Elon Musk recently clarified the process of becoming a Full Self Driving beta tester. At midnight, Friday, October 15th, Tesla is planning to recruit 1,000 drivers a day into the beta tester program. He's not going to pay us. Why should he? So many of us are perfectly willing to do it for free. Just keep in mind, even though this is volunteer work, you don't get to take a tax deduction for your mileage because Tesla isn't a 501c3 tax-exempt organization.
There are probably a million Teslas on the road in the US according to Good Car, Bad Car.
According to a survey in Electrek, around 21% of Teslas have FSD.
That leaves around 210,000 Teslas that are eligible. Of those, we can guess that probably half of them are driven by people who may not be aware of the FSD Beta or are not interested in testing it. So I estimate that only 105,000 people pushed the button. I suspect that the actual number is way less than that.
So now, let's think about the scoring system. Elon has said that you'd likely require a score of 100 to get the beta in the first few days, and that Tesla would slowly lower the score required from there.
He probably has a floor value, a score that's too low to get into the program. The driving scores are probably distributed in a normal bell-shaped distribution curve just like heights, weights, and IQ levels. Elon will want to recruit only the safest drivers, which could mean that they're looking at drivers who are above the mean. Those are the people he can depend on to WATCH THE FURSHLUGGINER ROAD and not crash into stopped emergency vehicles.
So, of the 105,000 people who pushed the button, only around half will be above the mean. That's around 52,500 people. Elon plans to onboard 1,000 people a day. So, if Tesla continues adding 1,000 drivers a day and your score is in the top half, you can count on getting the software within eight weeks of the start of the onboarding process.
Of course, it's no guarantee that Tesla will continue to release the beta at the rate of 1,000/day. They may open it up sooner if everything is going well or even slow it down if they need additional time to fix issues, but eventually everyone who paid for it will get it.
For the first time in quite a while, Tesla has increased the price of one of its vehicle offerings. The Model S Long Range and the Model S Plaid have both received a hefty price increase. However, not all is bad - as Tesla also added a new benefit for buyers.
Price Increase
The price increase for the Model S is $5,000 - currently only in the United States. This price increase will likely impact other markets, including Canada, in the coming days.
The Model S Long Range now starts at $79,990, while the Model S Plaid now starts at $94,990. The Model S and Model X now have the same starting price. Interestingly, that’s also the same pricing point for the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast Trimotor non-Foundation Series.
The vehicle configuration does not appear to have changed, so the new pricing is simply an increase rather than the addition or removal of features. Tesla previously cut the price of the Model S and Model X by 15% in 2023, so this could simply be an adjustment to ensure that the vehicle pricing stays in line with inflation and other factors.
Free Lifetime Supercharging
For those on the fence about ordering a Model S, Tesla has brought back Free Lifetime Supercharging when you order a new Model S on or after December 13, 2024. As always, Free Lifetime Supercharging is restricted to the buyer’s Tesla account and to that specific vehicle. It cannot be transferred to another vehicle or another owner after ownership transfer. It’s worth noting, that it also doesn’t exclude the owner from receiving Supercharger idle fees or congestion fees. There is currently no end date for this promotion.
There are currently no changes to the Model X, neither a price increase nor the addition of Lifetime Superchargering. However, when Tesla makes changes to one of their premium vehicles, it usually affects the other one as well. So be on the lookout for potential changes to the Model X offering in the coming days.
We’ve seen Tesla value Lifetime Supercharging at $5,000, so this falls in line with the price increase we’re seeing. It’s possible that Tesla will begin to bring back Lifetime Supercharging as a perk for buying into their more premium Model S and Model X cars, or this could be another temporary promotion to get buyers who are on the fence to go ahead and make their purchase while this promotion lasts.
Tesla recently showed off a demo of Optimus, its humanoid robot, walking around in moderately challenging terrain—not on a flat surface but on dirt and slopes. These things can be difficult for a humanoid robot, especially during the training cycle.
Most interestingly, Milan Kovac, VP of Engineering for Optimus, clarified what it takes to get Optimus to this stage. Let’s break down what he said.
Optimus is Blind
Optimus is getting seriously good at walking now - it can keep its balance over uneven ground - even while walking blind. Tesla is currently using just the sensors, all powered by a neural net running on the embedded computer.
Essentially, Tesla is building Optimus from the ground up, relying on as much additional data as possible while it trains vision. This is similar to how they train FSD on vehicles, using LiDAR rigs to validate the vision system’s accuracy. While Optimus doesn’t have LiDAR, it relies on all those other sensors on board, many of which will likely become simplified as vision takes over as the primary sensor.
Today, Optimus is walking blind, but it’s able to react almost instantly to changes in the terrain underneath it, even if it falls or slips.
What’s Next?
Next up, Tesla AI will be adding vision to Optimus - helping complete the neural net. Remember, Optimus runs on the same overall AI stack as FSD - in fact, Optimus uses an FSD computer and an offshoot of the FSD stack for vision-based tasks.
Milan mentions they’re planning on adding vision to help the robot plan ahead and improve its walking gait. While the zombie shuffle is iconic and a little bit amusing, getting humanoid robots to walk like humans is actually difficult.
There’s plenty more, too - including better responsiveness to velocity and direction commands and learning to fall and stand back up. Falling while protecting yourself to minimize damage is something natural to humans - but not exactly natural to something like a robot. Training it to do so is essential in keeping the robot, the environment around it, and the people it is interacting with safe.
We’re excited to see what’s coming with Optimus next because it is already getting started in some fashion in Tesla’s factories.
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