Tesla’s Robotaxi event is rapidly coming up on 10/10, so let’s take a look at some of the cool concepts that we’ve seen.
We’ll start with what we know came from Tesla, and then we’ll let loose and take a look at what the community has come up with.
Tesla’s Concept Art & Previews
Not a Tesla App
The image above is Tesla’s official Robotaxi concept art – or well, as official as it gets. This is actually from Elon Musk’s biography, written by Walter Isaacson. We’re expecting a curvy two-seat vehicle – one that goes by the moniker of Cybercab.
Next up, we have this teaser image Tesla showed off in one of their videos on X. It’s unclear which part of the vehicle it is, but it seems like it could be either the front or rear aero spoiler – though we think it distinctly looks like the front.
Tesla
We’ve also got this interior shot of the Robotaxi that was shown off in an investor video back in May. Two wide, comfy seats, and one big screen in the center.
Dominic’s Cybercab Render
DominicBRNKMN
@DominicBRNKMN on X has once again outdone himself with this Cybercab concept he’s made – the butterfly swing doors look awesome, and it fits with the expected and distinct cyber styling we’ve already seen in Tesla’s previews.
The swing doors make it look easy to get in, and there seems to be plenty of space behind the seats for luggage. We’re a big fan of those wheels too – aero wheels are going to be an important component of the Cybercab – which will need to be efficient, cheap, and prevent debris from building up.
Sugar Design’s Render
Sugar Design
Sugar Design has made a few awesome renders (including of the Model Y Juniper) before – but let’s take a look at their older batch, and then their latest batch. Sugar Design’s concept render is based on the original image from Elon’s biography – and they’ve done an excellent job bringing it to life.
We think this may be pretty close to what the Robotaxi – Cybercab – will look like. It's got that distinct Cyber feeling to it and fits closely with what we expect the lines and curves to end up looking like.
You can check out the rest of Sugar Design’s renders on Instagram here – they do some fantastic work.
Teslaconomics Render
@Teslaconomics on X threw together a quick video render of what could be a falcon-wing Cybercab. If anything, it does feel a bit bigger than what we’re expecting – in fact, it looks like it’s Model X-sized. A cool-looking Cybercab like this would be awesome.
A Tesla Cybercab that is safer, cheaper, and no human driver is going to flip any existing ride-hailing companies upside down that thinks it’s not happening pic.twitter.com/vlFGzAB4I1
David – going by @dkrasniy on X, made some awesome-looking concept designs of the UI of the Robotaxi. We’re a really big fan of these– they integrate drop-off information on the right and provide the FSD preview on the left.
On top of that, it brings in a way to split your fair, preview your payment information, end the ride, and even a fancy little button to ask for help – powered by xAI’s Grok. Given the nods to Tesla’s design styles, David’s work here is pretty on the nose. We would be surprised if it doesn’t end up looking very similar to this.
Vitali Minin’s Concept Art
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@VitaliMinin
Vitali Minin - @VitaliMinin on X, also did up a cute-looking concept of the Robotaxi – we thought it would be neat to show something that’s not necessarily a render, but still an interesting-looking concept that didn’t get much attention. It fits with the cyber-style that we’re coming to expect, but we also like the sloped and curved rear that strikes a sharp profile.
These concepts are a great look at what we can expect Tesla to show off in less than two months at their Robotaxi event on October 10th.
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As Tesla pushes the boundaries of autonomous driving with each iterative FSD update, the hardware that powers every vehicle also needs to continue evolving. With FSD V13 already pushing the capabilities of today’s AI4 hardware, Tesla is actively looking to update its FSD hardware.
Korean news outlet MK (Korean) has provided what seems to be a credible glimpse into Tesla’s next hardware iteration, AI5, and what it could be capable of. MK’s report claims that Tesla is preparing for the production of its new AI5 FSD computer with a performance target of 2,000 to 2,500 TOPS (Trillion Operations Per Second). According to the report, Tesla is considering using Samsung and TSMC to manufacture the hardware.
Putting the Compute Power into Perspective
To grasp what exactly that 2,500 TOPS number means, let’s compare it to Nvidia’s recently released gaming GPUs, the RTX 5080 and the RTX 5090 (about $1,500 and $3,000 GPUs, respectively). The 5080 clocks in at 1,800 TOPS, while the 5090 pushes a powerful 3,400 TOPS. Those also come alongside power draws of 360 and 575 watts, respectively.
For a dedicated automotive AI chip to be able to place itself squarely in the middle of those performance numbers is quite a feat, especially given Tesla’s previous hardware. HW3 clocked in at a measly 144 TOPS, while HW4/AI4, the current generation, pulls in at around 500 TOPS, a solid 3- 5x leap over HW3.
During a past earnings call, Elon claimed AI5 could be as much as 10 times more capable than HW4, which would imply an astronomical 5,000 TOPS. The 2,000 to 2,500 TOPS figure from this new report, however, represents a 4- to 5-fold generational jump, which feels more grounded and aligned with recent performance improvements elsewhere.
What is a “TOPS”?
TOPS is essentially a raw measure of processing power for a specific type of math, one related to the math used by neural networks. For an AI like FSD, it's the single most important metric. Think of it like the AI’s IQ - more TOPS means the computer can think faster and process more information, letting it better understand the environment around the vehicle and make smarter decisions.
True Performance or Skewed?
The key to understanding Elon’s claims about the TOPS figures lies in specialization. Tesla’s FSD computer is what is known as an ASIC - an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit. Unlike a general-purpose GPU in a gaming PC, Tesla’s AI hardware is designed from the ground up for one singular purpose: running the specific types of neural networks that FSD relies on.
This focus allows for incredible efficiency and performance in its designated tasks, and Tesla likely measures performance internally against AI inference benchmarks built around FSD.
The rumor that Tesla is tapping both Samsung and TSMC is pretty significant here as well. Tesla has previously sourced its chips from Samsung but likely requires additional capacity from TSMC, the world’s largest chip fabricator. A multi-source structure like this means Tesla is already putting the pieces together to mitigate supply chain risks.
AI Powerhouse
The need for AI5’s immense power isn’t just about running the current version of FSD, but about being able to support future versions of FSD that may require more computing power. Tesla continues to increase the size of thei AI models, which means that they’ll require more memory. One of the challenges in autonomy is that decisions must be made in just fractions of a second so that the vehicle can react accordingly. If output wasn’t required in nearly real-time, the vehicle could analyze video frames for a longer period and come up with better output, but the need for output in a timely fashion makes computing power critical.
Tesla’s executive team has repeatedly mentioned that the path towards fully Unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi lies in massive computational power alongside redundancy. The system will need to run increasingly complex neural networks to handle edge cases with greater reliability and start the march of 9s (improving from 99% to 99.9% to 99.99%, and so on). Layers of redundancy and multiple checks during the decision-making process will also be required for safety, which also requires additional compute.
What About HW3 and AI4?
With all this talk of AI5, the immediate question for every current Tesla owner and short-term buyer is: “What about MY car?”
AI4 is currently Tesla’s gold standard, and what they’re building today’s FSD, including FSD Unsupervised, around. For now, it offers Tesla enough headroom to continue expanding the neural nets and pushing new builds, but eventually, it too will one day need an upgrade.
Tesla has already stated that AI5 and AI6 will progressively improve FSD and become safer, but that doesn’t mean previous vehicles will be upgraded. Vehicles will only be upgraded if they’re not able to run Unsupervised FSD at a rate that’s safer than humans. Newer models will always perform better and at higher safety levels, but that doesn’t mean older hardware won’t be capable of safe driving.
The real story here is HW3. While Tesla’s executives have previously said that Hardware 3 is “Robotaxi Ready,” the practical reality of FSD V12.6 and V13.2 has set in for many. With FSD V13 pushing the envelope today, and Tesla’s intent to upgrade HW3 vehicles if they can’t figure out a solution, it seems the end of the line is coming.
For owners of HW3 vehicles, this likely means Tesla is planning a retrofit based around AI5 - likely a lower-performance version that will fit the current HW3 power and cooling packages. There could be a similar solution in the future for AI4 vehicles if Tesla plans to address the other half of the fleet, but that’s likely years away and only if they’re not able to achieve autonomy on that hardware.
The neural nets required for FSD to drive itself without supervision in complex urban environments will be orders of magnitude more complex than what we see today in just a few years. AI5 isn't just an upgrade; it's the necessary hardware to advance FSD to the next level.
In the race to deploy autonomous vehicles, there have been two schools of thought. One is led by sensor fusion, which means the more sensors and the more types, the better. The other is Tesla’s school of thought — vision.
So far, even Google’s CEO, Sundar Pichai, has described Tesla as the leader in the autonomy sector.
Google CEO on who is the leader in self-driving space: "I think obviously @Tesla is a leader in the space. It looks to me like Tesla and Waymo are the top two." pic.twitter.com/T0hlSICm8V
A new analysis from Bloomberg (paywall) offers a similar perspective, focusing on the numbers and real-world safety metrics. Tesla’s strategy isn’t just viable - it is far outpacing its competitors.
A Tale of Crash Rates
The most striking numbers from Bloomberg’s analysis are safety-related. According to their comparison, FSD reports approximately 0.15 crashes per million miles driven. In contrast, Waymo reported approximately 1.16 crashes per million miles.
That means that a Tesla using FSD is seven times less likely to be involved in a crash than a Waymo vehicle, even with its bevy of sensors. This is in line with Tesla’s latest vehicle safety report, which notes that a Tesla using FSD is 10 times less likely to be involved in an accident than a driver in any other vehicle.
Crash rates compared
Bloomberg
When it comes down to it, sensor fusion, while it can be fantastic, it simply provides too much data to process and analyze. While LiDAR, radar and cameras all have their unique advantages, cameras end up being the most versatile. Our roads and world were created around vision and audio, so a LiDAR-only vehicle can’t navigate our roadways since it would be unable to see signs or any other object that lacks depth. For LiDAR to be useful, it needs to be coupled with vision.
Vision works well because it applies to all situations, and it’s a system that continues to improve thanks to advancements in image processing and AI. While measurements with vision still lag behind LiDAR, they’ve reached a point where they’d “good enough,” and the millimeter-level accuracy of LiDAR isn’t needed.
When radar and vision disagree, which one do you believe? Vision has much more precision, so better to double down on vision than do sensor fusion.
Besides the difficulty of using sensor fusion, Bloomberg also points out that Tesla’s advantage is in the fundamental cost of the hardware. The Model Y costs just 1/7th of the total cost of a Waymo vehicle.
This enormous cost difference is a direct result of how Tesla and Waymo are approaching autonomy. Waymo’s vehicles are high-end, third-party electric cars, like the now-discontinued Jaguar I-Pace, which are then retrofitted with an expensive, custom-built suite of sensors. This sensor suite includes multiple LIDAR units, radars, and cameras.
Tesla’s ability to scale autonomous driving faster than its rivals gives it an edge in the self-driving race, says Bloomberg Intelligence's Steve Man https://t.co/B1x5Jhx6Lfpic.twitter.com/XYPCblWmXn
Tesla, meanwhile, includes all the hardware for autonomy as standard equipment on each of their vehicles, with a relatively inexpensive suite of cameras and its own in-house designed FSD computer. Using affordable hardware means it’s easy to produce and field more vehicles, resulting in more data.
On top of that, building more vehicles at a lower price creates a larger and larger economic difference as time goes on, as Tesla’s Robotaxis become profitable far quicker than Waymo’s.
3 Billion Miles… and Counting
The biggest advantage that Tesla has over any other entrant into the autonomy ring is simply just data. Tesla’s fleet has gathered over 3 billion miles of driving data globally, whereas Waymo’s fleet is just a minuscule 22 million miles.
Putting that into perspective, for every mile driven by a Waymo vehicle, a Tesla has driven over 135. Tesla’s advantage is also the fact that its data is global. It includes vehicles operating in a range of environments, from deserts to the Arctic, from cities to extremely rural areas, and is capable of achieving generalized autonomy.
Waymo’s data is extremely focused on urban and suburban areas and is effectively unusable for generalized vehicle autonomy. A larger, more capable fleet is the key to providing an effective robotaxi service, after all.
Scaling Manufacturing
Finally, Waymo doesn't produce vehicles. Tesla produces Robotaxis from scratch - every vehicle off the line has the ability to run Unsupervised FSD, and eventually join the Robotaxi fleet. Waymo needs to partner with other companies that have a good platform, and they must adapt their technology to that platform.
Waymo’s fleet is expected to be 2,500 vehicles by the end of 2025, while Bloomberg expects Tesla’s functional fleet to hit 35,000 by the same time. That’s not even counting the millions of AI4-powered vehicles that could also join the fleet by late 2026.
Overall, Tesla is a clear winner in the Robotaxi race - and it isn’t just because of one element. They’re winning through data, cost, and scalability, and the gap will only continue to grow.
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