The Road Not Taken: Apple's Missed Chance on Tesla's Electric Dream

Apple Bows out of EV Race

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In the high-stakes game of technological innovation and market disruption, Tesla has come out on top despite the odds. Meanwhile, Apple Inc.'s recent decision to cancel its electric car project, Project Titan, serves as a poignant reminder of what might have been. What would’ve happened if Tim Cook met with Elon Musk?

During the darkest days of the Model 3 program, I reached out to Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla (for 1/10 of our current value). He refused to take the meeting.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 22, 2020

Given its success, it’s easy to forget where Tesla came from. Still, when Apple fails to pull it off, it reflects on the potential strategic missteps of tech giants when faced with groundbreaking opportunities.

Apple's Missed Chance

Apple decided not to make electric cars, even though it had the money and history of shaking up markets. This choice shows they didn't want to stray too far from what the company is good at, even if it meant missing out on a big opportunity. But what did they leave on the table? Apple has some of the brightest minds and the resources to create the unimaginable. Yet Apple’s wonder team could not figure out how to get the technology right and the price point under $100,000 even with razor-thin margins.

Again, that shows what Tesla has been able to do. Not only building amazing cars but also reconstructing the manufacturing process, developing battery technology, and turning the automotive world on its head. Many of these pieces were already in place when Musk was in his “darkest days” with Tesla. Model 3 was a challenge that almost killed Tesla, and Musk claims he has PTSD from the experience. However, he was ready to hand all that technology, knowledge, and manufacturing to Apple for a bargain price.

The Road Not Taken: Apple's Strategic Pivot

Despite its vast resources and history of disruptive innovation, Apple's decision to shelve Project Titan suggests a reluctance to venture too far from its core competencies, even in the face of a potentially market-defining opportunity. While pragmatic, this pivot away from electric vehicles may be viewed through the lens of history as a missed chance to redefine another industry.

It evokes the question: Could Apple have mirrored Tesla's success in revolutionizing the automotive industry had it embraced the same level of audacity and vision that Musk demonstrated? The answer is yes, but Apple reverted to its core strengths, which it has had obvious success. Perhaps it would've continued if the company were more desperate and needed a product to drive the stock price up and rattle the tech world. But Apple is doing just fine without cars.

While this could be considered a win for Tesla and other EV manufacturers, which have avoided a significant new competitor on the field, it may be a bit of a setback. Apple, like Tesla did, would’ve brought a refreshing take to the automotive industry. We can only imagine what the company had in store. Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. An Apple car would’ve helped that mission.

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NHTSA to Streamline Approvals for Control-Free Vehicles Like Tesla’s Cybercab

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In a letter to industry, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has announced that it is overhauling its approvals process for vehicles designed without human controls.

The change addresses a regulatory bottleneck that has slowed down American companies like Tesla from deploying purpose-built Robotaxis, rather than relying on using traditional vehicles with steering wheels and pedals. The policy shift is outlined in a letter posted to the NHTSA’s website, which you can find here.

Reducing Approvals From Years to Months

Under the existing rules today, any vehicle that is built without a steering wheel or brake pedals must receive a special exemption from federal safety standards.

Obtaining exemptions for a particular vehicle was a time-consuming process for both the companies requesting exemptions and the NHTSA. The process was often a black box—nobody knew when an exemption might be granted, and approvals could take years.

The NHTSA, under the new administration’s guidelines for autonomous vehicle development, is now committed to streamlining this process. The agency will be implementing a new, faster approach immediately for receiving exemptions for autonomous vehicles without standard controls. The NHTSA expects decisions on exemption requests to be determined within months rather than years. 

Accelerating the Cybercab

This change has massive implications for Tesla, which is banking on the production of the simplified and easy-to-maintain purpose-built Cybercab. The Cybercab is developed from the ground up as an autonomous Robotaxi and will be one of the key beneficiaries of this move by the NHTSA.

Knowing that a final design won't be caught in a multi-year regulatory limbo provides a level of certainty that has been missing. It allows Tesla to confidently plan the manufacturing, development, and deployment processes without worrying whether the project will get stuck in regulatory approvals.

According to the letter, the agency will publish its improved instructions for the streamlined process "shortly." With Tesla already having begun Cybercab pre-production and the goals for its deployment as soon as late 2026, there’s still a lot to be done to make autonomy a part of Tesla’s new sustainable abundance mission statement.

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You Can Now Track Tesla’s Robotaxi Deployment

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Thanks to Tesla Yoda on X, we have found out that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet is registered on the Texas Department of Transportation’s public-facing Automated Vehicle Deployment website. This makes the fleet’s movements publicly viewable and trackable, and marks a first for Tesla.

This isn’t just any old FSD test - this is the first officially acknowledged, government-tracked, and sanctioned deployment of a Tesla Model Y operating as a ride-share vehicle. But that’s not all - Texas DOT’s tracker notes that the Tesla does not have a safety driver.

View on the Map

Visitors to the Texas DOT website can filter for “Tesla”, and see, currently, a single active vehicle operating in the Austin Metro area. According to the state’s official data, here’s what we know:

Company: Tesla

Description: Ride-share service

Status in Texas: Testing

Safety Driver: No

The final point is definitely the most interesting here. While Tesla has been testing FSD with safety drivers for some time in Austin and LA for employee-only testing, this is the first time that a vehicle has been officially registered and deployed on public roads without a human behind the wheel for safety. 

The fact that there is no safety driver officially shifts the liability from the occupant of the driver’s seat to Tesla, for the first time in a public setting. That’s already pretty significant - we previously dove into how Tesla plans to insure its own vehicles, and potentially owner vehicles in the Robotaxi fleets. 

The status currently lists Tesla as “Testing,” confirming that the service isn’t available to the public, but this is expected to change in the coming weeks.

This testing phase is likely part of a short but crucial period that lets Tesla capture data on the safety levels of its current iteration of Unsupervised FSD without a driver supervising. Tesla already stated that they’d be avoiding difficult areas, so this testing can also expose additional areas Tesla may want to avoid, such as school zones or blind driveways.

Tesla will need to prove, both internally and externally, that FSD Unsupervised has the necessary performance to safely navigate the streets without any incidents.

Regulatory Milestone

For years, the concept of a Tesla Robotaxi has been a future promise. Now, it's a present-day reality, albeit in a testing capacity.

Having an official government body list a Tesla as an active, driverless vehicle shows that they’ve been able to clear regulatory hurdles, which Tesla has often pointed to as the issue. It demonstrates a level of confidence from both Tesla and Texas regulators in the system's capabilities.

While it's just a single vehicle for today, we’ll likely see this list slowly expand over time. Alongside being able to track Robotaxi incidents at the City of Austin’s website, we’ll be able to closely watch Tesla’s progress with its first Robotaxi deployments.

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