Is Tesla’s Future as a Car Company, or a Services Company?

Robotaxi concept idea

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With Tesla’s highly anticipated Robotaxi event just a couple of months away on 8/8, and the Robotaxi itself expected to come to market in 2025 or 2026, the question arises: what is Tesla’s future direction?

Will they continue to produce cutting-edge cars, or will they pivot toward a future where car ownership may no longer make sense?

Advantages of Robotaxi

One of Tesla’s upcoming focuses is bringing the price per mile for its Robotaxi network down to one that rivals bus tickets in major cities. Achieving this is quite an engineering and software feat and something that could still be years away.

But what about the Robotaxi itself? Will the advent of cheap, quickly available robotic taxis in cities and suburbs drive away car ownership in urbanized areas?

Tesla's robotaxi concept

Not a Tesla App

The potential for Tesla’s Robotaxi service to transform what we currently know as urban mobility is immense. By offering a cost-effective, convenient, and eco-friendly alternative to traditional car ownership, Tesla could change how people navigate cities. The allure of summoning a cheap, quick, and clean Robotaxi could reduce car ownership in cities, alleviate traffic congestion, reduce pollution, and ease parking issues in urban areas.

Moreover, if Tesla succeeds in reducing the price per mile to be competitive with, or even cheaper than mass transit options, the financial incentive to abandon car ownership could become even stronger. For many urbanites, the expenses associated with car ownership – such as insurance, parking, maintenance, charging or fueling costs, and the upfront purchase – can be prohibitive. Robotaxis could tip the balance by providing a seamless, on-demand transportation solution without these additional expenses.

Trust in Robotaxis

Tesla's robotaxi app

Not a Tesla App

However, there are significant obstacles between Tesla and its rosy Robotaxi future. Regulatory and societal hurdles loom ahead on the horizon. From a regulatory perspective, getting Robotaxi services approved will be a major challenge, as Tesla’s autonomous competitors have found themselves operating in regulatory grey zones. Governments will need to develop new frameworks to accommodate and oversee the deployment of autonomous vehicles, ensuring they meet safety and operational standards.

Societally, people will need to adapt to the idea of letting a computer drive them around. This transition can be challenging; even Tesla has found it difficult to convert those offered the FSD V12 trial into paying subscribers. Building trust in autonomous vehicle technology is crucial for the mass adoption of Robotaxi services. Outside of diehard fans and tech enthusiasts, the general public will need to be convinced of the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicles.

Ensuring that Tesla’s reputation for safe vehicles transfers to Robotaxi and FSD will be essential. Tesla must demonstrate the consistent safety and reliability of its Robotaxis to gain this trust.

Reducing Parking & Increasing Drop Off Zones

Moreover, the presence and availability of Robotaxis required to displace car ownership in urban centers will necessitate substantial infrastructure investment and acceptance by local governments. Tesla has already deployed an impressive Supercharger network, but the scale required for a fully operational Robotaxi network is much larger. This will mean developing parking garages and charging stations in urban centers, located in centralized areas to ensure ease of access for Robotaxis.

Additionally, integrating Robotaxis into the existing urban fabric will require collaboration with city planners and local authorities. They will need to address concerns about traffic flow, designated pickup and drop-off points, and the overall impact on public transportation systems. The seamless integration of Robotaxis into cityscapes will be critical for their success.

In short, while the promise of Tesla’s Robotaxi network is transformative, achieving this vision will require overcoming significant technical, regulatory, and societal challenges. If Tesla can navigate these obstacles, the benefits of a cost-effective, convenient, and eco-friendly transportation alternative could revolutionize urban mobility, reduce car ownership, and contribute to a more sustainable future.

The interior of Tesla's upcoming robotaxi, named Cybercab

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Tesla as a Car Company

Today, Tesla is still fundamentally a car company. It produces five different consumer vehicles: the Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and the Cybertruck. Of these, the Model Y achieved remarkable success in 2023, becoming the best-selling vehicle in the world, a significant milestone for an electric vehicle (EV). This success underscores Tesla’s engineering and design prowess, demonstrating its ability to create vehicles that appeal to everyday consumers.

Tesla’s focus on innovation and pushing the boundaries has set it apart in the automotive industry. The company revolutionized car manufacturing with its Gigacasting process, which allows large sections of the vehicle to be made from single pieces of cast aluminum. This innovation reduces complexity, increases production efficiency, and lowers costs. Tesla continues to innovate with its Unboxed vehicle assembly process, further streamlining production. Tesla’s vertically integrated approach is unique in the industry, minimizing reliance on third-party suppliers for vehicle subcomponents. This strategy enhances quality control and allows for faster implementation of new technologies. The Gigafactory model, established by Tesla, plays a crucial role in this approach. Located in the United States, China, Germany, and soon in Mexico, these Gigafactories are not just manufacturing hubs; they are centers of innovation. They serve as test beds for updated production processes and vehicle designs and are sites for subcomponent and battery assembly.

Beyond their manufacturing capabilities, each Tesla vehicle is an engineering marvel. Tesla’s cars consistently score some of the highest ratings in safety tests, reflecting the company’s commitment to building safe vehicles. Their performance is equally impressive; for example, the updated Model 3 Performance boasts an impressive 0-60 mph acceleration time. Tesla also continues to push the envelope with forthcoming models, such as the eagerly anticipated updated Roadster, which promises to deliver unparalleled performance.

Tesla has set industry standards in several key areas, including over-the-air updates, battery performance, acceleration, range, and user experience. The ability to receive software updates remotely keeps Tesla vehicles current and continuously enhances the user experience. The company leads in battery technology, offering some of the best range and performance metrics in the industry. Tesla’s vehicles are known for their impressive acceleration and long driving ranges, making them not only environmentally friendly but also highly practical and enjoyable to drive. Furthermore, Tesla excels in providing a superior user experience, both in the vehicle and during the shopping process, with minimalist, high-tech interiors and intuitive user interfaces.

Tesla Challenges

However, Tesla faces significant challenges as it continues to grow. The automotive industry is fiercely competitive, with both established automakers and new entrants ramping up their EV offerings. Companies like Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen, and Rivian are investing heavily in electric vehicle technology and infrastructure, intensifying the competition. There are also upcoming Chinese EV companies making strides in both battery tech and additionally, the global transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles is still in its early stages. Broader adoption of EVs depends on various factors, including government policies, the development of charging infrastructure, and changing consumer preferences. Tesla’s ability to influence and adapt to these factors will be crucial for its sustained growth as a car manufacturer. 

Wrapping it all together, while Tesla is exploring new avenues as a services company, its core identity as a car manufacturer remains robust. The company’s success with the Model Y and its innovative manufacturing practices highlight its strength in the automotive sector. As Tesla continues to push the boundaries of electric vehicle technology and manufacturing, it solidifies its position as a leader in the industry and sets the stage for future growth.

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The Curious Case of Banish - What Happened to Tesla’s Self-Parking Feature?

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For years, Tesla owners have been intrigued by the promise of a truly hands-off parking experience, one that goes beyond simply just letting your car park itself when you arrive at the parking lot. Banish, sometimes also known as Banish Autopark or Reverse Summon, was envisioned as the ultimate parking convenience. Your Tesla would drop you off at the entrance to your destination, full chauffeur style, and then leave to find a suitable parking spot nearby. Coupled with Park Seek, your Tesla would drive through a parking lot to locate an open space and then park itself, waiting on standby.

Then, when you were ready, you would be able to Summon it to the entrance, showing up right as you do, for the smoothest autonomous experience. However, despite the initial excitement and focus from Elon back when V12.5 was supposed to include it, we’ve heard very little about Banish. It has remained a relatively elusive feature - and the last time we saw anything on it was all the way back in October 2024, when it was alluded to in some Tesla app code. 

So, what happened to Banish?

The Original Promise: A Smarter Way to Park

The concept of Banish was a logical extension of Tesla’s existing Summon and Autopark capabilities. Instead of just parking when a spot is identified by the driver, Banish and Park Seek were meant to give your Tesla more agency. After dropping off the occupants, your Tesla would leverage FSD and its autonomy to:

This functionality was often discussed in conjunction with improvements to Autopark and was highlighted as a step towards Tesla’s vision of a Robotaxi future. Interestingly, while the October 2024 FSD Roadmap mentioned Park, Unpark, and Reverse, it did not mention Banish. The lack of Banish as a milestone in the FSD Roadmaps leaves us to believe that Tesla has put this feature on the back burner while it works on other FSD-related priorities.

Today’s FSD & Autopark: Capable, But Not Quite Banish

Fast forward to Spring 2025, and FSD V13 does exhibit some tendencies in terms of self-parking capabilities. As noted by many on social media, FSD can identify and maneuver into parking spots when arriving at a destination. However, this is generally not the proactive Park Seek envisioned for Banish. The current system requires the driver to be present, even if hands-off. It often identifies spots as it directly approaches them, and its seeking behavior in a larger parking lot is extremely limited.

Users have also observed that while Tesla’s vision-based Autopark is often impressively accurate even on the massive Cybertruck, letting FSD nose-in to a spot can sometimes result in the car being poorly aligned or missing the lines entirely. This suggests that while your Tesla can park itself, the nuanced understanding and precision required for a truly reliable and Unsupervised Banish experience are still under development.

V13’s upcoming features indicate that it is supposed to provide additional support for personal and parking garages and driveways, which haven’t been added in quite yet. In fact, none of V13’s upcoming features have been realized yet - and it has been a while since a proper FSD update has come from Tesla.

The Underlying Tech is Ready

Interestingly, the core AI capabilities required for Banish and Park Seek are detailed extensively in a recently published Tesla Patent covering Autonomous and User Controlled Vehicle Summon to a Target. This patent describes generating an occupancy grid of the parking lot, then conducting path planning to the spot, and making decisions to safely navigate the lot at low speeds while keeping in mind pedestrians and other road users.

This indicates that Tesla has been working on the foundational AI for low-speed maneuvering in tight locations for quite some time. However, the challenge likely lies in achieving the necessary reliability, safety, and real-world robustness across an almost infinite variety of parking lot designs and in dynamic conditions.

What’s Next? Robotaxi.

The impending launch of Tesla’s Robotaxi Network in Austin in June brings the need for Banish-like capabilities into sharp focus. For a fleet of autonomous vehicles to operate efficiently, they must be able to manage their parking autonomously. A Robotaxi will need to drop off its passenger at the entrance to a location and then proceed to either its next pickup or autonomously find a parking or staging spot to await its next ride or even go back to base to charge.

It is plausible that a functional, robust version of Park Seek and Banish is being developed and tested internally as a component for Tesla’s Robotaxi launch and presumably what will be FSD Unsupervised. The initial rollout in Austin may just be the first real-world deployment of this tech from Tesla.

While Banish has yet to launch, the key components are in place and just need to be improved. The issue likely lies in safety, as parking lots account for 1 and 5 accidents that occur in North America.

In all likelihood, Banish isn’t canceled but is being integrated into an FSD Unsupervised and the Robotaxi feature set. That means a public rollout will likely depend on achieving a higher level of safety and confidence before Tesla is willing to let vehicles park themselves autonomously or even while being Supervised through the Tesla app.

For now, you’ll have to keep parking yourself, or letting FSD or Autopark do the job. A convenient curbside drop-off isn’t in the cards yet, but given the necessity for Robotaxi, it’ll need to arrive eventually.

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Tesla's Smart Summon Patent Describes How It Works and Hints at Future Abilities

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Tesla’s Summon, Smart Summon, and Actually Smart Summon features have long been a source of fascination (and occasional frustration), offering FSD users a glimpse into a future where your vehicle picks you up.

While we await further improvements to Actually Smart Summon to increase reliability and range, a recently published Tesla patent (US20250068166A1) provides an inside look into the intricate AI and sensor technologies that make these complex, low-speed autonomous maneuvers possible.

Notably, the list of inventors on this patent reads like a "who's who" of Tesla's AI and Autopilot leadership, including Elon Musk and former Director of AI Andrej Karpathy, among many others.

Though the patent is a continuation of earlier work, with some dates stretching back to 2019, it lays out the core logic that powers Tesla's vision-based system.

Step-by-Step Navigation

Tesla’s patent details a sophisticated system designed to allow a vehicle to autonomously navigate from its current position to a target location specified by a remote user. The remote user can also designate themselves as the target, even while they’re moving, and have the vehicle meet them.

This process begins with destination and target acquisition. The system is designed to receive a target geographical location from a user, for example, by dropping a pin via the Tesla app. Alternatively, it can use a “Come to Me” feature, where the car navigates to the user’s dynamic GPS location. In this same section, the patent also mentions the ability to handle altitude, which is crucial for multi-story parking garages, and even handle final orientations at arrival.

Occupancy Grid

At the heart of the system is the use of sensor data to perceive the environment. This is done through Tesla Vision, which builds a representation of the surrounding environment, similar to how FSD maps and builds a 3D world in which to navigate. A neural network processes this environment to determine drivable space and generate an “occupancy grid.” This grid maps the area around the vehicle, detailing drivable paths versus obstacles.

The patent still references the use of alternative sensors, like ultrasonic sensors and radar, even though Tesla does not use them anymore. The system can also load saved occupancy grids from when the car was parked to improve initial accuracy.

Path Planner

Once the environment is understood, a Path Planner Module calculates an intelligent and optimal path to the target. This isn’t just the shortest route; the system uses cost functions to evaluate potential paths, penalizing options with sharp turns, frequent forward/reverse changes, or a higher likelihood of encountering obstacles. The path planning also considers the vehicle’s specific operating dynamics, like its turning radius. Interestingly, the Path Planner Module can also handle multi-part destinations with waypoints - a feature that isn’t available yet on today’s version of Actually Smart Summon.

Generating Commands

Once the path is determined, the Vehicle Controller takes the path and translates it into commands for the vehicle actuators, which control the steering, acceleration, and braking to navigate the vehicle along the planned route. As the vehicle moves, the Path Planner continues to recalculate and adjust the path as required.

Since Actually Smart Summon is nearly autonomous with the exception of the user having to hold the Summon button (app update hints at not having to hold the button soon), continuous safety checks are integral. This includes using the Path Planner and the occupancy grid to judge if there is a chance for a collision, and overriding navigation if necessary. The patent also mentions the possibility of users remotely controlling aspects like steering and speed but with continuous safety overrides in place. This is another cool little feature that Tesla has yet to include with today’s Actually Smart Summon - being able to control your full-size car like an RC car. This feature could be used for robotaxis if the vehicles get stuck and need to be tele-operated.

Reaching the Target

Upon reaching the destination, or the closest safe approximation (like the other side of a road), the system can trigger various actions. These include sending a notification to the user, turning on the interior or exterior lights, adjusting climate control, and unlocking or opening the doors. Another yet-to-arrive feature here is the fact that the destination triggers in the patent also include correctly orienting the vehicle for charging if the destination is a charger. This part of the patent doesn’t reference wireless charging, but we’re sure there’s more to this than it seems.

A Glimpse Into the Future

While this patent has dates stretching back to 2019, its recent publication as a continued application tells us that Tesla is still actively iterating on its Summon functionality. It details a comprehensive system that has been well thought out for complex, confined spaces, which will be key for both today’s convenience features like Actually Smart Summon - but also for Tesla’s upcoming robotaxis.

The depth of engineering described, from neural network-based perception to sophisticated path planning and safety protocols, explains the impressive capabilities of Tesla's Summon features when they work well and the inherent challenges in making them robust across an infinite variety of real-world scenarios. As Tesla continues to refine its AI, the foundational principles laid out in this patent will undoubtedly continue to evolve, actually bringing "Actually Smart Summon" to reality.

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