The refresh, or Highland Model 3 began with engineering test vehicles being spotted near Giga Texas and the Fremont factory in California. Similarly, this covered-up Model Y was spotted near Pasadena, California.
Given the timelines we saw for the new Model 3, this prototype for the Model Y appears to be following a trajectory for an early to mid-2025 launch. Engineering test vehicles for the new Model 3 were first spotted in North America about 6-8 months prior to its introduction to China. After its initial release in Chinese, the vehicle was later released in North America just a few months later.
If timelines for Project Juniper are similar to what we saw for the Model 3, we should expect to see more engineering test vehicles on the road in North America soon.
The vehicle is expected to be released in China first, with a North American and European arrival following sometime after. While the Performance variant of the new Model 3 didn’t launch until April of 2024, several months after the Long Range version was available in North America, it’s not clear whether Tesla will follow a similar strategy and launch the Long Range version of the new Model Y before the Performance model.
Front Bumper Camera
There was a lot of speculation about the refreshed Model 3 coming with a front bumper camera, but so far the Cybertruck is the only Tesla vehicle that includes a bumper camera and a camera washer (video). While updated versions of the Model S and Model X are also expected to add the lower-bumper camera, so also have yet to go on sale as well.
It’s not clear why Tesla didn’t launch the new camera with the new Model 3 since the bumper was already being redesigned and the factories were being retooled. However, according to the spy shot of the updated Model Y, it looks like it could be Tesla’s second vehicle to include the bumper camera. TeslaNewswire shared a photo of the Model Y with the brightness increased which appears to reveal the new front bumper camera. The location is exactly where you’d expect, very similar to the Cybertruck and similar to early shots of the prototype Model 3 that also contained the bumper camera.
It’s not clear whether this additional camera will make it into the production version, but it’s at least a sign that Tesla is considering adding this camera to another model.
Musk Asks People to Stop
Elon Musk replied to Sawyer Merritt on X (Twitter), not only reiterating that the refreshed Model Y will not be released this year. He also asked people to stop hinting that it will be since it damages Tesla’s sales of the current vehicle.
Musk reiterates that the new Model Y will not launch in 2024
kylaschwaberow/X
Potential Upgrades
While the release of the new Model Y may be about a year out in North America – there is a chance that the updated Model Y Juniper could show up with Hardware 5 sensors and computers. Elon Musk estimated that HW5, now dubbed AI5 was about 12-18 months away from production. The new Model Y could be the vehicle that debuts the new FSD package.
Of course, all of the rest of the upgrades that came with the updated Model 3 will all likely come to the Model Y – a new front and rear fascia, new adaptive headlights, increased range, ambient lighting, new colors, new speakers, and better dynamics in general. Package all of that up with what was already the best-selling car in 2023, and we’ve got a hit on our hands.
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Tesla’s Giga Texas factory usually gives us the first site of Tesla’s upcoming products. We first saw the Cybertruck and Model Y castings here. With Giga Texas being one of Tesla’s largest factories, it’s logical that most products would originate here.
Tesla has also stated that it intends to manufacture the Cybercab, Semi, the next-generation vehicle, and Optimus at Giga Texas over the coming years. The affordable vehicle and Cybercab were originally intended to be manufactured at Giga Mexico, but the plans for that facility were waylaid by changes in economic policy.
Robotaxi Castings
These new castings were spotted by Joe Tegtmeyer, who regularly does drone flights of Giga Texas. Joe pointed out that these castings don’t look like the usual Model Y or Cybertruck castings usually seen outside Giga Texas.
With an eagle eye, @minusYCore on X also spotted some interesting text on the frames holding the castings up. In particular, the castings say “RTTX050” and “W68-RSF AS-CAST”. These could be interpreted as ‘Robotaxi Texas’ and ‘Rear SubFrame,’ as Tesla marks Cybertruck castings as “CTTX.” The as-cast portion indicates that these particular castings haven’t been trimmed yet, according to the X user.
The castings laid out.
@JoeTegtmeyer
The size and shape of these castings—combined with rumors that Tesla’s more affordable vehicle has been delayed—suggest that these castings are intended for the Cybercab.
These castings are much flatter and appear to be a different size than the castings found throughout Giga Texas, indicating that they are intended for an entirely different product.
It’s possible that these are the first castings used by Tesla to test their unboxed assembly process, which the Cybercab is expected to rely on. If you take a closer look at the video below, you’ll note that these new castings look very similar to the ones in the unboxed assembly video.
Interestingly, Tesla did say that they don’t intend to have the Cybercab available for customers before late 2026 or early 2027, but we’ll likely hear updated timelines as Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call tomorrow.
A more vertical look at the castings.
@JoeTegtmeyer
New Giga Presses
To top it all off, new parts for a Giga Press - the machine Tesla uses to make these castings - were also sighted in Texas. These machines are few and far between, and each one is highly specialized for the particular vehicle it produces. Seeing new parts coming in usually indicates that a new assembly line is under construction, or that changes are being made to an existing line to either expand it or update it.
There’s a lot happening and we will hopefully know more tomorrow evening.
Tesla’s first large-scale partner for the Tesla Semi - PepsiCo - is building out another Semi Megacharger site per a recent filing found by MarcoRP. Building out these Semi charging sites is expensive due to their much higher power output when compared to Superchargers.
Name Change
Interestingly enough, Tesla appears to have shifted its terminology recently, now often referring to the Semi’s high-power charging solution as Tesla Semi Chargers instead of the previously common "Megachargers." Regardless of the name, these chargers are crucial for the Semi. They’re designed to deliver 1.2 megawatts of charging power capable of adding hundreds of miles of range in roughly 30 minutes.
Frito-Lay Site
The new site detailed in the recent filing will be located at a Frito-Lay production plant on Hageman Road in Bakersfield, California. Permits were filed just a couple of days ago for the installation of eight Tesla Semi Charger stalls along with their associated electrical equipment.
This facility adds to PepsiCo's existing network of chargers, supporting the Tesla Semis operating out of their Sacramento facility, and highlights Bakersfield as the next expansion of the Semi’s operational area. Notably, this new Frito-Lay charging site is strategically located just five miles (approx. 8 km) away from a massive future public charging complex Tesla is planning on Kelton Way.
Kelton Way Charging Complex
Tesla’s planned charging complex in Bakersfield, which is just down the road, will feature 72 Supercharger stalls, as well as 18 Semi charger stalls. According to pre-permits filed last month, this site will be fairly large and accessible to both the public and Tesla’s partners.
A rendering of the Kelton Way site - with the Semi Chargers on the outside, and the Covered Supercharger site in the center.
@MarcoRPi1 on X
Tesla plans to develop a vacant plot right off the interstate into a large charging hub, which is now the second major public Semi Charger site we’ve heard about. For now, these sites will remain rare, but we expect that Tesla and its partners will be happy to expand them out further as required.
Carson Semi Charger Site
These Bakersfield developments – both the private Frito-Lay site and the large public Kelton Way hub will help lay out the necssary infrastructure for the Tesla Semi, much like the early days of Tesla’s Superchargers. Since Semi cannot be charged at a Supercharger site (the MCS plug is notably different than NACS), these sites are a must-have.
Tesla's first publicly accessible Semi Charger site planned near the Port of Long Beach in Carson, California, was one of the first signs of these types of Semi Charger facilities being established - and like Kelton Way, it also includes amenities for truck drivers. Tesla is also considering what long, medium, and short-haul truckers need for their stays at these sites.
As Tesla works to ramp up production of the Semi itself, the parallel expansion of dedicated, high-power charging infrastructure by both Tesla and its key partners are essential to making electric heavy-duty trucking a reality.
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