Tesla CEO Elon Musk has opened a can of worms with a four-word post on X. On January 13, he posted, “That would be nice.” The message popped up while Tesla shareholders, fans, critics, and haters discussed the company on the social media platform. Two days later, Musk added more details and context to the discussion.
Background and Context is Important
Unlike mainstream media outlets suggesting Musk went on an unprompted compensation rant, the CEO was merely further explaining himself to shareholders. On the 13th, an X user expressed concerns about Musk's apparent lack of Tesla engagement. Amy (_SFTahoe) highlighted that Musk hasn’t had a new incentive plan since completing his 2018 compensation milestones in 2022. Amy argued for significant goals and rewards for Musk, underscoring that mere share ownership isn't enough motivation and that Musk deserves a plan that matches his contributions and ambitions in AI, automation, and space exploration. That is when Musk chimed in with the four words.
Two days later, Musk gave more details about his arrangement with Tesla. He expressed his discomfort with his current level of influence in the company. Musk stated his preference for approximately 25% voting control within Tesla, arguing that this level of influence is substantial but not overwhelming. He mentioned, "I am uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI & robotics without having ~25% voting control. Enough to be influential, but not so much that I can’t be overturned." Vanguard controls more than 13% through its institutional and mutual fund holdings.
Holder
Shares
Date Reported
% Out
Value
Elon Musk
411,000,000
NA
13%
91,000,000,000 (est)
Vanguard Group Inc
225,940,011
Sep 29, 2023
7.11%
49,456,008,869
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund
84,006,460
Sep 29, 2023
2.64%
18,388,173,978
Vanguard 500 Index Fund
66,358,271
Sep 29, 2023
2.09%
14,525,161,898
Vanguard Growth Index Fund
23,413,536
Sep 29, 2023
0.74%
5,124,988,880
Vanguard Institutional Index Fund-Institutional Index Fund
18,528,798
Sep 29, 2023
0.58%
4,055,768,582
Share Structure and Compensation
Musk, who owns about 13% of Tesla, said he would consider building products outside Tesla unless he secures the desired voting control. He suggested a dual-class share structure as a potential solution but noted the challenges of implementing such a system post-IPO in Delaware. Musk's posts indicated no ongoing feud with the Tesla board, which he praised, and mentioned the delay in establishing a new compensation plan due to the pending Delaware compensation case.
Musk's focus on AI and robotics is a significant part of Tesla's future direction. He has touted the company's advancements in these areas, including developing the humanoid robot Optimus. Musk believes that AI and robotics are integral to Tesla's value, even more so than its automotive segment.
The Financial and Legal Context
Musk's statements come amidst financial and legal challenges. He sold a significant portion of his Tesla shares in 2022 to finance his acquisition of Twitter, which he renamed X. This sale reduced his stake in Tesla and his voting power. Additionally, Musk is involved in a lawsuit in Delaware over his previous compensation package, which is under scrutiny for its size and the influence Musk had in securing it.
I should note that the Tesla board is great. The reason for no new “compensation plan” is that we are still waiting for a decision in my Delaware compensation case. The trial for that was held in 2022, but a verdict has yet to be made.
As Tesla awaits the decision in the Delaware compensation case, Musk's desire for increased voting control remains a central topic. The outcome of this case could influence the future structure of Tesla's leadership and Musk's role in the company. With the Q4 earnings report approaching, Tesla's strategic direction in AI and robotics and Musk's influence will be scrutiny.
Moving Forward
Musk's efforts to balance his various roles at Tesla, SpaceX, and X continue to be a point of discussion. His leadership style, often characterized by ambitious goals and unconventional approaches, has both been praised and criticized in the public and financial spheres.
Despite focusing on voting control and compensation, Musk's ambition for Tesla goes beyond financial incentives. His vision for Tesla involves significant advancements in AI and robotics, aiming to position the company at the forefront of technological innovation. This perspective aligns with Musk's broader goals of advancing human progress through technology.
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Tesla recently showed off a demo of Optimus, its humanoid robot, walking around in moderately challenging terrain—not on a flat surface but on dirt and slopes. These things can be difficult for a humanoid robot, especially during the training cycle.
Most interestingly, Milan Kovac, VP of Engineering for Optimus, clarified what it takes to get Optimus to this stage. Let’s break down what he said.
Optimus is Blind
Optimus is getting seriously good at walking now - it can keep its balance over uneven ground - even while walking blind. Tesla is currently using just the sensors, all powered by a neural net running on the embedded computer.
Essentially, Tesla is building Optimus from the ground up, relying on as much additional data as possible while it trains vision. This is similar to how they train FSD on vehicles, using LiDAR rigs to validate the vision system’s accuracy. While Optimus doesn’t have LiDAR, it relies on all those other sensors on board, many of which will likely become simplified as vision takes over as the primary sensor.
Today, Optimus is walking blind, but it’s able to react almost instantly to changes in the terrain underneath it, even if it falls or slips.
What’s Next?
Next up, Tesla AI will be adding vision to Optimus - helping complete the neural net. Remember, Optimus runs on the same overall AI stack as FSD - in fact, Optimus uses an FSD computer and an offshoot of the FSD stack for vision-based tasks.
Milan mentions they’re planning on adding vision to help the robot plan ahead and improve its walking gait. While the zombie shuffle is iconic and a little bit amusing, getting humanoid robots to walk like humans is actually difficult.
There’s plenty more, too - including better responsiveness to velocity and direction commands and learning to fall and stand back up. Falling while protecting yourself to minimize damage is something natural to humans - but not exactly natural to something like a robot. Training it to do so is essential in keeping the robot, the environment around it, and the people it is interacting with safe.
We’re excited to see what’s coming with Optimus next because it is already getting started in some fashion in Tesla’s factories.
In a relatively surprising move, GM announced that it is realigning its autonomy strategy and prioritizing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) over fully autonomous vehicles.
GM is effectively closing Cruise (autonomous) and focusing on its Super Cruise (ADAS) feature. The engineering teams at Cruise will join the GM teams working on Super Cruise, effectively shuttering the fully autonomous vehicle business.
End of Cruise
GM cites that “an increasingly competitive robotaxi market” and “considerable time and resources” are required for scaling the business to a profitable level. Essentially - they’re unable to keep up with competitors at current funding and research levels, putting them further and further behind.
Cruise has been offering driverless rides in several cities, using HD mapping of cities alongside vehicles equipped with a dazzling array of over 40 sensors. That means that each cruise vehicle is essentially a massive investment and does not turn a profit while collecting data to work towards Autonomy.
Cruise has definitely been on the back burner for a while, and a quick glance at their website - since it's still up for now - shows the last time they officially released any sort of major news packet was back in 2019.
Competition is Killer
Their current direct competitor - Waymo, is funded by Google, which maintains a direct interest in ensuring they have a play in the AI and autonomy space.
Interestingly, this news comes just a month after Tesla’s We, Robot event, where they showed off the Cybercab and the Robotaxi network, as well as plans to begin deployment of the network and Unsupervised FSD sometime in 2025. Tesla is already in talks with some cities in California and Texas to launch Robotaxi in 2025.
GM Admits Tesla Has the Right Strategy
As part of the business call following the announcement, GM admitted that Tesla’s end-to-end and Vision-based approach towards autonomy is the right strategy. While they say Cruise started down that path, they’re putting aside their goals towards fully autonomous vehicles for now and focusing on introducing that tech in Super Cruise instead.
NEWS: GM just admitted that @Tesla’s end-to-end approach to autonomy is the right strategy.
“That’s where the industry is pivoting. Cruise had already started making headway down that path. We are moving to a foundation model and end-to-end approach going forward.” pic.twitter.com/ACs5SFKUc3
With GM now focusing on Super Cruise, they’ll put aside autonomy and instead focus solely on ADAS features to relieve driver stress and improve safety. While those are positive goals that will benefit all road users, full autonomy is really the key to removing the massive impact that vehicle accidents have on society today.
In addition, Super Cruise is extremely limited, cannot brake for traffic controls, and doesn’t work in adverse conditions - even rain. It can only function when lane markings are clear, there are no construction zones, and there is a functional web connection.
The final key to the picture is that the vehicle has to be on an HD-mapped and compatible highway - essentially locking Super Cruise to wherever GM has time to spend mapping, rather than being functional anywhere in a general sense, like FSD or Autopilot.
Others Impressed - Licensing FSD
Interestingly, some other manufacturers have also weighed into the demise of Cruise. BMW, in a now-deleted post, said that a demo of Tesla’s FSD is “very impressive.” There’s a distinct chance that BMW and other manufacturers are looking to see what Tesla does next.
BMW chimes in on a now-deleted post. The Internet is forever, BMW!
Not a Tesla App
It seems that FSD has caught their eyes after We, Robot - and that the demonstrations of FSD V13.2 online seem to be the pivot point. At the 2024 Shareholder Meeting earlier in the year, Elon shared the fact that several manufacturers had reached out, looking to understand what was required to license FSD from Tesla.
There is a good chance 2025 will be the year we’ll see announcements of the adoption of FSD by legacy manufacturers - similar to how we saw the surprise announcements of the adoption of the NACS charging standard.