Musk Shares Tesla FSD Roadmap: What's in the Next FSD Update

Not a Tesla App

In a flurry of posts on X following the recent sightings of driverless Robotaxis on the streets of Austin, Elon has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap of Tesla’s upcoming changes for FSD in the coming year.

Musk shared details on two distinct new versions of FSD that are currently in development - one of which is coming soon and another that promises another leap in FSD’s abilities.

It’s a new version of software, but will merge to main branch soon.

We have a more advanced model in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, but still requires a lot of polishing.

That’s probably ready for deploy in a few months.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025

FSD Increase Parameters By 4.5x

While the Robotaxis running around Austin are identical to new customer vehicles, they’re not running the same FSD build on customer vehicles. These Robotaxi Model Ys are running a newer FSD build.

While the exact version of FSD is unknown, Musk said that it’ll be released to customers soon. However, more interestingly, he also shared details on a newer version that’s coming next.

The newer version will include a 4.5 times increase in parameters and better memory usage. Earlier this year, Ashok shared details that the [amount of] on-board memory is restricting context size, so these memory improvements presumably allow Tesla to increase the context size in this latest version of FSD.

Musk said that this version will also arrive to customers later this year. This 4.5 times model appears to be in a relatively early alpha stage. This jump in parameters is even larger than the “3X increase” that’s detailed in the Upcoming Improvements of the FSD V13 changelog. Other improvements listed in the FSD v13 changelog were a 3x context length improvement, audio inputs, improvements to reward predictions and false braking, and support for destination options when arriving at the destinations. However, it’s not clear whether any of these others are included.

It’s a new version of software, but will merge to main branch soon.

We have a more advanced model in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, but still requires a lot of polishing.

That’s probably ready for deploy in a few months.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025

What Increased Parameters and Context Length Mean

The increase in parameters allows FSD to understand the world with greater nuance, which in turn means smoother and more human-like decision-making and path planning. It also means FSD will become more capable of handling edge cases or inclement weather, a stressor noted by Tesla’s Executive team during the Q1 2025 Earnings Call.

Increasing the context length allows the vehicle to consider a longer history when making decisions. Context length and responsiveness are closely linked: a shorter context length enables quicker reactions, while a longer context length provides more informed decisions but introduces latency. The context length in terms of FSD is measured in seconds, where the vehicle uses just the past few seconds of video data to make a decision.

Retraining FSD

~4.5X increase in params should be ready for wide release later this year.

Super frugal use of memory bandwidth, caching exactly what is needed & squeezing microseconds out of everything are needed to maintain the frame rate.

And the whole system needs to be retrained.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025

A more powerful AI model requires more computational power, and Elon provided some more insights into what exactly that means for the Tesla AI team. Frugally using memory bandwidth and squeezing every last drop of performance from AI4’s hardware is necessary to maintain its ability to keep up with the environment around it.

Musk says that this new, larger FSD version will require Tesla to retrain FSD from the ground up. Tesla is already planning on expanding its compute nodes with a second Cortex Supercomputer cluster. It takes an astronomical amount of data, time, and energy to train FSD, and with a major update on the horizon, it seems like Tesla has been putting the lion’s share of compute into this new build.

FSD Timeline

Musk laid out a relatively rough timeline for these new FSD improvements. Remember, with all things Elon, two weeks could very well be two months.

Soon: The current, tried and tested build that’s running on Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet in Austin will be merged into the main public FSD (Supervised) build. This build will be the next major build for customers. This could be FSD V13.3. It’ll be a step up, but not as large as the next version.

Late 2025: The new 4.5X parameter model is slated for a wider release several months from now. We’ll tentatively call this FSD V14 - because it sounds like an entirely new version being built from the ground up.

This is a much-needed update from Elon and Tesla on where FSD is headed and when. It’s been more than eight months since the last Autonomy Roadmap in October 2024, even if these updates are encoded in “Elon Time.” 

The streets will change very rapidly.

Autonomous cars will be very common throughout the world in 2 to 3 years.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025

Licensing FSD

Elon also touched on the ultimate goals and the long-term business plan for FSD. With FSD already being considerably safer than the average human driver, alongside its superhuman reflexes and precision, Tesla will be well-positioned to license FSD.

Tesla AI/Autopilot could probably beat the best human around a track already.

Eventually, it really won’t be a contest at all. Human reflexes cannot match machines.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025

As FSD and the Robotaxi network become widespread and other autonomy solutions fail to materialize in a financially prudent fashion, other companies will naturally turn to Tesla for autonomy. 

It’s Tesla’s golden moment to do all it can to implement the dream that it’s been striving for for over a decade. 

With a new FSD version on its way to customers and a fully rebuilt version on the horizon, there’s a lot for everyone to look forward to.

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Tesla Plans Massive 10x Robotaxi Expansion: A Look at the Potential New Area

Not a Tesla App

With Tesla’s first major expansion of the Robotaxi Geofence now complete and operational, they’ve been hard at work with validation in new locations - and some are quite the drive from the current Austin Geofence.

Validation fleet vehicles have been spotted operating in a wider perimeter around the city, from rural roads in the west end to the more complex area closer to the airport. Tesla mentioned during their earnings call that the Robotaxi has already completed 7,000 miles in Austin, and it will expand its area of operation to roughly 10 times what it is now. This lines up with the validation vehicles we’ve been tracking around Austin.

Based on the spread of the new sightings, the potential next geofence could cover a staggering 450 square miles - a tenfold increase from the current service area of roughly 42 square miles. You can check this out in our map below with the sightings we’re tracking.

If Tesla decides to expand into these new areas, it would represent a tenfold increase over their current geofence, matching Tesla’s statement. The new area would cover approximately 10% of the 4,500-square-mile Austin metropolitan area. If Tesla can offer Robotaxi services in that entire area, it would prove they can tackle just about any city in the United States.

From Urban Core to Rural Roads

The locations of the validation vehicles show a clear intent to move beyond the initial urban and suburban core and prepare the Robotaxi service for a much wider range of uses.

In the west, validation fleet vehicles have been spotted as far as Marble Falls - a much more rural environment that features different road types, higher speed limits, and potentially different challenges. 

In the south, Tesla has been expanding towards Kyle, which is part of the growing Austin-San Antonio suburban corridor spanning Highway 35. San Antonio is only 80 miles (roughly a 90-minute drive) away, and could easily become part of the existing Robotaxi area if Tesla obtains regulatory approval there.

In the East, we haven’t spotted any new validation vehicles. This is likely because Tesla’s validation vehicles originate from Giga Texas, which is located East of Austin. We won’t really know if Tesla is expanding in this direction until they start pushing past Giga Texas and toward Houston.

Finally, there have been some validation vehicles spotted just North of the new expanded boundaries, meaning that Tesla isn’t done in that direction either. This direction consists of the largest suburban areas of Austin, which have so far not been serviced by any form of autonomous vehicle.

Rapid Scaling

This new, widespread validation effort confirms what we already know. Tesla is pushing for an intensive period of public data gathering and system testing in a new area, right before conducting geofence expansions. The sheer scale of this new validation zone tells us that Tesla isn’t taking this slowly - the next step is going to be a great leap instead, and they essentially confirmed this during this Q&A session on the recent call. The goal is clearly to bring the entire Austin Metropolitan area into the Robotaxi Network.

While the previous expansion showed off just how Tesla can scale the network, this new phase of validation testing is a demonstration of just how fast they can validate and expand their network. The move to validate across rural, suburban, and urban areas simultaneously shows their confidence in these new Robotaxi FSD builds.

Eventually, all these improvements from Robotaxi will make their way to customer FSD builds sometime in Q3 2025, so there is a lot to look forward to.

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Caught on Video: Tesla FSD Tackles a Toll Booth — Here’s How It Pulled It Off

@DirtyTesLa on X

For years, the progress of Tesla’s FSD has been measured by smoother turns, better lane centering, and more confident unprotected left turns. But as the system matures, a new, more subtle form of intelligence is emerging - one that shifts its attention to the human nuances of navigating roads. A new video posted to X shows the most recent FSD build, V13.2.9, demonstrating this in a remarkable real-world scenario.

Toll Booth Magic

In the video, a Model Y running FSD pulls up to a toll booth and smoothly comes to a stop, allowing the driver to handle payment. The car waits patiently as the driver interacts with the attendant. Then, at the precise moment the toll booth operator finishes the transaction and says “Have a great day”, the vehicle starts moving, proceeding through the booth - all without any input from the driver.

If you notice, there’s no gate here at this toll booth. This interaction all happened naturally with FSD.

FSD 13.2.9 pulls up to a toll booth, waits for me to complete my transaction, then pulls away without a gate. 😳 Incredible. https://t.co/OsH1YAY8Ty pic.twitter.com/9hWAbLNrVa

— Dirty Tesla (@DirtyTesLa) July 27, 2025

How It Really Works

While the timing was perfect, the FSD wasn’t listening to the conversation for clues (maybe one day, with Grok?) The reality, as explained by Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s VP of AI, is even more impressive.

It can see the transaction happening using the repeater & pillar cameras. Hence FSD proceeds on its own when the transaction is complete 😎

— Ashok Elluswamy (@aelluswamy) July 27, 2025

FSD is simply using the cameras on the side of the vehicle to watch the exchange between the driver and attendant. The neural network has been trained on enough data that it can visually recognize the conclusion of a transaction - the exchange of money or a card and the hands pulling away - and understands that this is the trigger to proceed.

The Bigger Picture

This capability is far more significant than just a simple party trick. FSD is gaining the ability to perceive and navigate a world built for humans in the most human-like fashion possible.

If FSD can learn what a completed toll transaction looks like, it’s an example of the countless other complex scenarios it’ll be able to handle in the future. This same visual understanding could be applied to navigating a fast-food drive-thru, interacting with a parking garage attendant, passing through a security checkpoint, or boarding a ferry or vehicle train — all things we thought that would come much later.

These human-focused interactions will eventually become even more useful, as FSD becomes ever more confident in responding to humans on the road, like when a police officer tells a vehicle to go a certain direction, or a construction worker flags you through a site. These are real-world events that happen every day, and it isn’t surprising to see FSD picking up on the subtleties and nuances of human interaction.

This isn’t a pre-programmed feature for a specific toll booth. It is an emergent capability of the end-to-end AI neural nets. By learning from millions of videos across billions of miles, FSD is beginning to build a true contextual understanding of the world. The best part - with a 10x context increase on its way, this understanding will grow rapidly and become far more powerful.

These small, subtle moments of intelligence are the necessary steps to a truly robust autonomous system that can handle the messy, unpredictable nature of human society.

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