Teslas charging via energy producting by solar panels
Tesla
Teslas, which make up the majority of electric vehicles, got caught in the crossfire during the September heatwave in California. As a result, owners of zero emissions cars were asked to limit when they plug in to charge. However, now that the emergency has passed and cooler heads have prevailed, several reports are surfacing showing how little EVs drain the electric grind. Spoiler alert, it's not much, and maybe less than you thought.
Let's start with California. According to Scientific American, EVs in that state account for: "less than 1 percent of the grid's total load during peak hours." California has more than 1 million electric cars, the most of any state in the U.S. But what about the drain caused by the other 26 million EVs worldwide? It's even lower.
A research branch of Bloomberg studies "trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy," published a report looking at the global situation. According to BloombergNEF, electric vehicles add around 0.2% to global energy demand. That accounts for 27 million electric passenger vehicles worldwide using 60 terawatt-hours annually.
BNEF zoomed in on a country well ahead of the curve on EV adoption. More than 20 percent of the cars on the road in Norway are plugging in, and these EVs are racking up more miles than ICE cars. Plus, nearly 80 percent of vehicles bought in 2021 in that country are electric. So indeed, the system cannot handle such a drain - right? It turns out EVs in Norway account for 1.4 percent of demand on the grid.
BNEF also crunched the numbers to forecast future consumption. It researched two scenarios for EVs in the next two to three decades. One deals with the main driver of EV growth being market demand. This situation assumes there will be 730 million electric passenger cars by 2040. If that were the case, these passenger vehicles would increase electricity demands by 7 percent. When adding other vehicles like buses and trucks, the demand would rise to 11 percent.
In the other scenario, the report assumes the world will be net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. In that case, there will be 1 billion EVs on the road, which would increase demand to 9 percent, and when adding in other vehicles, that number goes to 15. The report went even further. If every vehicle on the road were electric by 2050, the demand on the grid would be 27 percent.
With more people going electric, that demand will grow, and it is up to jurisdictions and utility providers to upgrade the system accordingly. Every country, state and city must plan for this growth to handle the EV revolution.
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In this article, we’ll cover Tesla’s updates on Optimus, batteries, and Tesla Energy.
Optimus
Tesla has been working away on their humanoid robot and continues to make progress in software and hardware.
First, Tesla is preparing the Fremont factory for the Optimus pilot production line, which is scheduled for completion later this year. Once it is, wider deployments of Optimus for internal use within Tesla’s facilities are expected as well. Tesla aims to have several thousand Optimus units working in its North American factories by the end of the year once the pilot production line is operational.
Tesla’s goals for production remain extremely lofty - 1 million units per year by 2030. However, they could face some challenges when ramping production.
Key components like the shoulder actuators use specialized permanent and rare-earth magnets, which are currently sourced from China. Due to recent Chinese restrictions on the overseas sale of these magnets, Tesla is seeking an exemption or alternative suppliers. They have not yet looked into modifying the shoulder actuator but will likely do so if they cannot obtain the necessary materials.
Batteries
Batteries are another item that Tesla’s teams have been working on behind the scenes for years now. The second generation of the 4680 - the Cybercell - has been IRA-compliant for some time now. This means that the Cybertruck is eligible for the US Federal EV rebate.
Tesla also achieved the lowest cost-per-kWh of any of its cells with the 4680 battery - and it is potentially one of the cheapest cells being manufactured by any vehicle battery manufacturer at this point. With dry-cathode still being worked on, Tesla may be able to squeeze more optimizations and cost efficiencies from the 4680 cells.
Additionally, Tesla is progressing with its plans for lithium refining and cathode production in the US, both of which are scheduled to commence in 2025. While the company says they’re no longer supply-constrained for non-LFP vehicle batteries, on-shoring production and sourcing critical minerals from nations outside of China will be key.
LFP batteries continue to be supply-constrained, namely for the Tesla Energy division. LFP batteries and their materials are sourced from China. Due to tariffs and limited exports, Tesla can’t obtain enough and is considering potentially building an LFP production facility in North America.
Energy
Tesla’s energy division is still experiencing some of the highest growth of any of its divisions. Year over year, Tesla saw a 154% increase in energy storage deployments, including both Megapack and Powerwall - for a total of 10.4 GWh deployed in just Q1 2025. While deliveries in energy storage remain volatile due to the nature of Megapack installations, Tesla expects growth to continue rapidly in this segment.
Tesla also deployed 1GWh of Powerwall 3 residential storage this quarter, marking its strongest quarter. Powerwall 3 has received positive feedback from customers, many of whom appreciate its new capabilities with its built-in inverter for solar.
Megapack is continuing to see demand increases, currently highlighted by utility-scale Megapack systems, as well as data centers requiring stable power delivery. Megafactory Shanghai is also online now and producing Megapacks - with an annual production capacity of 20GWh today and up to 40GWh in the future. The site has also produced over 100 Megapacks this quarter, which are all awaiting delivery.
There was a lot of interesting news from Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call, covering everything from FSD and Robotaxi - to the less glamorous but equally important Megapack and Powerwall.
Tesla is heavily leaning into artificial intelligence, and its insurance offering is just another example of how it’s improving its product or lowering costs by leveraging AI.
Tesla recently started offering an insurance discount in select states when drivers use FSD for at least 50% of their drives and now it’s introducing an AI to help handle customer claims.
Tesla has developed an in-house voiced AI agent that can assist customers in handling simple support requests for Tesla Insurance.
For customers calling in from those states, the new AI agent provides a unique way to address the most common support calls. And it’s not just answering common questions but actually making requested changes to the owner’s account.
Policy Changes
The first key item is that it automates policy changes. Simple policy updates, including adjusting your deductible or coverage limits, are now done via AI. For policyholders who are simply looking to make quick changes and don’t have any questions, this makes the process a lot quicker by not having to wait for a representative. Tesla isn’t eliminating representatives, but this could reduce the number of representatives required or reduce wait times.
Continue Where You Left Off
The second item here, highlighted by Raj Jegannathan from Tesla’s internal IT team, is that Tesla’s AI agent is able to offer summaries of the user’s last interaction with Tesla Insurance. It will summarize your last interaction and provide assistance on that particular topic if you need to continue it. That means that you don’t have to wait for a human to review your file - the AI will kick off right where you left off.
Tesla appears to be focused on improving efficiency and making support more accessible. While actual items like claims are left up to humans due to their inherently complex nature, this helps free up employees to handle more complex items. While there’s no doubt Tesla will continue to develop this AI like they do everything else, we may soon see it take on even more tasks.
More AI
This isn’t the first AI agent that Tesla has demoed - there is now a chat-based AI sales agent available on the front page of Tesla’s website, which is able to answer common questions on Tesla vehicles.
Tesla has also been improving their AI support tool available in the Tesla App is able to provide feedback on common issues and also guide users towards either solving the problem or placing a support request.
Tesla’s strategy here is to influence the cost-heavy areas associated with having humans address simple requests and instead leverage AI, which can offer instant answers and reduce support costs.
Roll Out to More States
While this new AI is currently limited to just 12 states, it is likely to follow Tesla Insurance’s expansion. Insurance seems to have been at a bit of a standstill lately. Tesla continues to improve features such as the improvements to Safety Score V2.2, but we haven’t seen Tesla roll out support to new states since it added Minnesota in November of 2022.
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