Tesla Earnings Call: Top Investor Questions and What to Expect

April 20, 2024

By Cláudio Afonso

Render of a possible Model 2 approved by Elon Musk in December 2023 commenting on X “Good Design”

@Teslaconomics

Tuesday, April 23, marks one of the most expected events for Elon Musk-led company Tesla. No, it is not yet the unveil of the Robotaxi — which is planned for August 8th — but the first quarter earnings results followed by a 1-hour earnings call answering questions from analysts and shareholders.

As of today, more than 2,300 queries have been submitted by both individual and institutional investors using the Say Technologies Platform. A total of over 8,680 shareholders have engaged in the Q&A sessions, representing approximately 7.13 million shares.

4680 Cells

The top-voted question, currently tallying 1,500 votes and representing 3.3 million shares, seeks insights into the development status and specifics of Tesla's 4680 battery cells.

In late January 24, Tesla said it was "running one production line and one assembly line" with "four more to be installed in the third quarter" adding that it expected "to ramp order from our suppliers".

At the time, the world's largest EV manufacturer said the 4680 production was "ahead of the ramp, with weeks of finished cells in inventory". Six weeks later, in mid-March, Tesla said it produced over 1,000 Cybertrucks’ worth of 4680 cells at its Giga Texas. Given that each Cybertruck uses 1,366 4680 cells, Tesla produced in that week 1.366 million 4680 cells.

Optimus

The second most popular query, trailing closely behind the first by a margin of 3.2 million versus 3.3 million shares represented, pertains to an update from Tesla's CEO regarding the status of Tesla's robot, Optimus.

Elon Musk garnered attention last January when he shared a video showcasing Optimus within a Tesla factory, demonstrating the robot folding a shirt. The video swiftly gained traction, prompting inquiries, including one from Marques Brownlee, one of the most popular YouTubers, who queried Musk: "Is this video authentic or computer-generated?”. The question was not answered by Elon.

Approximately 30 minutes later, Musk clarified that Optimus is currently unable to autonomously fold a shirt, hinting at future developments. He asserted that it will be capable of doing so "certainly," further noting that it won't be limited to a fixed environment, such as a table with a single shirt.

Optimus folds a shirt pic.twitter.com/3F5o3jVLq1
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 15, 2024

One month later, Elon posted a new video of Optimus walking faster and in a closer human-like way when compared to the previous walkdown video posted on the last day of January.

After these developments, Tesla shareholders and enthusiasts have been questioning Musk for a precise timeline of when these robots can support the manufacturer and turn it faster and more efficient.

Robotaxi + $25k Model

According to three sources and company messages seen by Reuters in early April, Tesla was abandoning its plan to launch the $25,000 model. Yet, Tesla‘s CEO Elon Musk quickly dismissed the report without specifying any further details.

Later in the day, Elon Musk announced that Tesla is set to unveil its highly anticipated robotaxi on August 8th which is expected to be constructed upon Tesla's next-generation vehicle platform.

Two weeks ago, Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen commented on the rumors saying "I would just say stay tuned. Don’t always believe what you read".

Franz @woodhaus2 on the new rumored $25,000 future Tesla pic.twitter.com/eAK7u3wxUI
— Zack (@BLKMDL3) April 7, 2024

In recent weeks, scrutiny has intensified among shareholders and enthusiasts regarding the accuracy of reports surrounding Tesla's $25,000 model, and whether it has been canceled or deprioritized as the company shifts its focus towards autonomous driving technology.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, in a note released on Friday, remarked that the debate between the Model 2 and Robotaxi has gained significant attention, with investors eagerly anticipating an announcement from Tesla CEO Elon Musk regarding the Model 2 within the next 12 to 18 months.

Deutsche Bank analyst Emanuel Rosner echoed similar sentiments earlier in the week, expressing a belief in the "high likelihood" of a delay in the Model 2 release, citing Tesla's strategic pivot towards Robotaxi technology. Rosner emphasized that the firm's Buy rating hinged on the arrival of Tesla's next-generation vehicle, originally anticipated for late next year.

On Friday, Tesla's stock plunged to a new 15-month low of $145.05 per share during pre-market trading, resulting in a market capitalization dip below $480 billion.

Earlier this week, Tesla expanded its 0 percent interest financing program to the German market, mirroring a similar initiative launched in China earlier this month. This financing option is now available for the Model Y Long Range Dual Motor or Performance variants in Germany, with the Performance model starting at €59,990 and the Long Range dual motor variant priced at €54,990.

In a significant internal announcement on Monday, Tesla disclosed a workforce reduction exceeding 10%, affecting over 14,000 employees globally.

Despite Tesla's recent announcement of the production of 433,371 vehicles, with 386,783 delivered, the figures fell short of Wall Street's expectations of 431,000 units delivered.

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Tesla’s Optimus Robot Learns to Walk Without Vision [VIDEO]

December 13, 2024

By Karan Singh

Optimus Falls - but catches itself!

Not a Tesla App

Tesla recently showed off a demo of Optimus, its humanoid robot, walking around in moderately challenging terrain—not on a flat surface but on dirt and slopes. These things can be difficult for a humanoid robot, especially during the training cycle.

Daily walks help clear your mind pic.twitter.com/dUsW58trS6
— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) December 9, 2024

A Look Behind the Curtain

Most interestingly, Milan Kovac, VP of Engineering for Optimus, clarified what it takes to get Optimus to this stage. Let’s break down what he said.

Optimus is Blind

Optimus is getting seriously good at walking now - it can keep its balance over uneven ground - even while walking blind. Tesla is currently using just the sensors, all powered by a neural net running on the embedded computer.

Essentially, Tesla is building Optimus from the ground up, relying on as much additional data as possible while it trains vision. This is similar to how they train FSD on vehicles, using LiDAR rigs to validate the vision system’s accuracy. While Optimus doesn’t have LiDAR, it relies on all those other sensors on board, many of which will likely become simplified as vision takes over as the primary sensor.

Today, Optimus is walking blind, but it’s able to react almost instantly to changes in the terrain underneath it, even if it falls or slips.

What’s Next?

Next up, Tesla AI will be adding vision to Optimus - helping complete the neural net. Remember, Optimus runs on the same overall AI stack as FSD - in fact, Optimus uses an FSD computer and an offshoot of the FSD stack for vision-based tasks.

Milan mentions they’re planning on adding vision to help the robot plan ahead and improve its walking gait. While the zombie shuffle is iconic and a little bit amusing, getting humanoid robots to walk like humans is actually difficult.

There’s plenty more, too - including better responsiveness to velocity and direction commands and learning to fall and stand back up. Falling while protecting yourself to minimize damage is something natural to humans - but not exactly natural to something like a robot. Training it to do so is essential in keeping the robot, the environment around it, and the people it is interacting with safe.

We’re excited to see what’s coming with Optimus next because it is already getting started in some fashion in Tesla’s factories.

Is Tesla Close to Licensing FSD? GM Quits Cruise, BMW Praises Tesla

December 13, 2024

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

In a relatively surprising move, GM announced that it is realigning its autonomy strategy and prioritizing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) over fully autonomous vehicles.

GM is effectively closing Cruise (autonomous) and focusing on its Super Cruise (ADAS) feature. The engineering teams at Cruise will join the GM teams working on Super Cruise, effectively shuttering the fully autonomous vehicle business.

End of Cruise

GM cites that “an increasingly competitive robotaxi market” and “considerable time and resources” are required for scaling the business to a profitable level. Essentially - they’re unable to keep up with competitors at current funding and research levels, putting them further and further behind.

Cruise has been offering driverless rides in several cities, using HD mapping of cities alongside vehicles equipped with a dazzling array of over 40 sensors. That means that each cruise vehicle is essentially a massive investment and does not turn a profit while collecting data to work towards Autonomy.

Cruise has definitely been on the back burner for a while, and a quick glance at their website - since it's still up for now - shows the last time they officially released any sort of major news packet was back in 2019.

Competition is Killer

Their current direct competitor - Waymo, is funded by Google, which maintains a direct interest in ensuring they have a play in the AI and autonomy space.

Interestingly, this news comes just a month after Tesla’s We, Robot event, where they showed off the Cybercab and the Robotaxi network, as well as plans to begin deployment of the network and Unsupervised FSD sometime in 2025. Tesla is already in talks with some cities in California and Texas to launch Robotaxi in 2025.

GM Admits Tesla Has the Right Strategy

As part of the business call following the announcement, GM admitted that Tesla’s end-to-end and Vision-based approach towards autonomy is the right strategy. While they say Cruise started down that path, they’re putting aside their goals towards fully autonomous vehicles for now and focusing on introducing that tech in Super Cruise instead.

NEWS: GM just admitted that @Tesla’s end-to-end approach to autonomy is the right strategy.

“That’s where the industry is pivoting. Cruise had already started making headway down that path. We are moving to a foundation model and end-to-end approach going forward.” pic.twitter.com/ACs5SFKUc3
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) December 10, 2024

With GM now focusing on Super Cruise, they’ll put aside autonomy and instead focus solely on ADAS features to relieve driver stress and improve safety. While those are positive goals that will benefit all road users, full autonomy is really the key to removing the massive impact that vehicle accidents have on society today.

In addition, Super Cruise is extremely limited, cannot brake for traffic controls, and doesn’t work in adverse conditions - even rain. It can only function when lane markings are clear, there are no construction zones, and there is a functional web connection.

The final key to the picture is that the vehicle has to be on an HD-mapped and compatible highway - essentially locking Super Cruise to wherever GM has time to spend mapping, rather than being functional anywhere in a general sense, like FSD or Autopilot.

Others Impressed - Licensing FSD

Interestingly, some other manufacturers have also weighed into the demise of Cruise. BMW, in a now-deleted post, said that a demo of Tesla’s FSD is “very impressive.” There’s a distinct chance that BMW and other manufacturers are looking to see what Tesla does next.

BMW chimes in on a now-deleted post. The Internet is forever, BMW!

Not a Tesla App

It seems that FSD has caught their eyes after We, Robot - and that the demonstrations of FSD V13.2 online seem to be the pivot point. At the 2024 Shareholder Meeting earlier in the year, Elon shared the fact that several manufacturers had reached out, looking to understand what was required to license FSD from Tesla.

There is a good chance 2025 will be the year we’ll see announcements of the adoption of FSD by legacy manufacturers - similar to how we saw the surprise announcements of the adoption of the NACS charging standard.