Elon Musk said back in December 2020 that a FSD subscription would be made available next year. He has recently said that it’s coming this month and that it won’t be tied to the wider release of the FSD v9 beta which is expected in May or June. You can probably guess why these two features have similar timelines as Tesla expects FSD v9 to help sell the FSD subscriptions. The new FSD v9 release is also expected to have brand new vector-space visualizations.
We’re now in May and the FSD subscription should be falling upon us any day now. In our initial reporting of the FSD subscription, we talked about why it was smart for Tesla to also offer a FSD subscription in addition to a one-time purchase package. You can read more about those reasons here, but they mostly have to do with the hefty price tag of $10,000, which is a tough pill to swallow for most and also that there are some instances where buying the FSD package outright doesn't make sense, for example if you’re leasing your car.
Here’s what to expect in Tesla’s announcement
The average new car length ownership in the US is 8.4 years. The FSD package currently costs $10,000 USD. So if you take the cost of the package and divide it by the length of car ownership, you get a price of $99/month.
Now, there are probably a few reasons why Tesla wouldn’t want to create a $99/month FSD option, even though it’s a very attractive price.
First, if Tesla were to release a $99/month option, they’d be sure to annoy a whole lot of loyal supporters who spent $10,000 up front when they bought their cars and only had a fraction of the FSD features available.
Secondly, Tesla would much rather you buy the FSD package up front instead of paying for it monthly. By doing that, not only do they have $10k to invest into resources right away, but they also essentially got you to commit to pay for FSD every month for 8-plus years.
So what is a good price? $149 seems plausible. For drivers who have leased their cars for three-years then it’d be a total cost of about $5,300 over the course of the three-years instead of their only other alternative right now, which is the full $10,000 package. This may tip the boat in Tesla’s favor for many.
You can certainly bet that Tesla is closely analyzing the percentage of buyers who currently buy the FSD package today and how many of those buyers they would lose if they were to offer a monthly subscription. The answer to that question lies in whether they would make more through FSD subscriptions than what they’d lose in upfront payments.
If we look at the possibility of a $199/month subscription then we’re looking at someone paying $7,200 over three-years, which seems just way too close to the full price of $10,000 to make sense. That’d be paying over $20k over that 8 year period.
Now, if Tesla were a traditional company, I would feel pretty comfortable with expecting a $149/month FSD subscription becoming available this month. But if there’s one thing that Tesla has taught us over the years, is that there is always a price early adopters pay.
The price of Tesla’s cars has dropped dramatically in some cases. Some folks paid more for an AWD Model 3 then what the Performance model ended up costing later on. Elon Musk has often commented on this; saying that technology gets cheaper and early adopters are often helping pave the road for the future.
Whether Tesla releases a $99/month or $199/month FSD subscription completely depends on how many buyers are buying the FSD package today. I have a feeling it’s rather low or Tesla wouldn’t be considering a monthly subscription in the first place.
As a reader has pointed out, it's possible that Tesla may require a minimum commitment in order to subscribe to FSD at $99/month. This could be used to prevent owners from only subscribing during roadtrips. It could also help offset the costs of any hardware needed to allow FSD, such as upgrading the car's Autopilot hardware from 2.5 to 3.0. Elon Musk has already said that the FSD subscription would cover any hardware needed. A minimum commitment could be one or two-years.
A FSD subscription has the advantage that it is not tied to a particular vehicle, you could subscribe to it in one vehicle, then switch it to another a year or two later. That may be the biggest issue early adopters will have who paid full price for FSD at $7,000 or $10,000. Tesla may allow a one-time transfer of the FSD license for these owners as this has become a popular topic that has yet to be addressed by Elon. It's also possible that Tesla may limit FSD subscriptions to personal use and they would not be able to be used for robotaxis in the future.
We expect Tesla to announce a FSD subscription as low as $99, or as high as $149, in the US very soon.
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Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is back in the spotlight, and this time it's showing off some impressive new footwork. In a pair of videos shared on X this week, Optimus demonstrated a surprising level of agility and coordination while dancing. The first demonstration had a precautionary safety cable, but the second demo was impressive without support.
Tesla has been making some astounding advances in Optimus’ unique FSD model, particularly through simulation and reinforcement learning. Optimus has come a long way since tripping over its own feet.
This first glimpse showed Optimus performing a simple series of dance-like movements. While there was a safety cable visible, indicating the relatively early nature of the test, the fluidity of the movements was noteworthy. Check out those feet—maintaining balance on two legs may be easy for humans, but it’s much harder for a robot as it shifts its center of gravity.
Milan Kovac, a member of the Optimus AI team, provided some additional context on this initial video. He mentioned that more was coming shortly, and the team has been hard at work. What’s key here is that he emphasized that the routine was entirely trained in simulation with reinforcement learning. He also mentioned that there are many optimizations and fixes already put in place for the sim-to-real training code. Finally, regarding the cable, he mentioned it's there in case of a fall and that it is not actually holding Optimus up directly.
Dance Baby, Dance
True to Kovac’s promise, the Tesla Optimus X account followed up with a second, more impressive video, declaring that it was just “getting warmed up.”
This time, Optimus engaged in a far more dynamic EDM-style dance, and crucially, without a safety cable or restraint. Optimus put on a good show of its balance, quicker movements, and an even greater range of dynamic motion, all untethered.
Murtaza Dalal, another Optimus AI team member, commented on this cable-free performance, stating, "As promised, the team is crazy fast :)" He pointed to the core methodology enabling such rapid progress: "Sim2real RL is the key to getting next level agile, dynamic motions. It’s also the key to precision and robustness."
Sim-to-Real Learning
The recurring theme from the Optimus team is the power of sim-to-real transfer using reinforcement learning. This approach involves training the AI model extensively in a simulated virtual environment, where it can learn complex behaviors (like walking, balancing, and now dancing) through trial and error at an accelerated pace. The best part is that it can all be done without risking damage to the physical hardware and done across multiple nodes of Tesla hardware. Imagine thousands of Optimus bots learning to dance all at once - except virtually.
Once the AI masters these skills in the simulation, the challenge lies in transferring that learning effectively to the real-world robot - which is the sim-to-real step.
These latest dance demonstrations suggest Tesla is making some fairly substantial strides in bridging that gap, allowing Optimus to translate simulated learning into real-world physical competence.
Rapid Development
While dancing may seem like a novelty, it serves as a compelling visual demonstration of Optimus’ advanced capabilities in balance, coordination, and dynamic movement - all essential for performing useful tasks in real-world environments. This progress builds on previous milestones, like Optimus learning to walk.
The "crazy fast" development pace lauded by Dalal indicates that Tesla is treating Optimus with the same iterative intensity it applies to its vehicles and FSD software. Each new demonstration, from sorting objects to walking and now dancing, offers a glimpse into a future where humanoid robots could play an important role in manufacturing, logistics, and eventually daily life.
The ability to quickly iterate and improve in simulation and then successfully deploy those improvements to the physical robot is crucial. While Optimus might not be ready for household chores just yet, its new dance moves are a clear sign that FSD is learning and evolving at an impressive rate.
A recent sighting at Giga Texas by drone operator and detail hound Joe Tegtmeyer has really caught our eye. A red Model Y was driving within the factory premises with its front and rear sections heavily camouflaged in Tesla’s standard black coverings. To top it off, there wasn’t just one, but two vehicles.
Tesla usually conceals vehicles when it has something to hide or test, and this timing suggests to us that a new variant of the world’s best-selling SUV is on its way. This leads us to two theories - a refreshed Model Y Performance or the anticipated, more affordable E41 Model Y.
Caught something interesting today … two heavily camouflaged cars driving on the W side of Giga Texas. Several viewers noted this in my short video on the autonomous drive.
— Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) May 14, 2025
The front fascia, headlights, and hood are almost entirely obscured, with similar coverings applied to the rear, hiding the taillight design and bumper. This is a classic practice to keep new design elements under wraps before an official unveiling, and this is exactly what we saw with the Model 3 Highland and Model Y Juniper projects. The rest of the vehicle, including the central body and roofline, appear fairly consistent with the current Model Y.
Refreshed Model Y Performance?
One compelling possibility is that Tesla is preparing for the launch of the refreshed Model Y Performance. This speculation gains traction when we look at the launch of the refreshed Model 3 Performance. The Performance variant launched several months after the Long Range AWD and RWD variants and came with a bespoke front fascia. That fascia included air ducts for improved aerodynamics and brake cooling, helping to differentiate it both visually and by performance from other refreshed Model 3s.
It stands to reason that Tesla is preparing to launch the refreshed Model Y Performance. The extensive covering on the front fascia could be hiding a more aggressive, aerodynamically optimized bumper and air ducts to match the Model 3 Performance.
More Affordable Model Y?
Alternatively, this mystery vehicle could be the prototype of the previously discussed affordable variant of the Model Y, known as E41. Tesla has been working on further cost reductions for its highest volume vehicle, which includes cost-cutting components and features, as well as working on manufacturing efficiencies.
Tesla is focusing on making its existing models, like the Model Y, more affordable. In this case, the camouflage might be concealing simplified exterior features designed to help reduce production costs. This could include a revised front-end design, along with different headlights or taillight assemblies. Tesla could even forgo the distinctive front lightbar, as well as the afterburner-style rear lightbar, if it contributes to worthwhile savings.
This would be a step beyond the recently introduced Model Y Long Range RWD, which improves the vehicle’s range and lower the price by $4,000.
For now, the identity of this camouflaged Model Y remains a mystery. The fact that it is out and about at Giga Texas suggests that whatever changes Tesla has incorporated are significant enough to warrant covering up the front and rear of the vehicle.
![Tesla Engineers Reveal How Optimus Learns—And Show Off Its Dance Moves [VIDEO]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/img/containers/article_images/optimus/optimus-dancing.webp/ac248a1cc95df69c081ac10d8aa8b274/optimus-dancing.jpg)
![Inside Tesla’s AI Genius: VP Ashok Elluswamy Talks FSD, AGI, and the Future [VIDEO]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/img/containers/article_images/2025/ashok_interview.png/0f2b3fb6e89a70255a0c6c31a2efa04f/ashok_interview.jpg)
