Andrej Karpathy, former Tesla Autopilot Director, offers a fascinating perspective on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by drawing parallels with the evolution of self-driving technology. As the world grapples with the implications of AGI, Karpathy suggests that the trajectory of autonomous vehicles provides valuable insights into what AGI might entail and its impact on society.
The blog post has since been deleted, but you can still check it out here; Karpathy defines AGI as an autonomous system exceeding human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. This definition hinges on two criteria: complete autonomy and broad economic applicability. According to Karpathy, the journey of self-driving technology exemplifies the societal dynamics of increasing automation and, by extension, AGI's potential evolution.
The Gradual Rise of Automation
Self-driving technology stands out due to its high visibility, significant economic footprint, large human workforce, and the complex challenge of automating driving. Unlike other sectors that have seen automation, the path to self-driving is a prime example of AGI's characteristics: accessibility, economic importance, workforce impact, and technical challenge.
Karpathy outlines the gradual development of driving automation. Initially, vehicles featured Level 2 driver assistance, where AI collaborates with humans in navigation, handling many low-level driving aspects while allowing human intervention. This partial automation is analogous to AI tools in various industries, like GitHub Copilot in programming, highlighting the incremental nature of AI advancement.
The leap to full automation, as seen in Waymo's driverless cars, marks a significant milestone. In cities like San Francisco, Waymo offers autonomous rides in a small, geo-fenced area, however, it helps showcase a future where AI will surpass human driving abilities. The transition to full autonomy will depend on public awareness, trust, preferences, and supply constraints in creating a large automated fleet.
Global Expansion: Challenges and Opportunities
The globalization of full automation, Karpathy notes, is a gradual, resource-intensive process. Waymo's current limitations to specific cities illustrate the challenges of expanding automated services, including adapting to local conditions and regulations. This expansion mirrors the broader trajectory of AGI deployment across various sectors, where scalability is both achievable and gradual.
Society's reaction to self-driving technology parallels AGI's potential impact. Despite significant advancements, public awareness and acceptance vary. Some view autonomous vehicles with curiosity and skepticism, while others adapt quickly. This range of responses suggests how society might adapt to AGI in various industries.
Economically, self-driving technology has both eliminated and created jobs. While driver roles are phased out, new positions in data labeling, remote support, fleet maintenance, and sensor technology emerge. This transformation reflects the broader economic implications of AGI, where work is not merely eliminated but refactored and reshaped.
The competitive landscape in self-driving technology, with companies like Waymo, Tesla, and others, mirrors the expected consolidation in AGI-related industries. As with self-driving, only a few companies may dominate the AGI space after an initial burst of growth and competition.
Karpathy envisions AGI as a gradual, society-involved evolution rather than a sudden, uncontrollable leap. Just as self-driving technology is transforming transportation, making it safer and more efficient, AGI promises to reshape various sectors.
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Tesla has begun to reach out to customers in the United States and is offering demo drives of the Cybertruck on an invite-only basis. @brandonhd on X shared the first invite image, and it looks like it's going out quite quickly to multiple locations that have Cybertrucks on display.
Up until now, display vehicles have been for just that – looking, but no touching. Some Tesla delivery centers and showrooms have also allowed viewers to take a seat inside and open it up, but most are still locked away behind the velvet rope.
It’s exciting to see that Tesla has begun to demo them – and it can only be so long until demo drives open up to everyone.
Advisor-led Demo
This Demo Drive is led by a Tesla Advisor – while you’re driving, the advisor will be in the passenger seat, walking you through the experience. They’ll explain steer-by-wire, off-road controls, and will introduce new-to-Tesla buyers to all the features that are currently available.
The list of locations so far for demo drives appears to be fairly limited, but we will hopefully see demo drives roll out throughout the United States, and eventually Canada too. Here is the current list of city/state locations that have seen demo drive invites.
Actually Smart Summon, the successor to Tesla’s Smart Summon feature, has been confirmed to be coming as soon as next month as per Elon Musk. Colloquially known as “ASS”, Actually Smart Summon is supposed to improve on the regular Smart Summon capabilities, which have historically used ultrasonic sensors (USS) to navigate parking lots.
We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon, and we’re quite excited about what other features will be unlocked once it finally shows up at our doorstep.
Vision-based Improvements
ASS is supposed to bring Smart Summon to vehicles that don’t have USS – using Tesla Vision. Most recently, Tesla has brought Autopark to vehicles without USS, and Vision-based Autopark has been a huge success. It is faster, more reliable, and smoother than the older USS-based solution. It can also park and maneuver in tighter locations.
Today, Smart Summon is sometimes useful at best, usually a party trick, or downright dangerous at worst. It’s excellent and best used in straight lines, where you have a clear line of sight of the vehicle, and can stop it if doesn’t see an obstacle.
I used Smart Summon today, just before writing this article – my 2022 Model Y (with USS) – did manage to show up just fine – in a straight-line location from where I was parked, after exiting the parking spot fairly cleanly. However, I’ve previously used Smart Summon and have had the vehicle turn towards obstacles, such as cart returns or curbs. Overall, it’s a sometimes-useful feature that has a lot of drawbacks right now.
Smart Summon is also restricted to a certain distance – and it's pretty small. The max distance is shorter than most parking lots, being only about 215 ft (65m). If you’re lucky enough to park close, it's very useful to bring your car right to you.
Actually Smart Summon
ASS will bring FSD V12-like capabilities to Smart Summon – the vehicle will primarily use Vision to drive toward you (or the location you’ve indicated). ASS has been supposed to be coming since about September 2022 and has seen many delays – we’re almost at the 2-year point today.
We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon being able to bring the vehicle – safely – right to you. ASS is also one of the key steps towards bringing some other cool features that Elon Musk has previously mentioned – Park Seek and Banish Autopark.
We’re also hopeful that Actually Smart Summon will increase the maximum range a vehicle can be summoned, because the current range is fairly small. Alongside Park Seek and Banish Autopark, we’re closing in on a Robotaxi-based future.
Park Seek and Banish Autopark
When the FSD v12.4 showed up, Elon also mentioned that going forward, vehicles would automatically park themselves when arriving in a parking lot – Park Seek – and that if you got out of the car at the entrance to a business, you could get it to automatically park itself in the parking lot – Banish Autopark. These are two features that are needed for Robotaxi to work – which itself is delayed to October 10th of this year. We’re looking quite forward to them – as in combination with Actually Smart Summon, Tesla has reached the cusp of vehicle autonomy.
A vehicle that arrives, driverless, at the location you’re at, then drives somewhere, parks itself there, and waits for you – is the definition of a Robotaxi.
While we’re likely to have to wait for Banish Autopark and Park Seek just a bit longer, Actually Smart Summon being around the corner is exciting! Gone will be the days of having to run out to your car when you forgot your umbrella – your car will just come right to you instead.
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