Elon tweeted that v9 of the FSD beta would remove its reliance on radar completely and instead determine decisions based purely on vision. Humans don’t have radar after all, so it seems like a logical solution and tells us Tesla is feeling much more confident in their vision AI.
Radar and vision each have their advantages, but radar has thus far been much more reliable in detecting objects and determining speed. If you’ve ever noticed your Tesla being able to detect two vehicles in front of you when you can only see the one directly ahead of you, that’s radar at work.
In this situation the radio waves from the radar sensor are bouncing underneath the car in front of you and are able to continue traveling and detect that there is another object ahead even though it could never “see” it.
It really is one of those wow moments where you can feel the future and the ability for AI-powered cars to drive better than humans one day. It’s baby steps and slowly we’ll see more and more of these situations where the vehicle simply sees or does something we could never do.
There’s no doubting that more sensors could provide a more reliable and accurate interpretation of the real world as they each have their own advantages. In an ideal world a vehicle with radar, lidar, vision, ultrasonic sensors and even audio processing would provide the best solution. However, more sensors and systems come at a price, resulting in increased vehicle cost and system complexity.
After all humans are relatively safe drivers with two “cameras” and vision alone. If Tesla can completely solve vision, they’ll easily be able to achieve superhuman driving capabilities. Teslas have eight cameras, facing in all directions. They’re able to analyze all of them concurrently and make much more accurate interpretations then we ever could in the same amount of time.
Tristan on Twitter recently had some great insight into Tesla vision AI and how they’re going to replace radar. Here’s what Tristan had to say:
"We recently got some insight into how Tesla is going to replace radar in the recent firmware updates + some nifty ML model techniques
From the binaries we can see that they've added velocity and acceleration outputs. These predictions in addition to the existing xyz outputs give much of the same information that radar traditionally provides
(distance + velocity + acceleration).
For autosteer on city streets, you need to know the velocity and acceleration of cars in all directions but radar is only pointing forward. If it's accurate enough to make a left turn, radar is probably unnecessary for the most part.
How can a neural network figure out velocity and acceleration from static images you ask?
They can't!
They've recently switched to something that appears to be styled on an Recurrent Neural Network.
Net structure is unknown (LSTM?) but they're providing the net with a queue of the 15 most recent hidden states. Seems quite a bit easier to train than normal RNNs which need to learn to encode historical data and can have issues like vanishing gradients for longer time windows.
The velocity and acceleration predictions is new, by giving the last 15 frames (~1s) of data I'd expect you can train a highly accurate net to predict velocity + acceleration based off of the learned time series.
They've already been using these queue based RNNs with the normal position nets for a few months presumably to improve stability of the predictions.
This matches with the recent public statements from Tesla about new models training on video instead of static images.
To evaluate the performance compared to radar, I bet Tesla has run some feature importance techniques on the models and radar importance has probably dropped quite a bit with the new nets. See tools like https://captum.ai for more info.
I still think that radar is going to stick around for quite a while for highway usage since the current camera performance in rain and snow isn't great.
NoA often disables in mild rain. City streets might behave better since the relative rain speed is lower.
One other nifty trick they've recently added is a task to rectify the images before feeding them into the neural nets.
This is a common in classical CV applications so surprised it only popped up in the last couple of months.
This makes a lot of sense since it means that the nets don't need to learn the lens distortion. It also likely makes it a lot easier for the nets to correlate objects across multiple cameras since the movement is now much more linear.
For more background on LSTMs (Long Short-Term Memory) see https://towardsdatascience.com/illustrated-guide-to-lstms-and-gru-s-a-step-by-step-explanation-44e9eb85bf21
They're tricky to train because they need to encode history which is fed into future runs. The more times you pass the state, the more the earlier frames is diluted hence "vanishing gradients".
Tesla’s FSD beta v9 will be a big improvement forward from what FSD beta users have been using where the system was still relying on radar. And it’ll be an even bigger leap from what non-beta testers currently have access to. We can’t wait. Now where’s that button?
Almost ready with FSD Beta V9.0. Step change improvement is massive, especially for weird corner cases & bad weather. Pure vision, no radar.
It's only been a few days since Tesla officially announced the Model Y refresh, but we’re already finding out more. While deliveries won’t begin for at least another three months, there are plenty of things to get excited about.
We covered the Model Y Refresh in detail, but it is always worth it to take a moment and appreciate all the little things Tesla has included in this version of the Model Y.
Turn Signal Stalk & Steering Wheel
Not a Tesla App
First up is the return of the signal stalk. The Cybertruck and Model 3 Refresh both shipped without a signal stalk. Instead, the signals, as well as the wiper control, were located on the steering wheel.
For the Model 3, this was met with considerable pushback, given that it was a vehicle intended for the mass market rather than enthusiasts. While it's possible to get 3rd-party stalks for the Model 3 now, Tesla has clearly taken consumer sentiment to mind when refreshing the world’s best-selling vehicle.
With the Model Y Refresh, there’s a single turn signal stalk on the left side. Based on the photos, it appears that this may be a simpler stalk than we’ve seen in the past, as it doesn’t appear to have a button at the end. Given the headlights button on the steering wheel, it’s unlikely to move forward/back for high beams as well.
The steering wheel itself is very similar to the new Model 3 but with reduced buttons, thanks to the stalk. On the left side of the steering wheel you have buttons for the Wipers and High Beams. While on the right, it looks like there will be a button for Voice Commands (soon to be the smart assistant) and the rear/front camera.
There is no right stalk, so Autopilot and shift functionality is the same as the new Model 3, which means that you’ll be using the right scroll wheel and the screen for that functionality instead.
Rear Power Reclining Seats
The new Model Y is definitely aimed at families and those with lots of stuff to move. Tesla has put some good thought into this - and has added power reclining seating, which folds flat.
At the press of a button from the trunk or with a tap on either the front screen, the rear seats can be folded flat or raised up to their normal position. That’s definitely a helpful feature, especially if you’re trying to get something big into the trunk of your vehicle - and you need to drop the seats.
Now, a single-button press does the trick, which is super convenient. The ability to fold the seats flat is also new. In the previous Model Y, the seats folded mostly flat - and they’d squish down further if you put something heavy on them, but that could potentially damage the seats.
Rear Trunk / Lift Gate
@niccruzpatane
The vehicle’s lift gate has also received some upgrades. Instead of being a “single” piece, there’s now a seam between the sides and the tail of the trunk piece. This will likely make repairs much cheaper for light rear-end accidents or other light damage. Owners can opt to replace just the trim part of the trunk instead of having to replace the entire life gate.
The rear glass has also been updated. Instead of featuring a curved edge at the bottom, it’s now much more rectangular. This appears to be a cosmetic change or tied to the new seam location.
New Speaker Placement and Double Stitching
Not a Tesla App
The new Model Y includes new speaker placements on the doors. The speakers on the door have been moved up next to the door handle. Their integration feels a lot smoother, and they’re fitted with a metal grill instead of a plastic one.
The interior also features a lot more double stitching when compared to the new Model 3. You can see this on the dash, where this is a single piece on the Model 3. While it likely adds a little bit to the cost, it makes the vehicle look a lot more premium.
The ambient lighting is also slightly different, now only reaching half the length of the door — on the front and rear doors. However, the design is sleek and fits in nicely.
Not a Tesla App
To Tow, or Not to Tow
We initially reported that the Model Y Refresh doesn’t have a tow hitch. We still stand by this point, but others have pointed out that the openable slot for the tow hitch still seems to be present.
Tesla doesn’t show the tow hitch as an option on any of the Asia Pacific sites right now - so it seems that, at the very least, the Launch Edition will not include a tow hitch. It also doesn’t show up as a feature, and the maximum tow weight is not listed as a vehicle specification.
We’re hoping that this is either an oversight or that Tesla intends to bring the tow hitch to the market as a Tesla Store retrofit and then offer it for new vehicles sometime in the future. Towing is very popular on the Model Y, but many people also use the hitch for bike racks and luggage carriers - owing to the versatility of the Y as a do-everything vehicle.
New Wheels
Alongside all the fun new features - the Model Y also comes with a new set of 20” Helix 2.0 wheels. One interesting item of note is that there is no aero cover included with these wheels, at least for now. They’re probably already quite efficient and likely wouldn’t benefit too much from aero covers like the current generation Model Y’s wheels.
This likely won’t be the only wheel option - but it is the standard for the Launch Series. We’ll likely see a 21” performance wheel option once the Performance variant arrives, as well as a cheaper 19” wheel variant with aero covers.
However, the new Helix 2.0’s are some of Tesla’s best-looking wheels, in our opinion, so there is that too. 20” wheels are a good balance in terms of looking good and providing enough rubber to dampen sounds, vibrations, and bumps. Tesla also claims to have improved handling performance and comfort, so these new wheels likely contribute to the overall experience.
If you’ve managed to pick up on something we’ve overlooked for all the small stuff, let us know on social media or here on the forums.
Tesla’s US Sales were recently released in the Kelly Blue Book, which provides insight into vehicle sales in the domestic United States. It doesn’t cover Canada or any other international markets but provides a lot of data to analyze.
We’re going to look at Tesla’s sales here, analyze some trends, and make some observations.
Tesla Sales in the U.S.
We’re specifically looking at EV sales in the US - so let’s lay out how each of Tesla’s vehicles did. The table below shows the relative rank of the vehicle compared to all EVs available in the US market, the 2024 and 2023 sales figures, as well as the percentage change year over year.
Vehicle
Rank
2024 Sales
2023 Sales
YoY Change
Model Y
1
372,613
398,782
-6.6%
Model 3
2
189,903
230,015
-17.4%
Cybertruck
5
38,965
--
--
Model X
15
19,855
24,767
-19.8%
Model S
24
12,426
18,052
-31.2%
Lower Sales In U.S. Only
Overall, Tesla has seen a net shrink in the number of vehicles sold in the United States. This makes sense, especially as they reported similar findings in their 2024 Production and Delivery Numbers just recently. Surprisingly, the Model Y saw the lowest drop, even with the upcoming release of the refresh, while the Model 3 and Model X were hit pretty hard.
The worst of the bunch is the Model S, at an astounding -31.2% year-over-year change - a difference of nearly 6,000 vehicles. While that doesn’t seem like much, that’s at minimum $450M in sales revenue ($75,000 starting price x 6,000). The Model 3, on the other hand, makes that seem like a drop in the hat, with its difference of nearly 40,000 vehicles - costing Tesla a potential revenue of $1,760,000,000 - $1.76B. That’s a lot of 0’s, assuming everyone bought a Long Range RWD variant.
Sales Up In Other Regions
What’s interesting is that why Tesla’s sales are drastically lower in the US in 2024, they remain practically unchanged at the global level, meaning that other regions were actually up, year-over-year. In 2024 Tesla delivered 1.79 million vehicles globally, compared to 1.81 million in 2023.
Cybertruck
Overall, these lower sales in the United States have had a fairly significant impact on the company - but on the flip side, sales of the Cybertruck are fantastic news for Tesla. The Cybertruck is the 5th best-selling EV in the U.S. In fact, it sold better than the R1T and the Ford F-150 Lightning - which is the most “normal” EV truck anyone could buy. It is also the best-selling vehicle at or above the $100,000 USD price mark - a feat that isn’t easily achieved, especially as people have been more reticent to spend in difficult economic times.
The Model S and Model X
Ok, we’ll say it upfront. The Model S and Model X sales are… disappointing. The Model X was out-sold by the Rivian R1S by 35% (26,934 vehicles vs 19,855) - which came as a surprise.
While the R1S is a fantastic vehicle, the Model X has long been Tesla’s halo vehicle - the gullwing doors, sharp lines, and sportscar-like performance make a statement no matter where you go. These vehicles compete in a similar market, but the R1S has a distinct advantage in being able to seat more people and store more luggage, which is likely the same reason the Kia EV9 also outsold the Model X.
When we compared the Model X and R1S, we found them both to be amazing vehicles - but the Model X’s big advantage was the versatility of the gullwing doors and the overall quality of software and tech compared to Rivian’s offerings.
Time for a Refresh
All in all, both Model S and Model X desperately need a refresh. Tesla said its “other models” in the 2024 production and sales numbers added up to 85,133. These are global sales and account for the Semi, Cybertruck, Model S and Model X. However, if we add up the U.S. sales figures for the Cybertruck, Model S and Model X, the total comes to 71,246. That means that nearly all “Other models” sales were sold in the United States, leaving only about 14,000 of these vehicles being sold in other markets.
The remaining difference mostly went to Canada - simply because Tesla doesn’t offer an RHD variant of either vehicle anymore. Buyers in other markets have to purchase LHD vehicles - which can make things as simple as going through a drive-through or parking stall an awkward experience with a passenger in the front seat.
Refreshing both vehicles is going to be something Tesla will have to do sooner or later - they’re starting to get dated pretty quickly, and people like to see new changes to their vehicles. This is probably the prime time to do so - with the Cybertruck’s new 800V High Voltage and Low Voltage Architecture enabling both faster charging as well as Steer-By-Wire - enabling Tesla to simply install the steering wheel where required, rather than needing to engineer a different variant of the vehicle.
While we’ve heard rumors of a minor refresh with ambient lighting and a bumper camera, this hasn’t actually materialized in the year since we heard it. We haven’t even seen any additional vehicles or engineering variants for either vehicle.
While we’re at it, let’s look closely at the Model S Plaid. Once upon a time, the S Plaid was the king of the track. It was pretty much an uncontested ruler, but today, that’s changed. The Model S Plaid - even with the Track Pack equipped, isn’t the king anymore. That title has been ceded to vehicles with newer technological advances that take their flagship sportscars' improvements seriously. After all, why would you buy the second or third fastest car when you can afford the absolute fastest?
We’re hoping Tesla puts the pedal to the metal here and brings forward a full refresh of both the Model X and Model S - one that cements them as part of Tesla’s flagship lineup of vehicles.
The Political Angle
Kelley Blue Book
While Elon’s involvement in politics isn’t something that is surprising - it does appear it has played a role in sales in the U.S. Even the Model 3 saw a sharp decline in sales, even after a recent refresh that provides a much better vehicle. The new Model 3 is a world above the Ford Mach-E, Ioniq5, and others, but somehow, those vehicles saw year-over-year sale improvements of 25%+ while the Model 3 was down 17%.
EVs have increased - but Tesla sales have seen a fairly sharp and drastic drop in 2024 - with the start of Elon taking his political stances. We don’t have a particular opinion on Elon’s politics - after all, to each their own - however, it is clear that he has isolated much of the left-wing political community in the United States - those who used to be Tesla’s staunchest supporters in the interest of an electric tomorrow.
Tesla Isn’t Going Anywhere
While Tesla sales may be down in the U.S. in 2024, we don’t expect this trend to continue long-term. This is a short-term issue in one region. Global sales remain high, where people aren’t as concerned with Elon’s political involvement. We also expect price and software to eventually win and sales will rebound in the U.S. during 2025.
We’re hoping that 2025 sees a more nuanced Elon who returns to bringing us awesome news about FSD, amazing advances in human spaceflight, and spectacularly wholesome news of healing paraplegia.
The good news is that sales outside of the U.S. don’t appear to have been affected. No matter how it turns out, we still know that Tesla and Elon both are going to be bringing some absolutely insane new engineering - with the next-gen model arriving sometime in 2025, Optimus beginning to take its first steps, and Starship landing on those tiny little chopsticks.
