In Tesla's third-quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk discussed the challenges and anticipations surrounding the Cybertruck, arguably Tesla's most anticipated vehicle. Here are the major takeaways.
"We Dug Our Grave"
In a candid moment, Musk admitted, "We dug our grave for Cybertruck." This poignant statement underscores the formidable challenges Tesla faces in producing this revolutionary vehicle. Musk described the Cybertruck as a rare gem, a product that comes along "once in a long while." Such unique products are inherently difficult to scale, bring to market, and ensure profitability.
Musk was emphatic about the hurdles Tesla faces with the Cybertruck. "There will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck," he said. He attributed these challenges to the vehicle's innovative technology and its vast differences compared to other vehicles.
Making a distinction between creating and mass-producing a prototype, Musk remarked, "Prototypes are easy; production is hard." Emphasizing the immense difficulty of the latter, he pointed out that it's "10,000% harder to get to volume production than to make a prototype."
Musk drew on his extensive experience, mentioning that reaching volume and prosperity would require immense "blood, sweat, and tears." While he's faced similar challenges with other Tesla vehicles, the Cybertruck presents its unique set of challenges.
Cybertruck Preorders & Annual Production
While Musk labeled the Cybertruck as potentially Tesla's "best product ever," he was clear about the financial trajectory. He estimates it may take "a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cash flow contributor." He noted that the demand for the Cybertruck isn't an issue, with over "1 million people who've reserved the car." The challenge lies in producing it at an affordable price.
When asked about delivery expectations for 2024, Musk's response was cautiously optimistic. He admitted the difficulty of making accurate predictions due to the radical nature of the Cybertruck. "If you want to do something radical and innovative...it is extremely difficult because there's nothing to copy," Musk stated. However, he gave a ballpark figure, projecting that by 2025, Tesla would achieve a production rate of "roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year."
Unofficial Specifications
Since its 2019 debut, the Cybertruck's specs have shifted. Influenced by rivals like Rivian R1T and Ford F-150 Lightning, Tesla adjusted dimensions. Initially 232 inches long and 80 inches wide, recent enthusiasts' measurements suggest a width of 78 inches, closer to Tesla's Model S.
Delivery Event
Amid spec uncertainties, the Cybertruck remains a hotly anticipated vehicle. Musk's frank discussion paints a picture of the hurdles ahead. However, Tesla announced its Cybertruck delivery event on November 30th at Giga Texas.
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Tesla has begun to reach out to customers in the United States and is offering demo drives of the Cybertruck on an invite-only basis. @brandonhd on X shared the first invite image, and it looks like it's going out quite quickly to multiple locations that have Cybertrucks on display.
Up until now, display vehicles have been for just that – looking, but no touching. Some Tesla delivery centers and showrooms have also allowed viewers to take a seat inside and open it up, but most are still locked away behind the velvet rope.
It’s exciting to see that Tesla has begun to demo them – and it can only be so long until demo drives open up to everyone.
Advisor-led Demo
This Demo Drive is led by a Tesla Advisor – while you’re driving, the advisor will be in the passenger seat, walking you through the experience. They’ll explain steer-by-wire, off-road controls, and will introduce new-to-Tesla buyers to all the features that are currently available.
The list of locations so far for demo drives appears to be fairly limited, but we will hopefully see demo drives roll out throughout the United States, and eventually Canada too. Here is the current list of city/state locations that have seen demo drive invites.
Actually Smart Summon, the successor to Tesla’s Smart Summon feature, has been confirmed to be coming as soon as next month as per Elon Musk. Colloquially known as “ASS”, Actually Smart Summon is supposed to improve on the regular Smart Summon capabilities, which have historically used ultrasonic sensors (USS) to navigate parking lots.
We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon, and we’re quite excited about what other features will be unlocked once it finally shows up at our doorstep.
Vision-based Improvements
ASS is supposed to bring Smart Summon to vehicles that don’t have USS – using Tesla Vision. Most recently, Tesla has brought Autopark to vehicles without USS, and Vision-based Autopark has been a huge success. It is faster, more reliable, and smoother than the older USS-based solution. It can also park and maneuver in tighter locations.
Today, Smart Summon is sometimes useful at best, usually a party trick, or downright dangerous at worst. It’s excellent and best used in straight lines, where you have a clear line of sight of the vehicle, and can stop it if doesn’t see an obstacle.
I used Smart Summon today, just before writing this article – my 2022 Model Y (with USS) – did manage to show up just fine – in a straight-line location from where I was parked, after exiting the parking spot fairly cleanly. However, I’ve previously used Smart Summon and have had the vehicle turn towards obstacles, such as cart returns or curbs. Overall, it’s a sometimes-useful feature that has a lot of drawbacks right now.
Smart Summon is also restricted to a certain distance – and it's pretty small. The max distance is shorter than most parking lots, being only about 215 ft (65m). If you’re lucky enough to park close, it's very useful to bring your car right to you.
Actually Smart Summon
ASS will bring FSD V12-like capabilities to Smart Summon – the vehicle will primarily use Vision to drive toward you (or the location you’ve indicated). ASS has been supposed to be coming since about September 2022 and has seen many delays – we’re almost at the 2-year point today.
We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon being able to bring the vehicle – safely – right to you. ASS is also one of the key steps towards bringing some other cool features that Elon Musk has previously mentioned – Park Seek and Banish Autopark.
We’re also hopeful that Actually Smart Summon will increase the maximum range a vehicle can be summoned, because the current range is fairly small. Alongside Park Seek and Banish Autopark, we’re closing in on a Robotaxi-based future.
Park Seek and Banish Autopark
When the FSD v12.4 showed up, Elon also mentioned that going forward, vehicles would automatically park themselves when arriving in a parking lot – Park Seek – and that if you got out of the car at the entrance to a business, you could get it to automatically park itself in the parking lot – Banish Autopark. These are two features that are needed for Robotaxi to work – which itself is delayed to October 10th of this year. We’re looking quite forward to them – as in combination with Actually Smart Summon, Tesla has reached the cusp of vehicle autonomy.
A vehicle that arrives, driverless, at the location you’re at, then drives somewhere, parks itself there, and waits for you – is the definition of a Robotaxi.
While we’re likely to have to wait for Banish Autopark and Park Seek just a bit longer, Actually Smart Summon being around the corner is exciting! Gone will be the days of having to run out to your car when you forgot your umbrella – your car will just come right to you instead.
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