Tesla FSD will be pure vision and not rely on radar use

By Nuno Cristovao

Elon tweeted that v9 of the FSD beta would remove its reliance on radar completely and instead determine decisions based purely on vision. Humans don’t have radar after all, so it seems like a logical solution and tells us Tesla is feeling much more confident in their vision AI.

Tesla Vision AI

Radar and vision each have their advantages, but radar has thus far been much more reliable in detecting objects and determining speed. If you’ve ever noticed your Tesla being able to detect two vehicles in front of you when you can only see the one directly ahead of you, that’s radar at work.

In this situation the radio waves from the radar sensor are bouncing underneath the car in front of you and are able to continue traveling and detect that there is another object ahead even though it could never “see” it.

It really is one of those wow moments where you can feel the future and the ability for AI-powered cars to drive better than humans one day. It’s baby steps and slowly we’ll see more and more of these situations where the vehicle simply sees or does something we could never do.

There’s no doubting that more sensors could provide a more reliable and accurate interpretation of the real world as they each have their own advantages. In an ideal world a vehicle with radar, lidar, vision, ultrasonic sensors and even audio processing would provide the best solution. However, more sensors and systems come at a price, resulting in increased vehicle cost and system complexity.

After all humans are relatively safe drivers with two “cameras” and vision alone. If Tesla can completely solve vision, they’ll easily be able to achieve superhuman driving capabilities. Teslas have eight cameras, facing in all directions. They’re able to analyze all of them concurrently and make much more accurate interpretations then we ever could in the same amount of time.

Tristan on Twitter recently had some great insight into Tesla vision AI and how they’re going to replace radar. Here’s what Tristan had to say:

"We recently got some insight into how Tesla is going to replace radar in the recent firmware updates + some nifty ML model techniques

From the binaries we can see that they've added velocity and acceleration outputs. These predictions in addition to the existing xyz outputs give much of the same information that radar traditionally provides (distance + velocity + acceleration).

For autosteer on city streets, you need to know the velocity and acceleration of cars in all directions but radar is only pointing forward. If it's accurate enough to make a left turn, radar is probably unnecessary for the most part.

How can a neural network figure out velocity and acceleration from static images you ask?

They can't!

They've recently switched to something that appears to be styled on an Recurrent Neural Network.

Net structure is unknown (LSTM?) but they're providing the net with a queue of the 15 most recent hidden states. Seems quite a bit easier to train than normal RNNs which need to learn to encode historical data and can have issues like vanishing gradients for longer time windows.

The velocity and acceleration predictions is new, by giving the last 15 frames (~1s) of data I'd expect you can train a highly accurate net to predict velocity + acceleration based off of the learned time series.

They've already been using these queue based RNNs with the normal position nets for a few months presumably to improve stability of the predictions.

This matches with the recent public statements from Tesla about new models training on video instead of static images.

To evaluate the performance compared to radar, I bet Tesla has run some feature importance techniques on the models and radar importance has probably dropped quite a bit with the new nets. See tools like https://captum.ai for more info.

I still think that radar is going to stick around for quite a while for highway usage since the current camera performance in rain and snow isn't great.

NoA often disables in mild rain. City streets might behave better since the relative rain speed is lower.

One other nifty trick they've recently added is a task to rectify the images before feeding them into the neural nets.

This is a common in classical CV applications so surprised it only popped up in the last couple of months.

This makes a lot of sense since it means that the nets don't need to learn the lens distortion. It also likely makes it a lot easier for the nets to correlate objects across multiple cameras since the movement is now much more linear.

For more background on LSTMs (Long Short-Term Memory) see https://towardsdatascience.com/illustrated-guide-to-lstms-and-gru-s-a-step-by-step-explanation-44e9eb85bf21

They're tricky to train because they need to encode history which is fed into future runs. The more times you pass the state, the more the earlier frames is diluted hence "vanishing gradients".

Tesla’s FSD beta v9 will be a big improvement forward from what FSD beta users have been using where the system was still relying on radar. And it’ll be an even bigger leap from what non-beta testers currently have access to. We can’t wait. Now where’s that button?

Growing Interest in Electric Trucks Among Drivers, but Tesla Cybertruck Faces Skepticism

By Kevin Armstrong
Electric truck survey was completed by AmericanTrucks.com
Electric truck survey was completed by AmericanTrucks.com
AmericanTrucks.com

Oh, the irony! American truck drivers are all revved up for electric trucks, yet they can't wrap their heads around the idea that the Tesla Cybertruck is a "real" truck. Sounds like a classic case of a truck identity crisis!

A recent survey by American Trucks delved into the opinions of truck drivers in the United States about electric trucks, revealing a sizable number of them are considering going electric. However, an interesting finding from the survey is that many truck drivers don't see the Tesla Cybertruck as a "real" truck.

The survey aimed to gauge the excitement around electric pickup trucks and understand the preferences of both truck owners and non-truck owners. Electric vehicles have been gaining popularity, but electric pickup trucks have taken longer to enter the market. With more models becoming available, American Trucks sought to identify which ones generate the most interest.

Truck Drivers are Ready for Electric

According to the survey's results, 35% of truck drivers are thinking about transitioning to electric trucks within the next decade, with most planning to do so within the next five years. The electric pickup models that have captured their attention include the Ford F-150 Lightning, Tesla Cybertruck, Chevrolet Silverado EV, Toyota Tacoma EV, Rivian R1T, GMC Sierra EV, and Canoo Pickup Truck.

Drivers' slower adoption of electric trucks can be attributed to valid concerns. While range anxiety is becoming less of an issue for most passenger vehicles, it is still significant for truck drivers who use their vehicles for heavy-duty tasks like towing. Electric trucks' range can be affected under these conditions, leading to driver hesitancy.

Cybertruck Gets the Attention

Interestingly, when the survey shifted its focus to non-truck drivers, the Tesla Cybertruck emerged as the most anticipated electric pickup. This finding suggests a difference in perception between truck drivers and the general public, who might be more attracted to Cybertruck's futuristic design and unique features.

Despite the Cybertruck's popularity among non-truck drivers, 56% of the truck drivers surveyed don't believe it is a "real" truck. The reasons for this perception remain unclear, but it could be due to the unconventional design, the vehicle's specifications, or other factors that might not align with traditional truck drivers' expectations.

Electric truck survey was completed by AmericanTrucks.com
Electric truck survey was completed by AmericanTrucks.com
AmericanTrucks.com

Production Concerns

Tesla has announced plans to begin Cybertruck production this summer, but many truck drivers surveyed believe it will be at least two years before it becomes widely available. Their skepticism might also be influenced by Tesla's track record of production delays and the fact that there are already around a million reservations for the Cybertruck.

Truck drivers are seeking longer ranges, increased availability of charging stations, and faster charging times before they fully commit to switching to electric trucks. These factors play a crucial role in ensuring that electric trucks can be effectively used for work purposes, just as their gasoline-powered counterparts have been for years. It will be interesting to see how perceptions change and whether the Tesla Cybertruck can eventually win over the hearts of traditional truck drivers.

We recently covered how the Cybertruck is expected to have an 18.5" screen, rear-wheel steering and 18" wheels.

Tesla Model 3 Long Range Price Appears on Tesla's Website: Is It Set to Make a Comeback?

By Kevin Armstrong
Tesla's Model 3 Long Range may be set to make a comeback
Tesla's Model 3 Long Range may be set to make a comeback
Not a Tesla App

Tesla halted production of the immensely popular Model 3 Long Range last summer due to an overwhelming backlog of orders extending well into 2023. This move left customers with only the base, rear-wheel drive version and much more expensive performance version of the Model 3 available for purchase.

However, recent developments suggest that Tesla might soon begin accepting orders for the Model 3 Long Range once again. One of our readers, Jake Bercic, pointed out that the price of the Long Range Model 3 has appeared on a Canadian Tesla support page. The price appears among other Tesla models, which all reflect current pricing.

Update: It looks like Tesla has kept the Model 3 Long Range model on this support page, and they updated the pricing in January 2023.

The prices displayed on the Canadian support page for the Long Range Model 3 are:

Rear wheel drive: $54,990 CAD (this version in the US: $42,990)

Dual motor Long Range: $67,990 CAD (equal to approximately $49,700 USD)

Performance: $72,990 CAD (this version in the US: $53,990)

Project Highland and New Price

The possible return of the Model 3 Long Range comes amidst speculation of Tesla's Project Highland - the refreshed Model 3. We recently uncovered more details about Project Highland. The possible reintroduction of the Model 3 Long Range, coupled with Project Highland, could signal a new chapter in Tesla's EV dominance. By bringing back a highly sought-after model and potentially introducing a new and improved version, Tesla continues to demonstrate its commitment to innovation and meeting the increasing demand for electric vehicles.

The possible reintroduction of the Model 3 Long Range, coupled with Project Highland, could signal a new chapter in Tesla's EV dominance. By bringing back a highly sought-after model and potentially introducing a new and improved version, Tesla continues to demonstrate its commitment to innovation and meeting the increasing demand for electric vehicles.

Tax Credits

This development is particularly noteworthy, as the Model 3 Long Range's previous price of $57,990 USD, made it ineligible for the new US tax credit for electric cars. With the new regulation, a price cap of $55,000 applies to passenger car models, and $80,000 for SUVs and pickups. That means all Model 3's are eligible for the $7,500 tax credit.

The halt in Model 3 Long Range production came after Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned about potential order freezes due to a sharp increase in demand for electric cars in several regions of the United States. Musk had stated that once Tesla increased production, the model variant would return to the market. Now, it seems that the time for its return might be near.

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