Tesla FSD 12.4 has yet to go out to most eligible customers, but last night it took a big step toward achieving that. FSD v12.4.3 went out to the largest batch of FSD vehicles in North America so far, more than tripling the number of users on the latest Tesla FSD software.
Update: Another wave of FSD 12.4.3 just started going out this evening. This wave just started and it’s already the largest wave for this release. It’s estimated to be about 12% of FSD users.
Most vehicles with FSD in North America are now on update 2024.14.9 which includes FSD 12.3.6. However, these vehicles have been on this FSD version since it was first introduced with update 2024.3.25. About 25% of the Tesla fleet is on update 2024.14.9, which is almost exclusively vehicles that have bought or subscribed to FSD.
Before yesterday’s rollout, FSD 12.4.3 stood at about 1.3% of the entire fleet (not just FSD vehicles), but after yesterday’s release, about 3.3% of the fleet now has access to FSD v12.4.3. That appears to be about 10% of FSD users that now have access to FSD 12.4.3. If Tesla doesn’t see major issues with this wave, this could be the point where FSD 12.4.3 finally goes into wide release and becomes available to most users in the next week.
Roll Out and Eligibility
We should hopefully see another rollout of FSD 12.4.3 later today or tomorrow. This latest FSD release is update 2024.15.15, which means that it’s available to anyone on a 2024.14 update or earlier. Users who have recently subscribed or resubscribed to FSD and are on update 2024.20 won’t be able to receive FSD 12.4 or later until it becomes available on a branch that is higher than 2024.20.
Tesla doesn’t merge FSD software with the main Tesla branches often so historically speaking, it could be another month or even two before that happens.
With FSD 12.4, Tesla has not only removed the steering wheel nag when the cabin camera can clearly see the driver, but it has also introduced a new strike system. Tesla will now remove one strike from the vehicle’s record (strikes are shared for all drivers of the vehicle), for every week the drivers’ of the vehicle go without receiving an Autopilot strike.
However, with the release of FSD 12.4.3, Tesla is also resetting all vehicle strikes to zero so that drivers’ have a clean slate to start with.
Vision-Based Monitoring
In place of the steering wheel nag is the improved vision-based monitoring, which tracks the driver with the cabin camera. In update 12.4.2, Tesla specifically updated the release notes for vision-based monitoring to mention that the driver’s arms also need to be visible to the camera. Tesla also changed some language around when it uses the vision-based camera and when it relies on steering wheel torque.
Users who subscribe to FSD can sometimes pick whether they remain on the FSD track or the feature track of Tesla updates. If you subscribe to FSD and prefer to receive update 2024.20 instead of waiting for FSD 12.4.3, then you could let your FSD subscription lapse and Tesla will push update 2024.20 to your vehicle within a day. Keep in mind that your subscription needs to completely expire, not just be canceled.
The reason your vehicle remains on update 2024.14 is so that it remains eligible for FSD 12.4.3, however, when your FSD subscription expires, Tesla will send you the latest update your vehicle is eligible for. Right now that should be update 2024.20 for just about everyone. If you unsubscribe, you can immediately subscribe to FSD after you receive the latest update. However, doing so will mean that you won’t be eligible for FSD 12.4.3 or higher until the main FSD updates are based on a branch 2024.20 or higher, which may not be anytime soon.
Unfortunately, if you have bought FSD, then this isn’t an option for you. Hopefully, it won’t be long before another large wave of FSD 12.4.3 goes out.
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Tesla’s Giga Texas factory usually gives us the first site of Tesla’s upcoming products. We first saw the Cybertruck and Model Y castings here. With Giga Texas being one of Tesla’s largest factories, it’s logical that most products would originate here.
Tesla has also stated that it intends to manufacture the Cybercab, Semi, the next-generation vehicle, and Optimus at Giga Texas over the coming years. The affordable vehicle and Cybercab were originally intended to be manufactured at Giga Mexico, but the plans for that facility were waylaid by changes in economic policy.
Robotaxi Castings
These new castings were spotted by Joe Tegtmeyer, who regularly does drone flights of Giga Texas. Joe pointed out that these castings don’t look like the usual Model Y or Cybertruck castings usually seen outside Giga Texas.
With an eagle eye, @minusYCore on X also spotted some interesting text on the frames holding the castings up. In particular, the castings say “RTTX050” and “W68-RSF AS-CAST”. These could be interpreted as ‘Robotaxi Texas’ and ‘Rear SubFrame.’ The as-cast portion indicates that these particular castings haven’t been trimmed yet, according to the X user.
These castings are much flatter and appear to be a different size than the castings found elsewhere throughout Giga Texas, indicating that they are intended for a different product entirely.
It’s possible that these are the first castings used by Tesla to test their unboxed assembly process, which the Cybercab is expected to rely on. If you take a closer look at the video below, you’ll note that these new castings look very similar to the ones in the unboxed assembly video.
Interestingly, Tesla did say that they don’t intend to have the Cybercab available for customers before late 2026 or early 2027, but we’ll likely hear updated timelines as Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call tomorrow.
A more vertical look at the castings.
@JoeTegtmeyer
New Giga Presses
To top it all off, new parts for a Giga Press - the machine Tesla uses to make these castings - were also sighted in Texas. These machines are few and far between, and each one is highly specialized for the particular vehicle it produces. Seeing new parts coming in usually indicates that a new assembly line is under construction, or that changes are being made to an existing line to either expand it or update it.
There’s a lot happening and we will hopefully know more tomorrow evening.
Tesla’s first large-scale partner for the Tesla Semi - PepsiCo - is building out another Semi Megacharger site per a recent filing found by MarcoRP. Building out these Semi charging sites is expensive due to their much higher power output when compared to Superchargers.
Name Change
Interestingly enough, Tesla appears to have shifted its terminology recently, now often referring to the Semi’s high-power charging solution as Tesla Semi Chargers instead of the previously common "Megachargers." Regardless of the name, these chargers are crucial for the Semi. They’re designed to deliver 1.2 megawatts of charging power capable of adding hundreds of miles of range in roughly 30 minutes.
Frito-Lay Site
The new site detailed in the recent filing will be located at a Frito-Lay production plant on Hageman Road in Bakersfield, California. Permits were filed just a couple of days ago for the installation of eight Tesla Semi Charger stalls along with their associated electrical equipment.
This facility adds to PepsiCo's existing network of chargers, supporting the Tesla Semis operating out of their Sacramento facility, and highlights Bakersfield as the next expansion of the Semi’s operational area. Notably, this new Frito-Lay charging site is strategically located just five miles (approx. 8 km) away from a massive future public charging complex Tesla is planning on Kelton Way.
Kelton Way Charging Complex
Tesla’s planned charging complex in Bakersfield, which is just down the road, will feature 72 Supercharger stalls, as well as 18 Semi charger stalls. According to pre-permits filed last month, this site will be fairly large and accessible to both the public and Tesla’s partners.
A rendering of the Kelton Way site - with the Semi Chargers on the outside, and the Covered Supercharger site in the center.
@MarcoRPi1 on X
Tesla plans to develop a vacant plot right off the interstate into a large charging hub, which is now the second major public Semi Charger site we’ve heard about. For now, these sites will remain rare, but we expect that Tesla and its partners will be happy to expand them out further as required.
Carson Semi Charger Site
These Bakersfield developments – both the private Frito-Lay site and the large public Kelton Way hub will help lay out the necssary infrastructure for the Tesla Semi, much like the early days of Tesla’s Superchargers. Since Semi cannot be charged at a Supercharger site (the MCS plug is notably different than NACS), these sites are a must-have.
Tesla's first publicly accessible Semi Charger site planned near the Port of Long Beach in Carson, California, was one of the first signs of these types of Semi Charger facilities being established - and like Kelton Way, it also includes amenities for truck drivers. Tesla is also considering what long, medium, and short-haul truckers need for their stays at these sites.
As Tesla works to ramp up production of the Semi itself, the parallel expansion of dedicated, high-power charging infrastructure by both Tesla and its key partners are essential to making electric heavy-duty trucking a reality.
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