Wait times for a Tesla have been drastically reduced
Tesla
Just in time for Christmas, Tesla's wait times are considerably shorter. Model S or Model X Plaid have estimated delivery dates from November to December, as do the Performance variants of the Model 3 and Model Y. So, there is plenty of time for Santa to drop one off in the driveway with a big bow. Not only that, but several areas also have Model Ys and Model 3s available right now.
It's in stark contrast to a few months ago when some buyers reported wait times of up to a year. This new situation could be viewed two ways. Tesla has achieved much better production times to keep those wait times lower, or demand has slowed for the vehicles.
Piecing together the company's headlines from the past year and you spot a few themes, production has been ramping up, there is now an abundance of batteries, and the shipping bottlenecks appear to be solved. The Model Y, which Elon Musk says will be the best-selling vehicle in the world in 2023, has been the focus of the Gigafactory in Texas. On October 30, the company tweeted Giga Texas had produced 20,000 Model Ys. The tweet came just 43 days after announcing the factory had reached 10,000.
In September, Tesla's vice president of investor relations gave a private presentation to Goldman Sachs. Martin Viecha was quoted by the Business Insider saying, "For the first time I can remember, we can access all the supply we need for both businesses." The businesses are vehicles and Powerwalls. So, getting the single most crucial component in an electric car is no issue.
However, dropping demand for several months to just a few weeks could also indicate fewer orders. The reigning king of the electric vehicle space has had a lot more company in the past year. Every automaker worldwide has been tripping over themselves announcing electric vehicles. Tesla had a ten-year head start on the competition, which started right after the first Model S was delivered in 2012. Now consumers have more choices, and some loyal to a brand can switch to electric while remaining with that same brand. While Tesla creates the best electric cars on Earth, they only have four models available to pick from, which may not fit everyone's needs.
Tesla has also recently stopped allowing buyers to hold off on an order when it's their turn to complete the purchase. You. used to be able to put off orders, but you're now limited to a one-time hold of up to seven days. At that point, you'll need to go through with the purchase or forfeit your place in line.
This change to Tesla's policy may also have played a role in reduced wait times.
Another factor that may be playing a role is the new U.S. tax credit that begins in 2023. Many reservation holders may be putting off their orders or canceling them in order to qualify for the upcoming tax credit.
While most vehicles are available within weeks, the Model 3 long-range is still unavailable for order. However, the website says it will be available in 2023. Keep in mind this doesn't include the Cybertruck, which will start to be delivered next year. Those wait times have been long.
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In this article, we’ll cover Tesla’s updates on Optimus, batteries, and Tesla Energy.
Optimus
Tesla has been working away on their humanoid robot and continues to make progress in software and hardware.
First, Tesla is preparing the Fremont factory for the Optimus pilot production line, which is scheduled for completion later this year. Once it is, wider deployments of Optimus for internal use within Tesla’s facilities are expected as well. Tesla aims to have several thousand Optimus units working in its North American factories by the end of the year once the pilot production line is operational.
Tesla’s goals for production remain extremely lofty - 1 million units per year by 2030. However, they could face some challenges when ramping production.
Key components like the shoulder actuators use specialized permanent and rare-earth magnets, which are currently sourced from China. Due to recent Chinese restrictions on the overseas sale of these magnets, Tesla is seeking an exemption or alternative suppliers. They have not yet looked into modifying the shoulder actuator but will likely do so if they cannot obtain the necessary materials.
Batteries
Batteries are another item that Tesla’s teams have been working on behind the scenes for years now. The second generation of the 4680 - the Cybercell - has been IRA-compliant for some time now. This means that the Cybertruck is eligible for the US Federal EV rebate.
Tesla also achieved the lowest cost-per-kWh of any of its cells with the 4680 battery - and it is potentially one of the cheapest cells being manufactured by any vehicle battery manufacturer at this point. With dry-cathode still being worked on, Tesla may be able to squeeze more optimizations and cost efficiencies from the 4680 cells.
Additionally, Tesla is progressing with its plans for lithium refining and cathode production in the US, both of which are scheduled to commence in 2025. While the company says they’re no longer supply-constrained for non-LFP vehicle batteries, on-shoring production and sourcing critical minerals from nations outside of China will be key.
LFP batteries continue to be supply-constrained, namely for the Tesla Energy division. LFP batteries and their materials are sourced from China. Due to tariffs and limited exports, Tesla can’t obtain enough and is considering potentially building an LFP production facility in North America.
Energy
Tesla’s energy division is still experiencing some of the highest growth of any of its divisions. Year over year, Tesla saw a 154% increase in energy storage deployments, including both Megapack and Powerwall - for a total of 10.4 GWh deployed in just Q1 2025. While deliveries in energy storage remain volatile due to the nature of Megapack installations, Tesla expects growth to continue rapidly in this segment.
Tesla also deployed 1GWh of Powerwall 3 residential storage this quarter, marking its strongest quarter. Powerwall 3 has received positive feedback from customers, many of whom appreciate its new capabilities with its built-in inverter for solar.
Megapack is continuing to see demand increases, currently highlighted by utility-scale Megapack systems, as well as data centers requiring stable power delivery. Megafactory Shanghai is also online now and producing Megapacks - with an annual production capacity of 20GWh today and up to 40GWh in the future. The site has also produced over 100 Megapacks this quarter, which are all awaiting delivery.
There was a lot of interesting news from Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call, covering everything from FSD and Robotaxi - to the less glamorous but equally important Megapack and Powerwall.
Tesla is heavily leaning into artificial intelligence, and its insurance offering is just another example of how it’s improving its product or lowering costs by leveraging AI.
Tesla recently started offering an insurance discount in select states when drivers use FSD for at least 50% of their drives and now it’s introducing an AI to help handle customer claims.
Tesla has developed an in-house voiced AI agent that can assist customers in handling simple support requests for Tesla Insurance.
For customers calling in from those states, the new AI agent provides a unique way to address the most common support calls. And it’s not just answering common questions but actually making requested changes to the owner’s account.
Policy Changes
The first key item is that it automates policy changes. Simple policy updates, including adjusting your deductible or coverage limits, are now done via AI. For policyholders who are simply looking to make quick changes and don’t have any questions, this makes the process a lot quicker by not having to wait for a representative. Tesla isn’t eliminating representatives, but this could reduce the number of representatives required or reduce wait times.
Continue Where You Left Off
The second item here, highlighted by Raj Jegannathan from Tesla’s internal IT team, is that Tesla’s AI agent is able to offer summaries of the user’s last interaction with Tesla Insurance. It will summarize your last interaction and provide assistance on that particular topic if you need to continue it. That means that you don’t have to wait for a human to review your file - the AI will kick off right where you left off.
Tesla appears to be focused on improving efficiency and making support more accessible. While actual items like claims are left up to humans due to their inherently complex nature, this helps free up employees to handle more complex items. While there’s no doubt Tesla will continue to develop this AI like they do everything else, we may soon see it take on even more tasks.
More AI
This isn’t the first AI agent that Tesla has demoed - there is now a chat-based AI sales agent available on the front page of Tesla’s website, which is able to answer common questions on Tesla vehicles.
Tesla has also been improving their AI support tool available in the Tesla App is able to provide feedback on common issues and also guide users towards either solving the problem or placing a support request.
Tesla’s strategy here is to influence the cost-heavy areas associated with having humans address simple requests and instead leverage AI, which can offer instant answers and reduce support costs.
Roll Out to More States
While this new AI is currently limited to just 12 states, it is likely to follow Tesla Insurance’s expansion. Insurance seems to have been at a bit of a standstill lately. Tesla continues to improve features such as the improvements to Safety Score V2.2, but we haven’t seen Tesla roll out support to new states since it added Minnesota in November of 2022.
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