Wait times for a Tesla have been drastically reduced
Tesla
Just in time for Christmas, Tesla's wait times are considerably shorter. Model S or Model X Plaid have estimated delivery dates from November to December, as do the Performance variants of the Model 3 and Model Y. So, there is plenty of time for Santa to drop one off in the driveway with a big bow. Not only that, but several areas also have Model Ys and Model 3s available right now.
It's in stark contrast to a few months ago when some buyers reported wait times of up to a year. This new situation could be viewed two ways. Tesla has achieved much better production times to keep those wait times lower, or demand has slowed for the vehicles.
Piecing together the company's headlines from the past year and you spot a few themes, production has been ramping up, there is now an abundance of batteries, and the shipping bottlenecks appear to be solved. The Model Y, which Elon Musk says will be the best-selling vehicle in the world in 2023, has been the focus of the Gigafactory in Texas. On October 30, the company tweeted Giga Texas had produced 20,000 Model Ys. The tweet came just 43 days after announcing the factory had reached 10,000.
In September, Tesla's vice president of investor relations gave a private presentation to Goldman Sachs. Martin Viecha was quoted by the Business Insider saying, "For the first time I can remember, we can access all the supply we need for both businesses." The businesses are vehicles and Powerwalls. So, getting the single most crucial component in an electric car is no issue.
However, dropping demand for several months to just a few weeks could also indicate fewer orders. The reigning king of the electric vehicle space has had a lot more company in the past year. Every automaker worldwide has been tripping over themselves announcing electric vehicles. Tesla had a ten-year head start on the competition, which started right after the first Model S was delivered in 2012. Now consumers have more choices, and some loyal to a brand can switch to electric while remaining with that same brand. While Tesla creates the best electric cars on Earth, they only have four models available to pick from, which may not fit everyone's needs.
Tesla has also recently stopped allowing buyers to hold off on an order when it's their turn to complete the purchase. You. used to be able to put off orders, but you're now limited to a one-time hold of up to seven days. At that point, you'll need to go through with the purchase or forfeit your place in line.
This change to Tesla's policy may also have played a role in reduced wait times.
Another factor that may be playing a role is the new U.S. tax credit that begins in 2023. Many reservation holders may be putting off their orders or canceling them in order to qualify for the upcoming tax credit.
While most vehicles are available within weeks, the Model 3 long-range is still unavailable for order. However, the website says it will be available in 2023. Keep in mind this doesn't include the Cybertruck, which will start to be delivered next year. Those wait times have been long.
Tesla has invested billions of dollars over the years toward vehicle autonomy. The mission continues as Elon Musk and Tesla now prepare to unveil their ride-hailing product, Robotaxi this August. Or, as Musk called it on Tuesday, Tesla CyberCab.
Early Days
Five years ago, during Tesla’s Autonomy Investor Day in April 2019, Elon Musk said he felt “very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla in the following year [2020]”. At the time, Musk added a bolder claim, predicting that Tesla wouldn’t even make cars with steering wheels or pedals by 2022. While timeliness may not be Musk’s strong suit, he has a track record for getting things done that others were unwilling to try or thought were impossible. Musk later admitted he can be overly optimistic and said “sometimes I am not on time, but I get it done.”
Now, 5 years later, we have the robotaxi unveiling scheduled for August 8th. After the release of FSD v12, it’s clear that we’re much closer to autonomy than we were in 2019, although FSD v12 is still a far cry from full autonomy.
While Tesla still has the robotaxi unveiling scheduled for August, Tesla announced yesterday that it’d be prioritizing a simpler “next-gen” model that could be released by early 2025.
Latest Updates
On the conference call, Musk added that Tesla now has over 300 million miles driven with FSD v12 since it was launched just last month. He added that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.
Tesla said it has been investing in the hardware and software ecosystems necessary to achieve vehicle autonomy and a ride-hailing service. The company is confident that it can establish a scalable and profitable autonomous driving business by employing a vision-only architecture.
think of it [Tesla] as combination of Airbnb and Uber meaning that there will be some number of cars that Tesla owns itself and operates
Tesla = Uber + AirBnb
Later on, Elon Musk unveiled that the new service will operate and result in a mix between Uber and Airbnb where the Tesla driver decides if and when he wants his Tesla to be used and by whom. Tesla stated:
“We believe the Tesla software experience is best-in-class across all our products, and plan to seamlessly layer ride-hailing into the Tesla App.”
Tesla’s CEO clarified that the owners will be able to add or remove their car from the fleet “whenever they want” adding that it will be up to them to decide if they want to only let the car be used “by friends and family or only by five-star users or by anyone at any time”. The flexible program will, just like Airbnb, allow the owners to take the car out of the market when they want.
The upcoming ride-hailing service will enable users to easily request a Tesla vehicle, control the car's temperature, monitor its real-time location, and adjust the audio system. The only question is when.
“We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025”. This was one of the key sentences that were part of Tesla’s deck shared on Tuesday directly before its financial results.
Since Reuters’ report a few weeks ago saying Tesla had “scrapped” the highly expected cheaper model— which Elon quickly denied on X —retail and institutional shareholders started asking for more details on Tesla’s product roadmap for 2024 and beyond.
In the earnings conference call, Elon Musk reiterated that Tesla expects to launch the next model in “early 2025, if not late this year”.
“We've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of previously mentioned start of production in the second half of 2025. So, we expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year. “
Over concerns of temporary production halts to update the factories for these new models, Musk said that Tesla will produce new models with certain aspects from their next-generation platform and current models. This will reduce the number of changes needed on production lines and allow Tesla not only to ramp up production faster but also to get the vehicles to market quicker.
Model Y Redesign
Tesla appears to hit that their next-gen vehicle will be less “next-gen” than they were initially aiming for, but to get a new vehicle out the door by late 2024, the process would already have to be in motion. Tesla may likely be referring to the redesigned Model Y, which is expected to reuse many parts from the new Model 3. Earlier this year, Tesla said that the redesigned Model Y will not be released this year, so it makes sense that they’re looking to speed up that production.
Tesla CEO concluded by saying that these measures will allow Tesla to reach a capacity of over 3 million units. Tesla produced 1.84 million vehicles in 2023. However, this year they’re ramping up Cybertruck production and introduced the new Model 3 into new markets.
And we think this should allow us to get to over 3 million vehicles of capacity when realized to the full extent.
Tesla reported on Tuesday its earnings results followed by a conference call where it teased its upcoming Robotaxi and its next-generation platform saying its “purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary ‘unboxed’ manufacturing strategy”.
Earlier in the day, Tesla announced the new Performance variant of its sedan Model 3 with deliveries in the United States starting already next month. The new version starts at $45,490 (after applying the $7,500 Federal EV tax credit) and goes from 0 to 60mph in 2.9 seconds.
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