Andrej Karpathy, former Tesla Autopilot Director, offers a fascinating perspective on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by drawing parallels with the evolution of self-driving technology. As the world grapples with the implications of AGI, Karpathy suggests that the trajectory of autonomous vehicles provides valuable insights into what AGI might entail and its impact on society.
The blog post has since been deleted, but you can still check it out here; Karpathy defines AGI as an autonomous system exceeding human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. This definition hinges on two criteria: complete autonomy and broad economic applicability. According to Karpathy, the journey of self-driving technology exemplifies the societal dynamics of increasing automation and, by extension, AGI's potential evolution.
The Gradual Rise of Automation
Self-driving technology stands out due to its high visibility, significant economic footprint, large human workforce, and the complex challenge of automating driving. Unlike other sectors that have seen automation, the path to self-driving is a prime example of AGI's characteristics: accessibility, economic importance, workforce impact, and technical challenge.
Karpathy outlines the gradual development of driving automation. Initially, vehicles featured Level 2 driver assistance, where AI collaborates with humans in navigation, handling many low-level driving aspects while allowing human intervention. This partial automation is analogous to AI tools in various industries, like GitHub Copilot in programming, highlighting the incremental nature of AI advancement.
The leap to full automation, as seen in Waymo's driverless cars, marks a significant milestone. In cities like San Francisco, Waymo offers autonomous rides in a small, geo-fenced area, however, it helps showcase a future where AI will surpass human driving abilities. The transition to full autonomy will depend on public awareness, trust, preferences, and supply constraints in creating a large automated fleet.
Global Expansion: Challenges and Opportunities
The globalization of full automation, Karpathy notes, is a gradual, resource-intensive process. Waymo's current limitations to specific cities illustrate the challenges of expanding automated services, including adapting to local conditions and regulations. This expansion mirrors the broader trajectory of AGI deployment across various sectors, where scalability is both achievable and gradual.
Society's reaction to self-driving technology parallels AGI's potential impact. Despite significant advancements, public awareness and acceptance vary. Some view autonomous vehicles with curiosity and skepticism, while others adapt quickly. This range of responses suggests how society might adapt to AGI in various industries.
Economically, self-driving technology has both eliminated and created jobs. While driver roles are phased out, new positions in data labeling, remote support, fleet maintenance, and sensor technology emerge. This transformation reflects the broader economic implications of AGI, where work is not merely eliminated but refactored and reshaped.
The competitive landscape in self-driving technology, with companies like Waymo, Tesla, and others, mirrors the expected consolidation in AGI-related industries. As with self-driving, only a few companies may dominate the AGI space after an initial burst of growth and competition.
Karpathy envisions AGI as a gradual, society-involved evolution rather than a sudden, uncontrollable leap. Just as self-driving technology is transforming transportation, making it safer and more efficient, AGI promises to reshape various sectors.
Subscribe
Subscribe to our newsletter to stay up to date on the latest Tesla news, upcoming features and software updates.
Tesla is holding its 2025 Q1 earnings call today at 2:30 pm PT / 5:30 pm ET / 9:30 pm UTC. The earnings call will be followed by a Q&A session with Tesla executives, including Elon Musk.
We expect the focus to be on Tesla sales for the quarter, FSD Unsupservised and the Robotaxi network. Tesla may also discuss its upcoming, more affordable model, Optimus, and other products.
Listen Live
The event will be live-streamed on Tesla’s site. It is also expected to be streamed on X and YouTube like it has been in the past. Tesla has changed this from an Earnings Call to a Company Update, but it’s unclear whether the phrase change holds any significance in what will be shared.
Update: You can listen to Tesla’s earnings call live below. If you prefer, you can also listen live on Tesla’s website.
Start Time
Tesla's live stream starts at 2:30 pm PT, which is the following times around the world:
2:30 pm Pacific Time
5:30 pm Eastern Time
10:30 pm UTC
10:30 pm - London, England
11:30 pm - Berlin, Germany
9:30 am (April 23rd) - Sydney, Australia
Q&A Questions
The questions asked during the Q&A portion of the call come directly from investors. These are currently the top-voted questions, so we’ll likely see answers to several of these questions:
What are the highest risk items on the critical path to robotaxi launch and scaling?
When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?
Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?
Does Tesla see robotaxi as a winner-take-most market, and as you approach the Austin launch, how do you expect to compare against Waymo’s offering, especially regarding pricing, geofencing and regulatory flexibility?
Can you please provide an update on the unboxed method and how that is progressing?
How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?
Does Tesla still have a battery supply constraint (noted on Q4 ER call) and how does this change w/tariffs?
Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?
Regarding the Tesla Optimus pilot line, could you confirm if it is currently operational? If so, what is the current production rate of Optimus bots per week? Additionally, how might the recent tariffs impact the scalability of this production line moving forward?
Robotaxi still on track for this year?’
Look Back at 2025 Q1 Numbers
Most of Tesla’s Q1 deliveries, 323,800 units, were unsurprisingly for the Model 3 and Model Y, while the “Other Models” category (including the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X) accounted for 12,881 deliveries.
Comparing these numbers to Q1 2024, the Model 3/Y is down about 13%, while the Model S/X and Cybertruck are down about 24%.
In terms of production, Tesla built 345,454 Model 3/Y vehicles and 17,161 from its “Other Models” line. The company attributed the production drop to the Model Y changeover but stated that the ramp is “going well.” However, deliveries and production were both down year over year.
Q1 2025
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Model 3/Y Deliveries
323,800
369,783
471,930
Model 3/Y Production
345,454
412,376
436,718
Other Models Deliveries
12,881
17,027
23,640
Other Models Production
17,161
20,995
22,727
Total Deliveries
336,681
386,810
495,570
Total Production
362,615
433,371
459,445
Although Tesla doesn’t officially break down its numbers by region, Troy Teslike, who closely monitors Tesla's delivery and production numbers has provided estimates that show Tesla’s deliveries across regions. Tesla delivered the most vehicles in China this past quarter, so it’ll be interesting to see if this trend continues.
His estimates for the regional break down are below:
Tesla’s Giga Texas factory usually gives us the first site of Tesla’s upcoming products. We first saw the Cybertruck and Model Y castings here. With Giga Texas being one of Tesla’s largest factories, it’s logical that most products would originate here.
Tesla has also stated that it intends to manufacture the Cybercab, Semi, the next-generation vehicle, and Optimus at Giga Texas over the coming years. The affordable vehicle and Cybercab were originally intended to be manufactured at Giga Mexico, but the plans for that facility were waylaid by changes in economic policy.
Robotaxi Castings
These new castings were spotted by Joe Tegtmeyer, who regularly does drone flights of Giga Texas. Joe pointed out that these castings don’t look like the usual Model Y or Cybertruck castings usually seen outside Giga Texas.
With an eagle eye, @minusYCore on X also spotted some interesting text on the frames holding the castings up. In particular, the castings say “RTTX050” and “W68-RSF AS-CAST”. These could be interpreted as ‘Robotaxi Texas’ and ‘Rear SubFrame,’ as Tesla marks Cybertruck castings as “CTTX.” The as-cast portion indicates that these particular castings haven’t been trimmed yet, according to the X user.
The castings laid out.
@JoeTegtmeyer
The size and shape of these castings—combined with rumors that Tesla’s more affordable vehicle has been delayed—suggest that these castings are intended for the Cybercab.
These castings are much flatter and appear to be a different size than the castings found throughout Giga Texas, indicating that they are intended for an entirely different product.
It’s possible that these are the first castings used by Tesla to test their unboxed assembly process, which the Cybercab is expected to rely on. If you take a closer look at the video below, you’ll note that these new castings look very similar to the ones in the unboxed assembly video.
Interestingly, Tesla did say that they don’t intend to have the Cybercab available for customers before late 2026 or early 2027, but we’ll likely hear updated timelines as Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call tomorrow.
A more vertical look at the castings.
@JoeTegtmeyer
New Giga Presses
To top it all off, new parts for a Giga Press - the machine Tesla uses to make these castings - were also sighted in Texas. These machines are few and far between, and each one is highly specialized for the particular vehicle it produces. Seeing new parts coming in usually indicates that a new assembly line is under construction, or that changes are being made to an existing line to either expand it or update it.
There’s a lot happening and we will hopefully know more tomorrow evening.
![Tesla's 2025 Q1 Earnings Call: How to Listen [Stream Links Added]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/img/containers/article_images/multiple-models/group_81.jpg/b2695a53b51e4c7927802deba2534b09/group_81.jpg)
_300w.png)
![Tesla’s Hollywood Diner: In-Car Controls & Theater Screens Turned On [VIDEO]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/img/containers/article_images/2025/tesla-diner.webp/3aaa2ea0edf2eaa0fabe1217530f3476/tesla-diner.jpg)
