Tesla should’ve prioritized the next-generation mass-market vehicle ahead of the Cybertruck. As a disclaimer, I’m certainly not saying I’m smarter than Elon Musk, and I most definitely have the advantage of hindsight. I will also make this argument while wearing my Cybertruck t-shirt and awaiting my delivery notification.
There is no doubt that Cybertruck is a vehicle destined for the history books; Tesla achieved what it set out to do, throwing out the old truck design and making the future look like the future. But would the future be a little kinder to Tesla now if it prioritized the next generation model, the less expensive $25,000 car, over the Cybertruck?
This decision is worth a debate among enthusiasts and critics, weighing the potential benefits and drawbacks of focusing on a niche, high-profile product over a vehicle that will allow more people to drive an EV. This editorial delves into the pros and cons of Tesla's approach, examining the implications for the company's future and the broader EV landscape.
Pros of Prioritizing Cybertruck
Market Differentiation and Branding: The Cybertruck, with its bold design and robust features, positions Tesla uniquely in the pickup truck market, a segment that has featured the same design and has been dominated by gas-powered vehicles. This move not only strengthens Tesla's brand as a leader in innovation but also attracts a new demographic of consumers who value distinctiveness and performance.
Cybertruck hits different in Matte Black
Not a Tesla App
High-Profit Margins: Pickup trucks typically offer higher profit margins than smaller cars. By prioritizing the Cybertruck, Tesla can potentially boost its profitability, providing the financial flexibility needed to fund future projects, including developing and manufacturing the next-gen platform. This strategy has been Tesla’s game plan since the Roadster, which financed the development of the Model S, and the pattern repeated.
Early Advantage: Rivian and Ford held the electric pickup truck market alone until Tesla joined the party. Ford has since significantly reduced its production goals for the Lightning, and Rivian is struggling to produce at a rate that would compete with Tesla. Tesla can now set the standard for the sector as the company plans to deliver 250,000 a year and has over a million orders.
Cons of Delaying Next-Gen "Redwood"
Missed Opportunity for Mass Market Penetration: The next-gen that is rumored to have a codename of "Redwood" is anticipated to revolutionize not just vehicle design but, more significantly, the manufacturing process. Delaying its introduction until 2025 could mean missing the opportunity to lead the EV industry towards more accessible and affordable electric vehicles, potentially slowing the global transition to sustainable transportation. Remember, Cybertruck was first introduced in 2019.
Concept of the next generation car
Not a Tesla App
Competition Catching Up: The delay allows competitors, especially those in China like BYD, to consolidate their position in the affordable EV segment. As these companies expand their global footprint, Tesla's first-mover advantage in the mass-market EV space could diminish. BYD has already overtaken Tesla in EV sales thanks largely to its affordable small, compact cars.
Potential Impact on Mission Alignment: Tesla's mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy aligns more closely with making EVs accessible to the mass market. Prioritizing a high-end, niche product like the Cybertruck over a potentially revolutionary but more accessible vehicle could be a deviation from this mission.
Strategic Considerations
Innovation in Manufacturing: Elon Musk's emphasis on the revolutionary manufacturing system for Redwood suggests that Tesla is not merely delaying an affordable car but is rethinking the entire production paradigm. This could result in efficiencies and advancements that significantly lower the cost of EVs, making them more accessible on a global scale once the Redwood is introduced.
Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Goals: Tesla's strategy may balance achieving short-term financial and branding objectives with Cybertruck and laying the groundwork for long-term industry transformation with Redwood. The success of the Cybertruck could provide Tesla with the necessary resources and technological insights to support the ambitious goals of the next-gen vehicle.
Global Expansion and Market Readiness: The staggered focus allows Tesla to plan its global expansion strategically, ensuring markets are ready to introduce groundbreaking vehicles. By the time the Redwood is prepared for production, Tesla may have established a more substantial worldwide infrastructure and a more favorable regulatory and consumer environment for its adoption.
Tesla's decision to prioritize the Cybertruck over the next-gen car is a calculated risk that we can consider and debate—the company balanced market opportunities with long-term transformative potential. The success of this approach will depend on Tesla's ability to execute its ambitious plans for the Cybertruck while simultaneously advancing its revolutionary manufacturing processes. Ultimately, Tesla's strategies reflect a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities in leading the global transition to sustainable transportation.
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Tesla has begun to reach out to customers in the United States and is offering demo drives of the Cybertruck on an invite-only basis. @brandonhd on X shared the first invite image, and it looks like it's going out quite quickly to multiple locations that have Cybertrucks on display.
Up until now, display vehicles have been for just that – looking, but no touching. Some Tesla delivery centers and showrooms have also allowed viewers to take a seat inside and open it up, but most are still locked away behind the velvet rope.
It’s exciting to see that Tesla has begun to demo them – and it can only be so long until demo drives open up to everyone.
Advisor-led Demo
This Demo Drive is led by a Tesla Advisor – while you’re driving, the advisor will be in the passenger seat, walking you through the experience. They’ll explain steer-by-wire, off-road controls, and will introduce new-to-Tesla buyers to all the features that are currently available.
The list of locations so far for demo drives appears to be fairly limited, but we will hopefully see demo drives roll out throughout the United States, and eventually Canada too. Here is the current list of city/state locations that have seen demo drive invites.
Actually Smart Summon, the successor to Tesla’s Smart Summon feature, has been confirmed to be coming as soon as next month as per Elon Musk. Colloquially known as “ASS”, Actually Smart Summon is supposed to improve on the regular Smart Summon capabilities, which have historically used ultrasonic sensors (USS) to navigate parking lots.
We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon, and we’re quite excited about what other features will be unlocked once it finally shows up at our doorstep.
Vision-based Improvements
ASS is supposed to bring Smart Summon to vehicles that don’t have USS – using Tesla Vision. Most recently, Tesla has brought Autopark to vehicles without USS, and Vision-based Autopark has been a huge success. It is faster, more reliable, and smoother than the older USS-based solution. It can also park and maneuver in tighter locations.
Today, Smart Summon is sometimes useful at best, usually a party trick, or downright dangerous at worst. It’s excellent and best used in straight lines, where you have a clear line of sight of the vehicle, and can stop it if doesn’t see an obstacle.
I used Smart Summon today, just before writing this article – my 2022 Model Y (with USS) – did manage to show up just fine – in a straight-line location from where I was parked, after exiting the parking spot fairly cleanly. However, I’ve previously used Smart Summon and have had the vehicle turn towards obstacles, such as cart returns or curbs. Overall, it’s a sometimes-useful feature that has a lot of drawbacks right now.
Smart Summon is also restricted to a certain distance – and it's pretty small. The max distance is shorter than most parking lots, being only about 215 ft (65m). If you’re lucky enough to park close, it's very useful to bring your car right to you.
Actually Smart Summon
ASS will bring FSD V12-like capabilities to Smart Summon – the vehicle will primarily use Vision to drive toward you (or the location you’ve indicated). ASS has been supposed to be coming since about September 2022 and has seen many delays – we’re almost at the 2-year point today.
We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon being able to bring the vehicle – safely – right to you. ASS is also one of the key steps towards bringing some other cool features that Elon Musk has previously mentioned – Park Seek and Banish Autopark.
We’re also hopeful that Actually Smart Summon will increase the maximum range a vehicle can be summoned, because the current range is fairly small. Alongside Park Seek and Banish Autopark, we’re closing in on a Robotaxi-based future.
Park Seek and Banish Autopark
When the FSD v12.4 showed up, Elon also mentioned that going forward, vehicles would automatically park themselves when arriving in a parking lot – Park Seek – and that if you got out of the car at the entrance to a business, you could get it to automatically park itself in the parking lot – Banish Autopark. These are two features that are needed for Robotaxi to work – which itself is delayed to October 10th of this year. We’re looking quite forward to them – as in combination with Actually Smart Summon, Tesla has reached the cusp of vehicle autonomy.
A vehicle that arrives, driverless, at the location you’re at, then drives somewhere, parks itself there, and waits for you – is the definition of a Robotaxi.
While we’re likely to have to wait for Banish Autopark and Park Seek just a bit longer, Actually Smart Summon being around the corner is exciting! Gone will be the days of having to run out to your car when you forgot your umbrella – your car will just come right to you instead.
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