A green dot appearing on the screen when the camera is monitoring
Whole Mars Catalog
Tesla has rolled out FSD V12.4.1 to its employees today. FSD V12.4.1 is expected to introduce significant improvements to FSD and a batch of new features. The deployment, version 2024.15.5, will soon be available to nearly all vehicles in the fleet, bringing together FSD and non-FSD branches and beginning the elimination of steering wheel nags.
Update: Slightly ahead of Musk’s estimate, Tesla started rolling out FSD 12.4.1 to a small group of owners late last night. Musk had estimated this latest update would start rolling out this weekend to a small batch of customers after going out to employees on Thursday.
One change in this update is the green dot that appears on the screen (shown in the image above), when the cabin camera is actively checking for driver attention. If no additional bugs are found, we may see 12.4.1 roll out to additional customers later this weekend. Follow our roll out page to keep an eye on further releases.
Includes Spring Update Features
Tesla has introduced FSD V12.4.1 on branch 2024.15.5 – which means that vehicles on 2024.3.25, 2024.8.9, and 2024.14.11 and below will be eligible for the update! This is good news, as the majority of the tracked fleet will be eligible.
Users on 2024.3.25 and 2024.8.9 will also be receiving all the features from the Spring Update, including the updated UI and all the other features. This is going to be a major update.
Elon Musk has previously mentioned that FSD V12.4 will bring the fractured FSD and non-FSD branches together, and this looks like it will come true shortly.
Green Dot When Monitoring
With this update, FSD will primarily rely upon the camera driver monitoring system (DMS) to determine whether the driver is paying attention. Of course, this is the initial implementation and has a few limitations. While the cabin camera is monitoring the driver, Tesla will now display a green dot on the screen to let the driver know the camera is active. This is similar to how phones show a green dot when one of the cameras is on.
Driver Monitoring
The cabin camera cannot be occluded or obscured, and it must have continuous visibility of the driver’s eyes to eliminate the steering wheel nag. This means that there must be sufficient cabin illumination, the driver cannot be wearing sunglasses or a low-brim hat, and nothing is preventing the camera from seeing the driver’s eyes. Legacy vehicles without a camera are expected to remain with the steering wheel method of detecting attention.
At this point, regular eyeglasses should not impact the use of the improved DMS – but looking away for extended periods will trigger a warning. Continuous inattention will escalate warnings, and eventually lead to a strikeout.
With this update, drivers will not receive requests for steering wheel nags while the updated DMS is confident that they are paying attention and fulfilling all the conditions.
FSD V12.4.1 Improvements
Besides the elimination of the steering wheel nag, Tesla will be adding quite a few other features to FSD V12.4.1, including an updated Strikeout and Suspension system.
You can receive up to 5 strikeouts before being suspended for a week. Good driving behavior (without a strikeout) will result in a strikeout being removed, once per 7 days.
Musk also mentioned previously that Banish Autopark and Park Seek would be arriving with 12.4, but the release notes for this version don’t mention this. These don’t seem to have arrived just yet, but they could still be coming soon in a V12.4.X update.
Expected Release Date
Given Tesla’s rate of updates and the recent positive news on FSD V12.4.1 from both Elon Musk and testers, we could expect the first customers to start receiving V12.4.1 by this weekend or early next week.
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During a major update presented during the Q2 2025 Earnings Call, Tesla confirmed that its plans for a new, more affordable vehicle are finally on track for sales to begin later this year. Tesla originally stated that production for the more affordable model would begin by the end of the first half of 2025, and they’re technically correct - they’ve begun production, but sales will not begin until late 2025.
Tesla is targeting a production ramp-up throughout Q3 2025, with the vehicle officially going on sale sometime in Q4 2025. To achieve this timeline, Tesla is sticking with what we’ve previously heard about the affordable model. It will likely be a simplified, cut-down version of the ever-popular Model Y, rather than a vehicle built from the ground up on a new platform.
Slower Ramp, Later Launch
While the news of a 2025 launch is exciting, Tesla has cautioned that the production ramp will be slower than initially expected. With the ramp beginning in Q3, Tesla has attributed the slower pace to two key factors: the recent cut of the EV tax credit in the US, and an internal focus on factory retooling.
Let’s break that down. In response to the recent tax credit cut, Tesla has focused its efforts on producing as many of its current vehicles as possible, allowing customers in the United States to purchase vehicles while the tax credit is still active. In order to double down on this, Tesla is running their largest batch of promotions in North America that we’ve ever seen - with a promotion on nearly everything but the new Model S and Model X.
Because of this, their manufacturing lines at Fremont and Giga Texas are running full speed, not allowing time for the retooling needed to produce the affordable model. The affordable model appears to be based on the same platform as the Model 3 and Model Y, as Tesla plans to utilize its existing production facilities to produce the new model.
So, in the simplest of terms, Tesla has been too busy producing vehicles on the very same factory lines that will eventually produce the affordable model. Now, as we enter Q3, Tesla expects to slow down that pace to allow for factory retooling and ramping for the affordable model, for a sales launch in late 2025.
E41: A Pared-Down Model Y
Based on comments from Elon and the team at the Earnings Call, the affordable model will almost certainly be a more cost-effective version based on the existing and proven Model Y. We’ve previously heard rumors about project E41 from China, which told us about a feature-cut Model Y that would come in with a 20% reduction in costs.
The E41 is expected to feature textile seats, similar to those of the cut-down Model 3 for Mexico, while also likely reducing features such as heated and cooled seats, ambient lighting, the rear screen, acoustic glass, and speakers. At the end of the day, E41 isn’t the next-gen, affordable model on a bespoke platform that many have been waiting for—the Tesla Compact. Instead, it’s a simplified and pared-down Model Y that is more affordable for a wider range of potential buyers.
This reduced complexity allows Tesla to bring a lower-cost vehicle to market much more quickly. It is a pragmatic decision that prioritizes getting an affordable, FSD-capable EV into customers' hands sooner. This lets Tesla adapt to current market and economic realities, rather than waiting for a revolutionary but more complex-to-manufacture new platform.
Will There Be a Next-Gen Model?
Tesla still has several plans for new battery cell types and new drivetrains in their plans for 2026 and 2027. In addition, with the new LFP battery production plant in the United States beginning to scale up, there is a good chance that Tesla is still hard at work in their secretive design studio on a newer, smaller, and even more affordable model.
We believe that Tesla still intends to produce a new, smaller model, but given today’s market realities, it doesn’t make sense to introduce an extremely low-margin model into the lineup. This is especially true when new car sales are suffering due to economic uncertainties and tariff obligations are changing daily.
The Next Steps
Now, with what is likely the E41 beginning production ramps at Fremont and Giga Texas, we’ll have to wait to see exactly what Tesla has done to cut down on the Model Y and what they manage to cut the price down to.
With the Model Y RWD coming in at $44,990, a 20% price cut would bring it down to about $35,990 (before incentives), making it by far Tesla’s cheapest EV. That makes it remarkably more affordable, especially for those who still have remaining state incentives in place. By some miracle, if Tesla can bring that price down to $29,990, it may become the best-selling budget vehicle we’ve ever seen. We don’t expect such a drastic price cut until at least the introduction of the next-generation model, though.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on what Tesla does, as if they’re actually producing these vehicles now, it shouldn’t be long before we’re able to spot them.
It’s happening… According to an internal memo viewed by Business Insider, Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi Network to a new city. This expansion will take place in the San Francisco Bay Area and marks the first Robotaxi expansion.
According to Business Insider, this timeline was accelerated following the success of Robotaxi in Austin. Following a discussion with our own source, the rollout is expected to begin on Sunday morning. Interestingly, this timeline lines right up with the conclusion of the X Takeover event in San Mateo, which several Tesla executives are likely attending.
This launch will mark the second city for Tesla’s ride-hailing service, following its debut in Austin. As with Austin, the service will be invite-only for some Tesla owners, who will be able to hail and pay for rides via the Robotaxi app.
What to Expect
For this initial deployment, the Robotaxis will still be deployed with a human safety monitor, but with a catch. Unlike the Austin deployment, where the monitor sits in the passenger seat, the Bay Area monitors will be in the driver’s seat. This is a critical distinction, and for all intents and purposes, a safety driver. This is due to regulatory reasons, which we’ll dive into.
The service will operate within a geofenced area covering a wide swath of the Bay Area. The memo mentions that the area should cover Marin, San Jose, and much of the East Bay area. Tesla will once again be using the modified Model Ys it uses for the Austin Robotaxi Network - equipped with a second telecommunications unit.
We’re expecting Tesla to send out a round of invites in the coming days for owners local to the Bay Area.
Regulatory Grey Area
While the launch is a landmark moment for Tesla, there’s an interesting story behind just how they’re navigating the rollout of Robotaxi, given California’s complex regulatory environment. The presence of a safety monitor in the driver’s seat isn’t a precaution - it is exactly the way Tesla intends to push the deployment until formal federal regulations supersede municipal and state regulations on autonomous vehicles.
According to the California DMV, Tesla has a permit for testing FSD with a safety driver, but has not yet secured a permit for driverless testing or deployment. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which regulates ride-hailing services, has also not received an application from Tesla for a commercial public service permit as of early July, according to Business Insider.
By keeping a fully capable monitor in the driver’s seat, Tesla appears to be operating in a regulatory grey area. The service could be defined as a “chauffeured ride-hailing service” that uses FSD as an “advanced driver-assist” feature, rather than a fully autonomous service. This allows Tesla to continue operating under its existing testing permits while it continues to work with the DMV and CPUC to obtain approval.
Elon previously mentioned that the Bay Area regulators have been extremely reasonable, so this strategy was likely developed in conjunction with the regulators to start the rollout early and obtain regular permitting as operations continue.
This is definitely a bold first step outside of Austin, and we’re happy to see that Tesla is pushing hard on expanding the Robotaxi Network. This allows Tesla to gather invaluable data on FSD performance in another dense and challenging environment, while also adding more paying customers to its network. Tesla also plans to expand to Florida and Arizona, as well as other US states and cities by the end of 2025, so there will definitely be more to come.
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