After months of no updates, Elon Musk has announced that Tesla will soon release a new FSD update, in what he’s calling a “step change improvement,” so expectations will be high for this one. The biggest change is that Tesla is merging in the changes they’ve been making for Robotaxi FSD into the consumer software branch.
Elon also provided an update on the rollout of Robotaxi to additional US cities like San Francisco, as well as FSD for other regions like Europe and China. Let’s dig in - as this is some of the most exciting FSD-related news we’ve seen in a while.
Next FSD Update
For the millions of Tesla owners using various versions of FSD (Supervised), whether on HW3 or HW4, it has been months since the last update
However, the Tesla AI team isn’t standing still. They’ve been making constant improvements to the Robotaxi version of FSD, so hearing that Tesla will integrate that version into FSD Supervised is certainly exciting.
The FSD update is expected to include a 4.5x increase in parameters, as well as better memory management and improved caching for better reaction times.
Musk says that Tesla still needs to validate that the improvements they’ve made for Austin in particular don’t cause regressions elsewhere. Regression testing is a necessary step when training neural nets, as they can learn and unlearn things extremely rapidly, as one new behavior can cause a regression in another.
We need to validate that improvements for Austin don’t cause regressions elsewhere.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 20, 2025
For Europe and China, we are awaiting regulatory approval. Hopefully, soon🤞
How The Rollout Will Work
Essentially, we’re at a good spot here. The fact that Tesla is now working on merging Robotaxi FSD into FSD Supervised is a good sign, even if there’s work to be done. We expect these builds to go out to the FSD testing fleet (not the Robotaxi validation testers we’ve seen throughout Texas). These dedicated testers will make sure there are no regressions - and once they give the thumbs up, the standard rollout process begins. Given that the Robotaxis are running HW4 and Tesla is merging Robotaxi FSD into FSD Supervised, we expect this to be an HW4-only rollout.
Once validation is complete, Tesla will likely roll out the update to employees, followed by early access influencers (and potentially also Early Access Program members). Once it is in their hands and we see good progress there, it’ll begin rolling out to customers en masse.
Elon commented on X last night, saying they’re looking good for Q3 release, which puts us in the September timeframe.
Global Rollout Status
Elon also provided an update on two other items - launching Robotaxi in other cities, and launching FSD into other markets - and made it clear that the next hurdle isn’t on Tesla, it is on regulatory approval. Bureaucratic red tape seems to be the biggest obstacle to Tesla’s autonomy ambitions lately - but it is progressing well in some regions, such as Australia.
For the Bay Area, as well as potentially other cities that Tesla is considering, such as Phoenix, Arizona, approval is pending from regulators. Elon mentioned that regulators were being reasonable, which isn’t something we hear often.
As soon as the regulators approve (they are being quite reasonable tbh)
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 20, 2025
For other markets, including China (for HW3 vehicles) and Europe, the red tape is still in place. Both of these markets have big regulatory hurdles that Tesla needs to overcome. In China’s case, every new update must be validated with the government, which takes additional time. In Europe’s case, we’re still awaiting the green light from UNECE regulators to approve autonomous vehicles on European roads.
Elon provided a much-needed update on FSD and Robotaxi, one that we hadn’t had in a long time. Current users can look forward to what is likely a major capability boost, sourced from Robotaxi in Austin, while those outside of North America now have some additional hope that FSD may arrive before the end of 2025.
