

We expect Tesla to announce a FSD subscription as low as $99, or as high as $149, in the US very soon.

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NHTSA Probes Tesla’s Robotaxi Plans; Seeks Answers on FSD in Poor Weather

Not a Tesla App

As anticipation builds for Tesla’s Robotaxi network debut in Austin, potentially just a few short weeks away, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is turning its official eye onto Tesla. The ask? How will Tesla’s FSD handle the unpredictable realities of challenging weather?

The NHTSA Request

The NHTSA has sent a formal letter to Tesla, which was made public on May 12th, requesting detailed information about Tesla’s Robotaxi service. The NHTSA inquiry centers specifically on the safety and performance of FSD when faced with reduced visibility conditions like rain, fog, and sun glare. The request is tied to an ongoing NHTSA investigation, which was initiated in October 2023, examining Tesla’s FSD and Autopilot suite following incidents in poor visibility.

Tesla’s executives, including Elon Musk, have previously stated that the company is full steam ahead to launch Robotaxi in Austin this June. However, NHTSA’s pointed questions come even as Tesla has recently discussed its plans to work on region-specific and weather-specific FSD training.

Tesla’s executive leadership acknowledged the need to adapt the system to diverse environmental and weather conditions. Now, regulators want specifics on how Tesla intends to address environmental conditions and how that translates to operational safety for the fleet.

Request Breakdown

NHTSA’s letter outlines a need for detailed information from Tesla before the service launches and covers several key areas. We’ve broken this down into various sections below:

Deployment Scale

NHTSA is looking for the exact number of vehicles and models that will be part of the initial Austin fleet, and what the projected service availability times would be for said fleet. Tesla has previously said it’d launch with 10-20 Model Ys, but looks like NHTSA is looking for additional details.

Oversight

In terms of oversight, NHTSA is looking to confirm whether the Robotaxis will operate under real-time supervision of Tesla’s employees, either remotely or in-vehicle.

This is a question on our minds as well. A recent app update suggested that Tesla could have a driver in the vehicle, but it wasn’t clear whether this was referring to Tesla’s own fleet or customer-owned vehicles. The only thing we have heard officially from Tesla is that Tesla “may” use remote support, but that they were still looking into it.

Adverse Weather Capabilities

This is the meat and potatoes of the request - how will Tesla ensure safety during sun glare, fog, heavy rain, snow, or dust? What specific protocols are triggered if poor visibility is encountered mid-trip? Will the vehicle pull over or call home and cancel rides?

Sensor Technology

Surprisingly, NHTSA is looking for details regarding the vehicle the Robotaxi sensor suites and how Tesla intends to use those sensors to ensure safe operation under varied conditions. NHTSA has had previous submissions from Tesla in regard to its sensor suite and how it uses the technology, so it feels odd that they are requesting another batch - but this could be related to the use of the next generation of FSD (Unsupervised).

Compliance

Does Tesla’s FSD system adhere, either fully or partially, to established industry standards for autonomous driving? This likely refers to the NHTSA Automated Vehicles for Safety guidebook, which lays out the “L0 to L5” driver assistance vs automation system.

Future Expansion

Finally, NHTSA is looking for the timeline for enabling Robotaxi functionality on vehicles not directly owned or controlled by Tesla. Tesla has already come out and said that customer-owned vehicles wouldn’t be allowed on the robotaxi network until 2026, but obviously, NHTSA wants to hear directly from Tesla and likely has more specific questions covering a wide variety of potential issues.

These questions will likely have to be answered with considerable amounts of data and justification for the NHTSA. Once all that is done, Tesla will be in a better position to receive regulatory approval at a larger scale than just within the city of Austin or the state of Texa with the NHTSA’s backing.

Successfully addressing this letter will be the key for Unsupervised FSD moving forward, but Tesla hasn’t issued a public response to the agency’s letter, and likely won’t in a public manner. So we’ll have to wait and see how the launch of the Robotaxi network pans out next month.

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FSD V13.2.9 Rolls Out for HW4 as Part of Tesla’s 2025.14.6 Update

Not a Tesla App

After an 84-day wait since the last FSD update, Tesla has finally begun rolling out a new version of FSD V13 to its AI4-equipped vehicles. This new release, V13.2.9, is rolling out to all vehicles, including the Cybertruck.

Unfortunately, since it’s a minor point release (from V13.2.8), the release notes are the same, and Tesla hasn’t included a change log or changed what’s coming in the future.

Software Update 2025.14.6

The FSD update is rolling out with Tesla software update 2025.14.6. Interestingly, update 2025.14.6 is seeing a wider distribution and is also being made available to vehicles without FSD and outside North America. For those vehicles, this update just includes bug fixes.

TCU Fix

There’s one fix in particular that’s expected to be included in this update, according to a message from Tesla Service. In earlier 2025.14 updates, there was a bug in some vehicles that prevented some vehicles from falling asleep properly due to a Telematics Control Unit (TCU) issue. This bug caused additional battery drain since some of the vehicle’s systems remained on.

Tesla Service said they planned to include a bug fix in update 2025.14.6, but it hasn’t been confirmed whether the fix actually made it out in this release.

Early Access Users and More

FSD v13.2.9 was first rolled out to Tesla’s standard Early Access group, including well-known community members and content creators. It has also reached participants in the newer, Texas-based Early Access Program, suggesting that the update is relatively stable and may serve as a foundation for upcoming FSD releases.

Tesla could be intending to use the Texas Early Access Program to test various features, perhaps related to the upcoming Robotaxi network launch in Austin. While this is plausible, it is merely speculation, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on that group to see what exactly Tesla does.

HW3 Users

While Tesla has recently been including FSD updates for HW3 and HW4 in the same release, this update does not include any changes for HW3 users. HW3 vehicles that are receiving this update are staying on FSD V12.6.4, which means that whichever fixes this update includes they’re specific to FSD V13 or HW4.

Point Release - Not Much New

Being a point release, V13.2.9 isn’t expected to introduce any major new capabilities. Tesla hasn’t provided specific release notes detailing changes from V13.2.8.

Hopefully, Tesla has taken into account recent user feedback on V13.2.8 about lane centering and lane selection, and this update addresses some of those issues. However, early feedback is that those issues are still present.

There is always potential for a more substantial update in the near future, so keep your fingers crossed, but after such a long wait, we expected more to be included. It seems like Tesla may have felt the need to address a bug in this release instead of waiting for the next major release, which is expected to either be FSD V13.3 or FSD V14.

Roll Out

The fact that Software Update 2025.14.6 is going out wider than the Early Access audience suggests that Tesla is confident in this release and that it likely only includes very minor changes. We expect this update to continue going out over the coming days.

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