Former Tesla FSD Leader, Karpathy, Offers Glimpse into the Future of Artificial General Intelligence

By Kevin Armstrong
Karpathy on AGI
Karpathy on AGI

Andrej Karpathy, former Tesla Autopilot Director, offers a fascinating perspective on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by drawing parallels with the evolution of self-driving technology. As the world grapples with the implications of AGI, Karpathy suggests that the trajectory of autonomous vehicles provides valuable insights into what AGI might entail and its impact on society.

The blog post has since been deleted, but you can still check it out here; Karpathy defines AGI as an autonomous system exceeding human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. This definition hinges on two criteria: complete autonomy and broad economic applicability. According to Karpathy, the journey of self-driving technology exemplifies the societal dynamics of increasing automation and, by extension, AGI's potential evolution.

The Gradual Rise of Automation

Self-driving technology stands out due to its high visibility, significant economic footprint, large human workforce, and the complex challenge of automating driving. Unlike other sectors that have seen automation, the path to self-driving is a prime example of AGI's characteristics: accessibility, economic importance, workforce impact, and technical challenge.

Karpathy outlines the gradual development of driving automation. Initially, vehicles featured Level 2 driver assistance, where AI collaborates with humans in navigation, handling many low-level driving aspects while allowing human intervention. This partial automation is analogous to AI tools in various industries, like GitHub Copilot in programming, highlighting the incremental nature of AI advancement.

The leap to full automation, as seen in Waymo's driverless cars, marks a significant milestone. In cities like San Francisco, Waymo offers autonomous rides in a small, geo-fenced area, however, it helps showcase a future where AI will surpass human driving abilities. The transition to full autonomy will depend on public awareness, trust, preferences, and supply constraints in creating a large automated fleet.

Global Expansion: Challenges and Opportunities

The globalization of full automation, Karpathy notes, is a gradual, resource-intensive process. Waymo's current limitations to specific cities illustrate the challenges of expanding automated services, including adapting to local conditions and regulations. This expansion mirrors the broader trajectory of AGI deployment across various sectors, where scalability is both achievable and gradual.

Society's reaction to self-driving technology parallels AGI's potential impact. Despite significant advancements, public awareness and acceptance vary. Some view autonomous vehicles with curiosity and skepticism, while others adapt quickly. This range of responses suggests how society might adapt to AGI in various industries.

Economically, self-driving technology has both eliminated and created jobs. While driver roles are phased out, new positions in data labeling, remote support, fleet maintenance, and sensor technology emerge. This transformation reflects the broader economic implications of AGI, where work is not merely eliminated but refactored and reshaped.

The competitive landscape in self-driving technology, with companies like Waymo, Tesla, and others, mirrors the expected consolidation in AGI-related industries. As with self-driving, only a few companies may dominate the AGI space after an initial burst of growth and competition.

Karpathy envisions AGI as a gradual, society-involved evolution rather than a sudden, uncontrollable leap. Just as self-driving technology is transforming transportation, making it safer and more efficient, AGI promises to reshape various sectors.

Musk Teases New Model for Early 2025 That Will Use a Mix of Next-Gen and Current Platforms

By Cláudio Afonso

“We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025”. This was one of the key sentences that were part of Tesla’s deck shared on Tuesday directly before its financial results.

Since Reuters’ report a few weeks ago saying Tesla had “scrapped” the highly expected cheaper model— which Elon quickly denied on X —retail and institutional shareholders started asking for more details on Tesla’s product roadmap for 2024 and beyond.

In the earnings conference call, Elon Musk reiterated that Tesla expects to launch the next model in “early 2025, if not late this year”.

“We've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of previously mentioned start of production in the second half of 2025. So, we expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year. “

Over concerns of temporary production halts to update the factories for these new models, Musk said that Tesla will produce new models with certain aspects from their next-generation platform and current models. This will reduce the number of changes needed on production lines and allow Tesla not only to ramp up production faster but also to get the vehicles to market quicker.

Model Y Redesign

Tesla appears to hit that their next-gen vehicle will be less “next-gen” than they were initially aiming for, but to get a new vehicle out the door by late 2024, the process would already have to be in motion. Tesla may likely be referring to the redesigned Model Y, which is expected to reuse many parts from the new Model 3. Earlier this year, Tesla said that the redesigned Model Y will not be released this year, so it makes sense that they’re looking to speed up that production.

Tesla CEO concluded by saying that these measures will allow Tesla to reach a capacity of over 3 million units. Tesla produced 1.84 million vehicles in 2023. However, this year they’re ramping up Cybertruck production and introduced the new Model 3 into new markets.

And we think this should allow us to get to over 3 million vehicles of capacity when realized to the full extent.

Tesla reported on Tuesday its earnings results followed by a conference call where it teased its upcoming Robotaxi and its next-generation platform saying its “purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary ‘unboxed’ manufacturing strategy”.

Earlier in the day, Tesla announced the new Performance variant of its sedan Model 3 with deliveries in the United States starting already next month. The new version starts at $45,490 (after applying the $7,500 Federal EV tax credit) and goes from 0 to 60mph in 2.9 seconds.

Tesla on FSD: Close to License Deal With Major Automaker, Announces Miles Driven on FSD v12

By Cláudio Afonso

On Tuesday Tesla reported its earnings results followed by a conference call that brought several updates on the company’s roadmap for future vehicles, autonomous driving, Optimus and much more.

While answering a question from Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney about updates on the licensing of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Elon Musk said they’re talking to one major auto manufacturer and there’s “a good chance” the company signs the first deal before year-end. However, he went on to say that it would probably be three years before the necessary changes are integrated into the car.

I think we have a good chance we do sign a deal this year

Brings Benefits to Tesla

The technology would require other automakers to start using the same cameras and hardware as Tesla, meaning that Tesla may not only generate money from licensing FSD but also from selling the hardware itself. However, there would be other benefits as well. When licensing FSD, Tesla would likely own the data gathered with the system well, further helping them with data and edge cases that need to be solved to reach full autonomy.

people don't understand all cars will need to be smart cars… Once that becomes obvious, I think licensing becomes not optional.

Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja commented pointing out that future partners “take a lot of time in their product life cycle” resulting in a gap between the deal signing and the arrival in the market of Tesla’s FSD software.

Miles Driven With FSD

On the conference call, Musk added that Tesla now has over 300 million miles that have been driven with FSD v12 since it was launched just last month. He added that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.

Tesla said it will continue to increase its “core AI infrastructure capacity in the coming months” adding that in the first quarter, it completed the transition to hardware 4.0 with China now receiving the upgraded FSD computer and cameras.

Over the weekend, Tesla reduced the price of FSD dropping it from $12,000 to $8,000 for customers in the United States and from CA$16,000 to CA$11,000 in Canada.

Earlier this month, Tesla implemented a 50% price reduction for FSD subscriptions in the U.S. and introduced the subscription model in Canada at a great value of CA$99 per month.

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